CSNbbs

How about umass,Connecticut-football only, temple,navy-football only,odu,Charlotte, east Carolina, uab,marshall,south Florida. Tulane and Tulsa to cusa. And a combination of 2 to new aac, between george mason,dayton,richmond,davidson and vcu

Would UCF jump if WVU is the only other ETZ team? The addition of WVU was a head-scratcher and with Texas and Oklahoma gone the money can not be that good for UCF without a little more ETZ support.

The only reason I see the Big 12 going back to 12 is if they add 3 or 4 ETZ teams and make an East division. If they simply knock the American to 9, then 50:50 they add a single team like UAB.

I kinda expect a 10-team minimum for CCGs when divisionless is finally allowed.

Honestly, if the Big 12 starts targeting two non ETZ teams then WVU may ask for entry to the AAC.

I think Cincinnati and Memphis will be picked up by big 12 to appease west virginia and smu,ucf,houston and byu or Colorado st will be in big 12. Sets up previous post

(07-22-2021 07:50 AM)jaybird44 Wrote: [ -> ]How about umass,Connecticut-football only, temple,navy-football only,odu,Charlotte, east Carolina, uab,marshall,south Florida. Tulane and Tulsa to cusa. And a combination of 2 to new aac, between george mason,dayton,richmond,davidson and vcu

That is better.

I still think you need to have a TV deal there significant enough to make it a no brainer for the schools and that is no guarantee.

Marshall could get a 2 million per school deal in the MAC and have low travel costs. Temple could have a 2 million per school deal in the MAC with less risk.

Again I think the AAC may lose 2 quickly and another 2+ in a couple of years once the XII media deal concludes and they go back to 12. AAC will be cautious about adding members which could be its ultimate undoing.

I think it depends on the cascading effects. If OU and Texas leave, is everyone looking for an exit in panic, or do they try and rebuild? I honestly think that most teams that could would try and find a new P5 home, since they couldn't trust the others to not find a new home at the first opening (something something prisoner's dilemma), and I think you see the Big XII picked apart. If every other P5 makes a grab for 16 members, then you're left with just 2 teams in the Big XII left. A Big XII in this status isn't super appealing, but being able to build out a conference with the 'best of the rest' that will probably be centered in the central time zone might be appealing to the potential schools.

My 2-minute look at maps not super serious new Big XII:
Big XII School 1
Big XII School 2
Houston
SMU
Memphis
Colorado State
Boise State
SDSU
UCF
USF
Navy/Wichita State
Cincinnati

(07-22-2021 07:45 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 07:37 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]Also this ain't 1995 anymore ECU is not going independent. Yes there are ECU fans who would lose their minds over being in a league with App/ODU/Charlotte, but as we've already seen from ECU leadership in the past they have pushed for ODU and Charlotte and pushed for/floated the ideas for a regional conference. With App and Coastal now at the FBS level and solid football programs you could make an extremely interesting mid-Atlantic/east coast conference from the list of ECU/Temple/Navy/Marshall/ODU/JMU(they'd move up for something like this IMO)/Charlotte/App/Coastal/Georgia State/Georgia Southern/USF. I don't think this scenario in any way happens, but it's more likely than the idea ECU would ever go independent.

The problem is there has to be 2.5 million per school of TV money for everyone to agree to leave their conferences, pay the exit fee and make it happen.

I just don't see that type of money for it and egos are a factor for some of these schools who are not going to play a conference with FBS start ups just to be in a conference.

Take ECU's "ego" out of this. The reality is ECU can not afford to be independent. Doesn't matter if some fans feelings would be hurt it's not an option. So even in fantasy never going to happen scenarios stop operating like that can be done, I promise you it can't and won't ECU is going to be in a league of some sort. The AAC isn't dissolving there's way too much money in just collecting exit fees than there is from joining any non-power league. Any team that the remaining B12 teams invited would join no questions asked, but lets go with the scenario you mentioned where the B12 added 4 AAC programs (don't see it but lets go with it) and then SMU joined the MWC (again don't see it but sure), and then just assume Navy would go back Indy. That leaves you ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, and Tulsa. There is no option those schools have that pays more than the exit fees they'd be collecting from Houston/UCF/Memphis/Cincy/SMU/Navy (not sure what their exit fee is if they leave). Marshall would choose to join that group before going back to the MAC. ODU/Charlotte/App would fight a literal death match to join it. Temple would only consider going back to the MAC if they could get the same FB only deal they had, and honestly I don't even see you guys wanting to offer that to them. The C-USA deal pays literally nothing Tulane and Tulsa would continue cashing buyout checks way before joining back with a league that already has way too many mouths to feed.

