Lot's of people speculate about Notre Dame joining the ACC in full. Some speculate about Notre Dame in the Big 10. But where would the Irish actually best fit?
Let's divorce ourselves from the he said / she said, fan, and message board assertions and just look at the data. Emotions cloud the mind. Data frequently explains the emotions even better than people. It might even explain in a new way why independence is so important to them.
Did you know that based on the WSJ valuations that if Notre Dame joined the ACC in full they would be worth 27.7% of the total value of an ACC with them in it? The next closest team would be Clemson and they would be worth maybe 9 or 10% of the total value of an ACC with Notre Dame in it.
This raises some serious questions as to how much the powers that be in the ACC would welcome them in full? Would North Carolina and Virginia and Duke which together in an ACC with Notre Dame in it would be worth maybe 17 or 18% of the total value really like losing their lead roles? Technically, if not for historical positions of power, they would long ago have lost that power to Clemson and Florida State. I can't see Tobacco Road willingly giving up that kind of power. Let the Irish cultivate alliances with Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Louisville and you would have an alliance worth a little over half of the total valuation. It would be a starkly different decision making process moving forward.
So even though the Irish want to hold onto Independence for monetary reasons, as the ACC is not nearly their best financial option, as long as they have independence they will keep the arrangement, with a group that doesn't really want them as full members for the aforementioned reasons.
In the Big 10 they would have plenty of money, but they would be always behind the leadership of Ohio State and Michigan who have more combined strength than 2/3rds of their conference. Notre Dame adds to their coffers, but doesn't have the say they want, is forced into a less national schedule, and suffers a bit of a national identity loss as they become 1 of 3 Indiana schools. So I get the Irish reticence to join the Big 10.
In the SEC they would be neck and neck with Alabama, but the SEC is the broadest at the top in valuations and in the SEC the Irish's total value would be around 13% of the total even though they would be 1st or 2nd just barely in valuation. Not much power, a lot of hard physical games, and again not much national exposure in scheduling, but great access to recruits and the best payday they could hope to find. But outside of Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Missouri not really close to anyone and minor sports again would suffer lots of travel overhead.
They would be worth almost 25% of the total PAC valuation, and would be numero uno out West. Travel for minor sports would kill them and they would come out much better financially doing what they do already and that's play 1 or 2 West coast schools on their terms.
The most fascinating option for Notre Dame would be the Big 12. They would be just behind Texas and just ahead of Oklahoma in value. They wouldn't have a grueling slug fest like in the SEC and they would be in contention for a playoff spot often enough. The money would be better than in the ACC, and Texas is a recruiting hotbed and with 4 Texas schools in the conference they would be in the Lone Star state at least once if not twice per season. But the Big 12 would desperately need to go to divisions. So who goes with them?
Well, if U.S.C. would leave the PAC 12 that would make quite the dynamic and with Notre Dame would raise conference revenues easily into mid 50's range. The trouble would then be twofold. Minor sports travel would still be a mess. Second the Big 12 would need to drop the number of conference games to 8 to give the Irish some flexibility. They would want to keep a game in the Southeast in either Georgia or Florida, they would want to keep 1 of the Cali schools but if U.S.C. came with them that can be one of the 8 conference games. They could keep a game in New England with Syracuse or B.C. and still have one left for a Big 10 match up.
Iowa State and Kansas might not be too bad on the travel, but a Northern Division would be in order to help the minor sports. If USC couldn't then perhaps Missouri, Louisville, or Nebraska could make such a move, or better yet Miami so the Big 12 could pick up Sunshine State recruiting trips. So there are possibilities.
I don't consider it likely, but if forced to choose a permanent home among the P5 that one would probably come with less overall hassle than any of the others while offering them a reasonable chance at the playoffs on a solid year and giving them at least 3 conference games of National Exposure and leaving them a couple more.
And if the Irish and Trojans could make the party then perhaps the LHN becomes the Big 12N after all.
In short it's the only conference where their numbers line up for a pay raise without damaging their chances for the playoffs, and without taking a bath financially, and it provides them at least an equal voice with Texas, Oklahoma, and U.S.C.
I find that interesting, never talked about, and from a data standpoint much more compelling than any of the other scenarios.
As with all things Notre Dame, they will want status quo. But if forced to ever have to join, I wonder if the ACC or Big 10 are really the only options, or even the best or healthiest ones.
The Big Ten will never happen for a myriad of reasons. The SEC is as likely as the Big Ten.
The Pac puts us on a island that is not feasible. The SEC and ND are not a cultural fit even though our relationship has improved considerably the last 10 years.
So that leaves two choices the Big 12 and the ACC. When you look at ND without football we are a ACC type team. We're smaller, private ( the ACC has a good mix) and heavily focused on undergraduate studies. Not all the universities are secular which is another bridge for us into the ACC.
The Big 12 is interesting option. We have history with Oklahoma and Texas but not much else is attractive. USC joining would bring an element which could flip the whole feel of that conference. I like the eat what you kill motto they have which is beneficial to schools like ND.
Overall the ACC is a fit institutionally and if Miami and FSU, VT pick up a bit the conference could have a great run coming.
I will say there was a considerable amount of ND fans who wanted the Big 12 over the ACC when the deal was announced. I was a member of a big 12 board at the time and I believed it could be possibly happening.
I wonder if adding Stanford and USC to the west and Notre Dame and Pitt to the east would do the trick. Pitt would bring a true ND rival and revive the rivalry between the Panthers and the Mountaineers. I believe that the Big 12 was talking to Pitt before the ACC snatched them. Had Pitt been taken then that would have been a major lure, especially if they could've brought in the Trojans to boot.
Stanford would give the Domers that second option in California that they want.
(02-10-2021 02:32 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder if adding Stanford and USC to the west and Notre Dame and Pitt to the east would do the trick. Pitt would bring a true ND rival and revive the rivalry between the Panthers and the Mountaineers. I believe that the Big 12 was talking to Pitt before the ACC snatched them. Had Pitt been taken then that would have been a major lure, especially if they could've brought in the Trojans to boot.
Stanford would give the Domers that second option in California that they want.
I can't see a second Cali school independent in thought enough to make that bold of a move. I think the two state schools would stick and Stanford being more to the North and solidly aligned with the two state schools and tied to Washington and Oregon as sticking as well.
Maybe one of the Arizona schools like Arizona State which isn't AAU might make that move. Then what you suggest would look more like this:
Arizona State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Southern Cal
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, West Virginia,
That gives you 2 top brands in each division. You play 6 games with your division and 2 permanent crossover so ND can have USC and OU could have Texas & OSU and 1 rotating game. That keeps minor sport travel more central as basketball and baseball could have divisional home and home series and 1 game each in hoops with the other division and mid week games in baseball against them. Both those sports have tournaments so more crossover play is guaranteed.
Then the PAC could go back to 10 teams and play the round robin and have 3 open dates.
