I think we can all agree, especially after his disappointing second year, for him to be considered a potential first or second round draft pick is really quite amazing and a testament to the coaching staff for his ongoing development and for his hard work and dedication to improve.
(01-19-2022 08:55 PM)Cat-Man Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2022 06:59 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]That sight is wrong if they think his numbers were padded by quick screens. Uc did very little of that. He was one of the leaders nationally in air yards per attempt. He was one of the qbs with the fewest cheap yards in the country.
That's a pretty professional looking sight but I'm not sure anyone in the know runs it. Looks like a guy with like 40 twitter followers best i can tell.
You might be right. The multitude of other sites I've read is that Ridder's other weakness is ball placement. He has trouble placing the ball where his receiver can gain additional YAC. But I'd like to see a link where "fewest cheap yards in the country" are measured. From what I've read, the NCAA doesn't keep track of "air yards" like the NFL does.
Ncaa doesn't track it but the data is out there (guessing you have to pay for it)... but here's the data on des from 538's preview of the Bama game.
Quote:Cincinnati enters as the lesser team on both sides of the ball, but they do have a projected first-round pick in QB Desmond Ridder, who leads all playoff signal-callers in air yards per attempt (9.97) and adjusted completion percentage (74.4 percent).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our...538twitter
(01-19-2022 11:03 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2022 08:55 PM)Cat-Man Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2022 06:59 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]That sight is wrong if they think his numbers were padded by quick screens. Uc did very little of that. He was one of the leaders nationally in air yards per attempt. He was one of the qbs with the fewest cheap yards in the country.
That's a pretty professional looking sight but I'm not sure anyone in the know runs it. Looks like a guy with like 40 twitter followers best i can tell.
You might be right. The multitude of other sites I've read is that Ridder's other weakness is ball placement. He has trouble placing the ball where his receiver can gain additional YAC. But I'd like to see a link where "fewest cheap yards in the country" are measured. From what I've read, the NCAA doesn't keep track of "air yards" like the NFL does.
Ncaa doesn't track it but the data is out there (guessing you have to pay for it)... but here's the data on des from 538's preview of the Bama game.
Quote:Cincinnati enters as the lesser team on both sides of the ball, but they do have a projected first-round pick in QB Desmond Ridder, who leads all playoff signal-callers in air yards per attempt (9.97) and adjusted completion percentage (74.4 percent).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our...538twitter
I'll make the counter for him...leading nationally, and leading Stetson Bennett and Cade McNamara are two very different things
. Des had a very good season that showcased many of his potential strengths and areas for development. If anything the poster's comparison to someone like Tim Tebow gives MORE credence to Des being a 1st rounder honestly. If a team was willing to take a stab at a guy who had FAR more red flags than Ridder does in the 1st, then I'd say thats point positive that Ridder could be as well. How he develops is an unknown to all of us...Josh Allen (his closest comp, in a VERY weird mirror) was someone who looked like a 3-and-out QB after year one, and something clicked. All I'm saying is that something clearly changed with Des this year from the last two, and I'm giving him a chance to prove he doesn't belong before telling him he doesn't.
(01-20-2022 07:04 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ][
I'll make the counter for him...leading nationally, and leading Stetson Bennett and Cade McNamara are two very different things . .
And what about Heisman trophy winner Bryce Young?
From my experience looking at air yards stats that number is elite and would be among the nation's leaders
(01-20-2022 07:04 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ]If anything the poster's comparison to someone like Tim Tebow gives MORE credence to Des being a 1st rounder honestly. If a team was willing to take a stab at a guy who had FAR more red flags than Ridder does in the 1st, then I'd say thats point positive that Ridder could be as well.
i think it's also worth bringing up that, at least based upon some light research in the google machine, the Tebow pick was an outlier as compared to the conventional wisdom of his draft projection. All this to say that only one team needs to fall in love with Des for him to be a first rounder.
Throwing air yard jump balls to Alec Pierce doesn't make you elite.
To be clear, I'm not saying Des WON'T be drafted in the 1st and 2nd rd. He most likely will. And I'm not saying he didn't make tremendous strides from year 1 to year 4. My initial point was that in MY OPINION, he won't be a successful NFL QB. I hope I'm proven wrong.
A lot of those air yard jump balls to Pierce were some of the most NFL throws Des will have to make. Specifically the weak shoulder go route to the corner in the red zone. Pierce is going to make a living off Mossing people if he can find the right QB.