(07-22-2021 08:03 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 07:45 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 07:37 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]Also this ain't 1995 anymore ECU is not going independent. Yes there are ECU fans who would lose their minds over being in a league with App/ODU/Charlotte, but as we've already seen from ECU leadership in the past they have pushed for ODU and Charlotte and pushed for/floated the ideas for a regional conference. With App and Coastal now at the FBS level and solid football programs you could make an extremely interesting mid-Atlantic/east coast conference from the list of ECU/Temple/Navy/Marshall/ODU/JMU(they'd move up for something like this IMO)/Charlotte/App/Coastal/Georgia State/Georgia Southern/USF. I don't think this scenario in any way happens, but it's more likely than the idea ECU would ever go independent.

The problem is there has to be 2.5 million per school of TV money for everyone to agree to leave their conferences, pay the exit fee and make it happen.

I just don't see that type of money for it and egos are a factor for some of these schools who are not going to play a conference with FBS start ups just to be in a conference.

Take ECU's "ego" out of this. The reality is ECU can not afford to be independent. Doesn't matter if some fans feelings would be hurt it's not an option. So even in fantasy never going to happen scenarios stop operating like that can be done, I promise you it can't and won't ECU is going to be in a league of some sort. The AAC isn't dissolving there's way too much money in just collecting exit fees than there is from joining any non-power league. Any team that the remaining B12 teams invited would join no questions asked, but lets go with the scenario you mentioned where the B12 added 4 AAC programs (don't see it but lets go with it) and then SMU joined the MWC (again don't see it but sure), and then just assume Navy would go back Indy. That leaves you ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, and Tulsa. There is no option those schools have that pays more than the exit fees they'd be collecting from Houston/UCF/Memphis/Cincy/SMU/Navy (not sure what their exit fee is if they leave). Marshall would choose to join that group before going back to the MAC. ODU/Charlotte/App would fight a literal death match to join it. Temple would only consider going back to the MAC if they could get the same FB only deal they had, and honestly I don't even see you guys wanting to offer that to them. The C-USA deal pays literally nothing Tulane and Tulsa would continue cashing buyout checks way before joining back with a league that already has way too many mouths to feed.

CUSA would negotiate up $$$ with the new additions.

There will be so little money in the AAC nobody will want to join it.

I doubt that UT and OU bolt, but if they do, the Big XII would no longer be the Big Anything (pick a Roman numeral). Even when it was at full strength, it couldn't keep Texas A&M, Colorado, Missouri, and Nebraska from leaving for greener pastures. I don't think the remaining little sisters would have the clout and cachet to attract any schools away from another P5 conference. Neither do I think that any school in an intact and upwardly mobile AAC or even a cozy MWC would risk joining them. I believe what's left of the Big XII will disband and scatter -- a few to the AAC, a few to the MWC. KU maybe gets a B1G lifeboat because it's AAU (barely in the lowest tier) and a basketball blue-blood. I don't know how poor WVU will fare. West Virginia doesn't seem like a good fit with either the SEC or ACC, so maybe it goes to the AAC.

(07-22-2021 08:09 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:03 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 07:45 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 07:37 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]Also this ain't 1995 anymore ECU is not going independent. Yes there are ECU fans who would lose their minds over being in a league with App/ODU/Charlotte, but as we've already seen from ECU leadership in the past they have pushed for ODU and Charlotte and pushed for/floated the ideas for a regional conference. With App and Coastal now at the FBS level and solid football programs you could make an extremely interesting mid-Atlantic/east coast conference from the list of ECU/Temple/Navy/Marshall/ODU/JMU(they'd move up for something like this IMO)/Charlotte/App/Coastal/Georgia State/Georgia Southern/USF. I don't think this scenario in any way happens, but it's more likely than the idea ECU would ever go independent.

