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Full Version: Will pro and college sports be cancelled this Fall?
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(03-30-2020 01:42 PM)Wear Purple Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 01:26 PM)doubleduke2016 Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 12:55 PM)boozeNammo Wrote: [ -> ]In speaking with a couple of MDs from the University of Washington system, they have already recommended a total cancellation of sports (including intramurals) through next December. They don't even know if students will be back on campus this fall. Even though that's just a data point for decision makers, it does give you some insight into what some of the medical professionals are thinking. With a potential peak of this thing in June, I'm inclined to think they use an overabundance of caution and go ahead and cancel fall intercollegiate activities. All activities, not just sports.

I would be a little surprised if K-12 is back in the Fall. I guess we shall see in the next few weeks how well they can do online. The entire idea of "flatten the curve" is to take something that is on pace to spike sharply and have it peak over a much longer time. If we do flatten the curve correctly then we are talking about a very long social distance campaign, which I think is where we are headed and what is needed. I am expecting that schools, churches, movie theaters, amusement parks, are closed at least through the summer. Right now we are just avoiding a major peak until we can get a vaccine. Once a vaccine is found we can start getting back to normal but this is not a storm this is an ice age. It takes a lot longer to recover from an age then from a single event like a storm.

I agree with you both. Also, there are many trickle down events that will be affected most likely (and already are) such as recruiting, on-campus visits not happening, likely high school football cancelation, and so on.

Btw, just a heads up, the NCAA is currently in session voting on the eligibility forgiveness resolutions for spring sports athletes as I type this. We should know by end of day whether spring sports athletes will be given another year, only seniors get an extra year, no additional years given, or whatever.

This could set a precedent for what might happen next fall/winter as well if cancelations in those sports happen like now.

(Wimbledon has been canceled, FWIW)

The way the rule reads is that a student/athlete has 5 years to compete four years. The way I see it, if in a season there's no competition at all, then there's no way to count that as year. They'd have to be some real pricks to no allow four years of getting on the field, court, track, or in the water (pick your sport).
(03-30-2020 10:25 AM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]Actually, when you said "winter," I thought you meant "winter."

That's rich.

Purple Wrote: [ -> ]If I were to say, "proud to help you with your reading comprehension difficulty," would you get it even though I left the "I am" off of the front of the sentence?

Same thing. I left "I will sell the ranch for" off the front of the sentence, figuring that a bunch of college graduates would get, which I think is true of 95% of those who read it.

I am always happy to help you with your reading comprehension difficulties. Note how I spelled out every single word for you.

You're welcome.

Someone takes your words at face value, you act like that's completely unreasonable. Oh but now it's cool for you to take someone else's words at face value. Cool, bro.
I predict this thread will be shut down by Wednesday

It may be wishful thinking on my part but I do not think fall sports will be canceled. I have faith that more testing and dependable treatments will become available as April moves on. And I do think we have been doing a pretty good job of distancing (at least from what I see in Richmond) that will help with better results over the next month.

We have to continue to be careful and protect the most vulnerable while getting back to work as we can. Otherwise we will have a bunch of Hooverville’s which will add to the problem.
(03-30-2020 02:39 PM)Dukesfan1971 Wrote: [ -> ]I predict this thread will be shut down by Wednesday

It may be wishful thinking on my part but I do not think fall sports will be canceled. I have faith that more testing and dependable treatments will become available as April moves on. And I do think we have been doing a pretty good job of distancing (at least from what I see in Richmond) that will help with better results over the next month.

