Using Sagarin ratings after year-end...last 6 years’ ratings (since the last round of realignment):
Conference Average StdDev Range
SEC West..... 84.2... 2.8. 87.0-81.5
BIG East...... 77.7... 1.8. 79.5-75.9
B12............ 77.2... 1.1. 78.4-76.1
ACC Atlantic. 77.2... 3.3. 80.5-73.8
PAC North.... 77.1... 1.0. 78.1-76.1
SEC East...... 76.6... 2.6. 79.2-73.9
PAC South... 75.4... 2.0. 77.4-73.4
BIG West..... 74.9... 1.6. 76.5-73.3
ACC Coastal. 74.4... 2.3. 76.7-72.2
A few observations:
1) The only P5 Division that is significantly different (in this case, better) on average is the SEC West. No other P5 division has ever been as good as the worst year’s average of the SEC West (worst ratings for SEC West = 82.19 in 2017; best ratings for any other P5 group was ACC Atlantic = 81.43 in 2016).
2) Statistically, Sagarin ratings suggest that there is no real difference in the average level of play of the BIG-East, B12, ACC-Atlantic, PAC-North and SEC-East. Any given year, average level of play may fluctuate...but over time, they are statistically indistinguishable.
3) ACC and SEC divisions have much more volatility in the level of play annually. The level of performance can change more in the SEC and ACC. Put differently, the level of play doesn’t change much in the BIG and B12.
(04-30-2020 02:29 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: [ -> ]Using Sagarin ratings after year-end...last 6 years’ ratings (since the last round of realignment):
Conference Average StdDev Range
SEC West..... 84.2... 2.8. 87.0-81.5
BIG East...... 77.7... 1.8. 79.5-75.9
B12............ 77.2... 1.1. 78.4-76.1
ACC Atlantic. 77.2... 3.3. 80.5-73.8
PAC North.... 77.1... 1.0. 78.1-76.1
SEC East...... 76.6... 2.6. 79.2-73.9
PAC South... 75.4... 2.0. 77.4-73.4
BIG West..... 74.9... 1.6. 76.5-73.3
ACC Coastal. 74.4... 2.3. 76.7-72.2
A few observations:
1) The only P5 Division that is significantly different (in this case, better) on average is the SEC West. No other P5 division has ever been as good as the worst year’s average of the SEC West (worst ratings for SEC West = 82.19 in 2017; best ratings for any other P5 group was ACC Atlantic = 81.43 in 2016).
2) Statistically, Sagarin ratings suggest that there is no real difference in the average level of play of the BIG-East, B12, ACC-Atlantic, PAC-North and SEC-East. Any given year, average level of play may fluctuate...but over time, they are statistically indistinguishable.
3) ACC and SEC divisions have much more volatility in the level of play annually. The level of performance can change more in the SEC and ACC. Put differently, the level of play doesn’t change much in the BIG and B12.
Taking the median of the entire SEC for that time gets you 80.7. No conference division comes close.
Big Ten median is 76.3 for the entire conference.
ACC entire conference is 75.8, which actually makes sense.
Pac12 median is 76.25 for the entire conference.
No wonder everyone wants to plunder the Big 12, but it doesn't really make much sense from the SEC's perspective, with regards to this data, IMO
Comparing conference divisions:
SEC: 84.2 vs. 76.6 = 7.6
B1G: 77.7 vs. 74.9 = 2.8
ACC: 77.2 vs. 74.4 = 2.8
Pac: 77.1 vs. 75.4 = 1.7
I don't follow Sagarin ratings that much and don't know what 1 point really means but it looks like based on Sagarin ratings the SEC divisions really are unbalanced compared to the other P5's. I don't have all the Sagarin ratings in front of me but I wonder what the ratings would be if you did Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee vs. Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt (or better yet, the CSNBBS favorite or at least Schmolik personal favorite of Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M).
(04-30-2020 03:42 PM)schmolik Wrote: [ -> ]Comparing conference divisions:
SEC: 84.2 vs. 76.6 = 7.6
B1G: 77.7 vs. 74.9 = 2.8
ACC: 77.2 vs. 74.4 = 2.8
Pac: 77.1 vs. 75.4 = 1.7
I don't follow Sagarin ratings that much and don't know what 1 point really means but it looks like based on Sagarin ratings the SEC divisions really are unbalanced compared to the other P5's. I don't have all the Sagarin ratings in front of me but I wonder what the ratings would be if you did Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee vs. Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt (or better yet, the CSNBBS favorite or at least Schmolik personal favorite of Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M).
For perspective, the average final Sagarin rating (last 6 years) for three SEC teams:
Auburn @ 86.2
Mizzu @ 75.3
Vandy @ 64.7
Straightening the geography of divisions by flipping Auburn with Mizzu would have reduced the competitive imbalance of divisions by about 40%...albeit the SEC West would still have had the highest average annual ratings.
I've compared Sagarin ratings over the past 12 or so years. One of the things I track is the trailing (most recent) 10 year averages for each team, conference and division. The Big XII has the second highest 10 year average at 77.9, a little better than the PAC at 77.0. The B1G is next at 75.5 while the ACC is 74.9, but trending up recently thanks largely to Clemson's emergence as a national power.
The SEC East has a 10 year average of 77.0 which is comparable to both the Big XII and PAC and better than either the B1G or ACC. The outlier is the SEC West, which has averaged 84.3 over that period.
Looking at individual schools, five have averaged 90 or better. Ohio State is at 92.0, Clemson 91.0, LSU 90.4 and Oklahoma 90.0. Then there's Alabama. The Tide averaged a staggering 99.6 over 10 years. With both Bama and LSU in the SEC West, it's easy to see where the disparity between the divisions stems from.