(04-04-2022 07:16 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]This Mock has Sauce at 5 and Des at 8.
Woah...even though I think Des has a chance to be a serviceable starter in the NFL (Jared Goff level of production), that is an insanely high pick to use on him.
There is a new Mock Draft published it seems like every day. After a while, you just need to stop reading them. Who really knows when your favorite player will be drafted. It seems like Kiper puts one out at least once a week. It's like picking the basketball tourney bracket for next year. I'm sure someone has already produced a bracket for next year.
I could be wrong but from everything i've seen reported my gut says Ridder will be the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd QB taken in the draft. But draft kings sportsbook has him the fifth best odds to be QB1 (+2500). I laid some money on it. I think there's an outside chance he's the first QB off the board.
(04-04-2022 07:54 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 07:16 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]This Mock has Sauce at 5 and Des at 8.
Woah...even though I think Des has a chance to be a serviceable starter in the NFL (Jared Goff level of production), that is an insanely high pick to use on him.
I share your sentiments.
But Ridder has been kind of an underdog his entire career. The intangible thing with him is numbers be damned- he just wins. His measurables have kept improving and I don’t know if he has hit his ceiling yet. Not sure if the winner mojo translates to the NFL, but it’s hard to bet against him at this point.
(04-04-2022 09:34 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote: [ -> ]I could be wrong but from everything i've seen reported my gut says Ridder will be the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd QB taken in the draft. But draft kings sportsbook has him the fifth best odds to be QB1 (+2500). I laid some money on it. I think there's an outside chance he's the first QB off the board.
I think that's a very good value bet. None of these qbs are can't miss guys. It's about which QB a particular staff likes, and that could easily make Des first guy off the board.
(04-04-2022 09:39 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 09:34 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote: [ -> ]I could be wrong but from everything i've seen reported my gut says Ridder will be the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd QB taken in the draft. But draft kings sportsbook has him the fifth best odds to be QB1 (+2500). I laid some money on it. I think there's an outside chance he's the first QB off the board.
I think that's a very good value bet. None of these qbs are can't miss guys. It's about which QB a particular staff likes, and that could easily make Des first guy off the board.
Oh for sure, incredible value...I just went and checked and it's now up to +3000. I threw a 10er on it even though I know it won't hit.
Little notes like this tell alot about how even diehard UC fans can miss the potential Des has in his mechanics. Every scout I've read continues to talk about his "NFL-readiness" with reading coverages, making his progressions, responding to pressure in the pocket, and of course his ability to extend plays when all else fails.
(04-04-2022 01:34 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]
Little notes like this tell alot about how even diehard UC fans can miss the potential Des has in his mechanics. Every scout I've read continues to talk about his "NFL-readiness" with reading coverages, making his progressions, responding to pressure in the pocket, and of course his ability to extend plays when all else fails.
This really shows my primary misgivings with Ridder though...his occasional very bad inaccuracy issues have nothing to do with mechanics and everything to do with being able to place balls where receivers can continue plays/not get brought back into coverage. That is what got Pierce injured last season, and nearly cost us both Pierce and Tucker in games this year...not to mention not really being able to throw between the hashes in the intermediate game, which made us more predictable as an offense, even if our outside receivers were good enough to win in most indie situations on the outside. We did run quite a few NFL concepts, but they were mostly outside of the hash concepts (floods, boots, spots, and sails) which played out of his primary weakness with hitting receivers in stride and allowed for there to be far less risk on overthrows and inaccurate passes with the extra security of passes going out of bounds. His worst plays were when he attempted to throw over the middle, as most, if not all of his INTs came that way, along with many of his incompletions, and Denbrock/Gino schemed away from it.
