Pretty good points IMO.
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/14...1539271682
Quote:Pete Thamel
@PeteThamel
A few things to ponder when waiting to find out when Texas and OU start in the SEC. The current SEC TV deal with CBS runs out after the 2023 football season. (That deal is a terrible deal for the SEC, excellent for CBS at around $55 million for best games and SEC title game) 1/5
If OU and Texas came to the SEC prior to 2023, assuming they escape grant of rights, CBS would presumably have access to Red River and their home games. CBS has shown in past SEC realignment that they aren’t going to pay more money for these games. 2/5
So there’s no likely financial bump for the rest of the SEC from CBS in short term. There *could* be some legal wrangling over whether CBS owns these games, but that seems unlikely to work. 3/5
The other dynamic here is that Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby is daring OU/Texas/ESPN to give them a reason get litigious. ESPN doesn’t have full control of SEC TV rights until 2024 season, which would be the final one OU and Texas are in Big 12. 4/5
That’s a long way to say that market and legal forces *could* lead to some patience here. Also, exit fees are giant at more than $150 million combined. The juice may not be worth the squeeze when you judge cost and legal risk with seemingly limited potential return. 5/5
(08-02-2021 02:02 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty good points IMO.
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/14...1539271682
Quote:Pete Thamel
@PeteThamel
A few things to ponder when waiting to find out when Texas and OU start in the SEC. The current SEC TV deal with CBS runs out after the 2023 football season. (That deal is a terrible deal for the SEC, excellent for CBS at around $55 million for best games and SEC title game) 1/5
If OU and Texas came to the SEC prior to 2023, assuming they escape grant of rights, CBS would presumably have access to Red River and their home games. CBS has shown in past SEC realignment that they aren’t going to pay more money for these games. 2/5
So there’s no likely financial bump for the rest of the SEC from CBS in short term. There *could* be some legal wrangling over whether CBS owns these games, but that seems unlikely to work. 3/5
The other dynamic here is that Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby is daring OU/Texas/ESPN to give them a reason get litigious. ESPN doesn’t have full control of SEC TV rights until 2024 season, which would be the final one OU and Texas are in Big 12. 4/5
That’s a long way to say that market and legal forces *could* lead to some patience here. Also, exit fees are giant at more than $150 million combined. The juice may not be worth the squeeze when you judge cost and legal risk with seemingly limited potential return. 5/5
IMO this isn't really far out thinking. I think the consensus around here is that (a) TX and OU aren't starting in 2021-2022 and (b) most would be surprised if they are still playing in the Big 12 in 2024-2025.
So regarding football, the consensus is they start football play in 2023 or 2024. This writer is predicting 2024, which is in that range.
Now if someone is arguing that TX and OU start in the SEC a month from now, or will play out their entire remaining contract through 2024-2025, that would be more provocative, IMO.
(08-02-2021 02:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (08-02-2021 02:02 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty good points IMO.
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/14...1539271682
Quote:Pete Thamel
@PeteThamel
A few things to ponder when waiting to find out when Texas and OU start in the SEC. The current SEC TV deal with CBS runs out after the 2023 football season. (That deal is a terrible deal for the SEC, excellent for CBS at around $55 million for best games and SEC title game) 1/5
If OU and Texas came to the SEC prior to 2023, assuming they escape grant of rights, CBS would presumably have access to Red River and their home games. CBS has shown in past SEC realignment that they aren’t going to pay more money for these games. 2/5
So there’s no likely financial bump for the rest of the SEC from CBS in short term. There *could* be some legal wrangling over whether CBS owns these games, but that seems unlikely to work. 3/5
The other dynamic here is that Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby is daring OU/Texas/ESPN to give them a reason get litigious. ESPN doesn’t have full control of SEC TV rights until 2024 season, which would be the final one OU and Texas are in Big 12. 4/5
That’s a long way to say that market and legal forces *could* lead to some patience here. Also, exit fees are giant at more than $150 million combined. The juice may not be worth the squeeze when you judge cost and legal risk with seemingly limited potential return. 5/5
IMO this isn't really far out thinking. I think the consensus around here is that (a) TX and OU aren't starting in 2021-2022 and (b) most would be surprised if they are still playing in the Big 12 in 2024-2025.
So regarding football, the consensus is they start football play in 2023 or 2024. This writer is predicting 2024, which is in that range.
Now if someone is arguing that TX and OU start in the SEC a month from now, or will play out their entire remaining contract through 2024-2025, that would be more provocative, IMO.
The intent is to start in 2022. That will be difficult to do, but possible.
The worst case is 2025. But there will be one more season in the Big 12 at least and 4 at most. I don't think anyone expects 4 more.
(08-02-2021 02:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (08-02-2021 02:02 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty good points IMO.
