For those of you with an espn+ sub (and if you don’t have one, you should):
https://www.espn.com/college-football/in...tions-2022
JMU checks in at #90 in our first ever FBS ranking.
Others of note:
Louisville 29
Marshall 56
App state 60
Louisiana 72
Coastal 73
Georgia st 75
Ecu 81
Troy 93
ODU 95
Southern miss 98
Middle Tennessee 104
Ga southern 105
South Alabama 107
Texas st 118
Arkansas st 121
UL Monroe 130
141 days until official SBC. 205 days until game 1.
Also from that article:
Quote:Sun Belt: No. 60 Appalachian State, No. 72 Louisiana, No. 73 Coastal Carolina. These three programs are all dealing with quite a bit of turnover, and that could open the door for a usurper like No. 75 Georgia State. Also, James Madison begins its FBS expedition with an extremely respectable top-90 projection.
Ok l assuming this still shows Southern Miss, Marshall, and ODU in CUSA. If they don’t move this year, the ratings have the Sun Belt 9th out of 10 FBS conferences. When the big dogs leave the American in a couple of years and the CUSA is depleted (this year or next year), the Sun Belt may have a chance to move up and be the 8th or 7th best conference. A lot will be incumbent on JMU and the other 3 new members elevating the overall conference.
The Sun Belt is who we thought they were. There is no reason JMU can’t immediately be successful after the transition year. Looks like the Dukes will be favored against 60% of the league even without improving any in the transition year.
That’s why OOC games have always been the bigger draw for me when moving up to FBS.
Of course, all the preseason ratings are conjecture. We’ll see what JMU looks like after one year of transition and have a good litmus test to determine if the Dukes have enough players to beat the bottom half and compete with the top half.
I am just happy to see JMU on a rankings list where we are finally on the same level.
I'd say that's a fair ranking for us as a transition. I believe we will end the season higher than that, but that's a fair start.
It's still a bit strange to think of JMU as FBS finally, but it's something I'm really enjoying getting used to. It'll probably take some time for the casual fan to recognize that we aren't FCS (or D-II) any more, but I don't care.
If we can win a few FBS games and keep the games close with our conference foes, I will feel really good about our next few years.
(02-09-2022 01:46 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]Ok l assuming this still shows Southern Miss, Marshall, and ODU in CUSA. If they don’t move this year, the ratings have the Sun Belt 9th out of 10 FBS conferences. When the big dogs leave the American in a couple of years and the CUSA is depleted (this year or next year), the Sun Belt may have a chance to move up and be the 8th or 7th best conference. A lot will be incumbent on JMU and the other 3 new members elevating the overall conference.
The Sun Belt is who we thought they were. There is no reason JMU can’t immediately be successful after the transition year. Looks like the Dukes will be favored against 60% of the league even without improving any in the transition year.
That’s why OOC games have always been the bigger draw for me when moving up to FBS.
Of course, all the preseason ratings are conjecture. We’ll see what JMU looks like after one year of transition and have a good litmus test to determine if the Dukes have enough players to beat the bottom half and compete with the top half.
There's no question the Sun Belt will jump CUSA. #6 will be a three horse race between MWC, AAC, and Sun Belt. These ratings have the AAC significantly higher than the other G5 conferences right now but they're gonna drop like a rock when UCF/Houston/Cincinnati leave. Sun Belt is the only one that'll be improving, hopefully pretty significantly. MWC and MAC should stay pretty consistent while CUSA and AAC will plummet.
Not sure how many out of conference G5's are out there more attractive to us than ODU, App, Marshall, Coastal. For ODU/App I'd say zero, the other two the list is pretty short. P5 out of conference is barely going to be more common than it already was. The conference schedule is definitely the big thing to look forward to.
I think that is the point of playing P5’s OOC. There will only be a handful of G5’s that anyone will pay attention to in the OOC, the rest will be like playing New Hampshire. Not in the nearby geography, not in alumni areas, decent teams but not noticeable on the radar.
Maybe we can get coach Klaes from Lacrosse to pump up the football schedulers. She has arranged a gauntlet in the OOC with a “play anyone, anywhere” approach. Kudos to her.
I think it is fair to say that half the Sun Belt conference games every year will be against the bottom feeders of FBS. The other half will be good games with some that could be great games if JMU can get to the level of an App State.
