03-02-2020, 02:33 PM
ETSU 16-2 #66, #70 offense, #72 defense:
The offense has shaky spells, but can heat up in a hurry. Too many slow starts that wear on fans nerves and necessitate second half heroics. But lots of different guys are able to key a spurt. The Bucs can get hot from 3 or turn defense into offense in a heartbeat scoring off turnovers. They have been tough minded about rallying at the end, but it’s better not to have to do that. Taking care of business in conference has earned them an apparently easier road through the tournament, with UNCG, Furman and Wofford all on the other side of the bracket. But the rising performance of Western Carolina and Mercer may make that bracket a lot tougher than it seemed at first.
The Bucs are 1st in conference in limiting opponents points per game to 64.3, in scoring margin with +8.5, in limiting opponent’s 3 pointers (6.6 per game). They are 2nd in turnover margin (tied with Furman at +3.5) and 3rd in rebounding margin at 3.5 (behind Western at 5.1 and Mercer at 4.1).
First game opponent will be the winner of VMI vs Samford. Both of them have played us tough. Kenpom says VMI by 3.
Second game opponent will be the winner of Mercer versus Western Carolina. Kenpom says Western by 2.
Third round championship - likely Furman. Maybe UNCG or Wofford.
FURMAN 15-3 #74, #68 offense, #83 defense:
A well balanced team, #68 on offense and #84 on defense. Steady throughout the season with few let downs and able to win tough ones at the end. Much better offense than UNCG. Able to push the opposition off their mark and force them to set up further out than they would like. Only SoCon losses are on the road to Wofford and ETSU, and at home to UNCG. 2nd in conference in 2pt% at .579 and 4th in 3pt% at .348 for a 1st in conference total FG% of .473. Balance. The biggest departure from the even keel is their reliance on streaky scorer leading scorer Jordan Lyons (17.4 ppg) – when he’s off they struggle. Rebounding remains a weakness: #290 in D1 with -2.7 rebounding margin; 8th in conference with -2.8. Although they defend physically, they are not called for many fouls, sending opponents to the line a 2nd in conference 14.1 times per game. (The ‘defense optional’ Samford Bulldogs are 1st with 13.1 attempts for opponents. Interesting that Furman despite its tough, physical defense does almost as well.)
Wofford VERY likely to be their first game opponent. Kenpom says an 87% chance of Wofford beating The Citadel to get there. Wofford came within a last second bucket of sweeping the season against Furman.
UNCG 13-5, #87, #154 offense, #54 defense:
Ending the season on a down note with 2 straight losses. But to good teams in Furman (split the season, each winning away) and Chattanooga by 2. Have played 2 overtime games against Wofford, winning one and losing one. Four of their five losses are to ETSU (twice), Furman and Wofford. Only other conference loss is by 2 at a good Chattanooga team. Highest rated defense in the SoCon with #54 in Kenpom, best at limiting conference opponents’ 2 pt scores, and 2nd best in 2 pt% defense with .500. Weaker from 3, allowing .368 with 8.1 makes to opponents. Best turnover margin in D1 on the season at 6.4 (5.7 in conference). Offensive efficiency is weaker at #154. Leads the SoCon in steals with 9.4 (5th in D1) and blocks with 3.9. Wes Miller always has these guys playing tough and physical in the tournament.
UNCG faces off against Chattanooga in a replay of their last game, which they lost by 2 at Chattanooga 74-72. Earlier in the season they crushed Chattanooga at home by 20, 72-52.
This time Kenpom says UNCG by 5, 71-66, with a 32% chance (roughly 1 in 3) of another Moc upset.
Mercer 11-7, #196, #201 offense, #185 defense:
The Bears punch above their weight, winning more SoCon games than their stats would predict according to Kenpom where both Chattanooga #154 and Western Carolina #158 rate significantly higher than the Bears at #196. Don’t let them hang around because they are well coached and effective at the end of games, and make .748 of the free throws to close it out. They defend extremely well in conference, with a 1st place 2pt% defense of .498 and a 2nd place 3pt% defense of .308. They also shoot 2nd in conference .357 from 3 (but with only 7.9 makes, 8th in conference) and rebound extremely well for their size with a 2nd in conference rebounding margin of +4.1 to the Bucs 3rd place +3.5.
Kenpom favors Western Carolina over the Bears in a squeaker, 77-75, with a 42% chance of Mercer pulling it out.
