CSNbbs

(04-06-2020 04:32 AM)ParentofJMUMRDs Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe they would schedule the game for the night instead of 11:00 AM!!

Brian

Yes!

(04-06-2020 04:32 AM)ParentofJMUMRDs Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe they would schedule the game for the night instead of 11:00 AM!!

Brian

That would be great!

(04-06-2020 12:39 AM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2020 09:30 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote: [ -> ]I'll go to Frisco in July 2021

Hotter than 27 mofos down here in July.

I would think if it was delayed, the max would be maybe 4 months. The normal early Sept-early Jan would become early Jan-early May. Or even a compressed season ending in late April. This is assuming the NFL also delayed at least 3 months. Everything would have to be pushed back a couple months and compressed.
-All star games changed from Jan to May
-Combine changed from late Feb/early March to late May or early June.
-Draft changed from late April to mid-late June.

Way OT, but since it is COVID-related, I thought this would be the thread to put it in.

One of the greatest songwriters of my generation passed today of COVID-19. John Prine influenced famous singer-songwriters from Jimmy Buffett to Jerry Jeff Walker. He was one of my favorites when I was in college, and he used to hang out in the 'burg a good bit.

John's wife Fiona said that she had tested positive for the COVID-19 virus and had been quarantined in her home apart from John. He was hospitalized on March 26 after suddenly experiencing symptoms. He was intubated (put on a ventilator) on the evening of March 28 in critical condition. On March 30, Fiona tweeted that she had recovered, and that John was in stable condition but not improving. On April 3, she announced that he was in his eighth day in ICU and that he was still on a ventilator and needed quite a bit of help with his breathing. He had pneumonia in both lungs and had also developed some peripheral issues that were being treated with medications including antibiotics. John Prine died on April 7, 2020.

One of my favorite Prine songs, ironically, about dying....

Dr Fauci expecting schools may be able to open in fall:

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/dr-fauci...shape.html

(04-07-2020 11:36 PM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]Way OT, but since it is COVID-related, I thought this would be the thread to put it in.

One of the greatest songwriters of my generation passed today of COVID-19. John Prine influenced famous singer-songwriters from Jimmy Buffett to Jerry Jeff Walker. He was one of my favorites when I was in college, and he used to hang out in the 'burg a good bit.

John's wife Fiona said that she had tested positive for the COVID-19 virus and had been quarantined in her home apart from John. He was hospitalized on March 26 after suddenly experiencing symptoms. He was intubated (put on a ventilator) on the evening of March 28 in critical condition. On March 30, Fiona tweeted that she had recovered, and that John was in stable condition but not improving. On April 3, she announced that he was in his eighth day in ICU and that he was still on a ventilator and needed quite a bit of help with his breathing. He had pneumonia in both lungs and had also developed some peripheral issues that were being treated with medications including antibiotics. John Prine died on April 7, 2020.

One of my favorite Prine songs, ironically, about dying....

One of the greats. Saw him multiple times in Wilson Hall back in the day. Will play many tunes today in honor. RIP Mr. Prine.

(04-08-2020 07:39 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]Dr Fauci expecting schools may be able to open in fall:

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/dr-fauci...shape.html

IHME (U Washington model) keeps revising down. Now has peak hospitalization in 3 days/peak deaths in 4 days, total deaths now at 60K+, less than 10 a day by early June, 0 per day by late June..
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

(04-08-2020 07:39 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]Dr Fauci expecting schools may be able to open in fall:

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/dr-fauci...shape.html

I wish the experts regardless if it's Dr. Fauci, Dr. Oz, or Dr. Doolittle would just stop the speculation and just say "we don't know anything for certain at this point, there's a 50% chance the kids will go back to school in fall". I tune these people out when I hear; "I think", "my opinion", "I would like to see".

