02-25-2020, 09:35 AM
1. NoDak (No Change)
5. Duluth (Down 1)
6. Denver (Down 1)
15. WMU (No Change)
22. St. Cloud (Up 5 )
25. Omaha (UP 1)
41. CC (No Change)
43. Miami (Down 1)
A net change of +3 for the league. The big mover being St. Cloud who kept it's postseason dreams alive.
**Important reminder!!! The postseason tournaments will play a large role in the outcome for many teams in regard to at-large placement, number of at-large teams, and seeding. Given we don't know matchups clearly it's still a little muddy in some details.**
OK...with that said here we go.
1. NoDak, they are locked into the tourney and it appears can fall nor further than a 2 seed.
5. Duluth, it's a little fuzzy on them being a tourney lock at this time, but in practicality they are given the likely first round matchup against CC/Miami they should get in.
6. Denver, similar boat to Duluth but a tougher first round matchup makes it slightly less of a lock. But in reality the top 3 are likely all good for the tourney.
I'll get to WMU later.
22. St. Cloud has helped it'self, and is still in a position to play themselves in without winning the NCHC tourney. The difficulty of the remaining schedule is their biggest challenge but biggest ally. Their path likely allows them to lose 1 more game before the Frozen Faceoff. If they drop it in the regular season they need a 2-0 1st round win. Since that will be against WMU or Denver likely that's a tough challenge.
25. Omaha is in a world of hurt they likely have a mathematical chance, but I struggle to call them a bubble team now.
CC/Miami need to win the tourney.
15. WMU....last week we needed a split to keep control of our destiny, and we got it. A sweep would've been nice and gave us breathing room, but it didn't happen. The situation for WMU got "slightly" better too given a few teams in our pack struggled. There are still almost 30 teams that can play their way in so it's not quite cut and dry yet. WMU does control a lot of it's future. Still the best way to get in requires a split this weekend. A sweep of Miami and 2-3 wins in the tourney. I'm thinking 2-2 in the tourney would be enough right now though a 2-3 would be bad news.
Current 1-10 teams are in strong position to get in barring a major fluke. Teams 11-22 are true Bubble teams, along with #29 New Hampshire. Teams 23 on down (minus NH) are virtually dead now outside of winning an auto-bid.
So let's look at the true Bubble teams. 13 teams in that batch are vying for as many as 5 spots. But that number could shrink to 3 or 4.
We can break the bubble teams into 3 categories 1. Control Destiny, 2. True Bubble 3. Need help
1. Control Destiny team are Mass-Lowell, Bemidji, Northeastern, WMU, St. Cloud (assuming 5 get in)
2. True Bubble ASU, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Maine, New Hampshire
3. Need Help Michigan, Q, Providence
So now you know the group to root against, if the Group 3 teams struggle at any point they are done, the group 2 likely will fall into either category this week (ASU only goes up with a lot of help otherwise they fall to group 3 next week) The Group 1 is the major dog fight all of those teams have either the positioning or schedule on their side to lock themselves in regardless what others do...................AGAIN if there are 5 at large spots.
It's not impossible for a top 10 team to fall into the bubble group with a bad weekend and all the group 1 teams on fire this weekend.
For WMU this weekend, get the split (or better). A sweep puts us at the top of group 1, and half way to getting locked in. If we sweep I think we need 3 more wins to get locked in. A split this weekend will keep us in Group 1 and likely bump us up a couple spots. A loss and a tie will put us basically at the bottom of Group 1. If we get swept we will become a Group 2 team.
Last week a lot of schedules were tough, this week many of those teams in the Bubble family have friendlier/more opportunistic games.
Group 1 matchups
Bemidji @ Minn St. (tough matchup but much like our matchup high reward possible)
Mass Lowell H/H New Hampshire (this could eliminate NH, or put them and Lowell solidly in Group 2)
Denver @ St. Cloud ( if SCSU struggles they will fall out of group 1, they need both)
WMU @ NoDak (similar to the Bemidji scenario)
Northeastern @ Vermont (seems likely they stay locked into Group 1)
5. Duluth (Down 1)
6. Denver (Down 1)
15. WMU (No Change)
22. St. Cloud (Up 5 )
25. Omaha (UP 1)
41. CC (No Change)
43. Miami (Down 1)
A net change of +3 for the league. The big mover being St. Cloud who kept it's postseason dreams alive.
