Grant of rights running for more than a decade. Limits options for raiders from the North, South, & West...But they'll be so far behind that their programs may suffer. I can't decide if they are better off or not in today's environment.
(08-09-2021 02:22 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote: [ -> ]Grant of rights running for more than a decade. Limits options for raiders from the North, South, & West...But they'll be so far behind that their programs may suffer. I can't decide if they are better off or not in today's environment.
Considering what has just happened to the BIG12, and the chatter in 2012 that FSU and Clemson may leave for the BIG12 or SEC... I would have to say they are in a better position today then they were... You are correct they can't crack second of first in P5 TV deals, however coming in third with a 24/7 TV network is pretty impresive IMHO.
I would say in the short term the ACC is in a relatively strong position. Long term, with the possible dissolving of the BigXII, the other power conferences renegotiating their TV contracts ahead of them and the creation of a new playoff, they are going to be a weakened position in 4 or 5 years.
Strong or weak, or happy or unhappy?
Most of the ACC is happy that Clemson and Florida State are (probably) not on the SEC menu because the 15 years remaining on the ACC GOR would be a helluva lot harder to buy out of than the 4 years remaining on the Big 12 GOR.
OTOH, Clemson and Florida State (and anyone else in the ACC who dreams of an SEC or Big Ten payday) might be banging their heads against the wall because it will be more than 10 years before they are as close to the end of their GOR as Texas and Oklahoma are now, and 10 years from now the big-money realignment train might be gone for good.
If the president of UNC, UVA, FSU, or Clemson called the SEC today, they would be added without question. Possibly VT & NCSU, too (if UVA & UNC wouldn't budge). The Big 10 would love to add Duke. Pitt & Syracuse & GT would at least get strong consideration.
So the majority of ACC schools are valuable. Unlike the Big 12, which everyone knew only had 2 schools with any realistic hope of going to the SEC/Big 10 without being a tagalong with Texas.
Additionally:
1) they are stronger together than apart.
2) they have guaranteed home games against Notre Dame (extra tv $)
3) politics keeps 4 of the core members tied to the ACC (UNC & NC State are part of the same university system, while VT & UVA seem to have cemented a bond from the 2003 deal to add VT to the ACC).
They'll never get SEC or Big 10 money because they don't have any 100,000 seat stadiums.
But they are certainly strong enough to say "no" to West Virginia.
Their real weakness is lack of revenue. It's a serious problem, but other than that it doesn't seem the schools have issues with being in the same league. That's an effective strength.
When it comes to other movements in the past, it would seem discord of some sort or the other plays a large role. Even with Maryland, they were unhappy with ACC leadership. It wasn't the only reason, but it helped push them out the door when the opportunity presented itself.
Meanwhile, the other schools signed the GOR in a period where some could have bolted.
The ACC Network launched in August of 2019 ... without full carriage in it's footprint.
6 and a half months later ... the ACC basketball tournament was being canceled, along with everything else in the world. As we all know, the pandemic caused problems well into the next year too, with jacked up football schedules, and covid effected baseball schedules.
So ... Considering the way the network started, I think the ACC is doing ok for itself. And I think the revenue the ACCN will generate will be more than it has been, when things normalize.
The ACC won't reach the revenue levels of the Big Ten or SEC. But it will provide well enough for the conference to be one of the last 4 standing ... which is all anyone should expect.
They are in a stable position to survive until next decade.
Beyond that the project much weaker payouts than the B1G, SEC, and potentially the PAC depending on their new deal and how well they can get some value from P12Net.
Question is when it’s feasible to get out of their GOR what is the economic driver for realignment and does it add pressure or reduce it?
Its hard to say how SEC-16 is going to play out.
1) Will the SEC-16 result in more losses for everyone with all the competition.
2) Does NIL drive revenue away from coaching salaries and toward player compensation?
Its hard to say how the college landscape will look in 2030.
It could evolve in a way that helps the ACC making it easy for the large metro schools to compete.
Cincinnati would add good pop to their FB and has acceptable academics. That way they can get deeper in the next negotiations.
ACC is as strong if not more strong than the PAC. If they lose Clemson/FSU or NC and VA blocs, you can retool with UC, WVU and UConn as they fall under perm-availables. They’d have to lose 8+ schools from every regionality before any chance of liquidation arises.
(08-09-2021 03:34 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]If the president of UNC, UVA, FSU, or Clemson called the SEC today, they would be added without question.
I don't know about that.
Let's pretend the ACC didn't have a GOR. If the SEC wanted to expand, Oklahoma/Texas would be their first choice over any other ACC pair or combination. Could they expand by 4 or more schools at once? Sure. But that's a lot at once. There is no precedence for a major conference to have more than 16 teams and expanding by more than a few teams at a time reminds me of the old WAC and old Big East. There's also less incentive for the SEC to expand further once they have Oklahoma and Texas. I think the Big Ten would more likely target ACC schools to counter the SEC's Oklahoma/Texas add.
Good for the short-term, bad long term.
Agree with those who say short-term strong, and long term looking grim. ACC has an opportunity to strengthen before the 2030's to seal their fate. Swoffy did a subpar job IMHO and Phillips has the opportunity to better position the conference for the future. Let's see what happens
(08-09-2021 02:22 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote: [ -> ]Grant of rights running for more than a decade. Limits options for raiders from the North, South, & West...But they'll be so far behind that their programs may suffer. I can't decide if they are better off or not in today's environment.
