CSNbbs

It certainly will solidify his base and turn them out for the election.

(06-03-2020 02:05 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote: [ -> ]It certainly will solidify his base and turn them out for the election.

It's not 1968 and remember the incumbent didn't seek another term. Johnson refused to run. Nixon beat Humphrey so I don't think the comparison is valid.

I have two concerns about this election.

Covid covering the demand for easily abused mail in ballots especially those coming from states where the governor is a Democrat and precinct fraud likely rampant as it was in '16.

And like in a reprise of the Black Panthers intimidating voters at polling spots in Pennsylvania in '08 I can see the ANTIFA crap spontaneously but well organized to have some drive by presence at polling spots that might be up for grabs between Dems and Republicans.

The violence and threat of violence will intimidate older voters and if Dem mayors don't dispatch the police it could have an impact. I doubt they waste their time in solid red states but key precincts in key swing states are where I expect real problems and the Republicans are lousy about challenging these things on the spot and while it still makes a difference. We easily lost 5 house seats in '16 because we failed to challenge fraud and absentee ballot stuffing.

No clue.

Does the disorder hurt the incumbent? Or does it hurt the Democrats who support disorder?

Its not going to impact the Republicans. They will support President Trump and the Republicans more strongly than ever.
Its not clear if it depresses or increases the Democrats vote, but they won't be voting for Trump.

So how does the middle vote? Really don't know.

Last year the NM Gov. got minimum wage raised and it will continue to go up in the coming years. She did not get support from the small business community. It has been seen that she is using the WuFlu to get back at the small business owners. A lot of Dem Small business owners are disgusted with how our Gov. has treated small businesses during the lock down. Fining them and sending state police to shut them down. Intimidate them. The protest here may be small but businesses have been looted and damaged. Protesters are allowed to do what they want, but people cannot opened up their businesses to make a living. Her lack of response and support of the protests is pushing many of them to vote Red this fall.

A lot of people feeling afraid to speak out right now will be voting Trump. It will be a landslide

(06-10-2020 09:09 PM)Claw Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of people feeling afraid to speak out right now will be voting Trump. It will be a landslide

I don't know about a landslide, but I suspect that his base is more energized to see him returned to office than before. Folks who might have stayed home will now get in line for him. Now how does "the middle" see all this? 10 years ago I'd think it was a lock for Trump, now we'll have to wait and see.

(06-11-2020 09:43 AM)49RFootballNow Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-10-2020 09:09 PM)Claw Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of people feeling afraid to speak out right now will be voting Trump. It will be a landslide

I don't know about a landslide, but I suspect that his base is more energized to see him returned to office than before. Folks who might have stayed home will now get in line for him. Now how does "the middle" see all this? 10 years ago I'd think it was a lock for Trump, now we'll have to wait and see.

I didn't vote for Trump in 2016. I don't think my wife did either. So we're at least 2 different parts of "the middle."

I changed my mind after the CovCath kid fiasco at the pro-life rally.

My wife was on the fence. She wasn't a big fan of how Trump handled the coronavirus. But these riots & protests are pushing her to vote for Trump this time around. She doesn't understand why there's a need to protest against the whole law enforcement system when the department has disavowed him and the prosecutors have charged him with murder. And she's really mad at Democrat politicians not doing anything to stop the rioters. And she's FURIOUS at Democrat politicians (like our governor) suspending social distancing laws for protesters but forbidding our kids from using the playground or going to their gymnastics classes.

Well as we all know, it’s the swing states that will decide. In 2016, these states were not enthused with Clinton.

Their ‘defection’ was enough to turn the tide in several critical swing states. Take Michigan, for example. Trump won all 16 electoral votes with a majority of 10,704 voters. Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 51,463.

Whatever turnout Trump gets in the forever red States doesn’t really matter; there are only X electoral votes. Same with the turnout in the eternal blue States.

I haven’t paid much attention, but I don’t think there is a candidate like Stein that will split the Democrats this time.

(06-14-2020 04:07 AM)snowtiger Wrote: [ -> ]I haven’t paid much attention, but I don’t think there is a candidate like Stein that will split the Democrats this time.

