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A few months back before C-USA got picked over by the AAC and Sun Belt, The Athletic released their rankings for C-USA. Most on the board took issue with the results, but one category appears to have been very accurate. The rankings accurately predicted which teams were going to be poached. The "Conference Realignment Likelihood" was predicted to be... (new conference in bold)

1. UAB (AAC)
2. UNT (AAC)
3. Charlotte (AAC)
4. ODU (Sun Belt)
5. UTSA (AAC)
6. FAU (AAC)
7. Marshall (Sun Belt)
8. Rice (Rice)
9. Southern Miss (Sun Belt)
10. WKU
11. LA Tech
12. UTEP
13. MTSU
14. FIU

The only anomally in their prediction is #8 Rice being taken by the AAC over #4 ODU. But, being that the AAC lost Houston and Rice is an elite academic university explains the variation. Many took issue with these results but looking back these professionals in the industry seemed to know their business.

[Image: CUSA-rankings-social-copy-1536x971.png]
Professionals were right. I think the AAC got it wrong and will be the biggest loser in realignment, but we will see. Went for markets, not teams with a history of winning. While CUSA lost a little, they got rid of some teams that had not been good in years.
(02-17-2022 11:56 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ]...
8. Rice (Rice)
...

Rice Rice baby, too cold, too cold
(02-18-2022 01:05 AM)sstaedtler88 Wrote: [ -> ]Professionals were right. I think the AAC got it wrong and will be the biggest loser in realignment, but we will see. Went for markets, not teams with a history of winning. While CUSA lost a little, they got rid of some teams that had not been good in years.
I mean 3 of the teams have won the last 5 football titles in cusa. But yeah just markets.

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(02-18-2022 12:50 PM)Ragu Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2022 01:05 AM)sstaedtler88 Wrote: [ -> ]Professionals were right. I think the AAC got it wrong and will be the biggest loser in realignment, but we will see. Went for markets, not teams with a history of winning. While CUSA lost a little, they got rid of some teams that had not been good in years.
I mean 3 of the teams have won the last 5 football titles in cusa. But yeah just markets.

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You can't look at who they picked and didn't pick and not see that market size was the primary factor.

You take 6/14 teams, and assuming the larger market schools have all those extra resources from being in the large market, and of course you're going to get some actual on-field quality as well. But, that seems to be largely coincidental to their primary selection criteria. I'm sure they'd rather have big market and some on-field upside, but it sure looks like that second part is just lagniappe.
(02-18-2022 01:19 PM)inutech Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2022 12:50 PM)Ragu Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2022 01:05 AM)sstaedtler88 Wrote: [ -> ]Professionals were right. I think the AAC got it wrong and will be the biggest loser in realignment, but we will see. Went for markets, not teams with a history of winning. While CUSA lost a little, they got rid of some teams that had not been good in years.
I mean 3 of the teams have won the last 5 football titles in cusa. But yeah just markets.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

You can't look at who they picked and didn't pick and not see that market size was the primary factor.

You take 6/14 teams, and assuming the larger market schools have all those extra resources from being in the large market, and of course you're going to get some actual on-field quality as well. But, that seems to be largely coincidental to their primary selection criteria. I'm sure they'd rather have big market and some on-field upside, but it sure looks like that second part is just lagniappe.
FIU, Georgia state and ODU weren't picked. The first two have bigger markets by far than many picked.

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2020-21 Directors' Cup Standings*

88 Rice (AAC)
98 Charlotte (AAC)
112 WKU
113 Marshall (SB)
145 LaTech
145 ODU (SB)
150 MTSU
173 So Miss (SB)
174 North Texas (AAC)
195 UTSA (AAC)
210 UAB (AAC)
255 FAU (AAC)
255 FIU
297 UTEP


*COVID affected
(02-18-2022 01:05 AM)sstaedtler88 Wrote: [ -> ]Professionals were right. I think the AAC got it wrong and will be the biggest loser in realignment, but we will see. Went for markets, not teams with a history of winning. While CUSA lost a little, they got rid of some teams that had not been good in years.