Western Carolina 10-8, #158, #75 offense, #265 defense:
The Cats rate just behind Furman and ETSU on offense at #75 in Kenpom. They lead the conference in points per game with 78.4. Their defense is bad with an 8th place 76.9 points allowed and a #265 Kenpom rating. But you must hit your shots against these guys, because Carlos Dotson inside and their 3 point shooters outside are pretty hard to stop (Steger and MCray killed us from 3). Mason Faulkner controls the ball and distributes effectively, but he has had more difficulty scoring in conference as defenses focus on him. That’s a pretty well balanced offensive package. If you cannot make your shots, particularly from 3, you might wind up 10 points down, as ETSU was after going 3-21 from 3 (14.1%!) with 8 minutes left. Of course if you get hot, you can turn that around pretty quickly against the weak Catamount defense, as the Bucs also discovered. Pun Tisdale and Patrick have both gone off for 26 against them this year. There is a good chance that the Cats and the Bucs will get to replay this one in the second round of the SoCon Tournament, as ETSU’s second round opponent would be the winner of Mercer vs. Western. Mercer and Western split the season series with each winning at home. Both have given the Bucs fits. I’d love to see that Western Purple Thunder drumline again – it's one of the highlights of the tournament. The Western offense, I'm not so eager to see again.
Here's the Purple Thunder show from 2016, complete with rockin' DJ Timmy Trumpet riff at 3:00 in ... played on tuba!
Again, the Cats are favored over Mercer in a close one, 77-75.
Chattanooga 10-8, #154, #111 offense, #224 defense:
Decent offense with a 2nd in SoCon FG% of .467 and a 2nd in SoCon 3pt% of .367. A rebounding margin of +2.1, fourth in conference. Defense generally not strong, but a best in SoCon defensive 3pt% of .302 allowing 6.8 makes. Finished conference 5-2, losing only at Furman by 5, and at home to Mercer by 5.
They've got to face a UNCG team that they just beat last Saturday. Repeating that is a tough challenge. Kenpom says UNCG by 5, 71-66.
Wofford 7-11, #165 , #169 offense, #188 defense:
The Terriers had a pretty good out of conference season, playing the toughest schedule in the SoCon and only losing to very good teams. They came into conference ranked about #130 and near the top of D1 from 3, shooting .393 (21st in D1) with 11.1 makes (5th in D1).
But SoCon teams know that if you do nothing else against Wofford, you MUST defend the 3 ball. So in conference play the SoCon held Wofford to .313 with 8.4 makes from 3. ETSU did an extreme version of this, holding Wofford to 4-19 and 6-20 from 3 for 25.6% combined. But allowed inside access to the basket by redshirt Freshmen Messiah Jones and Isaiah Bigelow who got 55 points in 2 games, more than double their average. The bet was that you stop the starters and stop the 3, and it will be tough for the Freshmen to beat you inside. They came close though.
The Terriers come in off a 7 game losing streak – but every one of those to pretty good teams. If they get by The Citadel, they will face Furman (split, and Furman needed a bucket with 12 seconds left to avoid a second loss). And maybe UNCG after that, who split 2 overtime games with the Terriers. Neither of those teams wants any part of the Terriers.
Kenpom favors Wofford over The Citadel by 12, 79-67. A game against Furman will be interesting.
Samford 4-14, #316, #243 offense, #327 defense:
This team can look like the worst in the SoCon, losing 106-66 at Mercer and 109-78 at Western in the last 10 days. Or they can play up to their talent and give ETSU a real scare at Samford. The Bucs needed a late rally to eke out a road win 80-74 between those two blowouts. The Bulldogs got all 4 of their conference wins against the military academies and beat VMI by 6, 84-78, in their last game.
Kenpom favors VMI over Samford by 3, 78-75
VMI 3-15, #265, #214, #300:
Question for former Prof. Thomas Jackson on Friday: will the Institute be heard from today? Kenpom says, “yes”! A disciplined team that rarely gives up meets a talented but relatively undisciplined bunch that will quit if they get down. Don’t let Samford think that they can actually win though, or they might decide to play up to the level of their talent. A couple of talented freshmen in Travis Evee and Kamdyn Kurfman help the Keydets be tougher than expected. They lead the conference in assists.
Kenpom favors them by 3, 78-75, despite dropping 2 to Samford during the season.
The Citadel 0-18, #335, #313 offense, #323 defense:
At 0-18 with 8 straight double digit losses, The Citadel is most likely to go home early. But Wofford comes in with battered confidence and their own 7 game string of losing double digit leads down the stretch. Hang tough and the Bulldogs might be rewarded. Probably not though.
Kenpom says Wofford by 12.
