CSNbbs

(05-11-2020 03:24 PM)bjk3047 Wrote: [ -> ]Cent, imagine, if you will. 60% of America is forced to wear suits doused in gasoline. There's a defect in this suit that causes thousands of these suits to catch fire. Those with suits that have caught fire can potentially cause the same effect if they are within 6 feet of another (what with flames near gasoline and all).

Now, keep imagining, if you will. Cent, you are in the 40% of America that is not forced to wear these suits. How tone deaf do you think you would come off to alllll those other people if you were to say 'GEE I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE BIG DEAL IS. THIS ISN'T A PROBLEM FOR THOSE OF US THAT AREN'T DOUSED IN GASOLINE. LET'S GET THIS COUNTRY OPENED BACK UP.'

Even if at risk individuals do get this disease, it is not a death sentence by any means.

You know youre a crazy person when you start typing entire sentences in all caps.

(05-11-2020 03:24 PM)bjk3047 Wrote: [ -> ]Cent, imagine, if you will. 60% of America is forced to wear suits doused in gasoline. There's a defect in this suit that causes thousands of these suits to catch fire. Those with suits that have caught fire can potentially cause the same effect if they are within 6 feet of another (what with flames near gasoline and all).

Now, keep imagining, if you will. Cent, you are in the 40% of America that is not forced to wear these suits. How tone deaf do you think you would come off to alllll those other people if you were to say 'GEE I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE BIG DEAL IS. THIS ISN'T A PROBLEM FOR THOSE OF US THAT AREN'T DOUSED IN GASOLINE. LET'S GET THIS COUNTRY OPENED BACK UP.'

This is why I try to never wear a suit. You never know when it will catch on fire. I went to buy a suit the other day and asked the guy" will this thing catch on fire?" and he could not give me a straight answer so guess who's not wearing a suit...this guy! #suitsareadanger

(05-11-2020 03:57 PM)doubleduke2016 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-11-2020 03:24 PM)bjk3047 Wrote: [ -> ]Cent, imagine, if you will. 60% of America is forced to wear suits doused in gasoline. There's a defect in this suit that causes thousands of these suits to catch fire. Those with suits that have caught fire can potentially cause the same effect if they are within 6 feet of another (what with flames near gasoline and all).

Now, keep imagining, if you will. Cent, you are in the 40% of America that is not forced to wear these suits. How tone deaf do you think you would come off to alllll those other people if you were to say 'GEE I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE BIG DEAL IS. THIS ISN'T A PROBLEM FOR THOSE OF US THAT AREN'T DOUSED IN GASOLINE. LET'S GET THIS COUNTRY OPENED BACK UP.'

This is why I try to never wear a suit. You never know when it will catch on fire. I went to buy a suit the other day and asked the guy" will this thing catch on fire?" and he could not give me a straight answer so guess who's not wearing a suit...this guy! #suitsareadanger

Man, I hope my suit never get's doused in gasoline.

(05-11-2020 03:56 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote: [ -> ]You know youre a crazy person when you start typing entire sentences in all caps.

The irony dripping from this statement, wherein the very clear implication is that you are the one playing the part of the all caps meathead dolt in the scenario I presented...incredible.

(05-10-2020 08:46 AM)Hotrod829 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-07-2020 09:11 PM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-07-2020 07:38 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote: [ -> ]I didn't want to muddy up a perfectly good thread on pro Dukes but I wanted to point out Purple's take on the Dallas QB situation for anyone that decides they want to engage with him more on the coronavirus.

(05-04-2020 07:29 PM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]I truly believe that Nooch is better than Dalton....[quote cut]

What, are you breaking some big news? I believe that Nooch is at least as talented a QB as Dalton, probably better. Dalton stunk up the field last year. You don't have to be great to be better than a QB who stunk up the field. Maybe Dalton will be a new man in Dallas and be much better, but the Dalton who is coming into Dallas sucked last year. Sucking in Dallas will get you yanked in a heartbeat.

As I have already said numerous times, it is going to take injury or poor performance by those ahead of him, and there is a chance that Dak won't be one of them, for Nooch to see the field, but it has happened before. From there it is up to Nooch. I'm not saying it is going to happen. I believe the odds are slim. However, there is nowhere in the NFL that it is more likely to happen than Dallas. Why do you see it as such an impossibility?