Howie Hawkins will be the Green Party nominee and the Socialist Party nominee and he co-founded the Green Party in 1984.

(06-14-2020 04:07 AM)snowtiger Wrote: [ -> ]Well as we all know, it’s the swing states that will decide. In 2016, these states were not enthused with Clinton.

Their ‘defection’ was enough to turn the tide in several critical swing states. Take Michigan, for example. Trump won all 16 electoral votes with a majority of 10,704 voters. Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 51,463.

Whatever turnout Trump gets in the forever red States doesn’t really matter; there are only X electoral votes. Same with the turnout in the eternal blue States.

I haven’t paid much attention, but I don’t think there is a candidate like Stein that will split the Democrats this time.

Jill Stein had 1,457,000 votes.
Evan McMullin had 732,000.
Gary Johnson had 4,489,000.

Trump was handicapped more than Clinton nationally and also in some of the close states. There is no Evan McMullin and the Libertarians will get a lot less than 4.5 million.

I was not for Trump in 2016 during the nomination process, because I thought he couldn't win. I didn't vote for him in the general, because the way I saw it the best he could be was better than the best Hillary could be, but the worst he could be was worse than the worst Hillary could be. So I voted for Gary Johnson and was very happy with that vote. In the end, Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary.

Looking at 2020, I think he may be the only republican who can lose to senile Joe Biden. And I think Biden is a Trojan horse, intended to get his nose under the tent, and then be 25th Amendmented in order to install whatever radical VP candidate he chooses. So I am very fearful of the outcome in November.

With that in mind, I wonder about something. Suppose Trump decided that one term was enough, and republicans nominated someone like Nikki Hailey. I don't think Pence works, because I think his appeal is too narrow, but he could stay on the ticket as VP. You'd have a candidate with much greater appeal to women and minorities, and she'd clearly have the age and dementia issues versus Biden. Do that and return to being the Party of Lincoln, with a platform based around ending the welfare plantation and increasing economic opportunity for people of color. Both the black and hispanic communities are already pretty conservative on the religious front, so you'd have a natural in with them there, and if you offered them something for their pocketbook you might get 30% of their vote. Do that with blacks and hispanics, and this election is a rout.

The one negative I see about Hailey is that I'd really like to see Tim Scott as the VP nominee, and you wouldn't want two from South Carolina in a close election because of the constitutional provision regarding electoral votes. I suppose she could replace Pence with somebody like Conde Rice, but that might be too much of a foreign policy emphasis (former Sec State plus former UN ambassador), so I could see sticking with Pence.

(06-29-2020 11:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]I was not for Trump in 2016 during the nomination process, because I thought he couldn't win. I didn't vote for him in the general, because the way I saw it the best he could be was better than the best Hillary could be, but the worst he could be was worse than the worst Hillary could be. So I voted for Gary Johnson and was very happy with that vote. In the end, Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary.

Looking at 2020, I think he may be the only republican who can lose to senile Joe Biden. And I think Biden is a Trojan horse, intended to get his nose under the tent, and then be 25th Amendmented in order to install whatever radical VP candidate he chooses. So I am very fearful of the outcome in November.

With that in mind, I wonder about something. Suppose Trump decided that one term was enough, and republicans nominated someone like Nikki Hailey. I don't think Pence works, because I think his appeal is too narrow, but he could stay on the ticket as VP. You'd have a candidate with much greater appeal to women and minorities, and she'd clearly have the age and dementia issues versus Biden. Do that and return to being the Party of Lincoln, with a platform based around ending the welfare plantation and increasing economic opportunity for people of color. Both the black and hispanic communities are already pretty conservative on the religious front, so you'd have a natural in with them there, and if you offered them something for their pocketbook you might get 30% of their vote. Do that with blacks and hispanics, and this election is a rout.

The one negative I see about Hailey is that I'd really like to see Tim Scott as the VP nominee, and you wouldn't want two from South Carolina in a close election because of the constitutional provision regarding electoral votes. I suppose she could replace Pence with somebody like Conde Rice, but that might be too much of a foreign policy emphasis (former Sec State plus former UN ambassador), so I could see sticking with Pence.

