What if.....
Clemson beats Notre Dame in the ACC title game.
Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championships game.
Texas A&M wins out.
Ohio State goes undefeated.
Oregon goes undefeated.
Cincinnati goes undefeated.
Which four teams make the playoff?
Committee = no chaos
Bring back the computers. Computers were unpredictable and fun. Committees are bland and boring.
(12-10-2020 12:18 AM)andy98 Wrote: [ -> ]What if.....
Clemson beats Notre Dame in the ACC title game.
Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championships game.
Texas A&M wins out.
Ohio State goes undefeated.
Oregon goes undefeated.
Cincinnati goes undefeated.
Which four teams make the playoff?
ND vs OSU for spot #4
Clemson, Bama, UF are in.
Think OSU gets #4
EDIT: Oregon already has 2 loses. Colorado and USCw are undefeated but probably already eliminated
(12-10-2020 12:18 AM)andy98 Wrote: [ -> ]What if.....
Clemson beats Notre Dame in the ACC title game.
Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championships game.
Texas A&M wins out.
Ohio State goes undefeated.
Oregon goes undefeated.
Cincinnati goes undefeated.
Which four teams make the playoff?
Clemson, Florida, Alabama, Ohio State. Notre Dame won a home game vs. Clemson in 3 OT without Trevor Lawrence, they're out. Ohio State's undefeated.
ND over OSU, if they keep it respectable. Honestly it should be Clemson OSU for a play in game.
Have u guys been watching the committee? It’ll be Iowa State.
(12-10-2020 01:00 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: [ -> ]Committee = no chaos
Bring back the computers. Computers were unpredictable and fun. Committees are bland and boring.
The computers always end up picking the same four as the committee.
There was a year in '03 where the Jason White led Sooners got throttled by Sproles and K-State. They still qualified for the title game. In a similar situation, Bama and ND could be out, so I agree completely with that scenario.
(12-10-2020 12:18 AM)andy98 Wrote: [ -> ]What if.....
Clemson beats Notre Dame in the ACC title game.
Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championships game.
Texas A&M wins out.
Ohio State goes undefeated.
Oregon goes undefeated.
Cincinnati goes undefeated.
Which four teams make the playoff?
Alabama, Clemson and Florida.
4th will be close depending on how close ND/Clemson is and how good Ohio St. looks vs. Northwestern.
(12-10-2020 10:32 AM)RUScarlets Wrote: [ -> ]There was a year in '03 where the Jason White led Sooners got throttled by Sproles and K-State. They still qualified for the title game. In a similar situation, Bama and ND could be out, so I agree completely with that scenario.
... and that fiasco was the second of a one-two punch (Nebraska did the same thing two years earlier, made the BCS title game despite getting creamed in the B12 title game) that caused a change in the BCS formula so it wouldn't happen again.
And IMO it will not happen again. Any team that gets crushed in their CCG will not make the playoffs. Any team, mark my words.
(12-10-2020 10:48 AM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (12-10-2020 10:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (12-10-2020 10:32 AM)RUScarlets Wrote: [ -> ]There was a year in '03 where the Jason White led Sooners got throttled by Sproles and K-State. They still qualified for the title game. In a similar situation, Bama and ND could be out, so I agree completely with that scenario.
... and that fiasco was the second of a one-two punch (Nebraska did the same thing two years earlier, made the BCS title game despite getting creamed in the B12 title game) that caused a change in the BCS formula so it wouldn't happen again.
And IMO it will not happen again. Any team that gets crushed in their CCG will not make the playoffs. Any team, mark my words.
+1
Well gimme my "+1" then, LOL.
Regardless of the scores, a lot depends on how the games are played and how the teams look. Notre Dame will still get into the CFP with a loss to Clemson - but it has to be close and not an infamous ND blowout. If it is a blowout, that would definitely lead to a opening for someone to not only leapfrog, but also kick out ND entirely. I cannot imagine the Alabama losing or getting blown out to Florida, but the same idea still applies. Alabama has a little more wiggle room in that department since is has convincing/dominating wins against A&M and Georgia. A&M cannot get in with Alabama out, IMO.
Thus, to the original question/hypothetical, assuming the games are competitive and close, I think we see Clemson, Florida, Alabama and Notre Dame, in that order. A&M would ultimately get hurt by not appearing in the SEC Championship and a blowout loss to Alabama. Ohio State would get hurt by the limited numbers of games it has played, as well as the lack of a top-10 team in the conference championship game in Northwestern. Apologies to Cincinnati, but I just don't think there is any possible scenario where they get in. Iowa State leap-frogging them with two losses should speak volumes to where the committee views them right now.
Ultimately, I do think that Alabama beats Florida, which knocks them out, and Clemson wins a close one against Notre Dame. That would put the final four as Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame (in some order). If ND beats Clemson again, they are easily #2, with Ohio State in and then A&M sneaking in at #4. Like Cincinnati, I just cannot see a scenario where the Big 12 Champion gets in. If Iowa State was 5/6, it is possible, but maybe with an ND/Clemson blowout and an OSU loss to Northwestern, it allows ISU/OU to squeak in, but I'm not sure how the B12 Champion gets over A&M. Iowa State would need to win convincingly against OU to make a serious push.
(12-10-2020 10:49 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: [ -> ]Regardless of the scores, a lot depends on how the games are played and how the teams look. Notre Dame will still get into the CFP with a loss to Clemson - but it has to be close and not an infamous ND blowout. If it is a blowout, that would definitely lead to a opening for someone to not only leapfrog, but also kick out ND entirely. I cannot imagine the Alabama losing or getting blown out to Florida, but the same idea still applies. Alabama has a little more wiggle room in that department since is has convincing/dominating wins against A&M and Georgia. A&M cannot get in with Alabama out, IMO.