You can see the exact point where they made that decision...right after the USF game his junior year. We used to run a ton of mesh and 22s out of doubles and inside floods and hi-lo concepts out of bunch and trips, along with the release being an inside release (mostly slants) for our boundary guys instead of a fly release on the backside of the action, but that SMU game, we pulled everything back, made a ton more throws to the sidelines and on outside action, and the passing game improved immensely. You very rarely, if ever, saw us run ANY inside concepts after that game for the remaining time Des was on campus, and that's smart coaching, utilizing strengths and scheming out weaknesses in your own personnel.
The problem with that is that if you have an inability to attack the middle of the field as an offense, you're going to get killed by most of the defenses in the NFL now...something he is really going to have to figure out.
Correct me if I'm wrong but the caveat to all of that is how rare of a distinction it is to be mechanically sound, accurate outside the hashes, and have elite arm strength while being bad over the middle. Every year you get 100s of college qbs running mesh concepts and capitalizing on the lack of speed linebackers at this level have to exploit space. Zach Wilson specifically reminds me of that archetypal QB who could execute the college concepts to perfection and looks like a clown trying to adjust to the NFL element.
(04-04-2022 03:07 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]Correct me if I'm wrong but the caveat to all of that is how rare of a distinction it is to be mechanically sound, accurate outside the hashes, and have elite arm strength while being bad over the middle. Every year you get 100s of college qbs running mesh concepts and capitalizing on the lack of speed linebackers at this level have to exploit space. Zach Wilson specifically reminds me of that archetypal QB who could execute the college concepts to perfection and looks like a clown trying to adjust to the NFL element.
Wilson was one of the biggest bust prospects that I can remember...saw a lot of Joey Harrington in him. Very strong arm, but had accuracy issues all over the field, very poor decision making, and ran next to no developed passing schemes in college, not to mention his bad mechanics and absolutely horrible feet overall and pocket presence in general (tended to run out of clean pockets and force himself into off platform and throws on the run for no reason whatsoever).
I don't think what you're describing is rare, and I also don't think Des was all that accurate outside either...but throwing outside with a strong arm, your misses aren't getting picked off by safeties, they're getting picked off by equipment managers, that was my comment about strong coaching and scheming weaknesses out of the game. If it was so questionable that they made an active decision to stop going after an entire third of the field, there's a problem there. Des has solid mechanics, incredibly strong intangible traits, and a decently strong arm out to about 25 yards (touch messes with him a ton), but his aim-small/leading accuracy issues are a very real problem, and one that is the clear distinction between a potentially decent NFL QB and an elite one...if he can figure that out, he'll be in the upper echelon IMO, but that's a huge if, and not one I'd want to waste a Top 10 pick on.
I think you missed my initial post where I think Des can be a very solid, if unspectacular, NFL QB, somewhere in the 18-24 range of QBs in the NFL...which is damn good to me. I just cannot possibly see him as a Top 10 pick with the accuracy issues overall (and yes, I realize he has a decent catchable ball rate, but that doesn't measure how many of those plays ended at the catch point or caused issues with the receiver's ability to make a play).
Saints just traded with the Eagles to get a second pick in the teens...I'd be shocked if they didn't do that to get a QB there along with a guy they liked already and Ridder has gotten a few looks already down there.
There is an entirely different commentary on the Eagles bending the Saints over the negotiating table to the tune of a 2nd and a 3rd round pick for a 6th rounder, but that can be left for an NFL Thread instead of a Bearcats Draft Thread.
(04-04-2022 03:34 PM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 03:07 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]Correct me if I'm wrong but the caveat to all of that is how rare of a distinction it is to be mechanically sound, accurate outside the hashes, and have elite arm strength while being bad over the middle. Every year you get 100s of college qbs running mesh concepts and capitalizing on the lack of speed linebackers at this level have to exploit space. Zach Wilson specifically reminds me of that archetypal QB who could execute the college concepts to perfection and looks like a clown trying to adjust to the NFL element.