But frankly I'm not so sure that anymore than Notre Dame and USC would be necessary. That leaves more room on schedules with just 5 division games and 3 crossovers you have 4 free slots left for flexibility. What's more is N.D. could buy out a lot easier than Pitt and USC could be a free agent by 2024.
Another thread where JR predicts the demise of the ACC.
Keep in mind that Notre Dame (like Pitt is bound by the ACC's GOR) and is also under contract to join the ACC if they were to join a conference. But he knows those things, so you have to wonder why he persists?
(02-10-2021 03:25 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]But frankly I'm not so sure that anymore than Notre Dame and USC would be necessary. That leaves more room on schedules with just 5 division games and 3 crossovers you have 4 free slots left for flexibility. What's more is N.D. could buy out a lot easier than Pitt and USC could be a free agent by 2024.
Notre Dame buying out of both their GoR and their contract to not join any other conference might be harder than you think. But, let's say they can, and somehow USC is willing to put all their Olympic sports in a conference more than a thousand miles away. You could have these divisions with three unprotected crossovers:
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia
Notre Dame, USC, TCU, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
So, here's a question for you, JR. The PAC now has 11 members. What do they do next?
(02-10-2021 01:19 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]Lot's of people speculate about Notre Dame joining the ACC in full. Some speculate about Notre Dame in the Big 10. But where would the Irish actually best fit?
Let's divorce ourselves from the he said / she said, fan, and message board assertions and just look at the data. Emotions cloud the mind. Data frequently explains the emotions even better than people. It might even explain in a new way why independence is so important to them.
Did you know that based on the WSJ valuations that if Notre Dame joined the ACC in full they would be worth 27.7% of the total value of an ACC with them in it? The next closest team would be Clemson and they would be worth maybe 9 or 10% of the total value of an ACC with Notre Dame in it.
This raises some serious questions as to how much the powers that be in the ACC would welcome them in full? Would North Carolina and Virginia and Duke which together in an ACC with Notre Dame in it would be worth maybe 17 or 18% of the total value really like losing their lead roles? Technically, if not for historical positions of power, they would long ago have lost that power to Clemson and Florida State. I can't see Tobacco Road willingly giving up that kind of power. Let the Irish cultivate alliances with Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Louisville and you would have an alliance worth a little over half of the total valuation. It would be a starkly different decision making process moving forward.
So even though the Irish want to hold onto Independence for monetary reasons, as the ACC is not nearly their best financial option, as long as they have independence they will keep the arrangement, with a group that doesn't really want them as full members for the aforementioned reasons.
In the Big 10 they would have plenty of money, but they would be always behind the leadership of Ohio State and Michigan who have more combined strength than 2/3rds of their conference. Notre Dame adds to their coffers, but doesn't have the say they want, is forced into a less national schedule, and suffers a bit of a national identity loss as they become 1 of 3 Indiana schools. So I get the Irish reticence to join the Big 10.
In the SEC they would be neck and neck with Alabama, but the SEC is the broadest at the top in valuations and in the SEC the Irish's total value would be around 13% of the total even though they would be 1st or 2nd just barely in valuation. Not much power, a lot of hard physical games, and again not much national exposure in scheduling, but great access to recruits and the best payday they could hope to find. But outside of Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Missouri not really close to anyone and minor sports again would suffer lots of travel overhead.
They would be worth almost 25% of the total PAC valuation, and would be numero uno out West. Travel for minor sports would kill them and they would come out much better financially doing what they do already and that's play 1 or 2 West coast schools on their terms.
The most fascinating option for Notre Dame would be the Big 12. They would be just behind Texas and just ahead of Oklahoma in value. They wouldn't have a grueling slug fest like in the SEC and they would be in contention for a playoff spot often enough. The money would be better than in the ACC, and Texas is a recruiting hotbed and with 4 Texas schools in the conference they would be in the Lone Star state at least once if not twice per season. But the Big 12 would desperately need to go to divisions. So who goes with them?
Well, if U.S.C. would leave the PAC 12 that would make quite the dynamic and with Notre Dame would raise conference revenues easily into mid 50's range. The trouble would then be twofold. Minor sports travel would still be a mess. Second the Big 12 would need to drop the number of conference games to 8 to give the Irish some flexibility. They would want to keep a game in the Southeast in either Georgia or Florida, they would want to keep 1 of the Cali schools but if U.S.C. came with them that can be one of the 8 conference games. They could keep a game in New England with Syracuse or B.C. and still have one left for a Big 10 match up.
Iowa State and Kansas might not be too bad on the travel, but a Northern Division would be in order to help the minor sports. If USC couldn't then perhaps Missouri, Louisville, or Nebraska could make such a move, or better yet Miami so the Big 12 could pick up Sunshine State recruiting trips. So there are possibilities.
I don't consider it likely, but if forced to choose a permanent home among the P5 that one would probably come with less overall hassle than any of the others while offering them a reasonable chance at the playoffs on a solid year and giving them at least 3 conference games of National Exposure and leaving them a couple more.
And if the Irish and Trojans could make the party then perhaps the LHN becomes the Big 12N after all.
In short it's the only conference where their numbers line up for a pay raise without damaging their chances for the playoffs, and without taking a bath financially, and it provides them at least an equal voice with Texas, Oklahoma, and U.S.C.
I find that interesting, never talked about, and from a data standpoint much more compelling than any of the other scenarios.
As with all things Notre Dame, they will want status quo. But if forced to ever have to join, I wonder if the ACC or Big 10 are really the only options, or even the best or healthiest ones.
I told XLance this a few years ago on the ACC board. I told him that if ND joined in full, it would never be his Grandpappy's ACC ever again.
I suggested that ND would cultivate relationships with Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech and that would be the end of Tobacco Road's control of the ACC.
I knew that ND would not be that impressed with the old way the ACC did things and with its clout would move to change things.
(Does anyone really think that a historically fiercely independent ND now permanently a full ACC member would meekly kowtow to North Carolina and Duke?)
I still feel this way. Thanks for posting this, we can see from the WSJ valuations exactly why the ACC has been courting the Irish for so long.
P.S. I have long thought that if ND decided to join a conference, it might just explore starting one with the Texas, Oklahoma and the best of the ACC instead of joining an existing one.
P.P.S Now, toss emotion and history back into the equation along with Irish stubbornness and you can understand ND's independent stand better and also understand the low probability of it joining the Big Ten in full.
(02-10-2021 09:32 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 01:19 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]Lot's of people speculate about Notre Dame joining the ACC in full. Some speculate about Notre Dame in the Big 10. But where would the Irish actually best fit?
Let's divorce ourselves from the he said / she said, fan, and message board assertions and just look at the data. Emotions cloud the mind. Data frequently explains the emotions even better than people. It might even explain in a new way why independence is so important to them.
Did you know that based on the WSJ valuations that if Notre Dame joined the ACC in full they would be worth 27.7% of the total value of an ACC with them in it? The next closest team would be Clemson and they would be worth maybe 9 or 10% of the total value of an ACC with Notre Dame in it.