See you in Asheville! Go Bucs!
The offense has shaky spells, but can heat up in a hurry. Too many slow starts that wear on fans nerves and necessitate second half heroics. But lots of different guys are able to key a spurt. The Bucs can get hot from 3 or turn defense into offense in a heartbeat scoring off turnovers. They have been tough minded about rallying at the end, but it’s better not to have to do that. Taking care of business in conference has earned them an apparently easier road through the tournament, with UNCG, Furman and Wofford all on the other side of the bracket. But the rising performance of Western Carolina and Mercer may make that bracket a lot tougher than it seemed at first.
The Bucs are 1st in conference in limiting opponents points per game to 64.3, in scoring margin with +8.5, in limiting opponent’s 3 pointers (6.6 per game). They are 2nd in turnover margin (tied with Furman at +3.5) and 3rd in rebounding margin at 3.5 (behind Western at 5.1 and Mercer at 4.1).
First game opponent will be the winner of VMI vs Samford. Both of them have played us tough. Kenpom says VMI by 3.
Second game opponent will be the winner of Mercer versus Western Carolina. Kenpom says Western by 2.
Third round championship - likely Furman. Maybe UNCG or Wofford.
FURMAN 15-3 #74, #68 offense, #83 defense:
A well balanced team, #68 on offense and #84 on defense. Steady throughout the season with few let downs and able to win tough ones at the end. Much better offense than UNCG. Able to push the opposition off their mark and force them to set up further out than they would like. Only SoCon losses are on the road to Wofford and ETSU, and at home to UNCG. 2nd in conference in 2pt% at .579 and 4th in 3pt% at .348 for a 1st in conference total FG% of .473. Balance. The biggest departure from the even keel is their reliance on streaky scorer leading scorer Jordan Lyons (17.4 ppg) – when he’s off they struggle. Rebounding remains a weakness: #290 in D1 with -2.7 rebounding margin; 8th in conference with -2.8. Although they defend physically, they are not called for many fouls, sending opponents to the line a 2nd in conference 14.1 times per game. (The ‘defense optional’ Samford Bulldogs are 1st with 13.1 attempts for opponents. Interesting that Furman despite its tough, physical defense does almost as well.)
Wofford VERY likely to be their first game opponent. Kenpom says an 87% chance of Wofford beating The Citadel to get there. Wofford came within a last second bucket of sweeping the season against Furman.
UNCG 13-5, #87, #154 offense, #54 defense:
Ending the season on a down note with 2 straight losses. But to good teams in Furman (split the season, each winning away) and Chattanooga by 2. Have played 2 overtime games against Wofford, winning one and losing one. Four of their five losses are to ETSU (twice), Furman and Wofford. Only other conference loss is by 2 at a good Chattanooga team. Highest rated defense in the SoCon with #54 in Kenpom, best at limiting conference opponents’ 2 pt scores, and 2nd best in 2 pt% defense with .500. Weaker from 3, allowing .368 with 8.1 makes to opponents. Best turnover margin in D1 on the season at 6.4 (5.7 in conference). Offensive efficiency is weaker at #154. Leads the SoCon in steals with 9.4 (5th in D1) and blocks with 3.9. Wes Miller always has these guys playing tough and physical in the tournament.
UNCG faces off against Chattanooga in a replay of their last game, which they lost by 2 at Chattanooga 74-72. Earlier in the season they crushed Chattanooga at home by 20, 72-52.
This time Kenpom says UNCG by 5, 71-66, with a 32% chance (roughly 1 in 3) of another Moc upset.
Mercer 11-7, #196, #201 offense, #185 defense:
The Bears punch above their weight, winning more SoCon games than their stats would predict according to Kenpom where both Chattanooga #154 and Western Carolina #158 rate significantly higher than the Bears at #196. Don’t let them hang around because they are well coached and effective at the end of games, and make .748 of the free throws to close it out. They defend extremely well in conference, with a 1st place 2pt% defense of .498 and a 2nd place 3pt% defense of .308. They also shoot 2nd in conference .357 from 3 (but with only 7.9 makes, 8th in conference) and rebound extremely well for their size with a 2nd in conference rebounding margin of +4.1 to the Bucs 3rd place +3.5.
Kenpom favors Western Carolina over the Bears in a squeaker, 77-75, with a 42% chance of Mercer pulling it out.
