Currently I count 71 eligible teams for 82 spots. So, there are about 11 spots left. I think we are in good shape if we win. There are 5 already in for CUSA. UNT will likely lose to UTSA. ODU would likely be the 6th team because we will have beaten the other 6-6 team (MTSU or FAU) and we will have a better conference record. Those would have to be the tie breakers I would have to believe. There is no way that the 6th CUSA will not go bowling. For one thing, the Sun Belt only has 4 eligible, and the two 5 win teams will likely lose. South Ala. plays Tennessee and Coastal. Troy plays at Georgia State. So, there will be a at least 1 or 2 empty spots from the Sun Belt. Also, the AAC is likely to only have 6 if Tulsa loses at SMU. I like those odds.
(11-20-2021 07:37 PM)CalODUFan Wrote: [ -> ]Currently I count 71 eligible teams for 82 spots. So, there are about 11 spots left. I think we are in good shape if we win. There are 5 already in for CUSA. UNT will likely lose to UTSA. ODU would likely be the 6th team because we will have beaten the other 6-6 team (MTSU or FAU) and we will have a better conference record. Those would have to be the tie breakers I would have to believe. There is no way that the 6th CUSA will not go bowling. For one thing, the Sun Belt only has 4 eligible, and the two 5 win teams will likely lose. South Ala. plays Tennessee and Coastal. Troy plays at Georgia State. So, there will be a at least 1 or 2 empty spots from the Sun Belt. Also, the AAC is likely to only have 6 if Tulsa loses at SMU. I like those odds.
From your mouth to the "gods of football" ears.
(11-20-2021 07:37 PM)CalODUFan Wrote: [ -> ]Currently I count 71 eligible teams for 82 spots. So, there are about 11 spots left. I think we are in good shape if we win. There are 5 already in for CUSA. UNT will likely lose to UTSA. ODU would likely be the 6th team because we will have beaten the other 6-6 team (MTSU or FAU) and we will have a better conference record. Those would have to be the tie breakers I would have to believe. There is no way that the 6th CUSA will not go bowling. For one thing, the Sun Belt only has 4 eligible, and the two 5 win teams will likely lose. South Ala. plays Tennessee and Coastal. Troy plays at Georgia State. So, there will be a at least 1 or 2 empty spots from the Sun Belt. Also, the AAC is likely to only have 6 if Tulsa loses at SMU. I like those odds.
Here is the analysis of the other 5 win teams in FBS. Not that many are favored to get to 6 (I count 6 of them), less than the 11 spots left. I think if we win, we are certainly in.
Teams favored to get to 6.
1. Winner of Florida v. Florida State (loser is out)
2. Memphis v. Tulane
3. Miami at Duke
4. West Virginia at Kansas
5. Winner of Maryland v. Rutgers (loser is out)
6. Ball State v. Buffalo
Underdogs to get to 6:
1. Missouri at Arkansas
2. LSU at Texas A&M
3. South Carolina v. Auburn and Clemson
4. Tulsa at SMU
5. Virginia Tech at UVA
6. TCU at Iowa State
7. San Jose State v. Fresno State
8. Wyoming at Utah State and v. Hawaii
9. Troy at Georgia State
10. So. Ala. v. Tennessee at Coastal
11. UL-Monroe v. LSU and LA- Lafayette
(11-20-2021 08:02 PM)CalODUFan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2021 07:37 PM)CalODUFan Wrote: [ -> ]Currently I count 71 eligible teams for 82 spots. So, there are about 11 spots left. I think we are in good shape if we win. There are 5 already in for CUSA. UNT will likely lose to UTSA. ODU would likely be the 6th team because we will have beaten the other 6-6 team (MTSU or FAU) and we will have a better conference record. Those would have to be the tie breakers I would have to believe. There is no way that the 6th CUSA will not go bowling. For one thing, the Sun Belt only has 4 eligible, and the two 5 win teams will likely lose. South Ala. plays Tennessee and Coastal. Troy plays at Georgia State. So, there will be a at least 1 or 2 empty spots from the Sun Belt. Also, the AAC is likely to only have 6 if Tulsa loses at SMU. I like those odds.
Here is the analysis of the other 5 win teams in FBS. Not that many are favored to get to 6 (I count 6 of them), less than the 11 spots left. I think if we win, we are certainly in.
Teams favored to get to 6.
1. Winner of Florida v. Florida State (loser is out)
2. Memphis v. Tulane
3. Miami at Duke
4. West Virginia at Kansas
5. Winner of Maryland v. Rutgers (loser is out)
6. Ball State v. Buffalo
Underdogs to get to 6:
1. Missouri at Arkansas
2. LSU at Texas A&M
3. South Carolina v. Auburn and Clemson
4. Tulsa at SMU
5. Virginia Tech at UVA
6. TCU at Iowa State
7. San Jose State v. Fresno State
8. Wyoming at Utah State and v. Hawaii
9. Troy at Georgia State
10. So. Ala. v. Tennessee at Coastal
11. UL-Monroe v. LSU and LA- Lafayette
My reliable sources say there are 7 guaranteed CUSA spots so my analysis is probably not necessary but it is enlightening. We should be higher in the pecking order over the winner of FAU and MTSU if we win since we beat them both and would have a better conference record. I would hope that would translate into a better bowl game.
That we are playing meaningful games on Thanksgiving weekend is amazing, and long overdue.
With all of the youth on this team, the future is really bright, especially with a defense that produces big results in key moments.
Knew little about Rahne, and took a while longer with the COVID year, but I really like how he is building a team, and without a ton of hype. Gotta give the man his due.