12-22-2021, 09:35 AM
For those of you who can't get enough of these great bowls such as the Idaho Potato Bowl (I don't know who's playing nor do I care), I give you this thread.
Imagine if all of the P5 head football coaching jobs (you can count future Big 12 teams in this exercise) become available today. Assume no new recruiting allegations or criminal acts that would make any job less attractive. What would be the best/worst P5 head coaching jobs? If you could take any head coaching job, which one(s) would you take? How about the worst? I think the fact that arguably three top ten jobs this year (Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Oregon) all opened not because of a firing, retirement, or even a move to the NFL, but because of a move to another head coaching job, makes this exercise relevant this year.
The obvious answer for the best would be Alabama but the man who takes that job is replacing Nick Saban. You have a better chance of success than any other program in the country but the highest expectations of anyone in the country. If you go 10-2 every year they will want your head on a silver platter. Win three national championships? You're not even half as good as Saban (and we haven't even gotten to Bear Bryant). Likewise, if you take Clemson's job you're replacing Dabo Swinney.
Obviously I'm biased but in 2021 going on 2022 I'm going to say Ohio State. Would you rather replace Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, or ... Ryan Day? Ohio State certainly has a lot of tradition and high expectations but not the same. You're also not competing in the SEC. It is tougher to get recruits to come to Columbus if they don't like the cold but you're not facing Georgia, Florida, LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M (and soon Oklahoma and Texas). I mean when even Ole Miss is in the top 25 most valuable football programs that's tough. No doubt I would love to be Alabama's head coach but if you gave me Alabama or Ohio State, I'll take Ohio State.
Other top jobs? Other than the obvious powerhouses, I'd have to think about places with lots of homegrown talent and/or desirable locations. Why did Lincoln Riley leave Oklahoma for USC? Could the fact that it is easier to attract recruits to Los Angeles than Oklahoma have figured into the decision? Or the fact that he would rather live in LA? Sure coaches would rather win but I'd rather win in California or Florida than insert name of undesirable state to live in. I know Mario Cristobal has ties to Miami but how many people would make the move from Miami to Oregon? Why didn't Chip Kelly make the move from UCLA to Oregon, probably a step up in football, and return home? I wouldn't leave Los Angeles for Eugene either.
The SEC pecking order is in a bit of a flux because of the uncertain nature after Oklahoma and Texas join. Will Alabama and Auburn join the SEC East? Will they go divisionless or go to pods? I think it's a bit overrated being in Alabama's division vs. not being in Alabama's division. Since Texas A&M and Missouri joined the SEC, Auburn, LSU, and Georgia have the same number of SEC Championships (one each). Most likely you're going to have to beat Alabama anyway whether it's a regular season game or the SEC Championship (Georgia did get lucky the year they won the SEC Championship but wound up playing Alabama in the national championship and losing). Were Auburn and LSU hurt by being in the SEC West any more than Georgia and Florida were helped by being in the SEC East? Not much.
In the Big Ten, Michigan and Penn State each have one Big Ten title while Wisconsin hasn't won any since they went to the East-West format. When Penn State won their Big Ten title, they got the Buckeyes at home. So did Michigan this past year. Wisconsin meanwhile lost the Big Ten Championship Game four times in eight years, three times to Ohio State and once to Penn State. What does winning a weak Big Ten West get them? No titles. If Penn State or Michigan can beat Ohio State, they go to the Big Ten Championship with OSU out of the picture. Wisconsin will have to beat Ohio State (or Penn State or Michigan) in Indy. It's easier to beat them on a neutral field than in Columbus but harder than at home. Georgia had Alabama in their home state this past month and still couldn't beat them.
So I don't think it will make that big a difference as to what the SEC divisions will be (if there are any). Unless Georgia fans really care much about their SEC Championship in 2017. I guess if you can't win the national championship, at least win the SEC. But after they lost to Alabama their SEC title was clearly tainted. Should Georgia fans be that upset if Alabama moves to the SEC East? In the long run, Georgia will have to beat Alabama to win the SEC nine out of ten times no matter what. But if you want to think it's better to be in the SEC West, maybe LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma become better jobs. Texas hasn't had much success since Vince Young but NIL could change that.
Worst? Vanderbilt's probably one of the candidates, especially if Alabama and Auburn move to the East. Rutgers' recruiting class was ranked 7th in the Big Ten by 247 Sports this year, a good coach that can keep that talent home could do well there. Oregon State's probably a lousy job considering you'd have to compete with Oregon and Nike and deal with a not so nice location and conference (at least Vanderbilt is still in the SEC). Kansas is certainly one of the worst if not the worst P5 program on the field, not so nice location and conference. If you hate the cold, Syracuse (although at least their home games are inside and many of their away games are down south). Also, the closer you get to New York you might get a chance to get decent talent.
Also is there a scenario you would leave a P5 head coaching job for a G5 head coaching job, assuming the money is the same? For example, would you leave Vanderbilt for Memphis, Kansas for SMU? Assume UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati are P5's.