Wilson was one of the biggest bust prospects that I can remember...saw a lot of Joey Harrington in him. Very strong arm, but had accuracy issues all over the field, very poor decision making, and ran next to no developed passing schemes in college, not to mention his bad mechanics and absolutely horrible feet overall and pocket presence in general (tended to run out of clean pockets and force himself into off platform and throws on the run for no reason whatsoever).
I don't think what you're describing is rare, and I also don't think Des was all that accurate outside either...but throwing outside with a strong arm, your misses aren't getting picked off by safeties, they're getting picked off by equipment managers, that was my comment about strong coaching and scheming weaknesses out of the game. If it was so questionable that they made an active decision to stop going after an entire third of the field, there's a problem there. Des has solid mechanics, incredibly strong intangible traits, and a decently strong arm out to about 25 yards (touch messes with him a ton), but his aim-small/leading accuracy issues are a very real problem, and one that is the clear distinction between a potentially decent NFL QB and an elite one...if he can figure that out, he'll be in the upper echelon IMO, but that's a huge if, and not one I'd want to waste a Top 10 pick on.
I think you missed my initial post where I think Des can be a very solid, if unspectacular, NFL QB, somewhere in the 18-24 range of QBs in the NFL...which is damn good to me. I just cannot possibly see him as a Top 10 pick with the accuracy issues overall (and yes, I realize he has a decent catchable ball rate, but that doesn't measure how many of those plays ended at the catch point or caused issues with the receiver's ability to make a play).
All of this^.
He completed one hell of a lot of throws where the receiver had to react to the ball being on the wrong shoulder, behind, etc. Hitting a guy in stride was always his biggest area of concern. So often receivers had to stop, come back, dig it out of the dirt or risk getting cut in half on the leap. Perhaps NFL staffs think that is an easier thing to correct than the other areas wheee he excels.
(04-04-2022 03:34 PM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ]I think you missed my initial post where I think Des can be a very solid, if unspectacular, NFL QB, somewhere in the 18-24 range of QBs in the NFL...which is damn good to me. I just cannot possibly see him as a Top 10 pick with the accuracy issues overall (and yes, I realize he has a decent catchable ball rate, but that doesn't measure how many of those plays ended at the catch point or caused issues with the receiver's ability to make a play).
I don't take any of your critiques as an indictment of Des' pro prospects in general. I find most people who discuss these details come off as "critical" but only because that's literally the point, so I'm not reading too much into your overall impression either way, no offense lol. I wouldn't read into my lack of critiquing Des either. I don't have any reason to nitpick his negatives nor do I follow the draft enough to worry about it. Honestly I'm enjoying how much analysis, good or bad, we're seeing of UC guys.
(04-04-2022 04:15 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 03:34 PM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 03:07 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]Correct me if I'm wrong but the caveat to all of that is how rare of a distinction it is to be mechanically sound, accurate outside the hashes, and have elite arm strength while being bad over the middle. Every year you get 100s of college qbs running mesh concepts and capitalizing on the lack of speed linebackers at this level have to exploit space. Zach Wilson specifically reminds me of that archetypal QB who could execute the college concepts to perfection and looks like a clown trying to adjust to the NFL element.
Wilson was one of the biggest bust prospects that I can remember...saw a lot of Joey Harrington in him. Very strong arm, but had accuracy issues all over the field, very poor decision making, and ran next to no developed passing schemes in college, not to mention his bad mechanics and absolutely horrible feet overall and pocket presence in general (tended to run out of clean pockets and force himself into off platform and throws on the run for no reason whatsoever).
I don't think what you're describing is rare, and I also don't think Des was all that accurate outside either...but throwing outside with a strong arm, your misses aren't getting picked off by safeties, they're getting picked off by equipment managers, that was my comment about strong coaching and scheming weaknesses out of the game. If it was so questionable that they made an active decision to stop going after an entire third of the field, there's a problem there. Des has solid mechanics, incredibly strong intangible traits, and a decently strong arm out to about 25 yards (touch messes with him a ton), but his aim-small/leading accuracy issues are a very real problem, and one that is the clear distinction between a potentially decent NFL QB and an elite one...if he can figure that out, he'll be in the upper echelon IMO, but that's a huge if, and not one I'd want to waste a Top 10 pick on.
