03-06-2020, 08:32 AM
Last week was a tough pill to swallow. We are not out of this thing yet, but we do have a lot of things that need to go our way going forward.
Let's cover non-WMU NCHC
1. NoDak locked in, they are now focused on trying to lock up a 1 seed.
2. Duluth, locked in by probability, but probably mathmatically possible they aren't. Duluth fans should just be focused on improving their seed.
3. Denver virtually the same as Duluth.
4. WMU...more later
5. St. Cloud...more later
6. Omaha, probably mathmatically alive, but they need soooo many things to go their way with other teams it's not worth the time to figure it out.
7. Miami...needs to win the tourney.
8. CC....needs to win the tourney.
OK....big picture time.
The following schools should feel pretty good about their playoff situation.
NoDak, Cornell, Duluth, Denver, Minn St., Boston College, Penn State, and largely confident for Clarkson, and UMass. For the most part I'd count those 9 teams as "locks" for the purpose of this post.
Remember 1 spot will also get taken by an auto-qualifier. So that's 10 spots off the table. That leaves 6 spots that appear "available" to WMU. This assumes no "surprise conference champs", so that number could fall to 5 or 4.
For those 6 spots the following teams seem in the hunt.
Bemidji, OSU, ASU, Lowell, Q, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, NE, WMU, ND, Providence, St. Cloud
(Math says there is a chance for a few other teams, but the scenario for one of those teams is quite incredible, so we'll leave them out)
It really means 13 schools for up to 6 spots (but maybe fewer spots).
We again can subdivide them into 3 categories. 1. Control Destiny, 2. True Bubble, 3. Needs help
Control Destiny: Bemidji, OSU, Lowell. These three teams likely punch their ticket this week by winning their series. (OSU fell into this group by getting swept at home last week by Wisconsin) These teams you must root against with a passion this week. If these three all win their series it might be 13 spots virtually locked after this weekend. Leaving 10 schools fighting for at most 3 spots, and maybe less.
True Bubble: ASU, Q, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, St. Cloud, WMU, NE, ND
All these teams need a good weekend to really stay alive. Math says they all could survive not sweeping the weekend, but they take power out of their hands and require help from other teams. This is largely the group that we have to out perform from here on out.
3. Needs Help: Providence, there are likely other teams below that could make an argument for this group but immense help is not the same thing as needs help.
WMU has the following schedule coming.
2 v. Miami
2-3 v. 1st round
2 games in Minny ***possible***
WMU has up to 7 game remaining...regardless of how many we play we need to win 5, the math can work with 1 tie with 4 wins, but that's not favorable math. Remember in Minnesota there are semifinal games, championship game, but also a 3rd place game.
We NEED to win 1 game in Minny. Just getting there and losing two will not work. Also the math says win 5, if we got swept this weekend that would require us to win the tourney, no way around it. If we split this weekend, we still need 4...only way to do that is win the tourney. So we'll know after this if we need to win it all to get in.
St. Cloud is actually in a slightly better place than us because of who they play this week (Duluth) v. us (Miami). Even if we sweep this weekend, St. Cloud will jump us if they sweep.
Also going 2-0 v. Omaha will give us more points than going 2-1 vs. St. Cloud.
The path is tough, but the beauty of it still is, if we win 5 it shouldn't matter what others do. (Especially if we go 5-1 v. 5-2).
Let's cover non-WMU NCHC
1. NoDak locked in, they are now focused on trying to lock up a 1 seed.
2. Duluth, locked in by probability, but probably mathmatically possible they aren't. Duluth fans should just be focused on improving their seed.
3. Denver virtually the same as Duluth.
4. WMU...more later
5. St. Cloud...more later
6. Omaha, probably mathmatically alive, but they need soooo many things to go their way with other teams it's not worth the time to figure it out.
7. Miami...needs to win the tourney.
8. CC....needs to win the tourney.
OK....big picture time.
The following schools should feel pretty good about their playoff situation.
NoDak, Cornell, Duluth, Denver, Minn St., Boston College, Penn State, and largely confident for Clarkson, and UMass. For the most part I'd count those 9 teams as "locks" for the purpose of this post.
Remember 1 spot will also get taken by an auto-qualifier. So that's 10 spots off the table. That leaves 6 spots that appear "available" to WMU. This assumes no "surprise conference champs", so that number could fall to 5 or 4.
For those 6 spots the following teams seem in the hunt.
Bemidji, OSU, ASU, Lowell, Q, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, NE, WMU, ND, Providence, St. Cloud
(Math says there is a chance for a few other teams, but the scenario for one of those teams is quite incredible, so we'll leave them out)
It really means 13 schools for up to 6 spots (but maybe fewer spots).
We again can subdivide them into 3 categories. 1. Control Destiny, 2. True Bubble, 3. Needs help
Control Destiny: Bemidji, OSU, Lowell. These three teams likely punch their ticket this week by winning their series. (OSU fell into this group by getting swept at home last week by Wisconsin) These teams you must root against with a passion this week. If these three all win their series it might be 13 spots virtually locked after this weekend. Leaving 10 schools fighting for at most 3 spots, and maybe less.
True Bubble: ASU, Q, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, St. Cloud, WMU, NE, ND
All these teams need a good weekend to really stay alive. Math says they all could survive not sweeping the weekend, but they take power out of their hands and require help from other teams. This is largely the group that we have to out perform from here on out.
3. Needs Help: Providence, there are likely other teams below that could make an argument for this group but immense help is not the same thing as needs help.
WMU has the following schedule coming.
2 v. Miami
2-3 v. 1st round
2 games in Minny ***possible***
WMU has up to 7 game remaining...regardless of how many we play we need to win 5, the math can work with 1 tie with 4 wins, but that's not favorable math. Remember in Minnesota there are semifinal games, championship game, but also a 3rd place game.
We NEED to win 1 game in Minny. Just getting there and losing two will not work. Also the math says win 5, if we got swept this weekend that would require us to win the tourney, no way around it. If we split this weekend, we still need 4...only way to do that is win the tourney. So we'll know after this if we need to win it all to get in.
St. Cloud is actually in a slightly better place than us because of who they play this week (Duluth) v. us (Miami). Even if we sweep this weekend, St. Cloud will jump us if they sweep.
Also going 2-0 v. Omaha will give us more points than going 2-1 vs. St. Cloud.
The path is tough, but the beauty of it still is, if we win 5 it shouldn't matter what others do. (Especially if we go 5-1 v. 5-2).