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/14...1539271682
Quote:Pete Thamel
@PeteThamel
A few things to ponder when waiting to find out when Texas and OU start in the SEC. The current SEC TV deal with CBS runs out after the 2023 football season. (That deal is a terrible deal for the SEC, excellent for CBS at around $55 million for best games and SEC title game) 1/5
If OU and Texas came to the SEC prior to 2023, assuming they escape grant of rights, CBS would presumably have access to Red River and their home games. CBS has shown in past SEC realignment that they aren’t going to pay more money for these games. 2/5
So there’s no likely financial bump for the rest of the SEC from CBS in short term. There *could* be some legal wrangling over whether CBS owns these games, but that seems unlikely to work. 3/5
The other dynamic here is that Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby is daring OU/Texas/ESPN to give them a reason get litigious. ESPN doesn’t have full control of SEC TV rights until 2024 season, which would be the final one OU and Texas are in Big 12. 4/5
That’s a long way to say that market and legal forces *could* lead to some patience here. Also, exit fees are giant at more than $150 million combined. The juice may not be worth the squeeze when you judge cost and legal risk with seemingly limited potential return. 5/5
IMO this isn't really far out thinking. I think the consensus around here is that (a) TX and OU aren't starting in 2021-2022 and (b) most would be surprised if they are still playing in the Big 12 in 2024-2025.
So regarding football, the consensus is they start football play in 2023 or 2024. This writer is predicting 2024, which is in that range.
Now if someone is arguing that TX and OU start in the SEC a month from now, or will play out their entire remaining contract through 2024-2025, that would be more provocative, IMO.
I hadn't thought of the CBS/freeloader point. He's right that there's no reason to give CBS a season or two of Sooner and Longhorn home games for free, especially given that the schools would have to pay the Big 12 remainers even more money to leave that early.
2024 is the same date we seem to have arrived at in the "Dodds" thread on the B12 when talking about this very point on the cost of GOR.
It's just way too expensive for Texas and Oklahoma to leave earlier than that. That gives everyone plenty of time to plan for that date. If they can agree to terms this year. It also is plenty of time to invite an AAC school and meet the 27 months, and enough time for BYU to unwind their Indy schedule.
2024 it is.
I think 2024 is reasonable for all the authors points plus just the fact that there will be other waves of shuffling for this which means lots of future schedules have to be adjusted and reworked
(08-02-2021 02:15 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]2024 is the same date we seem to have arrived at in the "Dodds" thread on the B12 when talking about this very point on the cost of GOR.
It's just way too expensive for Texas and Oklahoma to leave earlier than that. That gives everyone plenty of time to plan for that date. If they can agree to terms this year. It also is plenty of time to invite an AAC school and meet the 27 months, and enough time for BYU to unwind their Indy schedule.
2024 it is.
2024 is also consistent with Gundy's comments.
Its not like this is Chicago St and Cal Baptist trying to move around their 10 mil athletic department. These are major operations we are talking about here in Texas and Oklahoma.
I'm fine with a few more years under the current setup. Gives SC a change to hopefully get our house in order, although I don't have particularly high hopes.
What I find most interesting about that article is that Thamel is now fully in agreement that the exit fees are $150-160 million, whereas only 3 days ago UT's mouthpieces were claiming it was only $80 million and the media hacks were just lathering it up by repeating that absurd claim. It apparently has now dawned on UT that they stupidly gave 4 years notice rather than the anticipated 18-months and that the Interim Period in the by-laws has now started running which means 4 years worth of revenue withholdings. That's progress.
But the second interesting thing is that folderol about "assuming they escape grant of rights." That isn't happening. If they leave for the 2023 season, that means only 1 year of GOR implications, but it also means that the Big 12 is entitled to whatever UT makes for that 1 year. So, if it's $65 million, that's another $65 million for the Big 12. And if it goes up because ESPN would then own all of the SEC's rights, so it could be $90 million, then it would be whatever the greater amount will be. In that event, it'd be $120 million (each) in exit fees plus whatever UT makes starting in 2023. If $65 million, then $185 million; and if $90 million, then $210 million. Each. Similar calculations can be made if it's 2022.
The only way UT avoids GOR implications is if they stay for the full 4 years. Anything before that means much more money owed. UT has a choice to make - $150-160 million if they stay 4 years, up to $210 million if they leave for the 2023 season.
If that is the case that the goal is to move in 2024, then the key date for AAC teams is April 1, 2022. That is if they want to give 27 months notice and start on July 1, 2024.
Now there is a precedent set in the AAC if you want to leave with 15 months notice instead, they could pay an additional exit fee of $7.5M and join the Big 12 by July, 2023.
So there is a possibility if Tex and Ok end up leaving in 2023, the Big 12 might ask 2 teams to join by 2023 and then add the other teams they are adding in 2024.
This tells me at least 2 teams will be announcing by April 1, 2022, that they are leaving the AAC and joining the Big 12 in either 2023 or 2024.