I think you missed my initial post where I think Des can be a very solid, if unspectacular, NFL QB, somewhere in the 18-24 range of QBs in the NFL...which is damn good to me. I just cannot possibly see him as a Top 10 pick with the accuracy issues overall (and yes, I realize he has a decent catchable ball rate, but that doesn't measure how many of those plays ended at the catch point or caused issues with the receiver's ability to make a play).
All of this^.
He completed one hell of a lot of throws where the receiver had to react to the ball being on the wrong shoulder, behind, etc. Hitting a guy in stride was always his biggest area of concern. So often receivers had to stop, come back, dig it out of the dirt or risk getting cut in half on the leap. Perhaps NFL staffs think that is an easier thing to correct than the other areas wheee he excels.
Dez was fortunate to have some really good receivers, Pierce almost always had to come back or slow down to catch passes.
(04-04-2022 04:23 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 03:34 PM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ]I think you missed my initial post where I think Des can be a very solid, if unspectacular, NFL QB, somewhere in the 18-24 range of QBs in the NFL...which is damn good to me. I just cannot possibly see him as a Top 10 pick with the accuracy issues overall (and yes, I realize he has a decent catchable ball rate, but that doesn't measure how many of those plays ended at the catch point or caused issues with the receiver's ability to make a play).
I don't take any of your critiques as an indictment of Des' pro prospects in general. I find most people who discuss these details come off as "critical" but only because that's literally the point, so I'm not reading too much into your overall impression either way, no offense lol. I wouldn't read into my lack of critiquing Des either. I don't have any reason to nitpick his negatives nor do I follow the draft enough to worry about it. Honestly I'm enjoying how much analysis, good or bad, we're seeing of UC guys.
Completely agree on your final sentence, this will be HUGE for the program
(04-04-2022 05:48 PM)doss2 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 04:15 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 03:34 PM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2022 03:07 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]Correct me if I'm wrong but the caveat to all of that is how rare of a distinction it is to be mechanically sound, accurate outside the hashes, and have elite arm strength while being bad over the middle. Every year you get 100s of college qbs running mesh concepts and capitalizing on the lack of speed linebackers at this level have to exploit space. Zach Wilson specifically reminds me of that archetypal QB who could execute the college concepts to perfection and looks like a clown trying to adjust to the NFL element.
Wilson was one of the biggest bust prospects that I can remember...saw a lot of Joey Harrington in him. Very strong arm, but had accuracy issues all over the field, very poor decision making, and ran next to no developed passing schemes in college, not to mention his bad mechanics and absolutely horrible feet overall and pocket presence in general (tended to run out of clean pockets and force himself into off platform and throws on the run for no reason whatsoever).
I don't think what you're describing is rare, and I also don't think Des was all that accurate outside either...but throwing outside with a strong arm, your misses aren't getting picked off by safeties, they're getting picked off by equipment managers, that was my comment about strong coaching and scheming weaknesses out of the game. If it was so questionable that they made an active decision to stop going after an entire third of the field, there's a problem there. Des has solid mechanics, incredibly strong intangible traits, and a decently strong arm out to about 25 yards (touch messes with him a ton), but his aim-small/leading accuracy issues are a very real problem, and one that is the clear distinction between a potentially decent NFL QB and an elite one...if he can figure that out, he'll be in the upper echelon IMO, but that's a huge if, and not one I'd want to waste a Top 10 pick on.
I think you missed my initial post where I think Des can be a very solid, if unspectacular, NFL QB, somewhere in the 18-24 range of QBs in the NFL...which is damn good to me. I just cannot possibly see him as a Top 10 pick with the accuracy issues overall (and yes, I realize he has a decent catchable ball rate, but that doesn't measure how many of those plays ended at the catch point or caused issues with the receiver's ability to make a play).