He is no where close to Dalton lol

Yeah, I recall a lot of the same LOLs when no-experience UDFA Tony Romo replaced big-name veteran Drew Bledsoe in Dallas. Dalton is no Drew Bledsoe. In fact, I don't think Dalton is very good, coming off of a 2-14 year. Jerry Jones is just the guy to go all-in on an untested player because he is unhappy with his starter, whether it be for personal (money) reasons or poor performance.

Again, all I am saying is that Nooch is in the perfect spot for the stars to align. Odds are they won't, but they did for both of Dallas' past two QBs, Romo and Prescott. Now, let's just chill and hope Nooch gets a shot at some quality reps. Then, the rest will be up to him. Perhaps the stars will never align for Nooch, but not only can they align, they have aligned in Dallas. Twice in 15 years!

I hesitate to weigh in here, but we have to weigh the potential health risks against the absolute carnage this response is causing economically. The shelter in place was supposed to be a temporary measure to buy us time to figure out what we were dealing with and to avoid a situation where our hospitals are overrun a la Italy.

It was not sold to the American people as, nor can it be, an indefinite approach. We've learned a lot about the virus since it first emerged. People are going to get it. Very few are going to get sick, fewer still seriously so, and a minute percentage will die. Hell, I think we're all going to get it eventually. By all means, allow those who do not want to risk exposure stay at home. But forcing businesses (mostly small businesses) to close for this long is tyranny. If we stay in hiding long enough, there will be nothing to come out to when our ruling class deems us "safe".

I'm not on top of this subject nor the news in general. I worked 84 hours last week which doesn't leave a lot of time to tune into the latest happenings. With that said, something I'd be curious to know, how many deaths have there been in the US in 2020 up until May 1st. Then compare that number to Jan 1 to May 1each of the past five years. Are we significantly higher or are we in the same range of deaths? I'm believing it's not going to be a lot of difference. If there's that much difference then I believe it will only be seen in the major metropolitan areas. I guess that I believe a significant portion of deaths would have happened with or without this virus. We may even have a reduction in the numbers due to traffic accidents being down by over 50% from one report I read.

We are significantly higher. Over 66000 more deaths for Jan 1 through mid-April than expected US totals.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...#dashboard

(05-11-2020 10:43 PM)bjk3047 Wrote: [ -> ]We are significantly higher. Over 66000 more deaths for Jan 1 through mid-April than expected US totals.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...#dashboard

We are barely higher than expected US totals.
1/4: -1,374
1/11: -1,528
1/18: -3,077
1/25: -3552
2/1: -3,313
2/8: -2,900
2/15: -2,963
2/22: -2,446
2/29: -1,858
3/7: -1,818
3/14: -3,554
3/21: -2,748
3/28: +2,862
4/4: +13,262
4/11: +21,455
4/18: +16,501
4/25: -15,259 (BY FAR lowest weekly death total since Jan 2017).

Total: +20,534 higher. In a country of 329+ million that is tiny. Like .00006% of the population tiny.

BDK, I know you fancy yourself a numbers guy, but you have a few problems here.

1) I'm not going to pretend to care why or how you arrived at the incorrect total, but one of the tabs that the CDC created on their dashboard attempts (obviously that attempt has failed) to BDK-proof the possibility of misinformation.
"How do we make sure they use our information properly?" "Make it bold, red, and 32 point. Surely that will do the job."



Their methodology is spelled out, and even says it doesn't include NYC numbers! You'd be looking at another 24,000+ in excess deaths figuring those in.

2) As you're busy ignoring the explanation given on the graph you're quoting from (Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.), I like how you just willingly assume the data that's presented implies that the week of 4/25 had the least amount of deaths, COVID or otherwise, in the last 3 years by a margin of tens of thousands. Use your brain, guy.

3) Even for you, expressing the actual death variance as a fraction of the total population, as opposed to percentage of the expected death variance is incredibly stupid partisan hackery. If some lunatic goes on a killing spree with his Civil War-era musket and murders 500 people in Congress, you would not have a meaningful statistic if you said "Well that's 535 out of 328.2 million, so that's 0.000163 percent. Obviously no big deal." A meaningful stat would clearly be "Holy crap, he killed 500 out of 535 members of Congress. That's 93% of Congress totally wiped out." Or even expressed as percentage of variance to monthly average of people killed by gun violence in Washington DC. Really, anything remotely relevant and meaningful.