We have to continue to be careful and protect the most vulnerable while getting back to work as we can. Otherwise we will have a bunch of Hooverville’s which will add to the problem.

agreed.

fall is a long way off. too early to speculate on that right now, but you know every pharmaceutical and medical and biotech company and every university in the world that is capable has every last resource on this. And they have LOTS of resources. the big corps especially. you know they all want to be the one that develops the "cure". Big $$$$$$ involved. MASSIVE.

there has already been numerous reports of promising progress with drugs being developed. it's just a matter of time before a vaccine, or something, becomes widely available to help really slow down the spread. that could come in months. hopefully.

if it's not here by fall, worrying about sports will be the last thing on anyone's mind.
I do think we are in a heightened state right now where we don't have the facts and it too early to understand where we will be at in a few weeks, never mind a few months. With Abbott getting its rapid test approved by the FDA today and immediately able to produce 50,000 a day we should see the amount of testing go up drastically over the next few weeks which should allow us to really understand where we are at as far as peak goes. Today the numbers being given by states are likely a week old and the actual numbers will actually peak before the testing numbers do. The key in the short term in my mind is getting an antibody test kit which they are making good progress in doing. If there can be a break through there I think we can get back to normal quickly as we will know who has immunity and who doesn't. The next important area is a vaccine which J&J now says may be ready by January.
I think some people are really projecting. The governor has issued a "stay home" order effective through June 10. Why not just hold your horses? K-12 not starting in the fall? Maybe after Labor Day, the way it *should*, instead of the middle of August.
(03-30-2020 11:21 AM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 10:32 AM)jmu98 Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 09:26 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 08:08 AM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 07:11 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote: [ -> ]There is no concrete evidence that says how Covid-19 will slow in the winter. Part of the reason the flu and other such viruses tend to subside in the summer is people are outside and not in close contact with each other like most are when they are stuck inside all winter. It's not so much the heat that stops the virus as well, UV light and humidity play a bigger factor but the virus is still spreading in the southern hemisphere at the moment where it's summer for them currently.

I didn't say Covid-19 is going to slow in the winter. I said it is going to slow in the summer. And, you're right, I used the wrong word, "heat." It isn't the heat that slows the virus. It is the fact that the heat draws people outside, away from communicable indoor areas where viruses thrive. My point is that models do show a slow down in warmer months, when hopefully, our experts have had enough time to get on top of this and we can all shake hands again.

I just spoke to a business associate in Hubei Province, ground zero for Covid-19 (about the size of Washington state) and she reports that things there are back to normal, businesses, malls, and schools reopened and operating normally.

Sorry brainfart saying winter but i guess you couldnt figure that out based on the rest of my statement talking about the warmer months. What models are you looking at that show the coorelation between Covid 19 and a slow in summer? Like i said, the cases are still rising in the southern hemisphere currently. Look at brazil, went from 2 cases at the start of the month to well over 4000 now and show no signs of slowing

Brazil is a perfect example of a place where people live and work on top of each other and as noted above it is not necessarily the heat, but the distance and the ability to be spaced out during warmer weather which does not happen in most places in Brazil.

As far as sports in the fall question I would put it at 75/25 that there are fall sports. In my opinion if we are not in a place to do so we are in trouble as it means we have failed to find a way over the next couple of months to start re-opening things slowly and get the economy going again. A lot of that hinges on whether we can get enough of these rapid tests available to test a large portion of population for the disease, whether we can find an antiviral combo that works to treat quickly, and also an antibody test that shows immunity. If we can make progress on these things over the next month I think we will be ok.

Lastly, people are willing to stay home for some period of time, but if this last much longer than the end of April there are going to major issues with people just not being able to isolate for any longer. It is critical in my mind for the health of the economy and the mental health of people to have the country open in at least some form by mid May.

I agree with all of that except I don't think Brazil is a good model to compare the US to because we are so different in terms of medical response and climate. Most of Brazil has one season - HOT! If Covid-19 is still on the upswing in Brazil now, it would be much worse if it was winter there.

You said most of Brazil only has one season but then go on to talk about how it would be worse in the winter? In your previous post you stated that heat kills the virus so why is Brazil's hot climate not a good comparison? Shouldn't Brazil be doing great according to your logic? Or what about stateside with both Florida and Louisiana being in the top 10 for number of cases?
(03-30-2020 03:05 PM)jmu98 Wrote: [ -> ]I do think we are in a heightened state right now where we don't have the facts and it too early to understand where we will be at in a few weeks, never mind a few months. With Abbott getting its rapid test approved by the FDA today and immediately able to produce 50,000 a day we should see the amount of testing go up drastically over the next few weeks which should allow us to really understand where we are at as far as peak goes. Today the numbers being given by states are likely a week old and the actual numbers will actually peak before the testing numbers do. The key in the short term in my mind is getting an antibody test kit which they are making good progress in doing. If there can be a break through there I think we can get back to normal quickly as we will know who has immunity and who doesn't. The next important area is a vaccine which J&J now says may be ready by January.