This raises some serious questions as to how much the powers that be in the ACC would welcome them in full? Would North Carolina and Virginia and Duke which together in an ACC with Notre Dame in it would be worth maybe 17 or 18% of the total value really like losing their lead roles? Technically, if not for historical positions of power, they would long ago have lost that power to Clemson and Florida State. I can't see Tobacco Road willingly giving up that kind of power. Let the Irish cultivate alliances with Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Louisville and you would have an alliance worth a little over half of the total valuation. It would be a starkly different decision making process moving forward.
So even though the Irish want to hold onto Independence for monetary reasons, as the ACC is not nearly their best financial option, as long as they have independence they will keep the arrangement, with a group that doesn't really want them as full members for the aforementioned reasons.
In the Big 10 they would have plenty of money, but they would be always behind the leadership of Ohio State and Michigan who have more combined strength than 2/3rds of their conference. Notre Dame adds to their coffers, but doesn't have the say they want, is forced into a less national schedule, and suffers a bit of a national identity loss as they become 1 of 3 Indiana schools. So I get the Irish reticence to join the Big 10.
In the SEC they would be neck and neck with Alabama, but the SEC is the broadest at the top in valuations and in the SEC the Irish's total value would be around 13% of the total even though they would be 1st or 2nd just barely in valuation. Not much power, a lot of hard physical games, and again not much national exposure in scheduling, but great access to recruits and the best payday they could hope to find. But outside of Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Missouri not really close to anyone and minor sports again would suffer lots of travel overhead.
They would be worth almost 25% of the total PAC valuation, and would be numero uno out West. Travel for minor sports would kill them and they would come out much better financially doing what they do already and that's play 1 or 2 West coast schools on their terms.
The most fascinating option for Notre Dame would be the Big 12. They would be just behind Texas and just ahead of Oklahoma in value. They wouldn't have a grueling slug fest like in the SEC and they would be in contention for a playoff spot often enough. The money would be better than in the ACC, and Texas is a recruiting hotbed and with 4 Texas schools in the conference they would be in the Lone Star state at least once if not twice per season. But the Big 12 would desperately need to go to divisions. So who goes with them?
Well, if U.S.C. would leave the PAC 12 that would make quite the dynamic and with Notre Dame would raise conference revenues easily into mid 50's range. The trouble would then be twofold. Minor sports travel would still be a mess. Second the Big 12 would need to drop the number of conference games to 8 to give the Irish some flexibility. They would want to keep a game in the Southeast in either Georgia or Florida, they would want to keep 1 of the Cali schools but if U.S.C. came with them that can be one of the 8 conference games. They could keep a game in New England with Syracuse or B.C. and still have one left for a Big 10 match up.
Iowa State and Kansas might not be too bad on the travel, but a Northern Division would be in order to help the minor sports. If USC couldn't then perhaps Missouri, Louisville, or Nebraska could make such a move, or better yet Miami so the Big 12 could pick up Sunshine State recruiting trips. So there are possibilities.
I don't consider it likely, but if forced to choose a permanent home among the P5 that one would probably come with less overall hassle than any of the others while offering them a reasonable chance at the playoffs on a solid year and giving them at least 3 conference games of National Exposure and leaving them a couple more.
And if the Irish and Trojans could make the party then perhaps the LHN becomes the Big 12N after all.
In short it's the only conference where their numbers line up for a pay raise without damaging their chances for the playoffs, and without taking a bath financially, and it provides them at least an equal voice with Texas, Oklahoma, and U.S.C.
I find that interesting, never talked about, and from a data standpoint much more compelling than any of the other scenarios.
As with all things Notre Dame, they will want status quo. But if forced to ever have to join, I wonder if the ACC or Big 10 are really the only options, or even the best or healthiest ones.
I told XLance this a few years ago on the ACC board. I told him that if ND joined in full, it would never be his Grandpappy's ACC ever again.
I suggested that ND would cultivate relationships with Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech and that would be the end of Tobacco Road's control of the ACC.
I knew that ND would not be that impressed with the old way the ACC did things and with its clout would move to change things.
I still feel this way. Thanks for posting this, we can see from the WSJ valuations exactly why the ACC has been courting the Irish for so long.
P.S. I have long thought that if ND decided to join a conference, it might just explore starting one with the Texas, Oklahoma and the best of the ACC instead of joining an existing one.
I have long wondered why Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and perhaps Louisville haven't already done this and wrested control from Tobacco Road.
Terry, how would you feel if the Irish were able to persuade USC, Stanford and Colorado to join them in the Big XII? They could be in a division that looks like this:
Notre Dame, USC, Stanford, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State (all AAU except K-State).
With an 8 game league schedule with no protected crossovers needed, USC and Stanford would have room to schedule Cal, UCLA and Washington/Oregon OOC every year. Colorado would still have their desired presence in both the Bay area and LA, plus renewed rivalries with its Kansas neighbors. The Irish would still have an annual game in California like they enjoy now, either Texas or Oklahoma every year if they want (sometimes OOC) plus Navy and 2 more OOC games to schedule in the talent rich Southeast.
That would give the P5 four conferences with 14 members and the PAC with 9 without having to accept any G5s into the club.
(02-10-2021 09:59 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 09:32 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 01:19 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]Lot's of people speculate about Notre Dame joining the ACC in full. Some speculate about Notre Dame in the Big 10. But where would the Irish actually best fit?
Let's divorce ourselves from the he said / she said, fan, and message board assertions and just look at the data. Emotions cloud the mind. Data frequently explains the emotions even better than people. It might even explain in a new way why independence is so important to them.
Did you know that based on the WSJ valuations that if Notre Dame joined the ACC in full they would be worth 27.7% of the total value of an ACC with them in it? The next closest team would be Clemson and they would be worth maybe 9 or 10% of the total value of an ACC with Notre Dame in it.
This raises some serious questions as to how much the powers that be in the ACC would welcome them in full? Would North Carolina and Virginia and Duke which together in an ACC with Notre Dame in it would be worth maybe 17 or 18% of the total value really like losing their lead roles? Technically, if not for historical positions of power, they would long ago have lost that power to Clemson and Florida State. I can't see Tobacco Road willingly giving up that kind of power. Let the Irish cultivate alliances with Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Louisville and you would have an alliance worth a little over half of the total valuation. It would be a starkly different decision making process moving forward.
So even though the Irish want to hold onto Independence for monetary reasons, as the ACC is not nearly their best financial option, as long as they have independence they will keep the arrangement, with a group that doesn't really want them as full members for the aforementioned reasons.
In the Big 10 they would have plenty of money, but they would be always behind the leadership of Ohio State and Michigan who have more combined strength than 2/3rds of their conference. Notre Dame adds to their coffers, but doesn't have the say they want, is forced into a less national schedule, and suffers a bit of a national identity loss as they become 1 of 3 Indiana schools. So I get the Irish reticence to join the Big 10.
