What could the abandonment of divisions accomplish?
It helps to overcome Geography. If 9 members of the PAC 12 had an inclination to align with the Big 10 because of academic associations, they could play a core of 4 or 5 West Coast games and split 4 more home and away with schools in B1G areas and vice versa.
The conference would offer semi finals with one played in Phoenix and the other in Indianapolis and the finals in Pasadena.
Likewise, the SEC could add 8 mostly from the ACC and play semis in Dallas and Atlanta with the finals in New Orleans. Within the SEC it would be easy for former SWC/B12, ACC, and old core SEC schools to play a core of 5 and rotate 4.
As long as networks pay pro rata for the brand vs brand games two super conferences (really small leagues) could resolve much of what seems currently insurmountable obstacles to cooperation, level the media revenue disparity and in good faith come up with playoff structure which is agreeable and works in synch with NFL events instead of competing with them.
I do believe a third conference of about ~24 schools should more or less assembled because they are not academically amenable to the B1G or geographically compatible or brand accretive to the SEC. They want to be included, should be included, and division-less is also helpful in the construction of this new conference built around the Big 12.
So the NCAA convention may have delivered the very seed out of which a solid new structure may sprout and flourish. It just seems to me to be quite the remedy with which to address so many issues. And if the structure benefits networks, ends rancor, and draws fans, the cost of pro rata for 18 schools and a fair rate for the New Big 12 is a small and quite reasonable price to pay.
I actually think you make a great argument for keeping a divisional structure. At 24 members, you can divide your league into:
3 divisions of 8 (3 division champs + wild card play for conference crown)
4 divisions of 6 (4 division champs play for conference crown)
6 pods of 4 (essentially you’re playing your pod mates annually and cycling through the rest)
3 x 8 actually works really nice for the Big 10. They can integrate 8 PAC 12 schools as a unit and then the last 2 spots could go to some combination of: ND, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa St, Pitt.
What you will see from ESPN is two conferences of 15 broken down into three divisions each
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Tennessee
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, Florida
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
(01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]What you will see from ESPN is two conferences of 15 broken down into three divisions each
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Tennessee
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, Florida
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
No X. 40 million in deficits won't play out that way. ESPN will shelter the ACC product they most want in the SEC and pay to do it. Then they'll buy all NB12 rights and move the rest over. They aren't going to let Phillips, or the ACC screw up their plans. When that is accomplished, they'll have what they want. A P4. Why? Because when the current CFP contract expires, they won't risk having 3 P conferences to vote against them about changes. They'll settle for an impasse and status quo or perhaps bet on a desperate PAC 12 voting with them. So, 7 or 8 ACC schools (depending on ND's wishes) get a 40 million dollar raise and the rest get a 3-5-million-dollar bump to fill out the NB12 which starves the PAC 12 and B1G of any targets outside of each other.
So, UNC / Duke / UVa / Clemson / FSU and either ND or Kansas is in and 2 of Va Tech / Ga Tech / N.C. State / Miami.
The others move to the fully owned NB12.
ESPN owns schools from the 2 most viewer saturated regions SE & SW and marries both to the largest potential market (Atlantic Coast).
FOX keeps the #1 overall market and who knows what happens with the PAC 12.
I think the answer to the question is no. It doesn’t make financial sense for the SEC or Big Ten to add anyone other than Notre Dame at this point. The big fish have been landed. It’s the same result no matter how many football divisions they have.
(01-28-2022 01:32 AM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]I think the answer to the question is no. It doesn’t make financial sense for the SEC or Big Ten to add anyone other than Notre Dame at this point. The big fish have been landed. It’s the same result no matter how many football divisions they have.
You are too focused on what was, and no longer is. This isn't about conferences. It's about product placement and the segregation of product into similarly priced groups and aligned to maximize national audiences. It's business, not sports as we've known it, and values are determined by metrics alien to those once used by conferences.
(01-27-2022 09:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]What you will see from ESPN is two conferences of 15 broken down into three divisions each
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Tennessee
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, Florida
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
No X. 40 million in deficits won't play out that way. ESPN will shelter the ACC product they most want in the SEC and pay to do it. Then they'll buy all NB12 rights and move the rest over. They aren't going to let Phillips, or the ACC screw up their plans. When that is accomplished, they'll have what they want. A P4. Why? Because when the current CFP contract expires, they won't risk having 3 P conferences to vote against them about changes. They'll settle for an impasse and status quo or perhaps bet on a desperate PAC 12 voting with them. So, 7 or 8 ACC schools (depending on ND's wishes) get a 40 million dollar raise and the rest get a 3-5-million-dollar bump to fill out the NB12 which starves the PAC 12 and B1G of any targets outside of each other.