Western Carolina 10-8, #158, #75 offense, #265 defense:
The Cats rate just behind Furman and ETSU on offense at #75 in Kenpom. They lead the conference in points per game with 78.4. Their defense is bad with an 8th place 76.9 points allowed and a #265 Kenpom rating. But you must hit your shots against these guys, because Carlos Dotson inside and their 3 point shooters outside are pretty hard to stop (Steger and MCray killed us from 3). Mason Faulkner controls the ball and distributes effectively, but he has had more difficulty scoring in conference as defenses focus on him. That’s a pretty well balanced offensive package. If you cannot make your shots, particularly from 3, you might wind up 10 points down, as ETSU was after going 3-21 from 3 (14.1%!) with 8 minutes left. Of course if you get hot, you can turn that around pretty quickly against the weak Catamount defense, as the Bucs also discovered. Pun Tisdale and Patrick have both gone off for 26 against them this year. There is a good chance that the Cats and the Bucs will get to replay this one in the second round of the SoCon Tournament, as ETSU’s second round opponent would be the winner of Mercer vs. Western. Mercer and Western split the season series with each winning at home. Both have given the Bucs fits. I’d love to see that Western Purple Thunder drumline again – it's one of the highlights of the tournament. The Western offense, I'm not so eager to see again.
Here's the Purple Thunder show from 2016, complete with rockin' DJ Timmy Trumpet riff at 3:00 in ... played on tuba!
Again, the Cats are favored over Mercer in a close one, 77-75.
Chattanooga 10-8, #154, #111 offense, #224 defense:
Decent offense with a 2nd in SoCon FG% of .467 and a 2nd in SoCon 3pt% of .367. A rebounding margin of +2.1, fourth in conference. Defense generally not strong, but a best in SoCon defensive 3pt% of .302 allowing 6.8 makes. Finished conference 5-2, losing only at Furman by 5, and at home to Mercer by 5.
They've got to face a UNCG team that they just beat last Saturday. Repeating that is a tough challenge. Kenpom says UNCG by 5, 71-66.
Wofford 7-11, #165 , #169 offense, #188 defense:
The Terriers had a pretty good out of conference season, playing the toughest schedule in the SoCon and only losing to very good teams. They came into conference ranked about #130 and near the top of D1 from 3, shooting .393 (21st in D1) with 11.1 makes (5th in D1).
But SoCon teams know that if you do nothing else against Wofford, you MUST defend the 3 ball. So in conference play the SoCon held Wofford to .313 with 8.4 makes from 3. ETSU did an extreme version of this, holding Wofford to 4-19 and 6-20 from 3 for 25.6% combined. But allowed inside access to the basket by redshirt Freshmen Messiah Jones and Isaiah Bigelow who got 55 points in 2 games, more than double their average. The bet was that you stop the starters and stop the 3, and it will be tough for the Freshmen to beat you inside. They came close though.
The Terriers come in off a 7 game losing streak – but every one of those to pretty good teams. If they get by The Citadel, they will face Furman (split, and Furman needed a bucket with 12 seconds left to avoid a second loss). And maybe UNCG after that, who split 2 overtime games with the Terriers. Neither of those teams wants any part of the Terriers.
Kenpom favors Wofford over The Citadel by 12, 79-67. A game against Furman will be interesting.
Samford 4-14, #316, #243 offense, #327 defense:
This team can look like the worst in the SoCon, losing 106-66 at Mercer and 109-78 at Western in the last 10 days. Or they can play up to their talent and give ETSU a real scare at Samford. The Bucs needed a late rally to eke out a road win 80-74 between those two blowouts. The Bulldogs got all 4 of their conference wins against the military academies and beat VMI by 6, 84-78, in their last game.
Kenpom favors VMI over Samford by 3, 78-75
VMI 3-15, #265, #214, #300:
Question for former Prof. Thomas Jackson on Friday: will the Institute be heard from today? Kenpom says, “yes”! A disciplined team that rarely gives up meets a talented but relatively undisciplined bunch that will quit if they get down. Don’t let Samford think that they can actually win though, or they might decide to play up to the level of their talent. A couple of talented freshmen in Travis Evee and Kamdyn Kurfman help the Keydets be tougher than expected. They lead the conference in assists.
Kenpom favors them by 3, 78-75, despite dropping 2 to Samford during the season.
The Citadel 0-18, #335, #313 offense, #323 defense:
At 0-18 with 8 straight double digit losses, The Citadel is most likely to go home early. But Wofford comes in with battered confidence and their own 7 game string of losing double digit leads down the stretch. Hang tough and the Bulldogs might be rewarded. Probably not though.
Kenpom says Wofford by 12.
See you in Asheville! Go Bucs!