The problem is there has to be 2.5 million per school of TV money for everyone to agree to leave their conferences, pay the exit fee and make it happen.

I just don't see that type of money for it and egos are a factor for some of these schools who are not going to play a conference with FBS start ups just to be in a conference.

Take ECU's "ego" out of this. The reality is ECU can not afford to be independent. Doesn't matter if some fans feelings would be hurt it's not an option. So even in fantasy never going to happen scenarios stop operating like that can be done, I promise you it can't and won't ECU is going to be in a league of some sort. The AAC isn't dissolving there's way too much money in just collecting exit fees than there is from joining any non-power league. Any team that the remaining B12 teams invited would join no questions asked, but lets go with the scenario you mentioned where the B12 added 4 AAC programs (don't see it but lets go with it) and then SMU joined the MWC (again don't see it but sure), and then just assume Navy would go back Indy. That leaves you ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, and Tulsa. There is no option those schools have that pays more than the exit fees they'd be collecting from Houston/UCF/Memphis/Cincy/SMU/Navy (not sure what their exit fee is if they leave). Marshall would choose to join that group before going back to the MAC. ODU/Charlotte/App would fight a literal death match to join it. Temple would only consider going back to the MAC if they could get the same FB only deal they had, and honestly I don't even see you guys wanting to offer that to them. The C-USA deal pays literally nothing Tulane and Tulsa would continue cashing buyout checks way before joining back with a league that already has way too many mouths to feed.

CUSA would negotiate up $$$ with the new additions.

There will be so little money in the AAC nobody will want to join it.

So wait the league of ECU, Tulane, Tulsa, USF, Temple would be offered so little TV money no one would join it but adding Tulane and Tulsa add enough value to C-USA to negotiate their money up dramatically enough to make Tulane and Tulsa give up their share of 50-60 million in buyout money?

(07-22-2021 08:02 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]I think it depends on the cascading effects. If OU and Texas leave, is everyone looking for an exit in panic, or do they try and rebuild? I honestly think that most teams that could would try and find a new P5 home, since they couldn't trust the others to not find a new home at the first opening (something something prisoner's dilemma), and I think you see the Big XII picked apart. If every other P5 makes a grab for 16 members, then you're left with just 2 teams in the Big XII left. A Big XII in this status isn't super appealing, but being able to build out a conference with the 'best of the rest' that will probably be centered in the central time zone might be appealing to the potential schools.

My 2-minute look at maps not super serious new Big XII:
Big XII School 1
Big XII School 2
Houston
SMU
Memphis
Colorado State
Boise State
SDSU
UCF
USF
Navy/Wichita State
Cincinnati

I have pondered this scenario many times and it is not farfetched. The league you outline would be very solid.

(07-22-2021 08:17 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:09 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:03 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 07:45 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 07:37 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]Also this ain't 1995 anymore ECU is not going independent. Yes there are ECU fans who would lose their minds over being in a league with App/ODU/Charlotte, but as we've already seen from ECU leadership in the past they have pushed for ODU and Charlotte and pushed for/floated the ideas for a regional conference. With App and Coastal now at the FBS level and solid football programs you could make an extremely interesting mid-Atlantic/east coast conference from the list of ECU/Temple/Navy/Marshall/ODU/JMU(they'd move up for something like this IMO)/Charlotte/App/Coastal/Georgia State/Georgia Southern/USF. I don't think this scenario in any way happens, but it's more likely than the idea ECU would ever go independent.

The problem is there has to be 2.5 million per school of TV money for everyone to agree to leave their conferences, pay the exit fee and make it happen.

I just don't see that type of money for it and egos are a factor for some of these schools who are not going to play a conference with FBS start ups just to be in a conference.

