10-11-2020, 02:16 PM
Teams with 1st Loss Week 6:
Miami (FL)
Tennessee
Florida
Virginia Tech
Temple
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
13: The 10 conference champs (including conferences that have not yet started), plus Liberty, UMass, and BYU.
Percent of Undefeateds with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 6.5% (5 of 77)
Week 2: 18.1% (13 of 72)
Week 3: 13.6% (8 of 59)
Week 4: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 5: 35.3% (12 of 34)
Week 6: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 6 Thoughts:
-This will be the smallest week for undefeated teams for awhile on this list as I am adding in the teams who begin later in the season for next week. I'm going to wait awhile on 1-loss and winless lists as they don't make sense with so many teams not having played a game yet.
-Some big upsets. Florida and LSU losing in the SEC don't do much to reduce the odds of an SEC in the Rose/Sugar bowls, but it is starting to effect the SEC's chances at 2 teams. Without a lot of direct comparison between conferences, the committee is probably going to generally side with giving the benefit of the doubt to conference champs. The SEC gets someone in pretty much no matter what, but to get a 2nd team, I think the 2nd team needs to look extremely strong as it probably won't get the benefit of the doubt vs. other conferences if the two are close. To that end, LSU's 2nd loss and Florida's 1st don't help. There are plenty of paths still for the conference to get two in still, but not as many as there were.
-On the Big 12's end, the two premiere football teams both already have 2 losses. We have yet to have a 2-loss team make the CFP and, while that is coming (and by the past two decades of viewing, it is shocking we haven't had one yet), this year's Big 12 probably is not the strongest candidate to be the first. That means, the conference really needs to hope undefeated Oklahoma State or one of the 1-loss teams runs the table.
Week 7 Thoughts:
We have 3 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Georgia @ undefeated Alabama: The last two undefeated teams in the SEC. Alabama had a bit of a scare last week vs. Ole Miss, but kept scoring and is back at home this week. For the SEC, these are probably the two most likely teams to both make the SEC Championship and make the CFP bowls.
Undefeated Coastal Carolina @ undefeated Louisiana-Lafayette (Wednesday): This game was postponed from last week and is a big one for the Sun Belt. They are its last two teams remaining undefeated and the winner here will likely be the Sun Belt's only chance at a NY6 bowl.
Undefeated BYU @ undefeated Houston (Friday): Houston only had its first game last week. BYU won last week, but only by a touchdown. It needs to look impressive in most its games if it wants an at large NY6 spot given a reduced schedule. On the flip side, for Houston and the American this game is a chance to add a good out of conference win at year when there are few of them to get.
Undefeated Cincinnati @ Tulsa: Tulsa took down UCF a couple weeks ago. Now they have the Bearcats at home. If Cincinnati wins this, consider them the favorite for the conference and the NY6 spot.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 3, American: 3, Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 3, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 3, total: 17
Note: I am counting Air Force as an independent until I bring the Mountain West back to this list.
Clemson
North Carolina
Oklahoma State
Cincinnati
Marshall
Houston
Rice
Southern Methodist
Air Force
Brigham Young
Georgia
Alabama
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
Miami (FL)
Tennessee
Florida
Virginia Tech
Temple
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
13: The 10 conference champs (including conferences that have not yet started), plus Liberty, UMass, and BYU.
Percent of Undefeateds with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 6.5% (5 of 77)
Week 2: 18.1% (13 of 72)
Week 3: 13.6% (8 of 59)
Week 4: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 5: 35.3% (12 of 34)
Week 6: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 6 Thoughts:
-This will be the smallest week for undefeated teams for awhile on this list as I am adding in the teams who begin later in the season for next week. I'm going to wait awhile on 1-loss and winless lists as they don't make sense with so many teams not having played a game yet.
-Some big upsets. Florida and LSU losing in the SEC don't do much to reduce the odds of an SEC in the Rose/Sugar bowls, but it is starting to effect the SEC's chances at 2 teams. Without a lot of direct comparison between conferences, the committee is probably going to generally side with giving the benefit of the doubt to conference champs. The SEC gets someone in pretty much no matter what, but to get a 2nd team, I think the 2nd team needs to look extremely strong as it probably won't get the benefit of the doubt vs. other conferences if the two are close. To that end, LSU's 2nd loss and Florida's 1st don't help. There are plenty of paths still for the conference to get two in still, but not as many as there were.
-On the Big 12's end, the two premiere football teams both already have 2 losses. We have yet to have a 2-loss team make the CFP and, while that is coming (and by the past two decades of viewing, it is shocking we haven't had one yet), this year's Big 12 probably is not the strongest candidate to be the first. That means, the conference really needs to hope undefeated Oklahoma State or one of the 1-loss teams runs the table.
Week 7 Thoughts:
We have 3 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Georgia @ undefeated Alabama: The last two undefeated teams in the SEC. Alabama had a bit of a scare last week vs. Ole Miss, but kept scoring and is back at home this week. For the SEC, these are probably the two most likely teams to both make the SEC Championship and make the CFP bowls.
Undefeated Coastal Carolina @ undefeated Louisiana-Lafayette (Wednesday): This game was postponed from last week and is a big one for the Sun Belt. They are its last two teams remaining undefeated and the winner here will likely be the Sun Belt's only chance at a NY6 bowl.
Undefeated BYU @ undefeated Houston (Friday): Houston only had its first game last week. BYU won last week, but only by a touchdown. It needs to look impressive in most its games if it wants an at large NY6 spot given a reduced schedule. On the flip side, for Houston and the American this game is a chance to add a good out of conference win at year when there are few of them to get.
Undefeated Cincinnati @ Tulsa: Tulsa took down UCF a couple weeks ago. Now they have the Bearcats at home. If Cincinnati wins this, consider them the favorite for the conference and the NY6 spot.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 3, American: 3, Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 3, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 3, total: 17
Note: I am counting Air Force as an independent until I bring the Mountain West back to this list.
Clemson
North Carolina
Oklahoma State
Cincinnati
Marshall
Houston
Rice
Southern Methodist
Air Force
Brigham Young
Georgia
Alabama
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Coastal Carolina
Liberty