Yes. These rankings were compiled from the comments of actual athletic directors... The same AD's that decide which programs get invitations when realignment occurs.

You should read their comments. It is enlightening as to how they view programs and what they value and what they don't. It isn't just about markets. Facilities, investment, budgets, resources, and support of the university leadership are repeated over and over in reference to the teams that scored high the "Conference Realignment Likelihood" topic.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/a...Comparison
I look at all of this thru Blue tinted Glasses. The Athletic's CUSA Power Ranking is just BS. There is no way (and has never been) any way that Middle Tennessee is 13th out of the current 14 CUSA programs. There are some really big deficiencies at MT. But excluding our abysmal performances during the 2018 thru 2020 time frame in FB, MBB, and Baseball; I'd rank us in the Top 4 or 5 across the Board. BTW, MT had no desire to go back to the Sun Belt 05-nono and the only reason AAC did not reach out is because Memphis is still there. Finally, CUSA 4.0 is gonna be just fine!!!
(02-19-2022 09:27 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]excluding our abysmal performances during the 2018 thru 2020 time frame in FB, MBB, and Baseball

Other than that, huh?
(02-19-2022 09:27 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]BTW, MT had no desire to go back to the Sun Belt 05-nono and the only reason AAC did not reach out is because Memphis is still there. Finally, CUSA 4.0 is gonna be just fine!!!

I cannot imagine we would have turned down a SBC invite had we gotten one.
(02-19-2022 10:48 AM)inutech Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 09:27 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]excluding our abysmal performances during the 2018 thru 2020 time frame in FB, MBB, and Baseball

Other than that, huh?

On the one hand, that's just three years. On the other that's about a third of the time we've been in CUSA.

I don't disagree with him that we should expect to be higher on that list, I also don't disagree that it is what it is and I'm not surprised to be where we are.
(02-19-2022 09:27 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]I look at all of this thru Blue tinted Glasses. The Athletic's CUSA Power Ranking is just BS. There is no way (and has never been) any way that Middle Tennessee is 13th out of the current 14 CUSA programs. There are some really big deficiencies at MT. But excluding our abysmal performances during the 2018 thru 2020 time frame in FB, MBB, and Baseball; I'd rank us in the Top 4 or 5 across the Board. BTW, MT had no desire to go back to the Sun Belt 05-nono and the only reason AAC did not reach out is because Memphis is still there. Finally, CUSA 4.0 is gonna be just fine!!!

No. Memphis is over 200 miles away from Murfreesboro. That isn't what kept MT out of the AAC. UNT is only 39 miles from SMU, and the AAC still took took North Texas.

These AD's explained exactly why they value the programs that were taken. Just go read the comments in the link I posted.
(02-19-2022 03:00 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 09:27 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]I look at all of this thru Blue tinted Glasses. The Athletic's CUSA Power Ranking is just BS. There is no way (and has never been) any way that Middle Tennessee is 13th out of the current 14 CUSA programs. There are some really big deficiencies at MT. But excluding our abysmal performances during the 2018 thru 2020 time frame in FB, MBB, and Baseball; I'd rank us in the Top 4 or 5 across the Board. BTW, MT had no desire to go back to the Sun Belt 05-nono and the only reason AAC did not reach out is because Memphis is still there. Finally, CUSA 4.0 is gonna be just fine!!!

No. Memphis is over 200 miles away from Murfreesboro. That isn't what kept MT out of the AAC. UNT is only 39 miles from SMU, and the AAC still took took North Texas.

These AD's explained exactly why they value the programs that were taken. Just go read the comments in the link I posted.

I don't disagree we needed to do more and may not have gotten in even if Memphis weren't there, but just because SMU is okay with sharing a conference with UNT doesn't mean Memphis is okay with sharing a conference with MT.