(01-20-2022 07:16 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (01-20-2022 07:04 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ][
I'll make the counter for him...leading nationally, and leading Stetson Bennett and Cade McNamara are two very different things . .
And what about Heisman trophy winner Bryce Young?
From my experience looking at air yards stats that number is elite and would be among the nation's leaders
Oh I know that, I was simply responding as I'd imagine someone else would so as too cut off that argument.
(01-20-2022 08:07 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of those air yard jump balls to Pierce were some of the most NFL throws Des will have to make. Specifically the weak shoulder go route to the corner in the red zone. Pierce is going to make a living off Mossing people if he can find the right QB.
Yea...he's not just throwing it up to Pierce.
Watch the two Notre Dame sideline throws to Pierce. He throws both before Pierce has created any separation, but anticipates that he has his man beat. He also throws it early enough and gives it the right amount if air so that the Safety who is giving help can't get there in time to break up the play. Both balls are great examples of anticipation, timing and accuracy.
Several of the TD throws where Pierce goes up and gets are examples of perfect ball placement...and where he puts it largely depends on how the corner is defending Pierce. The Houston TD the corner had inside leverage and he puts it back shoulder, outside. The Indiana corner tried to take away the inside and he put it outside back shoulder. His ball placement this year on intermediate/deep throws was often a sight to behold.
For me his two biggest weaknesses are a tendency to sail or be a little off on short crosses and a failure to recognize disguised pressures. So many of the criticisms of Des to me seem like criticisms I would have made in 2019. In 2019 I'd have never thought Des would be at this level. Huge credit to him. He can read a defense, go through progressions and has great ball placement on NFL type throws. Will that translate to the speed of the next level? That's always one of the hardest things to anticipate. There are very few sure thing NFL prospects at QB. But I think Des has a chance to be a really good NFL QB.
(01-20-2022 09:31 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (01-20-2022 08:07 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of those air yard jump balls to Pierce were some of the most NFL throws Des will have to make. Specifically the weak shoulder go route to the corner in the red zone. Pierce is going to make a living off Mossing people if he can find the right QB.
Yea...he's not just throwing it up to Pierce.
Watch the two Notre Dame sideline throws to Pierce. He throws both before Pierce has created any separation, but anticipates that he has his man beat. He also throws it early enough and gives it the right amount if air so that the Safety who is giving help can't get there in time to break up the play. Both balls are great examples of anticipation, timing and accuracy.
Several of the TD throws where Pierce goes up and gets are examples of perfect ball placement...and where he puts it largely depends on how the corner is defending Pierce. The Houston TD the corner had inside leverage and he puts it back shoulder, outside. The Indiana corner tried to take away the inside and he put it outside back shoulder. His ball placement this year on intermediate/deep throws was often a sight to behold.
For me his two biggest weaknesses are a tendency to sail or be a little off on short crosses and a failure to recognize disguised pressures. So many of the criticisms of Des to me seem like criticisms I would have made in 2019. In 2019 I'd have never thought Des would be at this level. Huge credit to him. He can read a defense, go through progressions and has great ball placement on NFL type throws. Will that translate to the speed of the next level? That's always one of the hardest things to anticipate. There are very few sure thing NFL prospects at QB. But I think Des has a chance to be a really good NFL QB.
He has really struggled throughout his career with leading receivers in crossing patterns...that needs to get fixed quickly if he wants to stick, but unfortunately that's one of the harder skills for any QB because it requires prediction, processing, and accuracy, not one or two of the three. The weird thing is, he NAILS flags and comebacks, plus sail and flood concepts, which are three you'd think would be even harder. I've seen very few QBs who can place balls in the space between zone levels outside the hashes the way that he can and THAT is why NFL guys are willing to take a chance.
I'd also argue shorting his deep balls over the top of defenses has been an issue, even though it has gotten a bit better this past year. He legitimately injured his best receiver last year because of it, and this year put a couple of guys into the blue tent for a spell.
(01-20-2022 09:31 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (01-20-2022 08:07 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of those air yard jump balls to Pierce were some of the most NFL throws Des will have to make. Specifically the weak shoulder go route to the corner in the red zone. Pierce is going to make a living off Mossing people if he can find the right QB.
