CONFERENCE USA
West
15. U.T.S.A. (8-0)
87. U.A.B. (5-3)
88. U.T.E.P. (6-2)
114. Louisiana Tech (2-6)
116. RICE (3-5)
123. North Texas (2-6)
128. Southern Miss (1-7)
East
77. Florida Atlantic (5-3)
80. Marshall (5-3)
81. Western Kentucky (4-4)
98. Middle Tennessee (4-4)
113. Charlotte (4-4)
122. Old Dominion (2-6)
129. F.I.U. (1-7)
OTHERS:
28. Houston (7-1)
34. Texas (4-4)
35. Arkansas (5-3)
TOP 25
1. Georgia (8-0)
2. Ohio State (7-1)
3. Michigan (7-1)
4. Alabama (7-1)
5. Wake Forest (8-0)
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6. Michigan State (8-0)
7. Notre Dame (7-1)
8. Oklahoma (9-0)
9. Baylor (7-1)
10. Cincinnati (8-0)
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11. Oklahoma State (7-1)
12. Oregon (7-1)
13. Auburn (6-2)
14. Texas A&M (6-2)
15. U.T.S.A. (8-0)
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16. Kentucky (6-2)
17. Iowa (6-2)
18. Mississippi (6-2)
19. Wisconsin (5-3)
20. North Carolina State (6-2)
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21. Utah (5-3)
22. Pittsburgh (6-2)
23. Kansas State (5-3)
24. Minnesota (6-2)
25. Iowa State (5-3)
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Other teams ranked in the polls:
26. B.Y.U. (7-2)
27. Penn State (5-3)
28. Houston (7-1)
30. Coastal Carolina (7-1)
36. S.M.U. (7-1)
38. Fresno State (7-2)
39. Louisiana (7-1)
So not a lot of love for the AAC teams here, especially compared to the AP poll.
Cincinnati wouldn’t even make an 8-team CFP (let alone the current 4-team version) if you (or your ranking) were on the committee.
Thoughts?
My thought is that they should be ahead of Notre Dame. Explain that one.
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Michigan and Michigan State for that matter.
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Need to look at the entirety of the season, not just one game. Cincinnati has been unimpressive against Navy and Tulane, and those results cannot be ignored, notwithstanding the victory over Notre Dame.
With respect to Michigan/Michigan State
First, it was a home game for Michigan State.
Next, let's look at the schedules, which strongly favor the Wolverines.
They have 3 common opponents:
Michigan State 38 @84Northwestern 21
@Michigan 33, 84Northwestern 7
(no advantage)
@Michigan State 23, 66Nebraska 20
Michigan 32, @66Nebraska 29
(slight advantage to Michigan - on road)
Michigan State 31, @50Rutgers 13
@Michigan 20, 50Rutgers 13
(advantage to Michigan State)
Other games (comparison by worse to best, as groupings)
@Michigan State 42, Youngstown State 14 (they are 2-5 in FCS)
@Michigan 47, 78Western Michigan 14
(big advantage to Michigan)
Michigan State 20, @83Indiana 15
@Michigan 63, 67Northern Illinois 10
(big advantage to Michigan)
@Michigan State 48, 81Western Kentucky 31
@Michigan 31, 64Washington 10
(advantage to Michigan)
Michigan State 38, @44Miami, Fla 17
Michigan 38, @19Wisconsin 17
(big advantage to Michigan)
Using my system, Michigan would be favored by 5 at home. Michigan State would be 1½ favorite at home.
WRC - Does your system also weight recent results more than early-season ones?
(Great to finally meet you in person at Saturday's game. Thanks for finding me.)
(11-01-2021 08:54 AM)Almadenmike Wrote: [ -> ]WRC - Does your system also weight recent results more than early-season ones?
(Great to finally meet you in person at Saturday's game. Thanks for finding me.)
It does not. For example, doing so would penalize those conference teams who finish with a couple of dogs, due to no fault of their own.
It was nice to meet you on your reunion weekend.