I would hate it if the Republicans got into quotas like the Democrats.

(06-29-2020 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 11:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]I was not for Trump in 2016 during the nomination process, because I thought he couldn't win. I didn't vote for him in the general, because the way I saw it the best he could be was better than the best Hillary could be, but the worst he could be was worse than the worst Hillary could be. So I voted for Gary Johnson and was very happy with that vote. In the end, Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary.
Looking at 2020, I think he may be the only republican who can lose to senile Joe Biden. And I think Biden is a Trojan horse, intended to get his nose under the tent, and then be 25th Amendmented in order to install whatever radical VP candidate he chooses. So I am very fearful of the outcome in November.
With that in mind, I wonder about something. Suppose Trump decided that one term was enough, and republicans nominated someone like Nikki Hailey. I don't think Pence works, because I think his appeal is too narrow, but he could stay on the ticket as VP. You'd have a candidate with much greater appeal to women and minorities, and she'd clearly have the age and dementia issues versus Biden. Do that and return to being the Party of Lincoln, with a platform based around ending the welfare plantation and increasing economic opportunity for people of color. Both the black and hispanic communities are already pretty conservative on the religious front, so you'd have a natural in with them there, and if you offered them something for their pocketbook you might get 30% of their vote. Do that with blacks and hispanics, and this election is a rout.
The one negative I see about Hailey is that I'd really like to see Tim Scott as the VP nominee, and you wouldn't want two from South Carolina in a close election because of the constitutional provision regarding electoral votes. I suppose she could replace Pence with somebody like Conde Rice, but that might be too much of a foreign policy emphasis (former Sec State plus former UN ambassador), so I could see sticking with Pence.

I would hate it if the Republicans got into quotas like the Democrats.

I'm not proposing it as a quota, I'm proposing it as a way to win an election.

(06-29-2020 07:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 11:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]I was not for Trump in 2016 during the nomination process, because I thought he couldn't win. I didn't vote for him in the general, because the way I saw it the best he could be was better than the best Hillary could be, but the worst he could be was worse than the worst Hillary could be. So I voted for Gary Johnson and was very happy with that vote. In the end, Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary.
Looking at 2020, I think he may be the only republican who can lose to senile Joe Biden. And I think Biden is a Trojan horse, intended to get his nose under the tent, and then be 25th Amendmented in order to install whatever radical VP candidate he chooses. So I am very fearful of the outcome in November.
With that in mind, I wonder about something. Suppose Trump decided that one term was enough, and republicans nominated someone like Nikki Hailey. I don't think Pence works, because I think his appeal is too narrow, but he could stay on the ticket as VP. You'd have a candidate with much greater appeal to women and minorities, and she'd clearly have the age and dementia issues versus Biden. Do that and return to being the Party of Lincoln, with a platform based around ending the welfare plantation and increasing economic opportunity for people of color. Both the black and hispanic communities are already pretty conservative on the religious front, so you'd have a natural in with them there, and if you offered them something for their pocketbook you might get 30% of their vote. Do that with blacks and hispanics, and this election is a rout.
The one negative I see about Hailey is that I'd really like to see Tim Scott as the VP nominee, and you wouldn't want two from South Carolina in a close election because of the constitutional provision regarding electoral votes. I suppose she could replace Pence with somebody like Conde Rice, but that might be too much of a foreign policy emphasis (former Sec State plus former UN ambassador), so I could see sticking with Pence.

I would hate it if the Republicans got into quotas like the Democrats.

I'm not proposing it as a quota, I'm proposing it as a way to win an election.

How did Sarah Palin work out?