Admiral Giroir (FDA head) said during yesterday evenings press conference that as of Saturday, US had performed over 894k tests (those #s are well above the #s from Covidtracking.com). So 2 more days probably are well over 1 million.

I believe the FDA approval of Abbot's test was last week, as articles from Fri said was approved. Portable, 5-minute point of care. test. Beginning this week. Like you said, 50k a day.

Quote: Last week, the FDA approved another coronavirus test from Abbott, the m2000 RealTime SARS CoV-2 EUA test, which is used for large batch testing at university and community hospitals. Between the two platforms, Abbott expects to produce about 5 million tests per month.

Other companies have also developed point of care tests
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/heal...932766001/

Promising info on the therapeutics front with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (Z- Pak)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-update-o...1585509827
Nobody wants sports back more than I do, but I've got some bad news: Sports are done for the year. Hear me out.....

I can't see a scenario where we have most sports (sure, tennis maybe) until there's a vaccine widely available. Unless the majority of the population is vaccinated, any time we stop social distancing there's a chance this thing starts to infect/kill. I mean, how do you have two 90 person football teams + coaches + staff participate in a full-contact sport unless everyone involved is vaccinated?

There's a chance a miracle happens and this thing just dies off, mutates where it's no longer as dangerous, or some other unexpected outcome. But I wouldn't bet on any of these scenarios.

About the vaccine: As of the writing of this comment there are like 26 different potential vaccines in the works all around the world. But the trials are going to take some time.....normally a couple of years. In a VERY compressed time frame (which increases risk) it could be like 6-10 months until we learn that it's safe enough for the entire world population take. You definitely don't want to give a vaccine to millions of people, only to find out later that it also kills lots of people. Once you get through the initlal phases of the trials you can start manufacturing the vaccine in mass quantity with the hope that the final trials go well and you can start distributing as soon as you get the green light.

All of this takes time. And that time is going to overlap the upcoming seasons, causing their cancellations.

I hope I'm wrong.
Noticed it was a "Stay at home" order for VA, not a "Shelter in Place" as in other states. The difference?
(03-30-2020 07:08 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]Noticed it was a "Stay at home" order for VA, not a "Shelter in Place" as in other states. The difference?

"Stay at home" means "don't leave your house." "Shelter in place" means "stay where you are."

I spent three days in a Walmart $hitter last week because of that.

Just kidding! It was only two days.02-13-banana
Ok that's funny
(03-30-2020 07:08 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]Noticed it was a "Stay at home" order for VA, not a "Shelter in Place" as in other states. The difference?

Purple's right.

Today's executive order expands previous executive orders slightly, closing beaches to everything except for fishing and exercise; limiting stays at privately owned campgrounds to greater than 14 days; and limits public and private gatherings to less than 10 people. You can still leave your house for "essential business," although he personally asserted that you should limit your trips to public places by going to the grocery store for bigger trips rather than one or two items. The government can charge you with a misdemeanor for gathering in groups larger than 10, but I think they're hesitant to enforce this too seriously.

The vocabulary around this is confusing, though, with lockdowns, stay at home, shelter in place, etc. depending on what state you live in or what news report you read.
(03-30-2020 08:38 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 07:08 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]Noticed it was a "Stay at home" order for VA, not a "Shelter in Place" as in other states. The difference?

Purple's right.

Today's executive order expands previous executive orders slightly, closing beaches to everything except for fishing and exercise; limiting stays at privately owned campgrounds to greater than 14 days; and limits public and private gatherings to less than 10 people. You can still leave your house for "essential business," although he personally asserted that you should limit your trips to public places by going to the grocery store for bigger trips rather than one or two items. The government can charge you with a misdemeanor for gathering in groups larger than 10, but I think they're hesitant to enforce this too seriously.