I think that for the *conference* the TX/OU situation has created uncertainty. A month ago, I would have said the ACC was very stable. But now, we have a precedent of some major powers defying their GOR, or at least being willing to announce a move several years before a GOR expires. Not as many as the ACC has left, but still, in a sense, the "aura of invincibility" of the GOR has been challenged.
I agree with Jared7 - how the GOR situation is handled by the Big 12 and TX/OU is going to set a precedent, and that might strengthen the ACC's hand if the GOR proves to be durable and able to extract a high price to overcome it, or it might prove it to be a Maginot Line, thus exposing the ACC's gambit as fool's gold. Overall, the uncertainty about this has weakened the ACC in this moment.
But there is another interest at stake here - the interests of the major powers, such as Clemson and FSU. Let's face it, if these schools had their druthers, they probably wish the GOR did not exist, as it has seemed to lock them in to a relatively bad media deal that will likely see them fall further behind their rivals in the SEC and B1G over the next decade. They would like the freedom to test the waters, and the GOR is a shackle.
So as is often the case, what is best for the "conference" is not necessarily best for a member school. In this case, a Big 12/TX/OU outcome on the GOR that strengthens that tool is good for "the ACC" as an entity, bad for some of its big members, IMO, and vice-versa.
(08-09-2021 05:07 PM)schmolik Wrote: [ -> ] (08-09-2021 03:34 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]If the president of UNC, UVA, FSU, or Clemson called the SEC today, they would be added without question.
I don't know about that.
Let's pretend the ACC didn't have a GOR. If the SEC wanted to expand, Oklahoma/Texas would be their first choice over any other ACC pair or combination. Could they expand by 4 or more schools at once? Sure. But that's a lot at once. There is no precedence for a major conference to have more than 16 teams and expanding by more than a few teams at a time reminds me of the old WAC and old Big East. There's also less incentive for the SEC to expand further once they have Oklahoma and Texas. I think the Big Ten would more likely target ACC schools to counter the SEC's Oklahoma/Texas add.
If UNC/UVA wanted to join the SEC, you grab them. Now. You don't wait & give them a chance to reconsider.
They're the last big prizes in conference reallignment, and they're contiguous to multiple SEC states. They're arguably a great fit in either the SEC or Big 10.
If Clemson wants to join, the SEC grabs them. Now. They have been top-20 in attendance for decades, even when they're mediocre. And they're a perfect cultural fit.
FSU is not a slam dunk right now. I personally think they were a 1-coach school. Jimbo won big too, but he left because FSU's admins wouldn't commit to football.
Also, unlike AL, MS, GA, SC, TX, etc, Florida has one flagship state university (in Gainesville) and the rest are equals. FSU was an all-girls school until 1947, which gave it a head start over its in-state competitors which had to build from scratch in the 50s & 60s. But now USF has pulled even or pulled ahead of FSU in most academic, financial, and enrollment measures, and FAU, FIU, and UCF are hot on their heels. All four of those competitors are in superior locations.
But still, FSU would be the largest SEC school outside of FL and TX. They've won 3 national titles in the last 3 decades. If they want to join the SEC, they'd be demonstrating a renewed commitment to football that would keep make them a no-brainer to add.
The SEC would be insane to say no to any of those 4 for any reason.
(08-09-2021 07:15 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]Also, unlike AL, MS, GA, SC, TX, etc, Florida has one flagship state university (in Gainesville) and the rest are equals. FSU was an all-girls school until 1947, which gave it a head start over its in-state competitors which had to build from scratch in the 50s & 60s. But now USF has pulled even or pulled ahead of FSU in most academic, financial, and enrollment measures, and FAU, FIU, and UCF are hot on their heels. All four of those competitors are in superior locations.
Pulling ahead in enrollment is not always a driver for statewide recognition. The largest public university in Virginia is...George Mason.
I'm not aware of "most" academic measurements sending USF ahead of FSU, either. US News has FSU at #58. USF is #103, UCF #160 .
The ACC network is still so new and is growing should be signing a Comcast deal soon. We don’t really know what difference that channel can really make
I would say the ACC is stable for the next decade. However, if Texas and OU can win a legal case which allows them to enter the SEC early and thereby nullifies the GOR concept, then it’s open season for expansion.
(08-09-2021 07:43 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ] (08-09-2021 07:15 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]Also, unlike AL, MS, GA, SC, TX, etc, Florida has one flagship state university (in Gainesville) and the rest are equals. FSU was an all-girls school until 1947, which gave it a head start over its in-state competitors which had to build from scratch in the 50s & 60s. But now USF has pulled even or pulled ahead of FSU in most academic, financial, and enrollment measures, and FAU, FIU, and UCF are hot on their heels. All four of those competitors are in superior locations.
Pulling ahead in enrollment is not always a driver for statewide recognition. The largest public university in Virginia is...George Mason.
I'm not aware of "most" academic measurements sending USF ahead of FSU, either. US News has FSU at #58. USF is #103, UCF #160 .
That's an undergraduate education "buyer's guide" ... in the ARWU, for the top Florida Universities:
37. Florida
66-94: FSU
66-94: USF
95-114: UCF
So, at least for this year, the AWRU doesn't put USF "ahead of" FSU, it puts them in the same tier ... which FSU higher in the undergraduate education in the USNWR, it probably tilts to FSU.
Note that the ARWU is a results based ranking (publications, nobel laureates, shields medalists, etc.), so it's more volatile than the rankings based on how much the Universities
spend on research.
Of course, the pressure is
really on FIU and FAU to ring the bell before Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach turn into Key Miami, Key Lauderdale and Key Palm Beach.