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Morehouse College cancels football for this fall.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...263839001/
(06-26-2020 09:49 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]So in light of Texas reimposing lockdown measures today (they closed some bars and instituted 50% capacity at resteraunts), thought i'd share some of the trends we're seeing.

First, there's a huge uptick in daily new cases. This time around it's less restricted to single states and more widespread. Many regions are reporting their highest daily confirmed cases yet.

Second, IMO this is largely a result of huge increases in testing availability. Our government was so laughably ill prepared for this onslaught that widespread testing has only recently become accessible. As such, the data I saw showed that many young people were getting tested who previously hadn't been.

Third, to support this conclusion, it's noteworthy that the mortality rate and positivisty rates are still declining (though the mortality rate might reach an inflection point soon). Positivisty rate can be interpreted in a few different ways, but so long as mortality rate is low we aren't completely f'd yet.

Finally, it's probably naive to attribute the increase to testing alone. Rather, we also have to consider the effect of virtually every economy reopening as well as the recent protests.

Across the country, many have seen the reports of CFB teams reporting high numbers of positive cases. Which can be expected, given how frequently they test those guys now. What will be really interesting this summer is watching how CFB teams handle those positive cases and continue workouts thereafter. If we go 3-4 months with cycles of players testing positive and workouts being canceled, it's hard to imagine they could hold a season this fall.

Nonetheless, Dr. Fauci recently testified that he's optomistic a vaccine will be developed by this winter/early spring. So perhaps there's an avenue to delay CFB until then.

If you look at the numbers, the mortality rate is down considerably from its peak for the week of 4/18. There were 16350 deaths in this week. For the week of 6/20 (this week) we are only showing 481 so far. The week is not up yet. I am a bit baffled about the small number of deaths relative to the large increase of infection. The information can be found here on the cdc site. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Yeah, I tend to believe it is the result of both young people having greater access to testing and young people being more willing to go out and not take precautions. So the infections are largely attributable to people who wouldn't be dying anyways

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(06-26-2020 04:14 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I tend to believe it is the result of both young people having greater access to testing and young people being more willing to go out and not take precautions. So the infections are largely attributable to people who wouldn't be dying anyways

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Does it not take the deaths a few weeks to catch up to the positive infection tests?. A better measure would be hospitalizations, and the amount of beds being occupied in intensive care. For selfish reasons, I want CFB to be played, The Cats are going to be dynamite, but I would rather they postponed it til Spring, rather than having any sort of truncated season.
I would think so but I'm also under the impression we'd see SOME spike by now. DeWine did say hospitalizations are up though so we probably will see them soon.

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If you look at the fifth to last chart here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...index.html It appears that hospitalizations are up approximately 10 per 100000.
A group of B12 ADs are really getting in to the weeds - necessary for all conferences.

Quote:Big 12 weighs options as college football ponders game cancellation, postponement procedures

A select group of Big 12 athletic directors have been directed with one of the most profound duties of the coronavirus-impacted season: playing God when it comes to deciding whether a game should go on as scheduled.

The subcommittee of five ADs -- from Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, TCU and West Virginia -- is in the early stages of setting thresholds for postponements, cancellations and even forfeits. Their recommendations will go through several filters as coaches, players, other ADs and the commissioner will have input.

At least on the Power Five level, all conferences will be compelled to make similar decisions. The task of coming to an agreement on what it would take to call off a game because of COVID-19 is not an easy one.

"The whole purpose of discussing this is you don't want to play with a dismantled team," West Virginia athletic director Shane Lyons said. "So what does that look like?"

In the early stages, the considerations are as follows:

Losing 25 percent of scholarship players: That's one threshold being considered. Using the 85-scholarship maximum, a loss of a quarter of those players equals 21. Few programs, if any, operate with right at the 85 max. Nevertheless a 25 percent reduction from that number would mean 64 scholarship players. That begs the question, how many players do coaches really need? Road travel rosters are typically capped at 60-70 as it is.

CBS Sports spoke to one former major-college coach who said the absolute fewest players a program needed to play was 53, basically the NFL roster max. That would include 44 on the two deep depth chart, a long-snapper, holder and some special teamers.

"We want student-athlete input on it," Lyons said. "What does it mean to the athlete? I bring up the quarterbacks. What if something happens with all your quarterbacks? What do you want to do, put in a former tight end who played quarterback? Is that we want the game to be?"

Cross training: If rosters are shortened, one consideration is players working out at multiple positions to make the lineup more flexible. That means a defensive lineman might have to prepare also as an offensive lineman, a wide receiver as a defensive back. No one is talking about single-platoon football.