So, UNC / Duke / UVa / Clemson / FSU and either ND or Kansas is in and 2 of Va Tech / Ga Tech / N.C. State / Miami.
The others move to the fully owned NB12.
ESPN owns schools from the 2 most viewer saturated regions SE & SW and marries both to the largest potential market (Atlantic Coast).
FOX keeps the #1 overall market and who knows what happens with the PAC 12.
With this vision...
To split the ACC, ESPN would likely need to invest $350M more per year than its current contracted plans through 2036. $4B is a lot of money and risk, even for the mouse.
This doesn't include incremental payments to the B12 schools.
I could see schools pursuing whether this proposal has traction. It's ESPN that would likely pump the brakes on this thought process. ESPN may be angry at Phillips' direction, but collaborating with the ACC could be more profitable.
(01-28-2022 01:39 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-27-2022 09:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]What you will see from ESPN is two conferences of 15 broken down into three divisions each
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Tennessee
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, Florida
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
No X. 40 million in deficits won't play out that way. ESPN will shelter the ACC product they most want in the SEC and pay to do it. Then they'll buy all NB12 rights and move the rest over. They aren't going to let Phillips, or the ACC screw up their plans. When that is accomplished, they'll have what they want. A P4. Why? Because when the current CFP contract expires, they won't risk having 3 P conferences to vote against them about changes. They'll settle for an impasse and status quo or perhaps bet on a desperate PAC 12 voting with them. So, 7 or 8 ACC schools (depending on ND's wishes) get a 40 million dollar raise and the rest get a 3-5-million-dollar bump to fill out the NB12 which starves the PAC 12 and B1G of any targets outside of each other.
So, UNC / Duke / UVa / Clemson / FSU and either ND or Kansas is in and 2 of Va Tech / Ga Tech / N.C. State / Miami.
The others move to the fully owned NB12.
ESPN owns schools from the 2 most viewer saturated regions SE & SW and marries both to the largest potential market (Atlantic Coast).
FOX keeps the #1 overall market and who knows what happens with the PAC 12.
With this vision...
To split the ACC, ESPN would likely need to invest $350M more per year than its current contracted plans through 2036. $4B is a lot of money and risk, even for the mouse.
This doesn't include incremental payments to the B12 schools.
I could see schools pursuing whether this proposal has traction. It's ESPN that would likely pump the brakes on this thought process. ESPN may be angry at Phillips' direction, but collaborating with the ACC could be more profitable.
350 million is a fraction of an expanded playoff. You act as if these are big numbers. ESPN just paid over 350 million for T1 rights. Yes early reports said 300 million but the CBS bid which was rejected was 305. And the amount was not revealed (though Thompson the ad exec who handles ESPN/Disney and Coca-Cola said the final amount was closer to 400 than to 350) because of OU and UT's inclusion.
Networks look at potentials beyond the next contract period. The Big 12 currently makes 37 million, the ACC 32. Adding 8 to the B12 only raises the ESPN outlay by 40 million. The 7 likely to the SEC would add 280 million. So we aee looking at 320 actually to complete the moves. Now in the process ESPN gets national viewership boosts with games each week which adds millions per week in ad money. When your pool includes Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida, FSU, Clemson, Tennessee, Georgiar, and say Virginia Tech or possibly Notre Dame and you have 2 premier games per week on ABC and solid games for ESPN it's a winner.
How about Winter? UNC, UVa, Kentucky, Kansas, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, A&M, and possibly Duke to go with Florida you have a slate of must see hoops.
Summer? I'd say 75% of what will likely be the 8 schools in Omaha. And possibly even a tad more for the WCWS in Oklahoma City.
It's one helluva annual slate for a fraction of an NFL bid and just a tad under SEC T1 for football and it covers college sports for the entire year.
Networks don't look at value like conferences do. They look at how much more they could make with a stouter slate of must-see games. Clemson and FSU are worth much more in the SEC. Miami and Va Tech would be as well. Kentucky and Kansas are worth even more if playing UNC, Duke, UVa. Networks look at content multiplication and low yield game elimination.
This is product placement. The combination offered exceeds in value the individual parts and it is what all realignment has been about (for the networks).
(01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]What you will see from ESPN is two conferences of 15 broken down into three divisions each
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Tennessee
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, Florida
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
I see what you did with the Gamecocks.
(01-28-2022 05:38 PM)Statefan Wrote: [ -> ] (01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]What you will see from ESPN is two conferences of 15 broken down into three divisions each
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Tennessee
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, Florida
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
I see what you did with the Gamecocks.