(02-09-2022 03:00 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]I think that is the point of playing P5’s OOC. There will only be a handful of G5’s that anyone will pay attention to in the OOC, the rest will be like playing New Hampshire. Not in the nearby geography, not in alumni areas, decent teams but not noticeable on the radar.
Maybe we can get coach Klaes from Lacrosse to pump up the football schedulers. She has arranged a gauntlet in the OOC with a “play anyone, anywhere” approach. Kudos to her.
I think it is fair to say that half the Sun Belt conference games every year will be against the bottom feeders of FBS. The other half will be good games with some that could be great games if JMU can get to the level of an App State.
The formula that we liked at UCF for OOC has been aim for 2 P5 (generally 1 road and 1 home), 1 G5, and 1 FCS.
We're technically open to anyone but in the last few seasons, we've favored staying local for the G5 spot (FIU and FAU) and same for the FCS spot (Bethune Cookman and FAMU) but those aren't hard set rules and we have played out or state GS and FCS teams.
(02-09-2022 03:00 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]I think that is the point of playing P5’s OOC. There will only be a handful of G5’s that anyone will pay attention to in the OOC, the rest will be like playing New Hampshire. Not in the nearby geography, not in alumni areas, decent teams but not noticeable on the radar.
Maybe we can get coach Klaes from Lacrosse to pump up the football schedulers. She has arranged a gauntlet in the OOC with a “play anyone, anywhere” approach. Kudos to her.
I think it is fair to say that half the Sun Belt conference games every year will be against the bottom feeders of FBS. The other half will be good games with some that could be great games if JMU can get to the level of an App State.
I understand your point, but perhaps scheduling women's lacrosse is a little bit different from FBS football.
Another difference is JMU women's lacrosse is a national champion and JMU is a good win. Even if JMU gets to the level of App State, it's still not comparable to P5 programs.
Plus another big difference is number of games. The more games you have, the more openings you have for teams. Also, in FBS football if a team loses to a team like us, their chances of a title are over. Not the case in lacrosse. That gets even tougher when we want a home game.
Some of our fans talk about scheduling like all it takes is to pick up the phone. It was tough enough to play schools when we were a good FCS team. I have to imagine things are only going to be tougher when we are a good FBS team trying to actually host.
I believe in JMU and their ability to schedule.
A little surprised to see Louisiana so low, given they were #16 in the final AP top 25 this year.
If one looks at the Massey composite score with new makeup of the AAC, the SBC would have had the strongest teams in the G5 the past two years.
SBC east will be very tough to win, and I expect we will see one or two SBC teams in the top 25 each year likely. JMU will be facing top 25 caliber teams on a regular basis IMO.
(02-09-2022 03:00 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]I think that is the point of playing P5’s OOC. There will only be a handful of G5’s that anyone will pay attention to in the OOC, the rest will be like playing New Hampshire. Not in the nearby geography, not in alumni areas, decent teams but not noticeable on the radar.
Maybe we can get coach Klaes from Lacrosse to pump up the football schedulers. She has arranged a gauntlet in the OOC with a “play anyone, anywhere” approach. Kudos to her.
I think it is fair to say that half the Sun Belt conference games every year will be against the bottom feeders of FBS. The other half will be good games with some that could be great games if JMU can get to the level of an App State.
Do you think the P5s will ever kick out the likes of Vanderbilt? Sooner or later, it'll be in their interest to lose the cupcake teams in favor of better games.
In any event, I think we'll eventually have ~50 super-powerhouse teams, and 50 good teams, and 50 also-rans. I think JMU would hold its own in the middle-50 but I would rather just say "meh" to the places like Penn State who are just not even in the same realm.
(02-09-2022 04:02 PM)JMad03 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-09-2022 03:00 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]I think that is the point of playing P5’s OOC. There will only be a handful of G5’s that anyone will pay attention to in the OOC, the rest will be like playing New Hampshire. Not in the nearby geography, not in alumni areas, decent teams but not noticeable on the radar.
Maybe we can get coach Klaes from Lacrosse to pump up the football schedulers. She has arranged a gauntlet in the OOC with a “play anyone, anywhere” approach. Kudos to her.
I think it is fair to say that half the Sun Belt conference games every year will be against the bottom feeders of FBS. The other half will be good games with some that could be great games if JMU can get to the level of an App State.
I understand your point, but perhaps scheduling women's lacrosse is a little bit different from FBS football.