All of this^.
He completed one hell of a lot of throws where the receiver had to react to the ball being on the wrong shoulder, behind, etc. Hitting a guy in stride was always his biggest area of concern. So often receivers had to stop, come back, dig it out of the dirt or risk getting cut in half on the leap. Perhaps NFL staffs think that is an easier thing to correct than the other areas wheee he excels.
Dez was fortunate to have some really good receivers, Pierce almost always had to come back or slow down to catch passes.
You didn’t watch a single game, did you.
There is so much buzz about Des right now. At this point I'd be kind of shocked if he wasn't a first round pick. I think a lot of that is NFL people don't get to 2021 film in depth until after the NFL season so a lot of his first 3 year accuracy concerns were alleviated by this year's film and then you get Des in a room and everyone knows how great he is. Also the thing I've been harping on throughout is teams were going to like that Des wasn't playing in a gimmicky, give him easy throws kind of offense. He was making NFL reads and NFL throws. I think that's a bigger deal that many realized.
(04-06-2022 08:49 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]There is so much buzz about Des right now. At this point I'd be kind of shocked if he wasn't a first round pick. I think a lot of that is NFL people don't get to 2021 film in depth until after the NFL season so a lot of his first 3 year accuracy concerns were alleviated by this year's film and then you get Des in a room and everyone knows how great he is. Also the thing I've been harping on throughout is teams were going to like that Des wasn't playing in a gimmicky, give him easy throws kind of offense. He was making NFL reads and NFL throws. I think that's a bigger deal that many realized.
I agree and I sincerely hope he is a first round draft pick. That's a win-win for his family and Bearcat fans everywhere.
I do worry about the gamesmanship that might be going on pre-draft. I have to confess, I rarely follow the draft, especially given the state of NFL football in Cincinnati prior to 2021's amazing run to the SB. But could certain teams float Ridder's name out there as their preferred first pick, in hopes that another team takes interest and goes after him with their earlier first round pick? That could enable the Steelers or Lions for instance, to pivot to a different position player still available and even more needed by their franchise?
Feeling pretty good about the spots for Des, Sauce and Pierce. I also think Beavers will go in the top 4 rounds. A little worried about how far Sanders, Ford, Bryant and Bryan Cook fall.
(04-06-2022 09:47 AM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ] (04-06-2022 08:49 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]There is so much buzz about Des right now. At this point I'd be kind of shocked if he wasn't a first round pick. I think a lot of that is NFL people don't get to 2021 film in depth until after the NFL season so a lot of his first 3 year accuracy concerns were alleviated by this year's film and then you get Des in a room and everyone knows how great he is. Also the thing I've been harping on throughout is teams were going to like that Des wasn't playing in a gimmicky, give him easy throws kind of offense. He was making NFL reads and NFL throws. I think that's a bigger deal that many realized.
I agree and I sincerely hope he is a first round draft pick. That's a win-win for his family and Bearcat fans everywhere.
I do worry about the gamesmanship that might be going on pre-draft. I have to confess, I rarely follow the draft, especially given the state of NFL football in Cincinnati prior to 2021's amazing run to the SB. But could certain teams float Ridder's name out there as their preferred first pick, in hopes that another team takes interest and goes after him with their earlier first round pick? That could enable the Steelers or Lions for instance, to pivot to a different position player still available and even more needed by their franchise?
I think its the opposite honestly. These dudes are trying to keep their jobs. Replacing a DE that got you maybe 5 sacks last year with a rookie who maybe gets 8 isn't going to move the needle and placate the fans (and management) if your QB sucks. QB's always end up going higher than maybe they should because the GM's and Coaches now how important they are to winning football games and it might buy you another year or two if the kid looks good. Obviously you don't want a Josh Rosen situation but if the kid shows any potential you might stick around for another year or two.