Can't point you to any definitive proof, but it's been long said that Memphis would never support us joining their conference. We would never move from SBC to CUSA without Memphis leaving and we'd never get a Big East/AAC invite without Memphis leaving. FWIW we did join CUSA immediately upon Memphis's departure.
(02-19-2022 05:03 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 03:00 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 09:27 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]I look at all of this thru Blue tinted Glasses. The Athletic's CUSA Power Ranking is just BS. There is no way (and has never been) any way that Middle Tennessee is 13th out of the current 14 CUSA programs. There are some really big deficiencies at MT. But excluding our abysmal performances during the 2018 thru 2020 time frame in FB, MBB, and Baseball; I'd rank us in the Top 4 or 5 across the Board. BTW, MT had no desire to go back to the Sun Belt 05-nono and the only reason AAC did not reach out is because Memphis is still there. Finally, CUSA 4.0 is gonna be just fine!!!

No. Memphis is over 200 miles away from Murfreesboro. That isn't what kept MT out of the AAC. UNT is only 39 miles from SMU, and the AAC still took took North Texas.

These AD's explained exactly why they value the programs that were taken. Just go read the comments in the link I posted.

I don't disagree we needed to do more and may not have gotten in even if Memphis weren't there, but just because SMU is okay with sharing a conference with UNT doesn't mean Memphis is okay with sharing a conference with MT.

Can't point you to any definitive proof, but it's been long said that Memphis would never support us joining their conference. We would never move from SBC to CUSA without Memphis leaving and we'd never get a Big East/AAC invite without Memphis leaving. FWIW we did join CUSA immediately upon Memphis's departure.

For about 100 years SMU has looked down at UNT. I know many of their fans still do. But, UNT won over SMU's president (and I'm assuming BOR). He is the one that called the UNT president and informed him UNT would be added to the AAC. He said, and I'm paraphrasing..."UNT is ready to move up".

Fans are fans. But, the administrators have to look at the business end of their universities. In my opinion it's all about building the facilities, funding the department, cultivating the business sponsorships/donors, & yes markets too.
(02-19-2022 07:47 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 05:03 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 03:00 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 09:27 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]I look at all of this thru Blue tinted Glasses. The Athletic's CUSA Power Ranking is just BS. There is no way (and has never been) any way that Middle Tennessee is 13th out of the current 14 CUSA programs. There are some really big deficiencies at MT. But excluding our abysmal performances during the 2018 thru 2020 time frame in FB, MBB, and Baseball; I'd rank us in the Top 4 or 5 across the Board. BTW, MT had no desire to go back to the Sun Belt 05-nono and the only reason AAC did not reach out is because Memphis is still there. Finally, CUSA 4.0 is gonna be just fine!!!

No. Memphis is over 200 miles away from Murfreesboro. That isn't what kept MT out of the AAC. UNT is only 39 miles from SMU, and the AAC still took took North Texas.

These AD's explained exactly why they value the programs that were taken. Just go read the comments in the link I posted.

I don't disagree we needed to do more and may not have gotten in even if Memphis weren't there, but just because SMU is okay with sharing a conference with UNT doesn't mean Memphis is okay with sharing a conference with MT.

Can't point you to any definitive proof, but it's been long said that Memphis would never support us joining their conference. We would never move from SBC to CUSA without Memphis leaving and we'd never get a Big East/AAC invite without Memphis leaving. FWIW we did join CUSA immediately upon Memphis's departure.

For about 100 years SMU has looked down at UNT. I know many of their fans still do. But, UNT won over SMU's president (and I'm assuming BOR). He is the one that called the UNT president and informed him UNT would be added to the AAC. He said, and I'm paraphrasing..."UNT is ready to move up".

Fans are fans. But, the administrators have to look at the business end of their universities. In my opinion it's all about building the facilities, funding the department, cultivating the business sponsorships/donors, & yes markets too.

For what it's worth when you say it's also about markets, you're right. Middle Tennessee is in the 30th ranked Media Market in the US. It's also about how the university is promoted, self- promoted, and received. Admittedly, MT has done an awful job promoting its athletic program or turning heads of media folks in our direction over the last 20 years! The second biggest college in the state should and must do better in that regard regardless of future conference affiliation
Loki - You know who finished 72nd in those Learfield Cup Standings? The school that the CUSA West schools rejected in the Marshall/ODU/JMU proposal.