So far the most accurate projections haven't been coming from the talking heads "Medical TV Experts" they are coming from the math people, those that use real data along with probability & statistics. Those people aren't making projections beyond a few weeks. "I think" it's going to be another two or three weeks before we know enough to start making sound predictions.

(04-08-2020 11:46 AM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-08-2020 07:39 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]Dr Fauci expecting schools may be able to open in fall:

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/dr-fauci...shape.html

IHME (U Washington model) keeps revising down. Now has peak hospitalization in 3 days/peak deaths in 4 days, total deaths now at 60K+, less than 10 a day by early June, 0 per day by late June..
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I'm not seeing the number of people tested as it relates to the number of people infected, previously infected and not infected. The more we test, the more data we have to work with.

(04-09-2020 10:59 AM)RamDawg Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-08-2020 11:46 AM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-08-2020 07:39 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]Dr Fauci expecting schools may be able to open in fall:

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/dr-fauci...shape.html

IHME (U Washington model) keeps revising down. Now has peak hospitalization in 3 days/peak deaths in 4 days, total deaths now at 60K+, less than 10 a day by early June, 0 per day by late June..
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I'm not seeing the number of people tested as it relates to the number of people infected, previously infected and not infected. The more we test, the more data we have to work with.

2.3 million have been tested in the US. There are 450,000 cases. Here is a real-time running total, worldwide. You can also get data down to the county level at this link.... COVID stats

The numbers simply do not make sense, nor do they justify the hysteria. My daughter is an RN in the operating room at RMH, which I believe is now called Sentara. For a couple of weeks she has said that she doesn't have much to do, sitting around a lot at the hospital, spending a good deal of her time on-call as they have canceled all elective surgeries, awaiting the flood of COVID patients everyone says is coming. There have been 15 cases in Rockingham, a county of 134,000 people, and ZERO deaths.

I'm not saying go out and french kiss everyone you see on the street because COVID is nothing. I am saying the numbers, which are suspect, in my opinion, do not justify the hysteria, and there appears to be some cooking of the books to arrive at those numbers.... cooking the COVID books

Government guidance: "In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as“probable” or “presumed.”

Translation: "If you have any reason to suspect that a patient died of COVID-19, that's good enough for government work. No need to test the patient. Just list the cause of death as COVID-19."

Purple says the hysteria is not justified, yet today the city puts out a press release that cases have spiked and incidents have doubled in the last week. Harrisonburg's turn is coming Purple.

(04-09-2020 02:55 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote: [ -> ]Purple says the hysteria is not justified, yet today the city puts out a press release that cases have spiked and incidents have doubled in the last week. Harrisonburg's turn is coming Purple.

Yep - they are saying it would of been over a million deaths in the US alone if we had not made the massive changes made in the last month.


I guess the whole world is just idiots.

Well this debate over what was the right thing to do will be settled when this is all over. Sweden continues to not have locked down the country though they have put certain rules in place around large gatherings and closed certain schools such as high schools and college, but have kept businesses open with some minor restrictions like table seating only and no sitting at bars. In fact grade schools have remained open. We will see very clearly whether their experiment with building herd immunity works. In March there economic activity was down 4% vs. the much larger number here. So far the infection rate and death numbers are on par with countries that have shut down and are much better than some areas such as Italy and Spain.

Seems a little silly to turn this thread in to debate over whether this is overblown, underblown, some anti-Trump conspiracy, some pro-Trump conspiracy, basically just the flu, the end of the world, or anything in between like the thread that got shut down rather than to stick to discussion around whether or not fall and winter 2020 sports will go on.

(04-09-2020 03:24 PM)Dukester Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-09-2020 02:55 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote: [ -> ]Purple says the hysteria is not justified, yet today the city puts out a press release that cases have spiked and incidents have doubled in the last week. Harrisonburg's turn is coming Purple.

Yep - they are saying it would of been over a million deaths in the US alone if we had not made the massive changes made in the last month.


I guess the whole world is just idiots.