(06-30-2020 07:38 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 07:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 11:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]I was not for Trump in 2016 during the nomination process, because I thought he couldn't win. I didn't vote for him in the general, because the way I saw it the best he could be was better than the best Hillary could be, but the worst he could be was worse than the worst Hillary could be. So I voted for Gary Johnson and was very happy with that vote. In the end, Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary.
Looking at 2020, I think he may be the only republican who can lose to senile Joe Biden. And I think Biden is a Trojan horse, intended to get his nose under the tent, and then be 25th Amendmented in order to install whatever radical VP candidate he chooses. So I am very fearful of the outcome in November.
With that in mind, I wonder about something. Suppose Trump decided that one term was enough, and republicans nominated someone like Nikki Hailey. I don't think Pence works, because I think his appeal is too narrow, but he could stay on the ticket as VP. You'd have a candidate with much greater appeal to women and minorities, and she'd clearly have the age and dementia issues versus Biden. Do that and return to being the Party of Lincoln, with a platform based around ending the welfare plantation and increasing economic opportunity for people of color. Both the black and hispanic communities are already pretty conservative on the religious front, so you'd have a natural in with them there, and if you offered them something for their pocketbook you might get 30% of their vote. Do that with blacks and hispanics, and this election is a rout.
The one negative I see about Hailey is that I'd really like to see Tim Scott as the VP nominee, and you wouldn't want two from South Carolina in a close election because of the constitutional provision regarding electoral votes. I suppose she could replace Pence with somebody like Conde Rice, but that might be too much of a foreign policy emphasis (former Sec State plus former UN ambassador), so I could see sticking with Pence.

I would hate it if the Republicans got into quotas like the Democrats.

I'm not proposing it as a quota, I'm proposing it as a way to win an election.

How did Sarah Palin work out?

Caribou Barbie as they call her in Alaska was McCain's way of saying to the world "I'm not serious about becoming President!"

And as Stink might end it #Obama teaser pony

(06-30-2020 07:38 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 07:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 11:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]I was not for Trump in 2016 during the nomination process, because I thought he couldn't win. I didn't vote for him in the general, because the way I saw it the best he could be was better than the best Hillary could be, but the worst he could be was worse than the worst Hillary could be. So I voted for Gary Johnson and was very happy with that vote. In the end, Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary.
Looking at 2020, I think he may be the only republican who can lose to senile Joe Biden. And I think Biden is a Trojan horse, intended to get his nose under the tent, and then be 25th Amendmented in order to install whatever radical VP candidate he chooses. So I am very fearful of the outcome in November.
With that in mind, I wonder about something. Suppose Trump decided that one term was enough, and republicans nominated someone like Nikki Hailey. I don't think Pence works, because I think his appeal is too narrow, but he could stay on the ticket as VP. You'd have a candidate with much greater appeal to women and minorities, and she'd clearly have the age and dementia issues versus Biden. Do that and return to being the Party of Lincoln, with a platform based around ending the welfare plantation and increasing economic opportunity for people of color. Both the black and hispanic communities are already pretty conservative on the religious front, so you'd have a natural in with them there, and if you offered them something for their pocketbook you might get 30% of their vote. Do that with blacks and hispanics, and this election is a rout.
The one negative I see about Hailey is that I'd really like to see Tim Scott as the VP nominee, and you wouldn't want two from South Carolina in a close election because of the constitutional provision regarding electoral votes. I suppose she could replace Pence with somebody like Conde Rice, but that might be too much of a foreign policy emphasis (former Sec State plus former UN ambassador), so I could see sticking with Pence.

I would hate it if the Republicans got into quotas like the Democrats.

I'm not proposing it as a quota, I'm proposing it as a way to win an election.

How did Sarah Palin work out?

WTF does that have to do with 2020? For that matter, WTF does Sarah Palin have to do with Nikki Hailey?

(06-30-2020 10:06 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-30-2020 07:38 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 07:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 11:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]I was not for Trump in 2016 during the nomination process, because I thought he couldn't win. I didn't vote for him in the general, because the way I saw it the best he could be was better than the best Hillary could be, but the worst he could be was worse than the worst Hillary could be. So I voted for Gary Johnson and was very happy with that vote. In the end, Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary.
Looking at 2020, I think he may be the only republican who can lose to senile Joe Biden. And I think Biden is a Trojan horse, intended to get his nose under the tent, and then be 25th Amendmented in order to install whatever radical VP candidate he chooses. So I am very fearful of the outcome in November.
With that in mind, I wonder about something. Suppose Trump decided that one term was enough, and republicans nominated someone like Nikki Hailey. I don't think Pence works, because I think his appeal is too narrow, but he could stay on the ticket as VP. You'd have a candidate with much greater appeal to women and minorities, and she'd clearly have the age and dementia issues versus Biden. Do that and return to being the Party of Lincoln, with a platform based around ending the welfare plantation and increasing economic opportunity for people of color. Both the black and hispanic communities are already pretty conservative on the religious front, so you'd have a natural in with them there, and if you offered them something for their pocketbook you might get 30% of their vote. Do that with blacks and hispanics, and this election is a rout.
The one negative I see about Hailey is that I'd really like to see Tim Scott as the VP nominee, and you wouldn't want two from South Carolina in a close election because of the constitutional provision regarding electoral votes. I suppose she could replace Pence with somebody like Conde Rice, but that might be too much of a foreign policy emphasis (former Sec State plus former UN ambassador), so I could see sticking with Pence.