What is it with X and chickens?
(01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Swap GT and WF.
Swap NC State and Duke.
(01-28-2022 05:42 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2022 05:38 PM)Statefan Wrote: [ -> ] (01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]What you will see from ESPN is two conferences of 15 broken down into three divisions each
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Tennessee
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, Florida
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
I see what you did with the Gamecocks.
What is it with X and chickens?
It's about creating a division that is perfect for UNC of course.
No Clemson, No FSU, No Miami, No Pitt, No South Carolina, No NC State - just beat perennial doormats UVa and Duke and current doormat GT.
If you assigned a numerical rank to the programs based on program strength the last 30 years, how they are now, their resources, etc., what you end up with is UNC in the weakest division with it's best program no better than 6th and certainly holding two of the three bottom programs. Miami's division would be next with the occupants ranging from 3 to about 13. State's division would have the top two programs and no program below 9. This is what UNC/Duke/UVa ALWAYS come up with and always have.
(01-27-2022 05:16 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]What could the abandonment of divisions accomplish?
It helps to overcome Geography. If 9 members of the PAC 12 had an inclination to align with the Big 10 because of academic associations, they could play a core of 4 or 5 West Coast games and split 4 more home and away with schools in B1G areas and vice versa.
The conference would offer semi finals with one played in Phoenix and the other in Indianapolis and the finals in Pasadena.
Likewise, the SEC could add 8 mostly from the ACC and play semis in Dallas and Atlanta with the finals in New Orleans. Within the SEC it would be easy for former SWC/B12, ACC, and old core SEC schools to play a core of 5 and rotate 4.
As long as networks pay pro rata for the brand vs brand games two super conferences (really small leagues) could resolve much of what seems currently insurmountable obstacles to cooperation, level the media revenue disparity and in good faith come up with playoff structure which is agreeable and works in synch with NFL events instead of competing with them.
I do believe a third conference of about ~24 schools should more or less assembled because they are not academically amenable to the B1G or geographically compatible or brand accretive to the SEC. They want to be included, should be included, and division-less is also helpful in the construction of this new conference built around the Big 12.
So the NCAA convention may have delivered the very seed out of which a solid new structure may sprout and flourish. It just seems to me to be quite the remedy with which to address so many issues. And if the structure benefits networks, ends rancor, and draws fans, the cost of pro rata for 18 schools and a fair rate for the New Big 12 is a small and quite reasonable price to pay.
I don't see conference semi-finals. Expansion will be in the playoffs.
(01-28-2022 01:56 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2022 01:32 AM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]I think the answer to the question is no. It doesn’t make financial sense for the SEC or Big Ten to add anyone other than Notre Dame at this point. The big fish have been landed. It’s the same result no matter how many football divisions they have.
You are too focused on what was, and no longer is. This isn't about conferences. It's about product placement and the segregation of product into similarly priced groups and aligned to maximize national audiences. It's business, not sports as we've known it, and values are determined by metrics alien to those once used by conferences.
It is business, and it is about profit, and they don't profit by adding schools to which TV attaches a lower value than the current SEC and Big Ten TV value averages. There's no one the Big Ten or SEC could add, other than Notre Dame, that has enough TV value to belong in their current similarly priced groups. Cable has one foot in the grave, and going forward cable can't justify adding a Rutgers to grab cable boxes.
(01-28-2022 05:42 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2022 05:38 PM)Statefan Wrote: [ -> ] (01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]What you will see from ESPN is two conferences of 15 broken down into three divisions each
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Tennessee
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, Florida
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
I see what you did with the Gamecocks.
What is it with X and chickens?
I really prefer Kentucky, but I really don't think that the SEC will give them up, South Carolina on the other hand...................................
(01-28-2022 06:27 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ] (01-27-2022 09:06 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State
Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Swap GT and WF.
Swap NC State and Duke.
I have no problems with those modifications
Georgia Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida State, Duke
Wake Forest, NC State, Carolina, Virginia Tech, UVa
(01-28-2022 09:26 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2022 01:56 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2022 01:32 AM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]I think the answer to the question is no. It doesn’t make financial sense for the SEC or Big Ten to add anyone other than Notre Dame at this point. The big fish have been landed. It’s the same result no matter how many football divisions they have.
You are too focused on what was, and no longer is. This isn't about conferences. It's about product placement and the segregation of product into similarly priced groups and aligned to maximize national audiences. It's business, not sports as we've known it, and values are determined by metrics alien to those once used by conferences.