**Important reminder!!! The postseason tournaments will play a large role in the outcome for many teams in regard to at-large placement, number of at-large teams, and seeding. Given we don't know matchups clearly it's still a little muddy in some details.**
OK...with that said here we go.
1. NoDak, they are locked into the tourney and it appears can fall nor further than a 2 seed.
5. Duluth, it's a little fuzzy on them being a tourney lock at this time, but in practicality they are given the likely first round matchup against CC/Miami they should get in.
6. Denver, similar boat to Duluth but a tougher first round matchup makes it slightly less of a lock. But in reality the top 3 are likely all good for the tourney.
I'll get to WMU later.
22. St. Cloud has helped it'self, and is still in a position to play themselves in without winning the NCHC tourney. The difficulty of the remaining schedule is their biggest challenge but biggest ally. Their path likely allows them to lose 1 more game before the Frozen Faceoff. If they drop it in the regular season they need a 2-0 1st round win. Since that will be against WMU or Denver likely that's a tough challenge.
25. Omaha is in a world of hurt they likely have a mathematical chance, but I struggle to call them a bubble team now.
CC/Miami need to win the tourney.
15. WMU....last week we needed a split to keep control of our destiny, and we got it. A sweep would've been nice and gave us breathing room, but it didn't happen. The situation for WMU got "slightly" better too given a few teams in our pack struggled. There are still almost 30 teams that can play their way in so it's not quite cut and dry yet. WMU does control a lot of it's future. Still the best way to get in requires a split this weekend. A sweep of Miami and 2-3 wins in the tourney. I'm thinking 2-2 in the tourney would be enough right now though a 2-3 would be bad news.
Current 1-10 teams are in strong position to get in barring a major fluke. Teams 11-22 are true Bubble teams, along with #29 New Hampshire. Teams 23 on down (minus NH) are virtually dead now outside of winning an auto-bid.
So let's look at the true Bubble teams. 13 teams in that batch are vying for as many as 5 spots. But that number could shrink to 3 or 4.
We can break the bubble teams into 3 categories 1. Control Destiny, 2. True Bubble 3. Need help
1. Control Destiny team are Mass-Lowell, Bemidji, Northeastern, WMU, St. Cloud (assuming 5 get in)
2. True Bubble ASU, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Maine, New Hampshire
3. Need Help Michigan, Q, Providence
So now you know the group to root against, if the Group 3 teams struggle at any point they are done, the group 2 likely will fall into either category this week (ASU only goes up with a lot of help otherwise they fall to group 3 next week) The Group 1 is the major dog fight all of those teams have either the positioning or schedule on their side to lock themselves in regardless what others do...................AGAIN if there are 5 at large spots.
It's not impossible for a top 10 team to fall into the bubble group with a bad weekend and all the group 1 teams on fire this weekend.
For WMU this weekend, get the split (or better). A sweep puts us at the top of group 1, and half way to getting locked in. If we sweep I think we need 3 more wins to get locked in. A split this weekend will keep us in Group 1 and likely bump us up a couple spots. A loss and a tie will put us basically at the bottom of Group 1. If we get swept we will become a Group 2 team.
Last week a lot of schedules were tough, this week many of those teams in the Bubble family have friendlier/more opportunistic games.
Group 1 matchups
Bemidji @ Minn St. (tough matchup but much like our matchup high reward possible)
Mass Lowell H/H New Hampshire (this could eliminate NH, or put them and Lowell solidly in Group 2)
Denver @ St. Cloud ( if SCSU struggles they will fall out of group 1, they need both)
WMU @ NoDak (similar to the Bemidji scenario)
Northeastern @ Vermont (seems likely they stay locked into Group 1)