Take ECU's "ego" out of this. The reality is ECU can not afford to be independent. Doesn't matter if some fans feelings would be hurt it's not an option. So even in fantasy never going to happen scenarios stop operating like that can be done, I promise you it can't and won't ECU is going to be in a league of some sort. The AAC isn't dissolving there's way too much money in just collecting exit fees than there is from joining any non-power league. Any team that the remaining B12 teams invited would join no questions asked, but lets go with the scenario you mentioned where the B12 added 4 AAC programs (don't see it but lets go with it) and then SMU joined the MWC (again don't see it but sure), and then just assume Navy would go back Indy. That leaves you ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, and Tulsa. There is no option those schools have that pays more than the exit fees they'd be collecting from Houston/UCF/Memphis/Cincy/SMU/Navy (not sure what their exit fee is if they leave). Marshall would choose to join that group before going back to the MAC. ODU/Charlotte/App would fight a literal death match to join it. Temple would only consider going back to the MAC if they could get the same FB only deal they had, and honestly I don't even see you guys wanting to offer that to them. The C-USA deal pays literally nothing Tulane and Tulsa would continue cashing buyout checks way before joining back with a league that already has way too many mouths to feed.

CUSA would negotiate up $$$ with the new additions.

There will be so little money in the AAC nobody will want to join it.

So wait the league of ECU, Tulane, Tulsa, USF, Temple would be offered so little TV money no one would join it but adding Tulane and Tulsa add enough value to C-USA to negotiate their money up dramatically enough to make Tulane and Tulsa give up their share of 50-60 million in buyout money?

Membership losses to the AAC I expect will come in waves. Two will leave and everyone still in the AAC will collect those exit fees.

Then two more will leave and those staying will get the exit fees etc.

its not until after the exit fees have cycled through will they vote to dissolve the AAC.

If any FBS conference actually votes to dissolve I will eat my hat. There is so much value in being a signatory in the CFP, as well as having the autobid to March Madness, that a dissolution will never happen. Now, you might have only 1/2 members left, but the ability to build out a league of the best of the rest (even if the rest is just C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC) is extremely valuable and desirable.

(07-22-2021 08:44 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]If any FBS conference actually votes to dissolve I will eat my hat. There is so much value in being a signatory in the CFP, as well as having the autobid to March Madness, that a dissolution will never happen. Now, you might have only 1/2 members left, but the ability to build out a league of the best of the rest (even if the rest is just C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC) is extremely valuable and desirable.

We know about the identity problems CUSA/SBC have with overlapping territories. Having a 3rd FBS conference in the Southeast is jus going to make the problems worse.

A conference with Tulsa, Tulane, So Miss, UAB, ODU, ECU, USF, Temple is just not going to be a head and shoulder type conference over CUSA/SBC.

(07-22-2021 08:51 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:44 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]If any FBS conference actually votes to dissolve I will eat my hat. There is so much value in being a signatory in the CFP, as well as having the autobid to March Madness, that a dissolution will never happen. Now, you might have only 1/2 members left, but the ability to build out a league of the best of the rest (even if the rest is just C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC) is extremely valuable and desirable.

We know about the identity problems CUSA/SBC have with overlapping territories. Having a 3rd FBS conference in the Southeast is jus going to make the problems worse.

A conference with Tulsa, Tulane, So Miss, UAB, ODU, ECU, USF, Temple is just not going to be a head and shoulder type conference over CUSA/SBC.

Yeah but why would ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, or Tulsa ever choose to rejoin a different league when they can just choose their favorites from the others?

Also, I'd say that the new AAC if only those five are left would be: ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, ODU, Marshall, UAB, Georgia State, App State, WKU, Charlotte. Would be a big blow to C-USA/SBC and they'd have to react as well.

(07-22-2021 08:52 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:51 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:44 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]If any FBS conference actually votes to dissolve I will eat my hat. There is so much value in being a signatory in the CFP, as well as having the autobid to March Madness, that a dissolution will never happen. Now, you might have only 1/2 members left, but the ability to build out a league of the best of the rest (even if the rest is just C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC) is extremely valuable and desirable.

We know about the identity problems CUSA/SBC have with overlapping territories. Having a 3rd FBS conference in the Southeast is jus going to make the problems worse.

A conference with Tulsa, Tulane, So Miss, UAB, ODU, ECU, USF, Temple is just not going to be a head and shoulder type conference over CUSA/SBC.

Yeah but why would ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, or Tulsa ever choose to rejoin a different league when they can just choose their favorites from the others?

Because the other leagues have their own exit fees and schools are not going to take the risk of joining a grouping which won't survive 5 years.

Those schools are also all in their own regions making it difficult. If the 5 were UMass, Buffalo, Temple, Marshall, ECU that would be different as there would be some geographic coherence around it.