Please be better.

Went to the grocery store after work last night. Right away I noticed that the store had put green arrows to direct the flow of shoppers in the same way through aisles, and corresponding red X's indicating one-way on the opposing end of the aisles. Seems helpful to not face oncoming shoppers. Except that only about 40% of shoppers were abiding by the recommendation, which made me rage (at least some of them were wearing masks). All these recommendations (masks, distancing, traffic flows, capacity, etc) are only effective if everybody participates. I wish some people would swallow their pride, or just not be stupid. Common sense is a wonderful and rare thing.

bjk, BDK is using the net each week to get his total, including negative numbers for weeks when the total deaths fell below the excess threshold. The 66K is based on just setting the value to zero for weeks where the total fell below the threshold. The threshold is the upper limit of a 95% confidence interval, so their approach is probably better since that threshold is already high as opposed to the average. Seems like they should probably also be including a lower threshold for deaths below normal, though it doesn't look as if any weeks would hit that (pending 4/25, but I agree that that's likely just incomplete date).

Numbers for NYC are included in their charts and totals. Their note was saying NYC numbers are not included in the State of New York's numbers, presumably because they're both so high that they're worth tracking separately.

I'm not sure I'm really following what your saying the analysis should look like for point #3. It seems like when evaluating how big of an impact the virus had on America, we'd want to use the total population of America. Can you give an example of what would be more appropriate?

In general, what do you think the plan should be moving forward? I don't agree with all of Cent's points, but it seems like he's just saying restrictions should be relaxed (but not eliminated) for less at risk people in less at risk areas, and you seem strongly against that. Do you think there is a point when we can relax restrictions? Do you have an idea of when that would be or what that would look like? Do you think there is an acceptable threshold of deaths in order for society to gain additional functions back, or do you think any COVID-19 deaths is too many?

What's such a bummer, is for most of my life I have felt the US was in better shape, then than anyone else in the world, to handle any obstacle in life.

We're 4.25% of the world population
We're 28.41% of the Covid 19 deaths.

Think about that - our death rate is about 6.5 times worse than the rest of the world.

It did not even start here. We got a big head start, but apparently we were afraid increased testing would make things look worse, instead of realizing how knowledge could of helped us better contain this like most nations knew.

We get rid of the department that could of been instrumental in handing this. We fire people who alert the white house about what is potentially coming. The president apparently does not read daily briefs. We tell American citizens on a cruise ship we would prefer them to stay on the ship so as not make our numbers look worse. We have a president that just makes stuff up that is contrary to his experts. Injection of disinfectants? OMG

Patriots with AK47s (and no masks) marching on Richmond screaming in the faces of our law enforcement who are just standing there doing their jobs with masks on. If you don't like the elected officials ideas - the minority should attempt to intimidate them with guns. God Bless America.

And 40% of the population defending these actions.

Kinda a bummer. Things could be so much better health and economy wise now if we had not moved forward thinking these 10 cases "that were under control & that would shorty magically disappear".


It's not China, and it's not the press. We shot ourselves in the foot with AK47s.

(05-12-2020 08:10 AM)Dukester Wrote: [ -> ]What's such a bummer, is for most of my life I have felt the US was in better shape, then than anyone else in the world, to handle any obstacle in life.

We're 4.25% of the world population
We're 28.41% of the Covid 19 deaths.

Think about that - our death rate is about 6.5 times worse than the rest of the world.

It did not even start here. We got a big head start, but apparently we were afraid increased testing would make things look worse, instead of realizing how knowledge could of helped us better contain this like most nations knew.

We get rid of the department that could of been instrumental in handing this. We fire people who alert the white house about what is potentially coming. The president apparently does not read daily briefs. We tell American citizens on a cruise ship we would prefer them to stay on the ship so as not make our numbers look worse. We have a president that just makes stuff up that is contrary to his experts. Injection of disinfectants? OMG

Patriots with AK47s (and no masks) marching on Richmond screaming in the faces of our law enforcement who are just standing there doing their jobs with masks on. If you don't like the elected officials ideas - the minority should attempt to intimidate them with guns. God Bless America.