Another difference is JMU women's lacrosse is a national champion and JMU is a good win. Even if JMU gets to the level of App State, it's still not comparable to P5 programs.
Plus another big difference is number of games. The more games you have, the more openings you have for teams. Also, in FBS football if a team loses to a team like us, their chances of a title are over. Not the case in lacrosse. That gets even tougher when we want a home game.
Some of our fans talk about scheduling like all it takes is to pick up the phone. It was tough enough to play schools when we were a good FCS team. I have to imagine things are only going to be tougher when we are a good FBS team trying to actually host.
I believe in JMU and their ability to schedule.
No doubt it’s different, but if you saw her presser she has a no fear attitude. We’ll see if the courage is there for the football team. This is in reference to Bourne saying in the press conference that he doesn’t want to play at Alabama or at Michigan.
Where I would say, why not?
One of Cincinnati’s big reasons for getting included in the playoffs was a road win over Notre Dame.
Keep in mind that 5 short years ago Cincy was 4-8 (3-8 FBS) and rated worse than FCS JMU.
Layer in the fact that JMU certainly has to schedule at least 5 years out in the FBS world.
No need to wait until you are good to schedule big P5 guarantee games.
And I agree that home games will be tough to get with any FBS team.
(02-09-2022 05:34 PM)94computerguy Wrote: [ -> ] (02-09-2022 03:00 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]I think that is the point of playing P5’s OOC. There will only be a handful of G5’s that anyone will pay attention to in the OOC, the rest will be like playing New Hampshire. Not in the nearby geography, not in alumni areas, decent teams but not noticeable on the radar.
Maybe we can get coach Klaes from Lacrosse to pump up the football schedulers. She has arranged a gauntlet in the OOC with a “play anyone, anywhere” approach. Kudos to her.
I think it is fair to say that half the Sun Belt conference games every year will be against the bottom feeders of FBS. The other half will be good games with some that could be great games if JMU can get to the level of an App State.
Do you think the P5s will ever kick out the likes of Vanderbilt? Sooner or later, it'll be in their interest to lose the cupcake teams in favor of better games.
In any event, I think we'll eventually have ~50 super-powerhouse teams, and 50 good teams, and 50 also-rans. I think JMU would hold its own in the middle-50 but I would rather just say "meh" to the places like Penn State who are just not even in the same realm.
No, the superpowers need teams like Vandy to take on the Ls, everyone needs a Homecoming Game type opponent.
Im surprised Bourne would say we don't want to play at Mich or Bama...was there any qualifier on that? Like.. "not in year 1"?
(02-09-2022 11:00 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote: [ -> ]Im surprised Bourne would say we don't want to play at Mich or Bama...was there any qualifier on that? Like.. "not in year 1"?
Mickey Matthews comments in the DNR article:
Quote:“That’s how unimportant football was,” Matthews said. “Could you imagine that happening now? … You had to share the stadium, you had to ask permission to practice. Football wasn’t very important when I took it over in ‘99.”
Point being, if JMU is highly competitive in the SBC, and there is movement towards expanding the CFP, I very much think JMU's thinking will further evolve. We need a couple years to get our feet wet. And even if this is JB's steadfast scheduling view, he has already been hinting at retirement in a few years.
We are full steam ahead on FBS. Fill up the stadium so they can justify expanding it, and I'm sure the caliber of teams visiting BFS will go up also.
We went from playing schools like Campbell, Towson and Weber to App St, Marshall and Georgia Southern nearly overnight. Let's enjoy the heck out of it, and build from there.
(02-09-2022 02:16 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote: [ -> ] (02-09-2022 01:46 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]Ok l assuming this still shows Southern Miss, Marshall, and ODU in CUSA. If they don’t move this year, the ratings have the Sun Belt 9th out of 10 FBS conferences. When the big dogs leave the American in a couple of years and the CUSA is depleted (this year or next year), the Sun Belt may have a chance to move up and be the 8th or 7th best conference. A lot will be incumbent on JMU and the other 3 new members elevating the overall conference.
The Sun Belt is who we thought they were. There is no reason JMU can’t immediately be successful after the transition year. Looks like the Dukes will be favored against 60% of the league even without improving any in the transition year.
That’s why OOC games have always been the bigger draw for me when moving up to FBS.
Of course, all the preseason ratings are conjecture. We’ll see what JMU looks like after one year of transition and have a good litmus test to determine if the Dukes have enough players to beat the bottom half and compete with the top half.