TCU AD Jeremiah Donati stressed the preliminary nature of the study. "What constitutes a disqualified team?" he wondered. "Is it a percentage of guys in your overall number? Is it a percentage of scholarship guys? Is it the number of guys in a depth chart at one position?"

Testing: We've tackled the subject this week. There is no national standard for COVID-19 testing. Power Five schools are discussing a game-week standard their programs could adhere to. That alone would go a long way toward deciding whether a game is going to be played. The issue is not only player availability but timing. Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione wondered about key players testing positive the day before a game. "If a team has reached or passed the threshold where too many players are not available, that's what we're trying to work through" he said. "I wish there were easy ways to do this."

Gamesmanship: This is a tricky one. At one point can't a game be played? At one point does a coach not want a game to be played? "All three of your quarterbacks are sick. You have to play a walk-on freshman who shouldn't be playing," said Arizona's Randy Cohen, associate athletics director for medical services, who was playing out a scenario. "Are you going to pull the trigger [and play] or … the only reason you want to do that is because you've got a quarterback who is a freshman walk-on. That's gamesmanship, not safety."

Schedule: The college football schedule doesn't provide much wiggle room to make up games. One Big 12 AD said he's looking at calling nonconference opponents in his region on short notice if a game is canceled. Another said that a canceled nonconference game could be made up in a unique way: two Big 12 teams with open dates playing a nonconference game.

The Big 12 is among a couple of Power Five conferences that have considered pushing back their championship games. Lyons suggested the Big 12 Championship Game could be held as much as two weeks later on Dec. 19. That could provide time for league members to make up canceled or postponed games.

The CF Season Clock Is Ticking
(07-03-2020 08:32 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote: [ -> ]A group of B12 ADs are really getting in to the weeds - necessary for all conferences.

Quote:Big 12 weighs options as college football ponders game cancellation, postponement procedures

A select group of Big 12 athletic directors have been directed with one of the most profound duties of the coronavirus-impacted season: playing God when it comes to deciding whether a game should go on as scheduled.

The subcommittee of five ADs -- from Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, TCU and West Virginia -- is in the early stages of setting thresholds for postponements, cancellations and even forfeits. Their recommendations will go through several filters as coaches, players, other ADs and the commissioner will have input.

At least on the Power Five level, all conferences will be compelled to make similar decisions. The task of coming to an agreement on what it would take to call off a game because of COVID-19 is not an easy one.

"The whole purpose of discussing this is you don't want to play with a dismantled team," West Virginia athletic director Shane Lyons said. "So what does that look like?"

In the early stages, the considerations are as follows:

Losing 25 percent of scholarship players: That's one threshold being considered. Using the 85-scholarship maximum, a loss of a quarter of those players equals 21. Few programs, if any, operate with right at the 85 max. Nevertheless a 25 percent reduction from that number would mean 64 scholarship players. That begs the question, how many players do coaches really need? Road travel rosters are typically capped at 60-70 as it is.

CBS Sports spoke to one former major-college coach who said the absolute fewest players a program needed to play was 53, basically the NFL roster max. That would include 44 on the two deep depth chart, a long-snapper, holder and some special teamers.

"We want student-athlete input on it," Lyons said. "What does it mean to the athlete? I bring up the quarterbacks. What if something happens with all your quarterbacks? What do you want to do, put in a former tight end who played quarterback? Is that we want the game to be?"

Cross training: If rosters are shortened, one consideration is players working out at multiple positions to make the lineup more flexible. That means a defensive lineman might have to prepare also as an offensive lineman, a wide receiver as a defensive back. No one is talking about single-platoon football.

TCU AD Jeremiah Donati stressed the preliminary nature of the study. "What constitutes a disqualified team?" he wondered. "Is it a percentage of guys in your overall number? Is it a percentage of scholarship guys? Is it the number of guys in a depth chart at one position?"

Testing: We've tackled the subject this week. There is no national standard for COVID-19 testing. Power Five schools are discussing a game-week standard their programs could adhere to. That alone would go a long way toward deciding whether a game is going to be played. The issue is not only player availability but timing. Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione wondered about key players testing positive the day before a game. "If a team has reached or passed the threshold where too many players are not available, that's what we're trying to work through" he said. "I wish there were easy ways to do this."

Gamesmanship: This is a tricky one. At one point can't a game be played? At one point does a coach not want a game to be played? "All three of your quarterbacks are sick. You have to play a walk-on freshman who shouldn't be playing," said Arizona's Randy Cohen, associate athletics director for medical services, who was playing out a scenario. "Are you going to pull the trigger [and play] or … the only reason you want to do that is because you've got a quarterback who is a freshman walk-on. That's gamesmanship, not safety."