In the SEC they would be neck and neck with Alabama, but the SEC is the broadest at the top in valuations and in the SEC the Irish's total value would be around 13% of the total even though they would be 1st or 2nd just barely in valuation. Not much power, a lot of hard physical games, and again not much national exposure in scheduling, but great access to recruits and the best payday they could hope to find. But outside of Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Missouri not really close to anyone and minor sports again would suffer lots of travel overhead.
They would be worth almost 25% of the total PAC valuation, and would be numero uno out West. Travel for minor sports would kill them and they would come out much better financially doing what they do already and that's play 1 or 2 West coast schools on their terms.
The most fascinating option for Notre Dame would be the Big 12. They would be just behind Texas and just ahead of Oklahoma in value. They wouldn't have a grueling slug fest like in the SEC and they would be in contention for a playoff spot often enough. The money would be better than in the ACC, and Texas is a recruiting hotbed and with 4 Texas schools in the conference they would be in the Lone Star state at least once if not twice per season. But the Big 12 would desperately need to go to divisions. So who goes with them?
Well, if U.S.C. would leave the PAC 12 that would make quite the dynamic and with Notre Dame would raise conference revenues easily into mid 50's range. The trouble would then be twofold. Minor sports travel would still be a mess. Second the Big 12 would need to drop the number of conference games to 8 to give the Irish some flexibility. They would want to keep a game in the Southeast in either Georgia or Florida, they would want to keep 1 of the Cali schools but if U.S.C. came with them that can be one of the 8 conference games. They could keep a game in New England with Syracuse or B.C. and still have one left for a Big 10 match up.
Iowa State and Kansas might not be too bad on the travel, but a Northern Division would be in order to help the minor sports. If USC couldn't then perhaps Missouri, Louisville, or Nebraska could make such a move, or better yet Miami so the Big 12 could pick up Sunshine State recruiting trips. So there are possibilities.
I don't consider it likely, but if forced to choose a permanent home among the P5 that one would probably come with less overall hassle than any of the others while offering them a reasonable chance at the playoffs on a solid year and giving them at least 3 conference games of National Exposure and leaving them a couple more.
And if the Irish and Trojans could make the party then perhaps the LHN becomes the Big 12N after all.
In short it's the only conference where their numbers line up for a pay raise without damaging their chances for the playoffs, and without taking a bath financially, and it provides them at least an equal voice with Texas, Oklahoma, and U.S.C.
I find that interesting, never talked about, and from a data standpoint much more compelling than any of the other scenarios.
As with all things Notre Dame, they will want status quo. But if forced to ever have to join, I wonder if the ACC or Big 10 are really the only options, or even the best or healthiest ones.
I told XLance this a few years ago on the ACC board. I told him that if ND joined in full, it would never be his Grandpappy's ACC ever again.
I suggested that ND would cultivate relationships with Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech and that would be the end of Tobacco Road's control of the ACC.
I knew that ND would not be that impressed with the old way the ACC did things and with its clout would move to change things.
I still feel this way. Thanks for posting this, we can see from the WSJ valuations exactly why the ACC has been courting the Irish for so long.
P.S. I have long thought that if ND decided to join a conference, it might just explore starting one with the Texas, Oklahoma and the best of the ACC instead of joining an existing one.
I have long wondered why Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and perhaps Louisville haven't already done this and wrested control from Tobacco Road.
Terry, how would you feel if the Irish were able to persuade USC, Stanford and Colorado to join them in the Big XII? They could be in a division that looks like this:
Notre Dame, USC, Stanford, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State (all AAU except K-State).
With an 8 game league schedule with no protected crossovers needed, USC and Stanford would have room to schedule Cal, UCLA and Washington/Oregon OOC every year. Colorado would still have their desired presence in both the Bay area and LA, plus renewed rivalries with its Kansas neighbors. The Irish would still have an annual game in California like they enjoy now, either Texas or Oklahoma every year if they want (sometimes OOC) plus Navy and 2 more OOC games to schedule in the talent rich Southeast.
That would give the P5 four conferences with 14 members and the PAC with 9 without having to accept any G5s into the club.
Pretend that you run ND. Look around:
--43-8 in football the past four years, with two playoff berths.
--Access to Southern recruits via five game a year ACC deal
--6th in total revenues with NBC deal set to expire
--7 games a year to schedule as you please
--Very good home for basketball, baseball, soccer and lacrosse
--Decent home for hockey
--Hundreds of millions of dollars donated for new and renovated facilities
(they seriously want you to stay football independent)
Why would you want to consider moving to a conference in full ?
What does any conference offer that would justify the seismic change?
Why would you want to change anything unless forced to (Covid, playoffs)?
(02-10-2021 10:21 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]Pretend that you run ND. Look around:
--43-8 in football the past four years, with two playoff berths.
--Access to Southern recruits via five game a year ACC deal
--6th in total revenues with NBC deal set to expire
--7 games a year to schedule as you please
--Very good home for basketball, baseball, soccer and lacrosse
--Decent home for hockey
--Hundreds of millions of dollars donated for new and renovated facilities
(they seriously want you to stay football independent)
Why would you want to consider moving to a conference in full ?
Why would you want to change anything unless forced to (Covid, playoffs)?
I get it. Let's say for the moment the Irish are forced into it by a change in the CFP contract. Would they prefer going all-in with the ACC or something like the Big XII (14 team) arrangement I suggested?
(02-10-2021 08:48 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 03:25 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]But frankly I'm not so sure that anymore than Notre Dame and USC would be necessary. That leaves more room on schedules with just 5 division games and 3 crossovers you have 4 free slots left for flexibility. What's more is N.D. could buy out a lot easier than Pitt and USC could be a free agent by 2024.
Notre Dame buying out of both their GoR and their contract to not join any other conference might be harder than you think. But, let's say they can, and somehow USC is willing to put all their Olympic sports in a conference more than a thousand miles away. You could have these divisions with three unprotected crossovers:
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia
Notre Dame, USC, TCU, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
So, here's a question for you, JR. The PAC now has 11 members. What do they do next?
Well, play 10 conference games and 2 buy games dramatically upping their content involving all remaining schools and driving interest in the conference for West coasters. As AlltideUP suggested they could play a West Coast late night time slot in addition to the normal ones for exclusivity that would hold interest for East and Central time zone night owls. Heck when ESPN first got started I stayed up late on weekends to watch Australian rules football, the PAC would definitely be more interesting live at that time of night. So 11 could be a nice pass instead of a hard to make 12 if you roll the dice on USC's deparure.
(02-10-2021 10:26 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 08:48 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 03:25 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]But frankly I'm not so sure that anymore than Notre Dame and USC would be necessary. That leaves more room on schedules with just 5 division games and 3 crossovers you have 4 free slots left for flexibility. What's more is N.D. could buy out a lot easier than Pitt and USC could be a free agent by 2024.
Notre Dame buying out of both their GoR and their contract to not join any other conference might be harder than you think. But, let's say they can, and somehow USC is willing to put all their Olympic sports in a conference more than a thousand miles away. You could have these divisions with three unprotected crossovers:
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia
Notre Dame, USC, TCU, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
So, here's a question for you, JR. The PAC now has 11 members. What do they do next?