It is business, and it is about profit, and they don't profit by adding schools to which TV attaches a lower value than the current SEC and Big Ten TV value averages. There's no one the Big Ten or SEC could add, other than Notre Dame, that has enough TV value to belong in their current similarly priced groups. Cable has one foot in the grave, and going forward cable can't justify adding a Rutgers to grab cable boxes.
I'm not talking cable boxes. USC may not be accretive to B1G payouts based on their own numbers recently, but would more people watch USC/Michigan, USC/Ohio State, USC/Penn State, USC/Wisconsin than would watch USC/Oregon? You bet! Synergism exists as an economic dynamic when you can garner many more brand-on-brand games. The same would be true for Oregon, Washington, UCLA, and likely Stanford vs the Big 10 stalwarts.
Clemson and FSU aren't accretive on paper because they play few games of prominence within the ACC. Do they add to the SEC? You bet! The nation will tune in for Alabama vs FSU because of their history. Clemson vs the SEC East is a strong regional set of games. Put them against the SEC West and it's national.
So, Wedge there is much more value than ND to be had, and we haven't even scratched hoops potential.
If the B1G and SEC take advantage of divisionless play and expand to 24 teams in a pay for play model, is there any need for them to be part of a CFP? They could just have their own 4 game playoff with their best 16 teams (8 from each conference) with semis on NYD at the Rose and Sugar Bowls.
(01-29-2022 10:50 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ]If the B1G and SEC take advantage of divisionless play and expand to 24 teams in a pay for play model, is there any need for them to be part of a CFP? They could just have their own 4 game playoff with their best 16 teams (8 from each conference) with semis on NYD at the Rose and Sugar Bowls.
Yes. But it would be necessary for that third conference to form (choice) in order to permit a natural winnowing (again choice). Not every school can afford this level of play, but some need time to figure that out. Then the 2 conferences absorb the survivors, and the process avoids legal entanglements. Choice has to be a delineator in addition to the cost. What people also fail to recognize is that the reduction in redundant overhead (# of conferences, conference properties, personnel, etc.) by consolidation and the gains in leverage, also yield strength and dividends. Inevitably both permit greater equity when dealing with the corporate network overlords.
What if the answer isn't 3 conferences of 24 but is instead 3 of 18 and one of 16-20? Follow me for a second...
SEC- Adds Clemson and FSU, these would be the final pieces to a football driven juggernaut.
B1G- Adds Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke. This is 3 AAU's and Notre Dame, completing the B1G's mission of mid-Atlantic influence they started in 2014 and creating the pre-eminent basketball conference.
PAC- Adds Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Houston, and Texas Tech. Get's the PAC the much needed Central time zone foothold they are looking for, specifically Texas, adds one basketball blueblood(KU), and two solid football programs(OSU, ISU). Most importantly distinguishes them as the number 3 conference.
What is left is 9 schools in the ACC and 6 from the Big12(including BYU, UC, & UCF). If they were to combine you would have a very solid 15 team conference with the ability to add 1-5 more schools and become the official gate keeper conference to the new level of "pay to play"
SEC---------- B1G --------- PAC---------- NEW
Alabama---------- Duke---------- Arizona---------- Baylor
Arkansas---------- Illinois---------- Arizona St.---------- Boston College
Auburn---------- Indiana---------- Cal---------- BYU
Clemson---------- Iowa---------- Colorado---------- Cincinnati
Florida---------- Maryland---------- Houston---------- Georgia Tech
Florida St.---------- Michigan---------- Iowa St.---------- Louisville
Georgia---------- Michigan St.---------- Kansas---------- Miami
Kentucky---------- Minnesota---------- Kansas St.---------- N.C. State
LSU---------- Nebraska---------- Oklahoma St.---------- Pittsburgh
Mississippi---------- North Carolina---------- Oregon---------- Syracuse
Mississippi St.---------- Northwestern---------- Oregon St.---------- TCU
Missouri---------- Notre Dame---------- Stanford---------- UCF
Oklahoma---------- Ohio St.---------- Texas Tech---------- Virginia Tech
South Carolina---------- Penn St.---------- UCLA---------- Wake Forest
Tennessee---------- Purdue---------- USC---------- West Virginia
Texas---------- Rutgers---------- Utah
Texas A&M---------- Virginia---------- Washington
Vanderbilt---------- Wisconsin---------- Washington St.
As for the other additions that could be added to this new gate keeper conference to bring it to between 16 and 20, it's the usual suspects, Boise St., Colorado St., Memphis, SDSU, SMU, USF, etc.
I'm not in complete disagreement with the idea of 24 team conferences but they tend to become quite large in geographic terms. The 18 school idea keeps the conferences a little more centralized while still producing 2 super conferences (B1G & SEC), which is the desired network outcome.[/color]