You know, on second thought, this unique virus situation creates a possible caveat to my claim that no team that gets blown out in their CCG will make the playoffs. The exception would be if Notre Dame or Alabama is forced to play their CCG with heavy losses due to the virus, lots of key guys can't suit up because of virus protocols but still enough to go ahead with the game.
If that's the scenario, then I think that excuse could get them in despite a blowout loss.
(12-10-2020 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (12-10-2020 10:49 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: [ -> ]Regardless of the scores, a lot depends on how the games are played and how the teams look. Notre Dame will still get into the CFP with a loss to Clemson - but it has to be close and not an infamous ND blowout. If it is a blowout, that would definitely lead to a opening for someone to not only leapfrog, but also kick out ND entirely. I cannot imagine the Alabama losing or getting blown out to Florida, but the same idea still applies. Alabama has a little more wiggle room in that department since is has convincing/dominating wins against A&M and Georgia. A&M cannot get in with Alabama out, IMO.
You know, on second thought, this unique virus situation creates a possible caveat to my claim that no team that gets blown out in their CCG will make the playoffs. The exception would be if Notre Dame or Alabama is forced to play their CCG with heavy losses due to the virus, lots of key guys can't suit up because of virus protocols but still enough to go ahead with the game.
If that's the scenario, then I think that excuse could get them in despite a blowout loss.
The committee is talking about how impressed they were with Ohio St. when they blew out a bad Michigan ST. team with 3 O line starters out. But then they are easily impressed if its Ohio St. or Alabama.
Oklahoma St. in 2011 lost a close game on the road to Iowa St. a couple days after a plane crash killed several members of the OSU athletic deparment. The whole university was in shock. Committee decided Alabama deserved another shot vs. LSU. ESPN acted like Oklahoma St. didn't even exist.
(12-10-2020 11:01 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (12-10-2020 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (12-10-2020 10:49 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: [ -> ]Regardless of the scores, a lot depends on how the games are played and how the teams look. Notre Dame will still get into the CFP with a loss to Clemson - but it has to be close and not an infamous ND blowout. If it is a blowout, that would definitely lead to a opening for someone to not only leapfrog, but also kick out ND entirely. I cannot imagine the Alabama losing or getting blown out to Florida, but the same idea still applies. Alabama has a little more wiggle room in that department since is has convincing/dominating wins against A&M and Georgia. A&M cannot get in with Alabama out, IMO.
You know, on second thought, this unique virus situation creates a possible caveat to my claim that no team that gets blown out in their CCG will make the playoffs. The exception would be if Notre Dame or Alabama is forced to play their CCG with heavy losses due to the virus, lots of key guys can't suit up because of virus protocols but still enough to go ahead with the game.
If that's the scenario, then I think that excuse could get them in despite a blowout loss.
The committee is talking about how impressed they were with Ohio St. when they blew out a bad Michigan ST. team with 3 O line starters out. But then they are easily impressed if its Ohio St. or Alabama.
Oklahoma St. in 2011 lost a close game on the road to Iowa St. a couple days after a plane crash killed several members of the OSU athletic deparment. The whole university was in shock. Committee decided Alabama deserved another shot vs. LSU. ESPN acted like Oklahoma St. didn't even exist.
The BCS did that. There was no committee.
(12-10-2020 11:10 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote: [ -> ] (12-10-2020 11:01 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (12-10-2020 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (12-10-2020 10:49 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: [ -> ]Regardless of the scores, a lot depends on how the games are played and how the teams look. Notre Dame will still get into the CFP with a loss to Clemson - but it has to be close and not an infamous ND blowout. If it is a blowout, that would definitely lead to a opening for someone to not only leapfrog, but also kick out ND entirely. I cannot imagine the Alabama losing or getting blown out to Florida, but the same idea still applies. Alabama has a little more wiggle room in that department since is has convincing/dominating wins against A&M and Georgia. A&M cannot get in with Alabama out, IMO.
You know, on second thought, this unique virus situation creates a possible caveat to my claim that no team that gets blown out in their CCG will make the playoffs. The exception would be if Notre Dame or Alabama is forced to play their CCG with heavy losses due to the virus, lots of key guys can't suit up because of virus protocols but still enough to go ahead with the game.
If that's the scenario, then I think that excuse could get them in despite a blowout loss.
The committee is talking about how impressed they were with Ohio St. when they blew out a bad Michigan ST. team with 3 O line starters out. But then they are easily impressed if its Ohio St. or Alabama.
Oklahoma St. in 2011 lost a close game on the road to Iowa St. a couple days after a plane crash killed several members of the OSU athletic deparment. The whole university was in shock. Committee decided Alabama deserved another shot vs. LSU. ESPN acted like Oklahoma St. didn't even exist.
The BCS did that. There was no committee.
Yes, and the irony is, had the same BCS formula been in use in 2011 as existed in 2003, Oklahoma State would have gotten in over Alabama. The 2003-era formula was heavily weighted towards the computers, and OKST was #2 in the computers, Alabama was #3. But the newer formula put more weight on the human element, and Alabama was #2 in both the Coaches and Harris polls (FWIW, Alabama was also #2 in the AP poll as well).
In contrast, in 2003, Oklahoma got in over USC because even though USC was #1 in both polls and Oklahoma (after their blowout CCG loss) was #3, Oklahoma remained #1 in the computers.
More accurately, the pollsters did that. The BCS computers wanted Oklahoma St.
But the whole problem with the BCS was they could only pick 2. Picking 4 has saved the committee from backlash.