Well, play 10 conference games and 2 buy games dramatically upping their content involving all remaining schools and driving interest in the conference for West coasters. As AlltideUP suggested they could play a West Coast late night time slot in addition to the normal ones for exclusivity that would hold interest for East and Central time zone night owls. Heck when ESPN first got started I stayed up late on weekends to watch Australian rules football, the PAC would definitely be more interesting live at that time of night. So 11 could be a nice pass instead of a hard to make 12 if you roll the dice on USC's deparure.
That makes sense, given their geography relative to the rest of the P5. Unfortunately, it doesn't provide them with any OOC measuring stick to help with consideration for a four team playoff. They would have to hope (and lobby) for an eight team playoff in which they get an autobid.
It also gives them a double round robin 20 game hoops schedule, which is a plus. That just leaves the question of how you persuade USC to leave for the Big XII. I think that would be a tough sell.
(02-10-2021 10:25 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 10:21 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]Pretend that you run ND. Look around:
--43-8 in football the past four years, with two playoff berths.
--Access to Southern recruits via five game a year ACC deal
--6th in total revenues with NBC deal set to expire
--7 games a year to schedule as you please
--Very good home for basketball, baseball, soccer and lacrosse
--Decent home for hockey
--Hundreds of millions of dollars donated for new and renovated facilities
(they seriously want you to stay football independent)
Why would you want to consider moving to a conference in full ?
Why would you want to change anything unless forced to (Covid, playoffs)?
I get it. Let's say for the moment the Irish are forced into it by a change in the CFP contract. Would they prefer going all-in with the ACC or something like the Big XII arrangement I suggested?
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Insert Texas team here
ND plus as many top ACC teams as needed to dissolve the ACC.
Add one or two more, if needed.
Cut the "dead weight" from both the Big 12 and ACC and form a new ND/Texas led one from scratch.
Have to do this before 2024, right?
8 game conference schedule. No pods, lol.
How much is that new TV deal worth?
That would be better, but its very likely ND would do the "easy thing" and join the ACC.
(02-10-2021 10:38 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 10:26 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 08:48 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 03:25 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]But frankly I'm not so sure that anymore than Notre Dame and USC would be necessary. That leaves more room on schedules with just 5 division games and 3 crossovers you have 4 free slots left for flexibility. What's more is N.D. could buy out a lot easier than Pitt and USC could be a free agent by 2024.
Notre Dame buying out of both their GoR and their contract to not join any other conference might be harder than you think. But, let's say they can, and somehow USC is willing to put all their Olympic sports in a conference more than a thousand miles away. You could have these divisions with three unprotected crossovers:
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia
Notre Dame, USC, TCU, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State
So, here's a question for you, JR. The PAC now has 11 members. What do they do next?
Well, play 10 conference games and 2 buy games dramatically upping their content involving all remaining schools and driving interest in the conference for West coasters. As AlltideUP suggested they could play a West Coast late night time slot in addition to the normal ones for exclusivity that would hold interest for East and Central time zone night owls. Heck when ESPN first got started I stayed up late on weekends to watch Australian rules football, the PAC would definitely be more interesting live at that time of night. So 11 could be a nice pass instead of a hard to make 12 if you roll the dice on USC's deparure.
That makes sense, given their geography relative to the rest of the P5. Unfortunately, it doesn't provide them with any OOC measuring stick to help with consideration for a four team playoff. They would have to hope (and lobby) for an eight team playoff in which they get an autobid.
It also gives them a double round robin 20 game hoops schedule, which is a plus. That just leaves the question of how you persuade USC to leave for the Big XII. I think that would be a tough sell.
Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Texas is the sell. Those are bigger games than USC gets in conference with the PAC slate of schools. I think, even though I don't like the idea, that an 8 game playoff may be inevitable. Have at large bids is the kind of control the network likes, it does keep more fan bases involved late and college football is now foremost a business, and it would be a solution to keep the PAC relevant.
And Ken, it helps all conferences to feel more comfortable playing more conference games which drives content values, pleases fans, and makes for better TV. Does USC gain more by playing N.D., UT and OU and keeping U.C.L.A. and Stanford on the schedule, or by playing Utah, the Arizona schools, Oregon State, Washington State and Cal? If USC competed better with other traditional powers would that not improve West coast interest when they scheduled PAC schools OOC? I think it might.
(02-10-2021 01:19 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]Lot's of people speculate about Notre Dame joining the ACC in full. Some speculate about Notre Dame in the Big 10. But where would the Irish actually best fit?
Let's divorce ourselves from the he said / she said, fan, and message board assertions and just look at the data. Emotions cloud the mind. Data frequently explains the emotions even better than people. It might even explain in a new way why independence is so important to them.
Did you know that based on the WSJ valuations that if Notre Dame joined the ACC in full they would be worth 27.7% of the total value of an ACC with them in it? The next closest team would be Clemson and they would be worth maybe 9 or 10% of the total value of an ACC with Notre Dame in it.
This raises some serious questions as to how much the powers that be in the ACC would welcome them in full? Would North Carolina and Virginia and Duke which together in an ACC with Notre Dame in it would be worth maybe 17 or 18% of the total value really like losing their lead roles? Technically, if not for historical positions of power, they would long ago have lost that power to Clemson and Florida State. I can't see Tobacco Road willingly giving up that kind of power. Let the Irish cultivate alliances with Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Louisville and you would have an alliance worth a little over half of the total valuation. It would be a starkly different decision making process moving forward.
So even though the Irish want to hold onto Independence for monetary reasons, as the ACC is not nearly their best financial option, as long as they have independence they will keep the arrangement, with a group that doesn't really want them as full members for the aforementioned reasons.
In the Big 10 they would have plenty of money, but they would be always behind the leadership of Ohio State and Michigan who have more combined strength than 2/3rds of their conference. Notre Dame adds to their coffers, but doesn't have the say they want, is forced into a less national schedule, and suffers a bit of a national identity loss as they become 1 of 3 Indiana schools. So I get the Irish reticence to join the Big 10.
In the SEC they would be neck and neck with Alabama, but the SEC is the broadest at the top in valuations and in the SEC the Irish's total value would be around 13% of the total even though they would be 1st or 2nd just barely in valuation. Not much power, a lot of hard physical games, and again not much national exposure in scheduling, but great access to recruits and the best payday they could hope to find. But outside of Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Missouri not really close to anyone and minor sports again would suffer lots of travel overhead.
They would be worth almost 25% of the total PAC valuation, and would be numero uno out West. Travel for minor sports would kill them and they would come out much better financially doing what they do already and that's play 1 or 2 West coast schools on their terms.
The most fascinating option for Notre Dame would be the Big 12. They would be just behind Texas and just ahead of Oklahoma in value. They wouldn't have a grueling slug fest like in the SEC and they would be in contention for a playoff spot often enough. The money would be better than in the ACC, and Texas is a recruiting hotbed and with 4 Texas schools in the conference they would be in the Lone Star state at least once if not twice per season. But the Big 12 would desperately need to go to divisions. So who goes with them?