Who are "they," Dukester? Provide factual evidence, cite your references, like I did. Don't be afraid. Provide evidence to back your position. For every self-proclaimed Nostradamus you can cite, I can cite ten experts to refute their guessing. The fact is there is no way of knowing what "would of" happened had we done anything differently. People are still going to the grocery store and other places. Why? If this monster is off the charts, as you suggest, why is anyone allowed to leave their house? Why aren't our groceries, meds, etc, being delivered onto our front porches by guys in hazmat suits? We can do that. Why didn't we?

I refuse to discuss this further. It will only escalate (deja vu).

(04-09-2020 04:13 PM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-09-2020 03:24 PM)Dukester Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-09-2020 02:55 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote: [ -> ]Purple says the hysteria is not justified, yet today the city puts out a press release that cases have spiked and incidents have doubled in the last week. Harrisonburg's turn is coming Purple.

Yep - they are saying it would of been over a million deaths in the US alone if we had not made the massive changes made in the last month.


I guess the whole world is just idiots.

Who are "they," Dukester? Provide factual evidence, cite your references, like I did. Don't be afraid. Provide evidence to back your position. For every self-proclaimed Nostradamus you can cite, I can cite ten experts to refute their guessing. The fact is there is no way of knowing what "would of" happened had we done anything differently. People are still going to the grocery store and other places. Why? If this monster is off the charts, as you suggest, why is anyone allowed to leave their house? Why aren't our groceries, meds, etc, being delivered onto our front porches by guys in hazmat suits? We can do that. If we had done that a few weeks ago, we would be at zero cases right now. Why didn't we do that?

I refuse to discuss this further. It will only escalate (deja vu).

Obviously you can say prove it, and you are correct you can't prove what has not happened, or has been prevented. When Trump says millions would of been lost if we acted cannot be proved.

It is amazing every major country has taken similar steps and over reacted for this flu. Why do you think they are taking these steps? Just a big mistake by just about every country in the world? Is it possible that all these countries have more info than you? Perhaps they are clueless, but I think this might be a different situation than we have ever faced.

It's not escalated for me, I just don't understand the reasoning that everyone running major countries is wrong.

Full honestly - do I think I could of made better decisions on running JMU men's basketball that has occurred the last 20 years? Hell yes.

Do I think I could make a better decision than just about every world leader on this pandemic? I don't, but perhaps it's low self esteem.

This sucks and I’m over it. That is all.

(04-09-2020 03:46 PM)jmu98 Wrote: [ -> ]Well this debate over what was the right thing to do will be settled when this is all over. Sweden continues to not have locked down the country though they have put certain rules in place around large gatherings and closed certain schools such as high schools and college, but have kept businesses open with some minor restrictions like table seating only and no sitting at bars. In fact grade schools have remained open. We will see very clearly whether their experiment with building herd immunity works. In March there economic activity was down 4% vs. the much larger number here. So far the infection rate and death numbers are on par with countries that have shut down and are much better than some areas such as Italy and Spain.

Yes, it is a good experiment to watch. Though, it isn't looking real good right now. From late this afternoon... https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporte...3a91a03dfe

A couple of interesting snippets from the article...

*Experts say the Swedish government approach may be a contributing factor in why Sweden has experienced high death rates compared to other countries, with nearly 8% of Swedes infected with coronavirus dying from it, compared to less than 2% and 4% for neighbors Norway and Denmark, respectively.

*According to Swedish media reports, the government is looking to the Swedish parliament to give it the power to impose emergency measures like shutting businesses and public transport, which for the most part remain open, CBC reported.

Also, from earlier today... https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

Again, will be interesting to see how this goes in Sweden.

(04-09-2020 09:35 PM)Wear Purple Wrote: [ -> ]*According to Swedish media reports, the government is looking to the Swedish parliament to give it the power to impose emergency measures like shutting businesses and public transport, which for the most part remain open, CBC reported.

