I know most Mondays this year have been "Miserable Mondays" or something similar.
I have been following the public information on the Pfizer Covid vaccine as I have been able to get in the news media (I'll look for more scientific articles later).
The sample size (n=43K) and number of + infections over both the experimental group (received the vaccine) and control group (received the placebo) is very, very small, 94 (combined) to be exact.
The results appear very promising.
This isn't a study where say two groups of hypertensive people take a experimental med and the other group a placebo and the experimental group lowers their systolic blood pressure say 5 - 7 points while the placebo group their BP might go down 1 or 2 points. That may be statistically significant (with large groups) but NOT CLINICALLY significant. If your systolic BP is 155, going from 155 to 150 isn't going to help a whole helluva lot.
OTOH, if we had two groups for a vaccine say each n=100K and after 6 months say 1,500 of the placebo group got infected (incidence rate 1.5 per 100) vs. say 150 for the vaccine group (incidence rate 0.15 per 100) that is HUGE!!
That would build up herd immunity quickly as the 'treated group' would not be spreading the virus to others.
I'd think a good chance by spring or summer we might have enough people immunized that incidence and prevalence will be pretty low.
I would then have no fear attending indoor events with a mask and maybe outdoor events without a mask.
We just might have a normal 2021 football season...
And thousands and thousands for a big EMU MBB home game... :)
(11-09-2020 12:55 PM)emu steve Wrote: [ -> ]I know most Mondays this year have been "Miserable Mondays" or something similar.
I have been following the public information on the Pfizer Covid vaccine as I have been able to get in the news media (I'll look for more scientific articles later).
The sample size (n=43K) and number of + infections over both the experimental group (received the vaccine) and control group (received the placebo) is very, very small, 94 (combined) to be exact.
The results appear very promising.
This isn't a study where say two groups of hypertensive people take a experimental med and the other group a placebo and the experimental group lowers their systolic blood pressure say 5 - 7 points while the placebo group their BP might go down 1 or 2 points. That may be statistically significant (with large groups) but NOT CLINICALLY significant. If your systolic BP is 155, going from 155 to 150 isn't going to help a whole helluva lot.
OTOH, if we had two groups for a vaccine say each n=100K and after 6 months say 1,500 of the placebo group got infected (incidence rate 1.5 per 100) vs. say 150 for the vaccine group (incidence rate 0.15 per 100) that is HUGE!!
That would build up herd immunity quickly as the 'treated group' would not be spreading the virus to others.
I'd think a good chance by spring or summer we might have enough people immunized that incidence and prevalence will be pretty low.
I would then have no fear attending indoor events with a mask and maybe outdoor events without a mask.
We just might have a normal 2021 football season... And thousands and thousands for a big EMU MBB home game... :)
Unfortunately the public perception of these vaccines is pretty low. In order for them to work on a societal level, we'd need a high percentage of the population to get vaccinated in roughly the next 7-8 months for there to be a "regular" football season. Vaccine or not, I think we're going to be seeing some form of social distancing until 2022 at minimum.
Fortunately for EMU sports though, the typical demand for tickets allows for spaced seating. I would think we could have a somewhat normal (for us) crowd at football games. P5 schools will probably have to take a hit on ticket revenue.
The crowd rushing the field in South Bend this weekend shows the dangers of any large gathering. The worst of this virus is just beginning.
(11-09-2020 01:39 PM)eastcoasteagle Wrote: [ -> ] (11-09-2020 12:55 PM)emu steve Wrote: [ -> ]I know most Mondays this year have been "Miserable Mondays" or something similar.
I have been following the public information on the Pfizer Covid vaccine as I have been able to get in the news media (I'll look for more scientific articles later).
The sample size (n=43K) and number of + infections over both the experimental group (received the vaccine) and control group (received the placebo) is very, very small, 94 (combined) to be exact.
The results appear very promising.
This isn't a study where say two groups of hypertensive people take a experimental med and the other group a placebo and the experimental group lowers their systolic blood pressure say 5 - 7 points while the placebo group their BP might go down 1 or 2 points. That may be statistically significant (with large groups) but NOT CLINICALLY significant. If your systolic BP is 155, going from 155 to 150 isn't going to help a whole helluva lot.
OTOH, if we had two groups for a vaccine say each n=100K and after 6 months say 1,500 of the placebo group got infected (incidence rate 1.5 per 100) vs. say 150 for the vaccine group (incidence rate 0.15 per 100) that is HUGE!!
That would build up herd immunity quickly as the 'treated group' would not be spreading the virus to others.
I'd think a good chance by spring or summer we might have enough people immunized that incidence and prevalence will be pretty low.
I would then have no fear attending indoor events with a mask and maybe outdoor events without a mask.
We just might have a normal 2021 football season... And thousands and thousands for a big EMU MBB home game... :)
Unfortunately the public perception of these vaccines is pretty low. In order for them to work on a societal level, we'd need a high percentage of the population to get vaccinated in roughly the next 7-8 months for there to be a "regular" football season. Vaccine or not, I think we're going to be seeing some form of social distancing until 2022 at minimum.
Fortunately for EMU sports though, the typical demand for tickets allows for spaced seating. I would think we could have a somewhat normal (for us) crowd at football games. P5 schools will probably have to take a hit on ticket revenue.
The crowd rushing the field in South Bend this weekend shows the dangers of any large gathering. The worst of this virus is just beginning.
Interesting view point.
I believe Pfizer said they hope to have 50M doses for the U.S. - Enough for 25M people (2 doses per person).
That alone should be enough to cover two or three main groups: high contact persons (e.g., Health care, persons will a lot of person contact like teachers, etc.), high risk medical patients, and say seniors 65+.
I assume the lowest priority group would be healthy person < aged 40 even though they are probably the main spreaders.
Wild guess: Everyone who wants to be vaccinated can be by July 1, 2021???
I agree that say 1/3 of the population might refuse it.