Well, if U.S.C. would leave the PAC 12 that would make quite the dynamic and with Notre Dame would raise conference revenues easily into mid 50's range. The trouble would then be twofold. Minor sports travel would still be a mess. Second the Big 12 would need to drop the number of conference games to 8 to give the Irish some flexibility. They would want to keep a game in the Southeast in either Georgia or Florida, they would want to keep 1 of the Cali schools but if U.S.C. came with them that can be one of the 8 conference games. They could keep a game in New England with Syracuse or B.C. and still have one left for a Big 10 match up.
Iowa State and Kansas might not be too bad on the travel, but a Northern Division would be in order to help the minor sports. If USC couldn't then perhaps Missouri, Louisville, or Nebraska could make such a move, or better yet Miami so the Big 12 could pick up Sunshine State recruiting trips. So there are possibilities.
I don't consider it likely, but if forced to choose a permanent home among the P5 that one would probably come with less overall hassle than any of the others while offering them a reasonable chance at the playoffs on a solid year and giving them at least 3 conference games of National Exposure and leaving them a couple more.
And if the Irish and Trojans could make the party then perhaps the LHN becomes the Big 12N after all.
In short it's the only conference where their numbers line up for a pay raise without damaging their chances for the playoffs, and without taking a bath financially, and it provides them at least an equal voice with Texas, Oklahoma, and U.S.C.
I find that interesting, never talked about, and from a data standpoint much more compelling than any of the other scenarios.
As with all things Notre Dame, they will want status quo. But if forced to ever have to join, I wonder if the ACC or Big 10 are really the only options, or even the best or healthiest ones.
First, although WSJ valuations may be directional, I believe that you are putting too much emphasis on their meaning. There is way too much volatility and uncertainty in those valuation estimates. These organizations are all managed as not-for-profits. Accounting in college athletics is too opaque for decision makers to rely on valuation estimates. Valuations assume synergies and continuation of trends that are not well scrutinized within college athletics. I believe that gross revenues are a much better financial indicator in college athletics.
Second, ND’s business model is that of a national player. It’s the exact opposite of Texas’ business model...where the Longhorns cater to a wealthy and passionate following throughout the Lone Star state. Over time the interests of the two major players (Texas and ND) would clash. Yet the Longhorns will always be the alpha program in an expanded B12. A marriage of ND into the B12 could work to maximize the next round of TV media payouts. But long term (beyond 2030?), it’s a very risky move for Notre Dame. It’s also an overall bad move for USC, who has a greater reliance on the lucrative California market.
Although media payouts currently stink with the ACC, the affiliation offers a lot more synergies to ND. There are compatible private, and elite public, universities that have a national branding mind-set. If ND ever wanted to be a full member, the ACC fits the ND business model better...so long as football drives the bus, ND would also become the alpha program.
I have a technical question - one I don't have a clue about the correct answer.
Notre Dame is not currently a member of the ACC for football. But they are a member for all other sports, including basketball (which makes the ACC their "home" conference within the NCAA).
If they were to join the Big XII for all sports, would the fact that they are now a member of the ACC mean they are subject to the exit fee in addition to the GoR? That would raise their cost to exit pretty high (in the ballpark of $100 million). Or is their something in ACC bylaws and their contract with Notre Dame that exempts them from an exit fee?
Does anyone know definitively the answer to this question?
(02-10-2021 11:43 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 01:19 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]Lot's of people speculate about Notre Dame joining the ACC in full. Some speculate about Notre Dame in the Big 10. But where would the Irish actually best fit?
Let's divorce ourselves from the he said / she said, fan, and message board assertions and just look at the data. Emotions cloud the mind. Data frequently explains the emotions even better than people. It might even explain in a new way why independence is so important to them.
Did you know that based on the WSJ valuations that if Notre Dame joined the ACC in full they would be worth 27.7% of the total value of an ACC with them in it? The next closest team would be Clemson and they would be worth maybe 9 or 10% of the total value of an ACC with Notre Dame in it.
This raises some serious questions as to how much the powers that be in the ACC would welcome them in full? Would North Carolina and Virginia and Duke which together in an ACC with Notre Dame in it would be worth maybe 17 or 18% of the total value really like losing their lead roles? Technically, if not for historical positions of power, they would long ago have lost that power to Clemson and Florida State. I can't see Tobacco Road willingly giving up that kind of power. Let the Irish cultivate alliances with Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Louisville and you would have an alliance worth a little over half of the total valuation. It would be a starkly different decision making process moving forward.
So even though the Irish want to hold onto Independence for monetary reasons, as the ACC is not nearly their best financial option, as long as they have independence they will keep the arrangement, with a group that doesn't really want them as full members for the aforementioned reasons.
In the Big 10 they would have plenty of money, but they would be always behind the leadership of Ohio State and Michigan who have more combined strength than 2/3rds of their conference. Notre Dame adds to their coffers, but doesn't have the say they want, is forced into a less national schedule, and suffers a bit of a national identity loss as they become 1 of 3 Indiana schools. So I get the Irish reticence to join the Big 10.
In the SEC they would be neck and neck with Alabama, but the SEC is the broadest at the top in valuations and in the SEC the Irish's total value would be around 13% of the total even though they would be 1st or 2nd just barely in valuation. Not much power, a lot of hard physical games, and again not much national exposure in scheduling, but great access to recruits and the best payday they could hope to find. But outside of Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Missouri not really close to anyone and minor sports again would suffer lots of travel overhead.
They would be worth almost 25% of the total PAC valuation, and would be numero uno out West. Travel for minor sports would kill them and they would come out much better financially doing what they do already and that's play 1 or 2 West coast schools on their terms.
The most fascinating option for Notre Dame would be the Big 12. They would be just behind Texas and just ahead of Oklahoma in value. They wouldn't have a grueling slug fest like in the SEC and they would be in contention for a playoff spot often enough. The money would be better than in the ACC, and Texas is a recruiting hotbed and with 4 Texas schools in the conference they would be in the Lone Star state at least once if not twice per season. But the Big 12 would desperately need to go to divisions. So who goes with them?
Well, if U.S.C. would leave the PAC 12 that would make quite the dynamic and with Notre Dame would raise conference revenues easily into mid 50's range. The trouble would then be twofold. Minor sports travel would still be a mess. Second the Big 12 would need to drop the number of conference games to 8 to give the Irish some flexibility. They would want to keep a game in the Southeast in either Georgia or Florida, they would want to keep 1 of the Cali schools but if U.S.C. came with them that can be one of the 8 conference games. They could keep a game in New England with Syracuse or B.C. and still have one left for a Big 10 match up.
Iowa State and Kansas might not be too bad on the travel, but a Northern Division would be in order to help the minor sports. If USC couldn't then perhaps Missouri, Louisville, or Nebraska could make such a move, or better yet Miami so the Big 12 could pick up Sunshine State recruiting trips. So there are possibilities.