That is why I think its easier to just join the MAC/CUSA/SBC over trying to pluck, or just go the independent route in a couple of cases thinking it might set you up for a XII invite if you win.

If the XII takes UCF, UC, UM, UH and ECU started to win big as an independent it might set them up for a XII invite. ECU also needs the big names in the stadium to help fill it up which a depleted AAC would hurt.

(07-22-2021 08:26 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:17 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:09 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:03 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 07:45 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]The problem is there has to be 2.5 million per school of TV money for everyone to agree to leave their conferences, pay the exit fee and make it happen.

I just don't see that type of money for it and egos are a factor for some of these schools who are not going to play a conference with FBS start ups just to be in a conference.

Take ECU's "ego" out of this. The reality is ECU can not afford to be independent. Doesn't matter if some fans feelings would be hurt it's not an option. So even in fantasy never going to happen scenarios stop operating like that can be done, I promise you it can't and won't ECU is going to be in a league of some sort. The AAC isn't dissolving there's way too much money in just collecting exit fees than there is from joining any non-power league. Any team that the remaining B12 teams invited would join no questions asked, but lets go with the scenario you mentioned where the B12 added 4 AAC programs (don't see it but lets go with it) and then SMU joined the MWC (again don't see it but sure), and then just assume Navy would go back Indy. That leaves you ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, and Tulsa. There is no option those schools have that pays more than the exit fees they'd be collecting from Houston/UCF/Memphis/Cincy/SMU/Navy (not sure what their exit fee is if they leave). Marshall would choose to join that group before going back to the MAC. ODU/Charlotte/App would fight a literal death match to join it. Temple would only consider going back to the MAC if they could get the same FB only deal they had, and honestly I don't even see you guys wanting to offer that to them. The C-USA deal pays literally nothing Tulane and Tulsa would continue cashing buyout checks way before joining back with a league that already has way too many mouths to feed.

CUSA would negotiate up $$$ with the new additions.

There will be so little money in the AAC nobody will want to join it.

So wait the league of ECU, Tulane, Tulsa, USF, Temple would be offered so little TV money no one would join it but adding Tulane and Tulsa add enough value to C-USA to negotiate their money up dramatically enough to make Tulane and Tulsa give up their share of 50-60 million in buyout money?

Membership losses to the AAC I expect will come in waves. Two will leave and everyone still in the AAC will collect those exit fees.

Then two more will leave and those staying will get the exit fees etc.

its not until after the exit fees have cycled through will they vote to dissolve the AAC.

Problem with that is the league is going to back fill at least to 9 or 10 after each departure, resetting this timeline. Maybe they add no one right now if 2 leave and just stay at 9, but if 2 more leave they will immediately add 2 more. You are actually proposing the scenario that a dissolution is least likely. You need basically 8 or 9 to leave immediately and have the votes to shut it down right now to make this happen, and that's not going to happen.

(07-22-2021 08:59 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:52 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:51 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:44 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]If any FBS conference actually votes to dissolve I will eat my hat. There is so much value in being a signatory in the CFP, as well as having the autobid to March Madness, that a dissolution will never happen. Now, you might have only 1/2 members left, but the ability to build out a league of the best of the rest (even if the rest is just C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC) is extremely valuable and desirable.

We know about the identity problems CUSA/SBC have with overlapping territories. Having a 3rd FBS conference in the Southeast is jus going to make the problems worse.

A conference with Tulsa, Tulane, So Miss, UAB, ODU, ECU, USF, Temple is just not going to be a head and shoulder type conference over CUSA/SBC.

Yeah but why would ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, or Tulsa ever choose to rejoin a different league when they can just choose their favorites from the others?

Because the other leagues have their own exit fees and schools are not going to take the risk of joining a grouping which won't survive 5 years.

Those schools are also all in their own regions making it difficult. If the 5 were UMass, Buffalo, Temple, Marshall, ECU that would be different as there would be some geographic coherence around it.

That is why I think its easier to just join the MAC/CUSA/SBC over trying to pluck, or just go the independent route in a couple of cases thinking it might set you up for a XII invite if you win.

If the XII takes UCF, UC, UM, UH and ECU started to win big as an independent it might set them up for a XII invite. ECU also needs the big names in the stadium to help fill it up which a depleted AAC would hurt.