How each country responds to COVID-19 has to be taken within the context of its own government's power to do something about it. It seems that, based on some light reading from the Library of Congress, Sweden's government generally lacks the power to isolate or quarantine people. A quote from the website:

Quote:Even before Enhorn, in the legislative history of the 2003 Communicable Diseases Act the Swedish government wrote that the forced isolation of an HIV-positive person is less likely to conform with human rights because transmission of the disease requires intimate contact. It remains unclear whether forced isolation due to a more contagious disease that spreads “by casual contact”[157] is consistent with human rights as guaranteed by the European Convention on Human Rights.

The Enhorn case refers to a situation where the Swedish government tried to isolate a person who was HIV-positive and the court ruled that because HIV could only be transmitted via "intimate contact" that the isolation was not legal. The European Union Court of Human Rights ruled on the issue. I understand the quoted section to say that it's not understood whether or not the national government of Sweden even has the power to isolate/quarantine people, which may color their response.

This ruling of the European Union Court of Human Rights is in stark contrast with US case law surrounding isolation and quarantines. The federal government cites the Commerce Clause of the Constitution for it's power to isolate/quarantine people and is supported by at least one federal court case. Lawfare Blog has a pretty good primer on this topic.

The Lawfare Blog article cites the National Conference of State Legislatures as a resource for state powers. Generally, it's understood that states have certain "police powers" to "establish and enforce laws protecting the welfare, safety, and health of the public." Virginia's section is quoted below:

Quote:
Va. Code § 32.1-42 et. seq.

Authority. The Board of Health may promulgate regulations and orders to meet any emergency or to prevent a potential emergency caused by a disease dangerous to public health or any communicable disease of public health threat involved in an order of quarantine or isolation pursuant to § 32.1-48.05 et seq. The state health commissioner shall have the authority to require quarantine, isolation, immunization, decontamination or treatment of any individual or group of individuals when he determines any such measure to be necessary to control the spread of any disease of public health importance and the authority to issue orders of isolation.

To get back to whether or not college and pro sports will happen in the fall, I think it depends on the states and localities. Based on available data, different states will peak at different times and will still be dealing with the issue around the time that summer workouts would be happening.

Remember, the "peak" refers to a number of different things in a number of different places. For example, the University of Washington projection that people cite very often refers to the United States as a whole, not individual states, which can be akin to countries on their own. The peak in US hospital resources and deaths per day is listed as April 12-13. The number of total deaths isn't expected to level off until early- to mid-May. If you look at Virginia in particular, the hospital resources and deaths per day don't peak until April 20. Total deaths don't level off until mid-May. Every state and every locality will be different.

Let's say that Maryland is still having problems with COVID-19 or that another outbreak happens in the late-summer and a stay-at-home order (or some similar order) either still exists or is reissued. Do B1G schools de-schedule Maryland? Are Maryland sports teams individually assessed for their COVID-19 status and moved to locations outside the state to free them up to travel? Would other states allow those students to travel to their campus to compete? Etc.

Right now, I think there are too many unknowns to make a call. What I think is important, though, is for everyone to understand is that this situation is complicated, ever-evolving, and unlikely to be "over." In a recent statement on Face the Nation, Dr. Fauci said that it's likely that COVID-19 will become a seasonal illness because it won't be contained on a global scale. It's been stated many times that it's not necessarily the unique "deadliness" of the disease or its unique communicability that makes it dangerous, it's everything that we don't know about it.

I'm hoping that our continued study and understanding of the virus allows us to return to "normal," but I also understand that the science behind these things takes time. Is the amount of time that it takes to understand the disease and adequately assess the risk of it enough to continue with fall sports? Right now, I'm not sure; but I hope that we can be sooner rather than later.

(04-09-2020 11:38 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-09-2020 09:35 PM)Wear Purple Wrote: [ -> ]*According to Swedish media reports, the government is looking to the Swedish parliament to give it the power to impose emergency measures like shutting businesses and public transport, which for the most part remain open, CBC reported.

