02-05-2021, 12:19 PM
I used the annual recruiting point totals from Rivals and 247sports from the past eight years (2014 – 2021) to analyze the differences between the two ranking agencies.
There are 1040 observations (65 teams x 8 years x 2 agencies). Rival’s average team recruiting total is 1,723 points. For Rivals, the range between the best and worst P5 recruiting points total is generally about 3.5 times. By comparison, 247sports’ average recruiting is 216 points, and generally has a 2x range between highest & lowest points total.
Statistically, recruiting performance thresholds can be determined as,
a) Elite (>2 std dev higher than avg) is Rivals at 2795 and 247sports at 298 points
b) Strong (1-2 std dev higher than avg) is 2259 / 257
c) Average (< 1 std dev from avg) is 1723 / 216
d) Weak (1-2 std dev lower than avg) is 1187 / 175
e) Bad (>2 std dev lower than avg) is 651 / 133
In any given year, about 2 or 3 programs achieve elite recruiting status. According to both agencies, Alabama has achieved elite recruiting in the same 7 out of the past 8 years.
Bad recruiting classification is much less common amongst P5 programs. Only Oregon State (with 131 points per 247sports for the 2021 cycle) went below this threshold.
For the eight-year period, the average points results in the following classification:
Elite recruiting - Alabama is consensus elite by Rivals & 247sports. Georgia (2822/297) is elite per Rivals, but just misses with 247sports.
Strong recruiting – Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Texas A&M, USC, Florida State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame are consensus picks. In addition, 247sports has Tennessee, Florida, Texas and Auburn as strong recruiters…while Rivals has their recruiting as closer to average. Not surprisingly, Jimbo Fisher made a big difference when he moved from FSU to TAMU…as the recruiting ranking of those two schools are going in opposite directions.
Average – Mich, Oregon, PSU, Miami, Ole Miss, UCLA, SCar, Stan, UNC, Neb, Wash, MS St, MI St, Ark, KY, ASU, Wisc, TCU, VT, MD, NCSt, OK St, MO, WVU, Lou, Utah, Pitt, Cal, Bay, Iowa, GT, Minn, UVA, AZ, Van, Ind, TTU, Duke, NW, CO, ISU, WSU, Rutg, Cuse and Purdue have consensus average recruiting during this time period.
Weak recruiting – Illinois and Wake Forest are weak recruiting programs by both Rivals & 247sports. In addition, 247sports has KS, Ore St, BC and KSU with scores that make the weak threshold…but Rivals’ scores are closer to average recruiting.
I also added the 4-year recruiting talent of the teams that have made the CFP. This provides the floor threshold of cumulative recruiting talent it has taken to make the playoffs…greater than 2193 points in Rivals (ND's 2020 team) and 252 points in 247sports (Oklahoma's 2017 team). Based on prior experience, the teams that should have enough recruiting talent to make the CFP next year include: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida, Notre Dame, Michigan and Penn State. In addition, Auburn and Miami are straddling the recruiting talent line for teams that could compete in the 2021 playoffs.
There are 1040 observations (65 teams x 8 years x 2 agencies). Rival’s average team recruiting total is 1,723 points. For Rivals, the range between the best and worst P5 recruiting points total is generally about 3.5 times. By comparison, 247sports’ average recruiting is 216 points, and generally has a 2x range between highest & lowest points total.
Statistically, recruiting performance thresholds can be determined as,
a) Elite (>2 std dev higher than avg) is Rivals at 2795 and 247sports at 298 points
b) Strong (1-2 std dev higher than avg) is 2259 / 257
c) Average (< 1 std dev from avg) is 1723 / 216
d) Weak (1-2 std dev lower than avg) is 1187 / 175
e) Bad (>2 std dev lower than avg) is 651 / 133
In any given year, about 2 or 3 programs achieve elite recruiting status. According to both agencies, Alabama has achieved elite recruiting in the same 7 out of the past 8 years.
Bad recruiting classification is much less common amongst P5 programs. Only Oregon State (with 131 points per 247sports for the 2021 cycle) went below this threshold.
For the eight-year period, the average points results in the following classification:
Elite recruiting - Alabama is consensus elite by Rivals & 247sports. Georgia (2822/297) is elite per Rivals, but just misses with 247sports.
Strong recruiting – Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Texas A&M, USC, Florida State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame are consensus picks. In addition, 247sports has Tennessee, Florida, Texas and Auburn as strong recruiters…while Rivals has their recruiting as closer to average. Not surprisingly, Jimbo Fisher made a big difference when he moved from FSU to TAMU…as the recruiting ranking of those two schools are going in opposite directions.
Average – Mich, Oregon, PSU, Miami, Ole Miss, UCLA, SCar, Stan, UNC, Neb, Wash, MS St, MI St, Ark, KY, ASU, Wisc, TCU, VT, MD, NCSt, OK St, MO, WVU, Lou, Utah, Pitt, Cal, Bay, Iowa, GT, Minn, UVA, AZ, Van, Ind, TTU, Duke, NW, CO, ISU, WSU, Rutg, Cuse and Purdue have consensus average recruiting during this time period.
Weak recruiting – Illinois and Wake Forest are weak recruiting programs by both Rivals & 247sports. In addition, 247sports has KS, Ore St, BC and KSU with scores that make the weak threshold…but Rivals’ scores are closer to average recruiting.
I also added the 4-year recruiting talent of the teams that have made the CFP. This provides the floor threshold of cumulative recruiting talent it has taken to make the playoffs…greater than 2193 points in Rivals (ND's 2020 team) and 252 points in 247sports (Oklahoma's 2017 team). Based on prior experience, the teams that should have enough recruiting talent to make the CFP next year include: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida, Notre Dame, Michigan and Penn State. In addition, Auburn and Miami are straddling the recruiting talent line for teams that could compete in the 2021 playoffs.