And 40% of the population defending these actions.

Kinda a bummer. Things could be so much better health and economy wise now if we had not moved forward thinking these 10 cases "that were under control & that would shorty magically disappear".


It's not China, and it's not the press. We shot ourselves in the foot with AK47s.

Do you actually believe we are experiencing 30% of the worlds covid deaths? Is that a serious statement?

(05-12-2020 08:10 AM)Dukester Wrote: [ -> ]What's such a bummer, is for most of my life I have felt the US was in better shape, then than anyone else in the world, to handle any obstacle in life.

We're 4.25% of the world population
We're 28.41% of the Covid 19 deaths.

Think about that - our death rate is about 6.5 times worse than the rest of the world.

It did not even start here. We got a big head start, but apparently we were afraid increased testing would make things look worse, instead of realizing how knowledge could of helped us better contain this like most nations knew.

We get rid of the department that could of been instrumental in handing this. We fire people who alert the white house about what is potentially coming. The president apparently does not read daily briefs. We tell American citizens on a cruise ship we would prefer them to stay on the ship so as not make our numbers look worse. We have a president that just makes stuff up that is contrary to his experts. Injection of disinfectants? OMG

Patriots with AK47s (and no masks) marching on Richmond screaming in the faces of our law enforcement who are just standing there doing their jobs with masks on. If you don't like the elected officials ideas - the minority should attempt to intimidate them with guns. God Bless America.

And 40% of the population defending these actions.

Kinda a bummer. Things could be so much better health and economy wise now if we had not moved forward thinking these 10 cases "that were under control & that would shorty magically disappear".


It's not China, and it's not the press. We shot ourselves in the foot with AK47s.

I think looking at deaths per million make much more sense. And of course, this is assuming everyone is reporting the same. If you look at deaths per million we are 13th in the world. The UK, Italy, Spain are twice or more what we have. 13th puts us behind places like:

Spain, Italy, UK, France, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland...It puts us in the same tier as places like Switzerland. We have completed more tests than any other country that is reporting and our tests per million (which again is a better indicator) puts us right around Canada, Singapore, UK, Finland, Hong Kong. So I am not sure we are too far off of where I expect us to be. We are right in the midst of most of our Western World peers I think.

(05-12-2020 08:00 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote: [ -> ]bjk, BDK is using the net each week to get his total, including negative numbers for weeks when the total deaths fell below the excess threshold. The 66K is based on just setting the value to zero for weeks where the total fell below the threshold. The threshold is the upper limit of a 95% confidence interval, so their approach is probably better since that threshold is already high as opposed to the average. Seems like they should probably also be including a lower threshold for deaths below normal, though it doesn't look as if any weeks would hit that (pending 4/25, but I agree that that's likely just incomplete date).

Numbers for NYC are included in their charts and totals. Their note was saying NYC numbers are not included in the State of New York's numbers, presumably because they're both so high that they're worth tracking separately.

I'm not sure I'm really following what your saying the analysis should look like for point #3. It seems like when evaluating how big of an impact the virus had on America, we'd want to use the total population of America. Can you give an example of what would be more appropriate?

In general, what do you think the plan should be moving forward? I don't agree with all of Cent's points, but it seems like he's just saying restrictions should be relaxed (but not eliminated) for less at risk people in less at risk areas, and you seem strongly against that. Do you think there is a point when we can relax restrictions? Do you have an idea of when that would be or what that would look like? Do you think there is an acceptable threshold of deaths in order for society to gain additional functions back, or do you think any COVID-19 deaths is too many?

Ohhh I see. I misinterpreted "Data for New York excludes New York City." to mean that NYC data was excluded from the entire subset and didn't see the separate entry for NYC. You right. So just the standard 66,000+.

Apologies if I was not clear on #3. Clearer example - For week ending April 11, the number of deaths listed by CDC was 79,621. If one wants to minimize the impact of our current predicament, one can compare 79,621 to the total population of the US - that's 0.02426% of the US population (COVID or otherwise). That's a tiny number, so it must not be a big deal. But if one more responsibly compares 79621 to the threshold for excess deaths, 58306, one arrives at a variance of 36.8%, which is obviously a much bigger deal (albeit on a shorter time scale). It's apples to apples. You compare deaths to historic or expected deaths, not deaths to everyone in the entire nation that's currently alive.