I don't consider it likely, but if forced to choose a permanent home among the P5 that one would probably come with less overall hassle than any of the others while offering them a reasonable chance at the playoffs on a solid year and giving them at least 3 conference games of National Exposure and leaving them a couple more.
And if the Irish and Trojans could make the party then perhaps the LHN becomes the Big 12N after all.
In short it's the only conference where their numbers line up for a pay raise without damaging their chances for the playoffs, and without taking a bath financially, and it provides them at least an equal voice with Texas, Oklahoma, and U.S.C.
I find that interesting, never talked about, and from a data standpoint much more compelling than any of the other scenarios.
As with all things Notre Dame, they will want status quo. But if forced to ever have to join, I wonder if the ACC or Big 10 are really the only options, or even the best or healthiest ones.
First, although WSJ valuations may be directional, I believe that you are putting too much emphasis on their meaning. There is way too much volatility and uncertainty in those valuation estimates. These organizations are all managed as not-for-profits. Accounting in college athletics is too opaque for decision makers to rely on valuation estimates. Valuations assume synergies and continuation of trends that are not well scrutinized within college athletics. I believe that gross revenues are a much better financial indicator in college athletics.
Second, ND’s business model is that of a national player. It’s the exact opposite of Texas’ business model...where the Longhorns cater to a wealthy and passionate following throughout the Lone Star state. Over time the interests of the two major players (Texas and ND) would clash. Yet the Longhorns will always be the alpha program in an expanded B12. A marriage of ND into the B12 could work to maximize the next round of TV media payouts. But long term (beyond 2030?), it’s a very risky move for Notre Dame. It’s also an overall bad move for USC, who has a greater reliance on the lucrative California market.
Although media payouts currently stink with the ACC, the affiliation offers a lot more synergies to ND. There are compatible private, and elite public, universities that have a national branding mind-set. If ND ever wanted to be a full member, the ACC fits the ND business model better...so long as football drives the bus, ND would also become the alpha program.
You do realize that the rankings of values by the WSJ does tend to follow that of Gross Total Revenue fairly closely with minor deviations? And Valuations also measure the economic impact of a program upon its region and the scope of its national identification. I tend to put a bit more faith in it because it is inclusive of other factors along with Gross Total Revenue. And Notre Dame may have some tangential ties to privates but they would be more along the line of U.S.C. and Stanford than they would be with Duke. Yes they once conveniently shared the Big East with Syracuse and Pitt and B.C. But as a national power their gravitas and gtr and valuations more closely approximate those of Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Alabama. The ACC's top valued school, Clemson, would place 11th in the SEC. Notre Dame would be barely second.
And if N.D. wanted the academic associations of the ACC fully then yes they might take the plunge. But Notre Dame is trying to hang onto the branding of its nationally recognized athletic program of which football is the touchstone to its identity. The ACC would be an abysmal end to that image both financially and competitively. You serve an independent Notre Dame's purposes, much as the Big East, but if pushed to join a conference their football and their branding not to mention their finances would be better off elsewhere.
(02-10-2021 11:56 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 11:43 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-10-2021 01:19 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]Lot's of people speculate about Notre Dame joining the ACC in full. Some speculate about Notre Dame in the Big 10. But where would the Irish actually best fit?
Let's divorce ourselves from the he said / she said, fan, and message board assertions and just look at the data. Emotions cloud the mind. Data frequently explains the emotions even better than people. It might even explain in a new way why independence is so important to them.
Did you know that based on the WSJ valuations that if Notre Dame joined the ACC in full they would be worth 27.7% of the total value of an ACC with them in it? The next closest team would be Clemson and they would be worth maybe 9 or 10% of the total value of an ACC with Notre Dame in it.
This raises some serious questions as to how much the powers that be in the ACC would welcome them in full? Would North Carolina and Virginia and Duke which together in an ACC with Notre Dame in it would be worth maybe 17 or 18% of the total value really like losing their lead roles? Technically, if not for historical positions of power, they would long ago have lost that power to Clemson and Florida State. I can't see Tobacco Road willingly giving up that kind of power. Let the Irish cultivate alliances with Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Louisville and you would have an alliance worth a little over half of the total valuation. It would be a starkly different decision making process moving forward.
So even though the Irish want to hold onto Independence for monetary reasons, as the ACC is not nearly their best financial option, as long as they have independence they will keep the arrangement, with a group that doesn't really want them as full members for the aforementioned reasons.
In the Big 10 they would have plenty of money, but they would be always behind the leadership of Ohio State and Michigan who have more combined strength than 2/3rds of their conference. Notre Dame adds to their coffers, but doesn't have the say they want, is forced into a less national schedule, and suffers a bit of a national identity loss as they become 1 of 3 Indiana schools. So I get the Irish reticence to join the Big 10.
In the SEC they would be neck and neck with Alabama, but the SEC is the broadest at the top in valuations and in the SEC the Irish's total value would be around 13% of the total even though they would be 1st or 2nd just barely in valuation. Not much power, a lot of hard physical games, and again not much national exposure in scheduling, but great access to recruits and the best payday they could hope to find. But outside of Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Missouri not really close to anyone and minor sports again would suffer lots of travel overhead.
They would be worth almost 25% of the total PAC valuation, and would be numero uno out West. Travel for minor sports would kill them and they would come out much better financially doing what they do already and that's play 1 or 2 West coast schools on their terms.
The most fascinating option for Notre Dame would be the Big 12. They would be just behind Texas and just ahead of Oklahoma in value. They wouldn't have a grueling slug fest like in the SEC and they would be in contention for a playoff spot often enough. The money would be better than in the ACC, and Texas is a recruiting hotbed and with 4 Texas schools in the conference they would be in the Lone Star state at least once if not twice per season. But the Big 12 would desperately need to go to divisions. So who goes with them?
Well, if U.S.C. would leave the PAC 12 that would make quite the dynamic and with Notre Dame would raise conference revenues easily into mid 50's range. The trouble would then be twofold. Minor sports travel would still be a mess. Second the Big 12 would need to drop the number of conference games to 8 to give the Irish some flexibility. They would want to keep a game in the Southeast in either Georgia or Florida, they would want to keep 1 of the Cali schools but if U.S.C. came with them that can be one of the 8 conference games. They could keep a game in New England with Syracuse or B.C. and still have one left for a Big 10 match up.
Iowa State and Kansas might not be too bad on the travel, but a Northern Division would be in order to help the minor sports. If USC couldn't then perhaps Missouri, Louisville, or Nebraska could make such a move, or better yet Miami so the Big 12 could pick up Sunshine State recruiting trips. So there are possibilities.
I don't consider it likely, but if forced to choose a permanent home among the P5 that one would probably come with less overall hassle than any of the others while offering them a reasonable chance at the playoffs on a solid year and giving them at least 3 conference games of National Exposure and leaving them a couple more.
And if the Irish and Trojans could make the party then perhaps the LHN becomes the Big 12N after all.