Yea...he's not just throwing it up to Pierce.
Watch the two Notre Dame sideline throws to Pierce. He throws both before Pierce has created any separation, but anticipates that he has his man beat. He also throws it early enough and gives it the right amount if air so that the Safety who is giving help can't get there in time to break up the play. Both balls are great examples of anticipation, timing and accuracy.
Several of the TD throws where Pierce goes up and gets are examples of perfect ball placement...and where he puts it largely depends on how the corner is defending Pierce. The Houston TD the corner had inside leverage and he puts it back shoulder, outside. The Indiana corner tried to take away the inside and he put it outside back shoulder. His ball placement this year on intermediate/deep throws was often a sight to behold.
For me his two biggest weaknesses are a tendency to sail or be a little off on short crosses and a failure to recognize disguised pressures. So many of the criticisms of Des to me seem like criticisms I would have made in 2019. In 2019 I'd have never thought Des would be at this level. Huge credit to him. He can read a defense, go through progressions and has great ball placement on NFL type throws. Will that translate to the speed of the next level? That's always one of the hardest things to anticipate. There are very few sure thing NFL prospects at QB. But I think Des has a chance to be a really good NFL QB.
I've read 20-30 draft evaluation sites on Des, and they all have said the EXACT OPPOSITE of what I highlighted that you praise about Des. The common consensus weakness is his accuracy and ball placement.
Let us also be clear that Des is also benefitting from a VERY WEAK QB draft class. (some saying the weakest class since 2013) That's not his fault. Timing is everything. Good for him. But a stronger QB class year, Des is more of a middle to late round pick.
(01-20-2022 10:32 AM)Cat-Man Wrote: [ -> ] (01-20-2022 09:31 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (01-20-2022 08:07 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of those air yard jump balls to Pierce were some of the most NFL throws Des will have to make. Specifically the weak shoulder go route to the corner in the red zone. Pierce is going to make a living off Mossing people if he can find the right QB.
Yea...he's not just throwing it up to Pierce.
Watch the two Notre Dame sideline throws to Pierce. He throws both before Pierce has created any separation, but anticipates that he has his man beat. He also throws it early enough and gives it the right amount if air so that the Safety who is giving help can't get there in time to break up the play. Both balls are great examples of anticipation, timing and accuracy.
Several of the TD throws where Pierce goes up and gets are examples of perfect ball placement...and where he puts it largely depends on how the corner is defending Pierce. The Houston TD the corner had inside leverage and he puts it back shoulder, outside. The Indiana corner tried to take away the inside and he put it outside back shoulder. His ball placement this year on intermediate/deep throws was often a sight to behold.
For me his two biggest weaknesses are a tendency to sail or be a little off on short crosses and a failure to recognize disguised pressures. So many of the criticisms of Des to me seem like criticisms I would have made in 2019. In 2019 I'd have never thought Des would be at this level. Huge credit to him. He can read a defense, go through progressions and has great ball placement on NFL type throws. Will that translate to the speed of the next level? That's always one of the hardest things to anticipate. There are very few sure thing NFL prospects at QB. But I think Des has a chance to be a really good NFL QB.
I've read 20-30 draft evaluation sites on Des, and they all have said the EXACT OPPOSITE of what I highlighted that you praise about Des. The common consensus weakness is his accuracy and ball placement.
Let us also be clear that Des is also benefitting from a VERY WEAK QB draft class. (some saying the weakest class since 2013) That's not his fault. Timing is everything. Good for him. But a stronger QB class year, Des is more of a middle to late round pick.
He had more air yards per completion and a higher adjust completion percentage (basically adjusting completion percentage for the difficulty of the throws) than the Heisman Trophy winner. I've seen draft evaluations that say both things. I do think, as discussed with Bearcatman, Des has issues with ball placement/accuracy/sailing balls on some crossing routes, particularly shallow crosses, but his accuracy overall was exceptional this season. The route trees UC runs and the passes he is asked to make are also more NFL type plays than most college QBs. That makes me feel even better about his accuracy numbers.
(01-20-2022 10:07 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (01-20-2022 09:31 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]For me his two biggest weaknesses are a tendency to sail or be a little off on short crosses and a failure to recognize disguised pressures. So many of the criticisms of Des to me seem like criticisms I would have made in 2019. In 2019 I'd have never thought Des would be at this level. Huge credit to him. He can read a defense, go through progressions and has great ball placement on NFL type throws. Will that translate to the speed of the next level? That's always one of the hardest things to anticipate. There are very few sure thing NFL prospects at QB. But I think Des has a chance to be a really good NFL QB.