I'm simply pointing out that there are incredibly easy ways to be dishonest about COVID stats. Heck, even using year to date underestimates the impact, since you're including 2.5 months (Jan, Feb, half of Mar) in which there were no statistically significant COVID cases. There's a way to be fair and honest about statistics, and what BDK was doing against US population is not that.

I'm not strongly against reopening. I'm strongly against using bad logic or bad/misleading/incomplete data to justify that position. I'd say that, along with being strongly against bad logic or bad/misleading/incomplete data to minimize this pandemic, would be the main reason I'm driven to post on this topic on this forum.

My personal position is to defer to the guidance of public health experts who have spent their lives in the field as opposed to bureaucrats that, to varying degrees, dismiss or outright ignore said guidance.

As to when and how and what it would look like, see above. I felt like I had a better personal handle on what I would do from an economic standpoint while essentially in shelter in place mode. But reopening a country that's very much still in the middle of a pandemic is far enough above my paygrade that I don't even care to speculate as to how that should occur. There are many public health experts that do have opinions and plans and we should be listening to them, not ignoring them.

Boy, that last question is pretty sticky, eh? I'll be the first to admit that I decried folks in the previous COVID thread on their "this thing has only killed [smaller number that certainly has not aged well] people and we should not be worrying about it" comments. I think we just reach the threshold of logical fallacy - false dilemma - in that question. It implies that deaths are hypothetically necessary to gain additional functions back. Continued social distancing measures, improved and increased testing, and contact tracing (all things that are not being done at all or not being done consistently or not being done to a high enough degree) can get us there without sacrificing human life.

I'd be curious to see your opinions on the questions you posed.

(05-12-2020 08:47 AM)doubleduke2016 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-12-2020 08:10 AM)Dukester Wrote: [ -> ]What's such a bummer, is for most of my life I have felt the US was in better shape, then than anyone else in the world, to handle any obstacle in life.

We're 4.25% of the world population
We're 28.41% of the Covid 19 deaths.

Think about that - our death rate is about 6.5 times worse than the rest of the world.

It did not even start here. We got a big head start, but apparently we were afraid increased testing would make things look worse, instead of realizing how knowledge could of helped us better contain this like most nations knew.

We get rid of the department that could of been instrumental in handing this. We fire people who alert the white house about what is potentially coming. The president apparently does not read daily briefs. We tell American citizens on a cruise ship we would prefer them to stay on the ship so as not make our numbers look worse. We have a president that just makes stuff up that is contrary to his experts. Injection of disinfectants? OMG

Patriots with AK47s (and no masks) marching on Richmond screaming in the faces of our law enforcement who are just standing there doing their jobs with masks on. If you don't like the elected officials ideas - the minority should attempt to intimidate them with guns. God Bless America.

And 40% of the population defending these actions.

Kinda a bummer. Things could be so much better health and economy wise now if we had not moved forward thinking these 10 cases "that were under control & that would shorty magically disappear".


It's not China, and it's not the press. We shot ourselves in the foot with AK47s.

I think looking at deaths per million make much more sense. And of course, this is assuming everyone is reporting the same. If you look at deaths per million we are 13th in the world. The UK, Italy, Spain are twice or more what we have. 13th puts us behind places like:

Spain, Italy, UK, France, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland...It puts us in the same tier as places like Switzerland. We have completed more tests than any other country that is reporting and our tests per million (which again is a better indicator) puts us right around Canada, Singapore, UK, Finland, Hong Kong. So I am not sure we are too far off of where I expect us to be. We are right in the midst of most of our Western World peers I think.

Fair enough.

I heard on the radio saying we are 5% of world population and 25% of recorded deaths. That surprised my, so I calculated the exact number last night utilizing this site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So we are 13th worst of over a couple hundred listed countries? Not what I would hope for.

If we took this serious when we knew about it in January we could be much better off today health and economy wise.

(05-12-2020 08:17 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote: [ -> ]Do you actually believe we are experiencing 30% of the worlds covid deaths? Is that a serious statement?

I'll bite. What are you implying is incorrect about the statistics readily available from respected institutions like Johns Hopkins?

They have us at 32% of the world's cases and 28% of the world's deaths.

now there's a cherry picked statistic!