The vocabulary around this is confusing, though, with lockdowns, stay at home, shelter in place, etc. depending on what state you live in or what news report you read.

Maryland just made a big show of doing so, though it was an egregious case. I have also heard reports of police chasing off or rounding up some people in closed playground type parks in NoVa area. I don't think they will ignore it when its clear there is a significant gathering.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...088364002/
(03-30-2020 08:41 PM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]Maryland just made a big show of doing so, though it was an egregious case. I have also heard reports of police chasing off or rounding up some people in closed playground type parks in NoVa area. I don't think they will ignore it when its clear there is a significant gathering.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...088364002/

I meant hesitant in the sense that they'd probably give you a warning before they pressed charges; which it sounds like they did in that story. You even saw Governor Northam react hesitantly when questioned about charging people with misdemeanors during the press conference today. Not surprised other states are taking it more seriously, Virginia's "stay at home order" was pretty broadly worded.
(03-30-2020 08:56 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 08:41 PM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]Maryland just made a big show of doing so, though it was an egregious case. I have also heard reports of police chasing off or rounding up some people in closed playground type parks in NoVa area. I don't think they will ignore it when its clear there is a significant gathering.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...088364002/

I meant hesitant in the sense that they'd probably give you a warning before they pressed charges; which it sounds like they did in that story. You even saw Governor Northam react hesitantly when questioned about charging people with misdemeanors during the press conference today. Not surprised other states are taking it more seriously, Virginia's "stay at home order" was pretty broadly worded.

Doubt they are going to go around banging on random doors, but folks throwing big kegger parties might want to think twice. They are primarily looking for organized social gatherings I believe. NYC has also filed some charges against groups that were partying.
(03-30-2020 08:38 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-30-2020 07:08 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]Noticed it was a "Stay at home" order for VA, not a "Shelter in Place" as in other states. The difference?

Purple's right.

Today's executive order expands previous executive orders slightly, closing beaches to everything except for fishing and exercise; limiting stays at privately owned campgrounds to greater than 14 days; and limits public and private gatherings to less than 10 people. You can still leave your house for "essential business," although he personally asserted that you should limit your trips to public places by going to the grocery store for bigger trips rather than one or two items. The government can charge you with a misdemeanor for gathering in groups larger than 10, but I think they're hesitant to enforce this too seriously.

The vocabulary around this is confusing, though, with lockdowns, stay at home, shelter in place, etc. depending on what state you live in or what news report you read.
Gonna see a lot of fishing rods in the water...

Looking at this one website I see virtually every state on the east coast sans GA has closed their state forest & state park facilities & campgrounds, or delayed openings until sometime in April or May (except for VA now until after 6/10). Most of the lands are still open for hiking & fishing..Same with the Nat Forests. Basically if you plan on camping in April or May its going to be dispersed/primitive or private (and in VA until after 6/10 only dispersed/primitive..
Figure most people got their last haircuts between Feb and 3rd week of March. Going to be a lot of people going 3-4 months without haircuts...and a lot of bad home jobs lol...
(03-30-2020 09:35 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]Figure most people got their last haircuts between Feb and 3rd week of March. Going to be a lot of people going 3-4 months without haircuts...and a lot of bad home jobs lol...

Yep. Ordered a home hair clipper set from Amazon. Wife now wants to scalp me.
The issue isn't in what he said or how he said it. The issue began with having to repeatedly tell people to wash their hands and it continues with having to tell people to stop unnecessarily leaving their house, gathering in large groups, or standing right on top of people when they are out. It continues even moreso with the idiots that keep going out wearing masks that either a) could be used as PPE for medical folks that actually need them, or b) aren't actually effective forms of preventing the spread of the virus. What's even funnier are the folks wearing rubber gloves but clearly have never worked a food industry job in their life (or don't have enough common sense to understand cross contamination) and will handle their clothes/car keys/car doors/steering wheel/kids with the same rubber gloves they wore in the "danger zone". This won't get better until some of you stop being ******* stupid.
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