He has really struggled throughout his career with leading receivers in crossing patterns...that needs to get fixed quickly if he wants to stick, but unfortunately that's one of the harder skills for any QB because it requires prediction, processing, and accuracy, not one or two of the three. The weird thing is, he NAILS flags and comebacks, plus sail and flood concepts, which are three you'd think would be even harder. I've seen very few QBs who can place balls in the space between zone levels outside the hashes the way that he can and THAT is why NFL guys are willing to take a chance.
I'd also argue shorting his deep balls over the top of defenses has been an issue, even though it has gotten a bit better this past year. He legitimately injured his best receiver last year because of it, and this year put a couple of guys into the blue tent for a spell.
I agree with this report. Des has never been good at throwing the short routes with timing and accuracy. Keep in mind accuracy on short routes doesn't show as much in completion percentage as it does in allowing receivers to catch the ball with the ability to get yards after the catch.
I like Des' size, athleticism. His arm strength is good enough to play at the next level; I'd guess it'd be average. His character is unquestioned. What I doubt is his ability to consistently make NFL throws with timing and accuracy. I would like him as a 3rd/4th round guy as a high quality backup/spot starter. But with his size, athleticism, and character he's going to get drafted in the top 50 picks because it only takes one team to fall in love. Remember this guy has started 50 games; he's much more developed than many prospects coming out.
(01-20-2022 10:57 AM)RealDeal Wrote: [ -> ] (01-20-2022 10:07 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (01-20-2022 09:31 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]For me his two biggest weaknesses are a tendency to sail or be a little off on short crosses and a failure to recognize disguised pressures. So many of the criticisms of Des to me seem like criticisms I would have made in 2019. In 2019 I'd have never thought Des would be at this level. Huge credit to him. He can read a defense, go through progressions and has great ball placement on NFL type throws. Will that translate to the speed of the next level? That's always one of the hardest things to anticipate. There are very few sure thing NFL prospects at QB. But I think Des has a chance to be a really good NFL QB.
He has really struggled throughout his career with leading receivers in crossing patterns...that needs to get fixed quickly if he wants to stick, but unfortunately that's one of the harder skills for any QB because it requires prediction, processing, and accuracy, not one or two of the three. The weird thing is, he NAILS flags and comebacks, plus sail and flood concepts, which are three you'd think would be even harder. I've seen very few QBs who can place balls in the space between zone levels outside the hashes the way that he can and THAT is why NFL guys are willing to take a chance.
I'd also argue shorting his deep balls over the top of defenses has been an issue, even though it has gotten a bit better this past year. He legitimately injured his best receiver last year because of it, and this year put a couple of guys into the blue tent for a spell.
I agree with this report. Des has never been good at throwing the short routes with timing and accuracy. Keep in mind accuracy on short routes doesn't show as much in completion percentage as it does in allowing receivers to catch the ball with the ability to get yards after the catch.
I like Des' size, athleticism. His arm strength is good enough to play at the next level; I'd guess it'd be average. His character is unquestioned. What I doubt is his ability to consistently make NFL throws with timing and accuracy. I would like him as a 3rd/4th round guy as a high quality backup/spot starter. But with his size, athleticism, and character he's going to get drafted in the top 50 picks because it only takes one team to fall in love. Remember this guy has started 50 games; he's much more developed than many prospects coming out.
Oh I've said from the start of last year on that I think his ceiling in a normal draft is as a guy in the middle rounds. This is not a normal draft year, and that's why I think he's a potential first rounder...he got lucky (and was incredibly prescient by staying in school another year).
Looking at the mock drafts we are going to see some changes. They have not picked the out come right in a lot of the games in the playoff.
PFF puts Des and Sauce at 9 and 11 in their latest mock drafts
FAR more shockingly...CBS Sports has BRYAN COOK going #32 in their latest mock.
(01-31-2022 11:38 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ]PFF puts Des and Sauce at 9 and 11 in their latest mock drafts
FAR more shockingly...CBS Sports has BRYAN COOK going #32 in their latest mock.
If so, that means he's going to the Bengals!