ODU has been *dying* for a chance to join/make an east coast based conference. Even if every single other team leaves I bet you that ODU would beg to join just so it could try to make a viable east coast conference. And with a March Madness autobid and being a current signatory to the CFP, I think they would be able to make it happen.

(07-22-2021 08:59 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:52 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:51 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:44 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]If any FBS conference actually votes to dissolve I will eat my hat. There is so much value in being a signatory in the CFP, as well as having the autobid to March Madness, that a dissolution will never happen. Now, you might have only 1/2 members left, but the ability to build out a league of the best of the rest (even if the rest is just C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC) is extremely valuable and desirable.

We know about the identity problems CUSA/SBC have with overlapping territories. Having a 3rd FBS conference in the Southeast is jus going to make the problems worse.

A conference with Tulsa, Tulane, So Miss, UAB, ODU, ECU, USF, Temple is just not going to be a head and shoulder type conference over CUSA/SBC.

Yeah but why would ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, or Tulsa ever choose to rejoin a different league when they can just choose their favorites from the others?

Because the other leagues have their own exit fees and schools are not going to take the risk of joining a grouping which won't survive 5 years.

Those schools are also all in their own regions making it difficult. If the 5 were UMass, Buffalo, Temple, Marshall, ECU that would be different as there would be some geographic coherence around it.

That is why I think its easier to just join the MAC/CUSA/SBC over trying to pluck, or just go the independent route in a couple of cases thinking it might set you up for a XII invite if you win.

If the XII takes UCF, UC, UM, UH and ECU started to win big as an independent it might set them up for a XII invite. ECU also needs the big names in the stadium to help fill it up which a depleted AAC would hurt.

Why would it not survive 5 years? Once new schools join they are part of the league with voting rights, making it harder to kill for the remaining original members. ECU is not going independent, so again take that out of any calculus you are using to come up with this. Then go ask C-USA schools what their TV deal pays.

(07-22-2021 08:52 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:51 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-22-2021 08:44 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]If any FBS conference actually votes to dissolve I will eat my hat. There is so much value in being a signatory in the CFP, as well as having the autobid to March Madness, that a dissolution will never happen. Now, you might have only 1/2 members left, but the ability to build out a league of the best of the rest (even if the rest is just C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC) is extremely valuable and desirable.

We know about the identity problems CUSA/SBC have with overlapping territories. Having a 3rd FBS conference in the Southeast is jus going to make the problems worse.

A conference with Tulsa, Tulane, So Miss, UAB, ODU, ECU, USF, Temple is just not going to be a head and shoulder type conference over CUSA/SBC.

Also, I'd say that the new AAC if only those five are left would be: ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, ODU, Marshall, UAB, Georgia State, App State, WKU, Charlotte. Would be a big blow to C-USA/SBC and they'd have to react as well.

That is the way it has gone down in the past but I think CUSA/SBC teams are tired of moving and going to see if they can poach.

Again I would not assume USF and ECU would sign up for a rebuild when they could get better schedule as an independent.

If there was a rebuild, a more valuable one would be focusing on the NE and dropping the SW teams like Tulane and Tulsa. UMass and Buffalo to go with Temple could form the core of a NE conference with ECU/USF not bad regional fits. UConn FB only possibly. ODU I believe would work too.

WKU I don't see at all. App probably not. UAB is questionable with a NE strategy. Georgia State would offer more value than these 3.

If Texas and OU bolt for the SEC, than I think Kansas will leave for the BIG10. Kansas basketball holds great value for the BIG10, and since they took a terrible Rutgers program, they obviously value academics more than athletics. It would be a win-win for both parties. That would leave the Big12 with 7 programs...

To Be a 10 Team Conference
I think the Big12 adds BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF- Oklahoma State's boosters would use this opportunity to step out of OU's shadow, and cough up big bucks to be the new kingpin of the conference, and they along with Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU wouldn't want any more Texas programs to compete with for those prized Texas recruits.

To Be a 12 Team Conference
I think the Big12 adds BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, & Colorado State. These additions would insure the Big12 would be best 2nd tier football conference and remain a strong basketball conference. It is probably the best they could do under the circumstances.