SSJ - If you think the SMU folks aren't still looking down their noses at Denton then you aren't paying attention.
(02-21-2022 09:23 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 07:47 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 05:03 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 03:00 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2022 09:27 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote: [ -> ]I look at all of this thru Blue tinted Glasses. The Athletic's CUSA Power Ranking is just BS. There is no way (and has never been) any way that Middle Tennessee is 13th out of the current 14 CUSA programs. There are some really big deficiencies at MT. But excluding our abysmal performances during the 2018 thru 2020 time frame in FB, MBB, and Baseball; I'd rank us in the Top 4 or 5 across the Board. BTW, MT had no desire to go back to the Sun Belt 05-nono and the only reason AAC did not reach out is because Memphis is still there. Finally, CUSA 4.0 is gonna be just fine!!!

No. Memphis is over 200 miles away from Murfreesboro. That isn't what kept MT out of the AAC. UNT is only 39 miles from SMU, and the AAC still took took North Texas.

These AD's explained exactly why they value the programs that were taken. Just go read the comments in the link I posted.

I don't disagree we needed to do more and may not have gotten in even if Memphis weren't there, but just because SMU is okay with sharing a conference with UNT doesn't mean Memphis is okay with sharing a conference with MT.

Can't point you to any definitive proof, but it's been long said that Memphis would never support us joining their conference. We would never move from SBC to CUSA without Memphis leaving and we'd never get a Big East/AAC invite without Memphis leaving. FWIW we did join CUSA immediately upon Memphis's departure.

For about 100 years SMU has looked down at UNT. I know many of their fans still do. But, UNT won over SMU's president (and I'm assuming BOR). He is the one that called the UNT president and informed him UNT would be added to the AAC. He said, and I'm paraphrasing..."UNT is ready to move up".

Fans are fans. But, the administrators have to look at the business end of their universities. In my opinion it's all about building the facilities, funding the department, cultivating the business sponsorships/donors, & yes markets too.

For what it's worth when you say it's also about markets, you're right. Middle Tennessee is in the 30th ranked Media Market in the US. It's also about how the university is promoted, self- promoted, and received. Admittedly, MT has done an awful job promoting its athletic program or turning heads of media folks in our direction over the last 20 years! The second biggest college in the state should and must do better in that regard regardless of future conference affiliation

You are right. I had no idea MT was the second largest university in the state of Tennessee. Personally, I think MT could be a prime candidate when the next round happens, but I guess it all depends on how MT invests in their athletics moving forward.
(02-21-2022 11:10 AM)SlyFox Wrote: [ -> ]Loki - You know who finished 72nd in those Learfield Cup Standings? The school that the CUSA West schools rejected in the Marshall/ODU/JMU proposal.

SSJ - If you think the SMU folks aren't still looking down their noses at Denton then you aren't paying attention.

Many of their sports fans and ignorant alum absolutely look down on us. In academics it's a little different. Most universities have areas where they excel, but no university excels at everything.

I earned my degrees in Fine Art at UNT for two reasons. First, because they awarded me a fellowship, meaning the university paid me to be in their Fine Arts program. I didn't spend a dime on college. And second, because their Fine Arts degree is respected nationally. I never considered going to SMU. SMU's Fine Arts programs are ranked #135 in the country. UNT holds a national ranking of #42. In the state of Texas only the University of Texas has a higher ranked Arts program, but I had no interest in moving to Austin. And yes, I make a very comfortable living with my art degrees.

https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-sch...s-rankings
(02-18-2022 03:40 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote: [ -> ]2020-21 Directors' Cup Standings*

88 Rice (AAC)
98 Charlotte (AAC)
112 WKU
113 Marshall (SB)
145 LaTech
145 ODU (SB)
150 MTSU
173 So Miss (SB)
174 North Texas (AAC)
195 UTSA (AAC)
210 UAB (AAC)
255 FAU (AAC)
255 FIU
297 UTEP


*COVID affected

clt says Charlotte and rice were AAC locks
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