How each country responds to COVID-19 has to be taken within the context of its own government's power to do something about it. It seems that, based on some light reading from the Library of Congress, Sweden's government generally lacks the power to isolate or quarantine people. A quote from the website:

Quote:Even before Enhorn, in the legislative history of the 2003 Communicable Diseases Act the Swedish government wrote that the forced isolation of an HIV-positive person is less likely to conform with human rights because transmission of the disease requires intimate contact. It remains unclear whether forced isolation due to a more contagious disease that spreads “by casual contact”[157] is consistent with human rights as guaranteed by the European Convention on Human Rights.

The Enhorn case refers to a situation where the Swedish government tried to isolate a person who was HIV-positive and the court ruled that because HIV could only be transmitted via "intimate contact" that the isolation was not legal. The European Union Court of Human Rights ruled on the issue. I understand the quoted section to say that it's not understood whether or not the national government of Sweden even has the power to isolate/quarantine people, which may color their response.

This ruling of the European Union Court of Human Rights is in stark contrast with US case law surrounding isolation and quarantines. The federal government cites the Commerce Clause of the Constitution for it's power to isolate/quarantine people and is supported by at least one federal court case. Lawfare Blog has a pretty good primer on this topic.

The Lawfare Blog article cites the National Conference of State Legislatures as a resource for state powers. Generally, it's understood that states have certain "police powers" to "establish and enforce laws protecting the welfare, safety, and health of the public." Virginia's section is quoted below:

Quote:
Va. Code § 32.1-42 et. seq.

Authority. The Board of Health may promulgate regulations and orders to meet any emergency or to prevent a potential emergency caused by a disease dangerous to public health or any communicable disease of public health threat involved in an order of quarantine or isolation pursuant to § 32.1-48.05 et seq. The state health commissioner shall have the authority to require quarantine, isolation, immunization, decontamination or treatment of any individual or group of individuals when he determines any such measure to be necessary to control the spread of any disease of public health importance and the authority to issue orders of isolation.

To get back to whether or not college and pro sports will happen in the fall, I think it depends on the states and localities. Based on available data, different states will peak at different times and will still be dealing with the issue around the time that summer workouts would be happening.

Remember, the "peak" refers to a number of different things in a number of different places. For example, the University of Washington projection that people cite very often refers to the United States as a whole, not individual states, which can be akin to countries on their own. The peak in US hospital resources and deaths per day is listed as April 12-13. The number of total deaths isn't expected to level off until early- to mid-May. If you look at Virginia in particular, the hospital resources and deaths per day don't peak until April 20. Total deaths don't level off until mid-May. Every state and every locality will be different.

Let's say that Maryland is still having problems with COVID-19 or that another outbreak happens in the late-summer and a stay-at-home order (or some similar order) either still exists or is reissued. Do B1G schools de-schedule Maryland? Are Maryland sports teams individually assessed for their COVID-19 status and moved to locations outside the state to free them up to travel? Would other states allow those students to travel to their campus to compete? Etc.

Right now, I think there are too many unknowns to make a call. What I think is important, though, is for everyone to understand is that this situation is complicated, ever-evolving, and unlikely to be "over." In a recent statement on Face the Nation, Dr. Fauci said that it's likely that COVID-19 will become a seasonal illness because it won't be contained on a global scale. It's been stated many times that it's not necessarily the unique "deadliness" of the disease or its unique communicability that makes it dangerous, it's everything that we don't know about it.

I'm hoping that our continued study and understanding of the virus allows us to return to "normal," but I also understand that the science behind these things takes time. Is the amount of time that it takes to understand the disease and adequately assess the risk of it enough to continue with fall sports? Right now, I'm not sure; but I hope that we can be sooner rather than later.

Excellent and informative post. Long, so perhaps many won’t read it, but it was helpful. I share your outlook.