Schedule: The college football schedule doesn't provide much wiggle room to make up games. One Big 12 AD said he's looking at calling nonconference opponents in his region on short notice if a game is canceled. Another said that a canceled nonconference game could be made up in a unique way: two Big 12 teams with open dates playing a nonconference game.

The Big 12 is among a couple of Power Five conferences that have considered pushing back their championship games. Lyons suggested the Big 12 Championship Game could be held as much as two weeks later on Dec. 19. That could provide time for league members to make up canceled or postponed games.

The CF Season Clock Is Ticking

Great addition to this thread; thanks for sharing.

If there can be a bright-line test regarding forfeiture and/or game cancellation, I think that is a valid option. On the other hand, for example, if it's simply a case of Nebraska (B10) deciding they don't want to risk a loss to Cincinnati, pre-conference, the integrity of a plan such as this unravels fast. And pushing that example to 2021, does Nebraska then deny the return game @ Nippert since they didn't get a home date with UC in 2020? I'm sure none of these game contracts have a pandemic provision.

Stay tuned; it's going to get interesting this season.
Coaches question. If you suddenly lose 3 or 4 starting offensive linemen to Covid-19, do you cancel or risk getting your QB crippled for the remainder of the year?

I don't know the answer, but I suspect we will see variations on the question multiple times this year.

Not likely to be a normal season.
Just play the season as flag football. With 6 foot long flags.
(06-26-2020 11:32 AM)bearcat_df Wrote: [ -> ]Morehouse College cancels football for this fall.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...263839001/

That does it, if Morehouse is not playing I suspect others will follow. Maroon Tigers shutting it down!
You either go all out and play this normally, accepting the risks, or you can it. These "in-between" measures aren't going to be effective at preventing the spread of the virus, they will simply slow the spread.

Live life, or hide...it's up to you.
(06-26-2020 04:28 PM)rtaylor Wrote: [ -> ]Does it not take the deaths a few weeks to catch up to the positive infection tests?. A better measure would be hospitalizations, and the amount of beds being occupied in intensive care. For selfish reasons, I want CFB to be played, The Cats are going to be dynamite, but I would rather they postponed it til Spring, rather than having any sort of truncated season.

To your point, I would think it's concerning that positivity rates are going up once again along with hospitalizations [attachment=10347]

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(07-05-2020 09:06 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-26-2020 04:28 PM)rtaylor Wrote: [ -> ]Does it not take the deaths a few weeks to catch up to the positive infection tests?. A better measure would be hospitalizations, and the amount of beds being occupied in intensive care. For selfish reasons, I want CFB to be played, The Cats are going to be dynamite, but I would rather they postponed it til Spring, rather than having any sort of truncated season.

To your point, I would think it's concerning that positivity rates are going up once again along with hospitalizations

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Positivity rates=we test more people
hospital rates=everyone is tested at a hospital regardless of reason at hospital. If
you test positive, you are hospitalized due to Covid

New Death rates=Have plateaued since Middle June between 200-600 (Mid April
there were 2500 deaths). We have had over 25000 newly
diagnosed since June 16(19 days) yet no spike in deaths.
Positivity rate is different than test quantity. If you're testing more, and positivity rate is increasing, that's typically a bad sign. However, it can also be a sign that you're testing more accurately. I think the first is more likely.

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Also, not sure what you mean by testing positive and being hospitalized. I fear that the recent uptick in hospitalization may precede a new uptick in mortality here soon.

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(07-05-2020 11:45 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]Also, not sure what you mean by testing positive and being hospitalized. I fear that the recent uptick in hospitalization may precede a new uptick in mortality here soon.

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Lets so you go to the hospital for liposuction and you test positive for Covid, you are hospitalized for Covid.
(07-05-2020 11:43 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]Positivity rate is different than test quantity. If you're testing more, and positivity rate is increasing, that's typically a bad sign. However, it can also be a sign that you're testing more accurately. I think the first is more likely.

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Yea, the rate is around five percent and the mortality rate will probably end up .25 percent.
No season likely
(07-05-2020 12:10 PM)rosewater Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-05-2020 11:45 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]Also, not sure what you mean by testing positive and being hospitalized. I fear that the recent uptick in hospitalization may precede a new uptick in mortality here soon.

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Lets so you go to the hospital for liposuction and you test positive for Covid, you are hospitalized for Covid.

Who goes to a hospital for liposuction? People would take corona truthers more seriously if everything they said wasn't absolutely moronic.
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