In short it's the only conference where their numbers line up for a pay raise without damaging their chances for the playoffs, and without taking a bath financially, and it provides them at least an equal voice with Texas, Oklahoma, and U.S.C.
I find that interesting, never talked about, and from a data standpoint much more compelling than any of the other scenarios.
As with all things Notre Dame, they will want status quo. But if forced to ever have to join, I wonder if the ACC or Big 10 are really the only options, or even the best or healthiest ones.
First, although WSJ valuations may be directional, I believe that you are putting too much emphasis on their meaning. There is way too much volatility and uncertainty in those valuation estimates. These organizations are all managed as not-for-profits. Accounting in college athletics is too opaque for decision makers to rely on valuation estimates. Valuations assume synergies and continuation of trends that are not well scrutinized within college athletics. I believe that gross revenues are a much better financial indicator in college athletics.
Second, ND’s business model is that of a national player. It’s the exact opposite of Texas’ business model...where the Longhorns cater to a wealthy and passionate following throughout the Lone Star state. Over time the interests of the two major players (Texas and ND) would clash. Yet the Longhorns will always be the alpha program in an expanded B12. A marriage of ND into the B12 could work to maximize the next round of TV media payouts. But long term (beyond 2030?), it’s a very risky move for Notre Dame. It’s also an overall bad move for USC, who has a greater reliance on the lucrative California market.
Although media payouts currently stink with the ACC, the affiliation offers a lot more synergies to ND. There are compatible private, and elite public, universities that have a national branding mind-set. If ND ever wanted to be a full member, the ACC fits the ND business model better...so long as football drives the bus, ND would also become the alpha program.
You do realize that the rankings of values by the WSJ does tend to follow that of Gross Total Revenue fairly closely with minor deviations? And Valuations also measure the economic impact of a program upon its region and the scope of its national identification. I tend to put a bit more faith in it because it is inclusive of other factors along with Gross Total Revenue. And Notre Dame may have some tangential ties to privates but they would be more along the line of U.S.C. and Stanford than they would be with Duke. Yes they once conveniently shared the Big East with Syracuse and Pitt and B.C. But as a national power their gravitas and gtr and valuations more closely approximate those of Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Alabama. The ACC's top valued school, Clemson, would place 11th in the SEC. Notre Dame would be barely second.
And if N.D. wanted the academic associations of the ACC fully then yes they might take the plunge. But Notre Dame is trying to hang onto the branding of its nationally recognized athletic program of which football is the touchstone to its identity. The ACC would be an abysmal end to that image both financially and competitively. You serve an independent Notre Dame's purposes, much as the Big East, but if pushed to join a conference their football and their branding not to mention their finances would be better off elsewhere.
Per EADA reporting, ND’s revenues are less than 10% of total ACC members’ revenue. There is a massive difference between 10% (based on revenue) and 28% (based on “valuation”). In a for-profit world, valuations are bound by the present value of expected future profits. In college athletics, valuations are generally guesses (which could be good or bad). Note that the WSJ basketball valuation of UNC was cut by 50% recently...yet the team didn’t change conferences, nor did the Smith Center disappear, nor did Roy Williams retire.
If Clemson announced a switch from the ACC to the SEC, its WSJ “valuation” would likely more than double overnight. The WSJ is merely trying to guesstimate the present value of profits based on some Excel financial template. But this value all assumes the opportunity to extract profits from football.
Finally, the era were being an independent is required to maintain a national brand is long gone. Alabama and Ohio State have built the ideal models...their national brand is maintained because they play relevant games that are broadcast nationally on TV. Even smaller regional universities like Clemson and Oregon can create national brands in football. The days of Fielding Yost blackballing Notre Dame are gone, but the scars and traditions remain. The 2020 season proved that Notre Dame could actually enhance its brand by competing in a conference...regular season games against BC, Duke and UNC had strong ratings (not to mention the games against Clemson) because the games were more meaningful.
I don’t disagree that Notre Dame would maximize its revenue (and valuation) in the B10. But in the B10, financially they would be in a second tier behind OSU & Michigan...somewhat closer to Penn State and Wisconsin. Nevertheless, it’s awkward to be amongst all the massive research land grants...when your core has always focused on undergraduate academics.
(02-10-2021 01:19 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: [ -> ]Per EADA reporting, ND’s revenues are less than 10% of total ACC members’ revenue. There is a massive difference between 10% (based on revenue) and 28% (based on “valuation”). In a for-profit world, valuations are bound by the present value of expected future profits. In college athletics, valuations are generally guesses (which could be good or bad). Note that the WSJ basketball valuation of UNC was cut by 50% recently...yet the team didn’t change conferences, nor did the Smith Center disappear, nor did Roy Williams retire.
Yes, valuations of college sports programs by WSJ or Forbes or anyone else are purely guesstimates. An athletic department's actual revenue numbers are a proxy for their media value, but a limited one, and that's as far as it goes. There's no conference that has its schools share in each other's athletic department revenue; almost no one even shares football game ticket revenue any more. Alabama or Texas may sell out their stadium at premium prices, but none of that game day revenue goes to Vanderbilt or Baylor.
Media value is pretty much the only thing a new member can add to any P5 conference, because it's the only revenue that is shared among all conference members (other than March Madness shares, which are small in comparison to TV revenue).
If you are the president or AD of a university in a P5 conference, then when considering new members you should do what's best for your employer, and what's best for your employer isn't being charitable to a school that just wants to join, and it isn't thinking like a fan and adding a school that would be "fun" to have in the conference. If that's your job, then what's in your employer's best interest is making more money for its athletic department, which might mean considering some schools and not others, or it might mean adding no one at all and dividing revenue among as few schools as possible. And, if a new member doesn't add enough media value to boost the conference's (and your own school's) annual revenue per member both now and over the long haul, then it was probably a mistake to add that new member.
(02-10-2021 11:47 AM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ]I have a technical question - one I don't have a clue about the correct answer.
Notre Dame is not currently a member of the ACC for football. But they are a member for all other sports, including basketball (which makes the ACC their "home" conference within the NCAA).
If they were to join the Big XII for all sports, would the fact that they are now a member of the ACC mean they are subject to the exit fee in addition to the GoR? That would raise their cost to exit pretty high (in the ballpark of $100 million). Or is their something in ACC bylaws and their contract with Notre Dame that exempts them from an exit fee?
Does anyone know definitively the answer to this question?
Ken, I don't think anyone can give any definitive answers without reviewing the contractual documents between ND and the ACC in detail.
Are there specific exemptions or different valuations regarding ND since football is not included?
The exit fee, for example, is set on a percentage of conference revenues, correct?
Does that fully apply to an ND who doesn't share in most of those revenues?
The GOR cannot include ND football since ND's home rights are held by NBC.
We hear that ND signed a prospective deal to join the ACC if it joins any conference before 2036.
Has anyone seen or reviewed that document? What exactly does it say?
So, nobody knows for sure except those in the know.