I would hate it if the Republicans got into quotas like the Democrats.

I'm not proposing it as a quota, I'm proposing it as a way to win an election.

How did Sarah Palin work out?

WTF does that have to do with 2020? For that matter, WTF does Sarah Palin have to do with Nikki Hailey?

That was McCain's quota pick. It didn't work.

Back to the original question. Riots have turned into a big plus for Trump. He's viewed as wanting them to end. Dems are viewed as promoting them. It could have been a negative to the incumbent, but the Dems have turned it into a positive for President Trump.

Still not sure how the virus impacts things.

(08-09-2020 04:19 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-30-2020 10:06 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-30-2020 07:38 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 07:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]I would hate it if the Republicans got into quotas like the Democrats.

I'm not proposing it as a quota, I'm proposing it as a way to win an election.

How did Sarah Palin work out?

WTF does that have to do with 2020? For that matter, WTF does Sarah Palin have to do with Nikki Hailey?

That was McCain's quota pick. It didn't work.

Back to the original question. Riots have turned into a big plus for Trump. He's viewed as wanting them to end. Dems are viewed as promoting them. It could have been a negative to the incumbent, but the Dems have turned it into a positive for President Trump.

Still not sure how the virus impacts things.

The most redeeming feature about the left is that they never know when to Shut Up since they don't have natural governors to tell them when others are offended, and they don't know when to stop so they always exceed the public's tolerance levels. This is why they are frequently called extremists. If they ever learned how not to overreach they would be even more dangerous.

(08-09-2020 04:32 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-09-2020 04:19 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-30-2020 10:06 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-30-2020 07:38 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-29-2020 07:30 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not proposing it as a quota, I'm proposing it as a way to win an election.

How did Sarah Palin work out?

WTF does that have to do with 2020? For that matter, WTF does Sarah Palin have to do with Nikki Hailey?

That was McCain's quota pick. It didn't work.

Back to the original question. Riots have turned into a big plus for Trump. He's viewed as wanting them to end. Dems are viewed as promoting them. It could have been a negative to the incumbent, but the Dems have turned it into a positive for President Trump.

Still not sure how the virus impacts things.

The most redeeming feature about the left is that they never know when to Shut Up since they don't have natural governors to tell them when others are offended, and they don't know when to stop so they always exceed the public's tolerance levels. This is why they are frequently called extremists. If they ever learned how not to overreach they would be even more dangerous.

That's because they tend to live in bubbles surrounded by people who think the same as them. Literally everyone they know is telling them that they're right.

Republicans have a good idea of what the other side ACTUALLY thinks because we hear it all the time from the media, Hollywood, and our neighbors who vote Democrat. But the people who run the Democratic party (and the media egging them on) are all clustered together in a few cities. Every major news organization and almost every Democratic leader of the past 15 years (Pelosi, Schumer, Harris, Clinton, Kaine, Kerry, Edwards, and Obama) all live in huge counties that voted over 75% for Clinton. Biden and Harry Reid are the only exceptions since 2000, and even they've spent most of the past few decades living in DC, which voted 93% for Clinton.


Even within those counties, Democrats are more highly clustered than Republicans.

I had a friend in San Diego who told me I was the first Republican he'd ever met. In San Diego! A county that Obama only won by 7 points! It's also funny because I've voted Libertarian in the last 2 Presidential elections, but that's close enough for him.