By my count this will be my 4000th post
Imagine if all of the P5 head football coaching jobs (you can count future Big 12 teams in this exercise) become available today. Assume no new recruiting allegations or criminal acts that would make any job less attractive. What would be the best/worst P5 head coaching jobs? If you could take any head coaching job, which one(s) would you take? How about the worst? I think the fact that arguably three top ten jobs this year (Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Oregon) all opened not because of a firing, retirement, or even a move to the NFL, but because of a move to another head coaching job, makes this exercise relevant this year.
The obvious answer for the best would be Alabama but the man who takes that job is replacing Nick Saban. You have a better chance of success than any other program in the country but the highest expectations of anyone in the country. If you go 10-2 every year they will want your head on a silver platter. Win three national championships? You're not even half as good as Saban (and we haven't even gotten to Bear Bryant). Likewise, if you take Clemson's job you're replacing Dabo Swinney.
Obviously I'm biased but in 2021 going on 2022 I'm going to say Ohio State. Would you rather replace Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, or ... Ryan Day? Ohio State certainly has a lot of tradition and high expectations but not the same. You're also not competing in the SEC. It is tougher to get recruits to come to Columbus if they don't like the cold but you're not facing Georgia, Florida, LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M (and soon Oklahoma and Texas). I mean when even Ole Miss is in the top 25 most valuable football programs that's tough. No doubt I would love to be Alabama's head coach but if you gave me Alabama or Ohio State, I'll take Ohio State.
Other top jobs? Other than the obvious powerhouses, I'd have to think about places with lots of homegrown talent and/or desirable locations. Why did Lincoln Riley leave Oklahoma for USC? Could the fact that it is easier to attract recruits to Los Angeles than Oklahoma have figured into the decision? Or the fact that he would rather live in LA? Sure coaches would rather win but I'd rather win in California or Florida than insert name of undesirable state to live in. I know Mario Cristobal has ties to Miami but how many people would make the move from Miami to Oregon? Why didn't Chip Kelly make the move from UCLA to Oregon, probably a step up in football, and return home? I wouldn't leave Los Angeles for Eugene either.
The SEC pecking order is in a bit of a flux because of the uncertain nature after Oklahoma and Texas join. Will Alabama and Auburn join the SEC East? Will they go divisionless or go to pods? I think it's a bit overrated being in Alabama's division vs. not being in Alabama's division. Since Texas A&M and Missouri joined the SEC, Auburn, LSU, and Georgia have the same number of SEC Championships (one each). Most likely you're going to have to beat Alabama anyway whether it's a regular season game or the SEC Championship (Georgia did get lucky the year they won the SEC Championship but wound up playing Alabama in the national championship and losing). Were Auburn and LSU hurt by being in the SEC West any more than Georgia and Florida were helped by being in the SEC East? Not much.
In the Big Ten, Michigan and Penn State each have one Big Ten title while Wisconsin hasn't won any since they went to the East-West format. When Penn State won their Big Ten title, they got the Buckeyes at home. So did Michigan this past year. Wisconsin meanwhile lost the Big Ten Championship Game four times in eight years, three times to Ohio State and once to Penn State. What does winning a weak Big Ten West get them? No titles. If Penn State or Michigan can beat Ohio State, they go to the Big Ten Championship with OSU out of the picture. Wisconsin will have to beat Ohio State (or Penn State or Michigan) in Indy. It's easier to beat them on a neutral field than in Columbus but harder than at home. Georgia had Alabama in their home state this past month and still couldn't beat them.
So I don't think it will make that big a difference as to what the SEC divisions will be (if there are any). Unless Georgia fans really care much about their SEC Championship in 2017. I guess if you can't win the national championship, at least win the SEC. But after they lost to Alabama their SEC title was clearly tainted. Should Georgia fans be that upset if Alabama moves to the SEC East? In the long run, Georgia will have to beat Alabama to win the SEC nine out of ten times no matter what. But if you want to think it's better to be in the SEC West, maybe LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma become better jobs. Texas hasn't had much success since Vince Young but NIL could change that.
Worst? Vanderbilt's probably one of the candidates, especially if Alabama and Auburn move to the East. Rutgers' recruiting class was ranked 7th in the Big Ten by 247 Sports this year, a good coach that can keep that talent home could do well there. Oregon State's probably a lousy job considering you'd have to compete with Oregon and Nike and deal with a not so nice location and conference (at least Vanderbilt is still in the SEC). Kansas is certainly one of the worst if not the worst P5 program on the field, not so nice location and conference. If you hate the cold, Syracuse (although at least their home games are inside and many of their away games are down south). Also, the closer you get to New York you might get a chance to get decent talent.
Also is there a scenario you would leave a P5 head coaching job for a G5 head coaching job, assuming the money is the same? For example, would you leave Vanderbilt for Memphis, Kansas for SMU? Assume UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati are P5's.
By my count this will be my 4000th post