There's no question the Sun Belt will jump CUSA. #6 will be a three horse race between MWC, AAC, and Sun Belt. These ratings have the AAC significantly higher than the other G5 conferences right now but they're gonna drop like a rock when UCF/Houston/Cincinnati leave. Sun Belt is the only one that'll be imoroving, hopefully pretty significantly. MWC and MAC should stay pretty consistent while CUSA and AAC will plummet.
Not sure how many out of conference G5's are out there more attractive to us than ODU, App, Marshall, Coastal. For ODU/App I'd say zero, the other two the list is pretty short. P5 out of conference is barely going to be more common than it already was. The conference schedule is definitely the big thing to look forward to.
I'm of the same mind here, and I might even be a little more bullish on the SBC's long-term outlook. Geography and demographics are working against the MWC & MAC as the US population growth continues to be focused on the southeast and Texas. Those regions already produce a disproportionate amount of football recruits, and it's only going to accelerate.
The AAC is making a big bet on the Texas schools. UTSA has done an excellent job because they found the right coach - can that be sustained at a place that has little history? Hard to say. Rice is sneakily one of the hardest G5 jobs out there, and they've only had 6 winning seasons since the year 2000. North Texas is well-positioned in the DFW metroplex, but that's a job that requires the right person in charge. Littrell has done a nice job overall but it's been a little bit of a rollercoaster. SMU is probably best positioned to make some noise, as they have good facilities and big money backers willing to spend.
Not sold on the rest of the AAC additions either. Charlotte has money behind it but little evidence that they'll be able to make a dent as a G5 in big market. Same story with FAU, but probably less money. And while UAB has historically been a solid program, there are real issues with the financial support they receive from the state. Even with the whole saga that resurrected their football program after the decision to end football, there's real questions whether they'll continue to receive the support they need.
The AAC schools generally have higher overall athletic budgets, but the Sun Belt has rightfully received praise for adding members that have historically prioritized and supported football. Adding programs in states like Mississippi and Virginia opens up recruiting opportunities (no offense to our friends at Marshall in WV, just looking at the facts when it comes to recruiting) to an already talent-rich footprint. I think we could very well see the SBC as the #6 conference in the not so distant future.
I agree, Sun Belt would be my bet to win that three horse race. And it's not long before the AAC media deal is up if I remember correctly, I think 2025? Their media money is gonna take a major blow and they're needing their new members to improve quickly to lessen that blow. They're giving those members less money to work with in the meantime though.
Maybe their marketz strategy will work out, my bet is that they end up much closer to the old CUSA than the old AAC. Sun Belt will continue to improve with teams like GS turning things around and with adding Marshall and JMU. ODU and USM definitely have potential to turn things around and be a very positive addition in football too.
(02-10-2022 08:35 AM)H.U.S.T.L.E. Wrote: [ -> ] (02-09-2022 02:16 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote: [ -> ] (02-09-2022 01:46 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]Ok l assuming this still shows Southern Miss, Marshall, and ODU in CUSA. If they don’t move this year, the ratings have the Sun Belt 9th out of 10 FBS conferences. When the big dogs leave the American in a couple of years and the CUSA is depleted (this year or next year), the Sun Belt may have a chance to move up and be the 8th or 7th best conference. A lot will be incumbent on JMU and the other 3 new members elevating the overall conference.
The Sun Belt is who we thought they were. There is no reason JMU can’t immediately be successful after the transition year. Looks like the Dukes will be favored against 60% of the league even without improving any in the transition year.
That’s why OOC games have always been the bigger draw for me when moving up to FBS.
Of course, all the preseason ratings are conjecture. We’ll see what JMU looks like after one year of transition and have a good litmus test to determine if the Dukes have enough players to beat the bottom half and compete with the top half.
There's no question the Sun Belt will jump CUSA. #6 will be a three horse race between MWC, AAC, and Sun Belt. These ratings have the AAC significantly higher than the other G5 conferences right now but they're gonna drop like a rock when UCF/Houston/Cincinnati leave. Sun Belt is the only one that'll be imoroving, hopefully pretty significantly. MWC and MAC should stay pretty consistent while CUSA and AAC will plummet.
Not sure how many out of conference G5's are out there more attractive to us than ODU, App, Marshall, Coastal. For ODU/App I'd say zero, the other two the list is pretty short. P5 out of conference is barely going to be more common than it already was. The conference schedule is definitely the big thing to look forward to.
