I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)
The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.
Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.
The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.
(09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: [ -> ]I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)
The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.
Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.
The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.
the only thing we can do is chip away. so far weve done a great job of laying the ground work not only for the AAC but for the G5 as well. i remember when Houston almost went undeafted we could go only as far as #17? then UCF having some incredible seasons made it hard for others to ignore along with Memphis. Now Cinci is 4 games in and sitting at #7. i mean that is crazy. not only that but there are more G5 teams in the Top 25 just the last few years because of that.
the ground work is done and now Cinci is closer to getting a CFP spot than anyone has before. i can say the AAC has represented well and we have paved the way.
yes.. they can but its not in their control...
beat ND, and have notre dame finish in the top 10 and cincy is in undefeated....
(09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: [ -> ]I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)
The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.
Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.
The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.
The Bearcats would need to be 13-0, one loss ends the run.
Then, who can they jump ahead of? Bama and GA, not likely. Oregon and psu could lose a couple of games. OK probably stays ahead of UC with one loss. Iowa will likely drop.
Then, who could pass UC? FL and of course Ohio St would pass them with only one loss.
So yeah its tough for Cincinnati, OP is spot on.
Actually think they have a better shot since they accepted the B12 invite and are now soon to be sorta members of the club. Since it's decided on by humans with massive P5 biases them now being good enough to be officially invited probably helps. Still think everything would have to break right, but B12 members on the committee now have a vested interest in pumping them up if they got in position.
UC at ND this weekend is likely the biggest regular season game in AAC history. Both teams in the top 10.
Even winning that game UC will likely be on the outside looking in. 2 of the 4 spots are pretty much locked up for Alabama and Georgia barring those 2 teams losing twice. The B10 gets theirs as of right. Even a one loss Oklahoma would likely get the last spot.
(09-27-2021 01:07 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]Actually think they have a better shot since they accepted the B12 invite and are now soon to be sorta members of the club. Since it's decided on by humans with massive P5 biases them now being good enough to be officially invited probably helps. Still think everything would have to break right, but B12 members on the committee now have a vested interest in pumping them up if they got in position.
Agree with this. It brings it in to the realm of possibility.
Also agree with the OP that by default the G5 have a 0.00% chance of making a four-team CFP.
But with the B12 invite they now officially do have a chance.
(09-27-2021 01:07 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]Actually think they have a better shot since they accepted the B12 invite and are now soon to be sorta members of the club. Since it's decided on by humans with massive P5 biases them now being good enough to be officially invited probably helps. Still think everything would have to break right, but B12 members on the committee now have a vested interest in pumping them up if they got in position.
If you're a biased Big12 CFP committee voter, I would think they would still favor a current Big12 member over an future Big12 member.
Big12 can make money now with a CFP invite, even if its OU representing them. The CFP money goes to the AAC if Cincy gets in over a current Big12 team. Plus that's a dangerous precedent to have the AAC make the CFP over the Big12 Champion.
SEC looks like they will have 2 teams locked in.
That leaves Big10, PAC, Big12 and ACC fighting for 2 slots. ACC is pretty much out of the conversation already. Big10 and PAC are the most hopeful to land the remaining 2 slots. Big12's best shot is OU with some SEC voters boosting their votes.
If they could get Big12 Champion and Cincy in the CFP then of course they would vote that way. But it doesn't look like thats in the cards. The only play Big12 votes can afford is make money now with OU in CFP.
Now that Cincy has the label on their side, they have a shot if they win out.
(09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: [ -> ]I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)
The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.
Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.
The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.
completely agree with you. even if UC runs the table and goes undefeated, this will be their last "big" game - if UC beats ND, they might move up a spot, unless teams above them lose. as the season wears on, and other teams get their "big" wins, it'll be just like last year - UC will slowly drop 2 or 3 spots by the end of the year, as those "great" wins by P5 schools "have to be rewarded" - same old song and dance
I think it's possible for a G5 team to make the playoff, but requires a perfect storm, so it's not happening this year.
What you need to have is an undefeated G5 team with wins over 2 A5 champions and a ranked conference opponent in their championship game.
Cincinnati needs Indiana to win the B1G and Notre Dame to win all of their games except the H2H, and that may still not be enough because Notre Dame is not a conference Champ.
Say Temple went undefeated and Boston College won the ACC while Rutgers won the B1G, and Temple also beat a ranked opponent in the American championship game. Then they'd be in the playoff. Or if USF went undfeated, NC State won the ACC and Florida won the SEC. They'd be in.
But none of that is happening, so...
If Cincinnati is 13-0 after the CCG, they’ll have a decent shot. Probably less than 50/50 but a legit chance. Hinges on how a bunch of other games turn out, of course.
I'll add that SMU winning out is very important to Cincinnati. If Cincinnati and SMU are undefeated when we face off it would probably be the College Game Day site and bring the much needed exposure just like SMU helped Memphis a few years ago.
(09-27-2021 02:22 PM)mustangxc Wrote: [ -> ]I'll add that SMU winning out is very important to Cincinnati. If Cincinnati and SMU are undefeated when we face off it would probably be the College Game Day site and bring the much needed exposure just like SMU helped Memphis a few years ago.
Week 12 has:
Alabama-Arkansas
Michigan State-Ohio State
Iowa State-Oklahoma
Clemson-Wake Forest
As a Cincinnati fan who has seen multiple opportunities at Gameday be thrown to the curb, I doubt there will be a stage built on McMicken Commons on November 20th.
(09-27-2021 02:00 PM)Chappy Wrote: [ -> ]I think it's possible for a G5 team to make the playoff, but requires a perfect storm, so it's not happening this year.
What you need to have is an undefeated G5 team with wins over 2 A5 champions and a ranked conference opponent in their championship game.
Cincinnati needs Indiana to win the B1G and Notre Dame to win all of their games except the H2H, and that may still not be enough because Notre Dame is not a conference Champ.
Say Temple went undefeated and Boston College won the ACC while Rutgers won the B1G, and Temple also beat a ranked opponent in the American championship game. Then they'd be in the playoff. Or if USF went undfeated, NC State won the ACC and Florida won the SEC. They'd be in.
But none of that is happening, so...
You don’t think we can win the American championship game? Ouch.
Cincinnati needed Memphis and UCF to be better. Maybe if the only losses Memphis and UCF had were to Cincinnati and each other, that would have helped their case. But even with the chaos at the top, I still think they will be on the outside looking in unfortunately.
(09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: [ -> ]I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)
The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.
Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.
The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.
cincy has no chance, go undefeated, still no chance, have y’all not learned anything?
and houston was #6 at week two in 2016 after beating #3 oklahoma
If cinci can finish undefeated, with a win over Notre Dame, I think it will be hard for them to jot get in.
(09-27-2021 03:55 PM)JHS55 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: [ -> ]I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)
The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.
Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.
The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.
cincy has no chance, go undefeated, still no chance, have y’all not learned anything?
and houston was #6 at week two in 2016 after beating #3 oklahoma
Then what happened?
(09-27-2021 03:56 PM)mtmedlin Wrote: [ -> ]If cinci can finish undefeated, with a win over Notre Dame, I think it will be hard for them to jot get in.
really ???, remember now that there is a selection committee that is controlled by espn, mybe you’ve forgotten about that ?