I'm of the same mind here, and I might even be a little more bullish on the SBC's long-term outlook. Geography and demographics are working against the MWC & MAC as the US population growth continues to be focused on the southeast and Texas. Those regions already produce a disproportionate amount of football recruits, and it's only going to accelerate.
The AAC is making a big bet on the Texas schools. UTSA has done an excellent job because they found the right coach - can that be sustained at a place that has little history? Hard to say. Rice is sneakily one of the hardest G5 jobs out there, and they've only had 6 winning seasons since the year 2000. North Texas is well-positioned in the DFW metroplex, but that's a job that requires the right person in charge. Littrell has done a nice job overall but it's been a little bit of a rollercoaster. SMU is probably best positioned to make some noise, as they have good facilities and big money backers willing to spend.
Not sold on the rest of the AAC additions either. Charlotte has money behind it but little evidence that they'll be able to make a dent as a G5 in big market. Same story with FAU, but probably less money. And while UAB has historically been a solid program, there are real issues with the financial support they receive from the state. Even with the whole saga that resurrected their football program after the decision to end football, there's real questions whether they'll continue to receive the support they need.
The AAC schools generally have higher overall athletic budgets, but the Sun Belt has rightfully received praise for adding members that have historically prioritized and supported football. Adding programs in states like Mississippi and Virginia opens up recruiting opportunities (no offense to our friends at Marshall in WV, just looking at the facts when it comes to recruiting) to an already talent-rich footprint. I think we could very well see the SBC as the #6 conference in the not so distant future.
You could insert a lot of schools in major markets where this is an issue. I don't understand why that's even a thing. There seems to be very little correlation between a school in a major market and success bringing that market into the fold.
CUSA's failed conference model was to get schools from major markets in the hopes of getting those markets. It didn't work. AAC is basically replicating that model. It won't work for them either.
The result isn't getting the market, it's getting the school's fans. Success and fan support means a million times more than the market.
(02-10-2022 09:52 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote: [ -> ]I agree, Sun Belt would be my bet to win that three horse race. And it's not long before the AAC media deal is up if I remember correctly, I think 2025? Their media money is gonna take a major blow and they're needing their new members to improve quickly to lessen that blow. They're giving those members less money to work with in the meantime though.
Maybe their marketz strategy will work out, my bet is that they end up much closer to the old CUSA than the old AAC. Sun Belt will continue to improve with teams like GS turning things around and with adding Marshall and JMU. ODU and USM definitely have potential to turn things around and be a very positive addition in football too.
The AAC deal runs through the 2031-32 season but I vaguely remember something about a look-in period where adjustments could be made. That being said, something isn't adding up because when the deal was first announced it supposedly had conference makeup clauses to protect ESPN. There's no way the deal can be worth the same after losing UConn, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston. So either Aresco hasn't publicly announced how they're patching the cracks behind the scenes, or there's some negotiation with ESPN going on. But I don't see how they could retain the same payout per team.
(02-10-2022 11:19 AM)space orange Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2022 09:52 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote: [ -> ]I agree, Sun Belt would be my bet to win that three horse race. And it's not long before the AAC media deal is up if I remember correctly, I think 2025? Their media money is gonna take a major blow and they're needing their new members to improve quickly to lessen that blow. They're giving those members less money to work with in the meantime though.
Maybe their marketz strategy will work out, my bet is that they end up much closer to the old CUSA than the old AAC. Sun Belt will continue to improve with teams like GS turning things around and with adding Marshall and JMU. ODU and USM definitely have potential to turn things around and be a very positive addition in football too.
The AAC deal runs through the 2031-32 season but I vaguely remember something about a look-in period where adjustments could be made. That being said, something isn't adding up because when the deal was first announced it supposedly had conference makeup clauses to protect ESPN. There's no way the deal can be worth the same after losing UConn, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston. So either Aresco hasn't publicly announced how they're patching the cracks behind the scenes, or there's some negotiation with ESPN going on. But I don't see how they could retain the same payout per team.
It feels a bit like “smoke and mirrors” by Aresco to me.
My speculation is the espn money is less per school now, but they are keeping the 8 remaining members “whole” with a combination of things like exit fees and lower payments to new members. They may be hoping after a few years they can renegotiate again if the new members improve and draw enough eyeballs
An interesting read
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2022/2/1...-contracts