We are in middle of year 5 of Forbes & Co.
Yes, there have been good winning seasons, but there's only one championship to show for it. If Bucs don't make the dance this year, how do you feel about the state of the program? Is one out of five acceptable? Is that a level that you think reflects the potential and investment of ETSU? Is that a win frequency that will build the program the way we want?
We went to 3 tournaments in 12 years under Bartow plus an NIT (admittedly mostly in ASun). The latter years were tough to swallow because we weren't competitive and everyone saw we were declining. I think that sort of 25% championship rate is the floor of expectation.
That doesn't mean I think we should clean house if we don't go to the NCAA Tournament this year, but I do think this year's outcome determines whether we are to be a real force or just another "nice" program that stands more-or-less equal to tiny enrollment church-affiliated private colleges.
Is it OK with you just to be "in the mix" and win the conference once every few years? What do you think is the expectation level for ETSU?
Does it soften the disappointing record to note that it has been a different SoCon champ every year?
I'm happy with the job Forbes has done. The top tier programs of the SoCon have upped their game in recent years.
(12-15-2019 06:19 PM)Wadood Abides Wrote: [ -> ]We are in middle of year 5 of Forbes & Co.
Yes, there have been good winning seasons, but there's only one championship to show for it. If Bucs don't make the dance this year, how do you feel about the state of the program? Is one out of five acceptable? Is that a level that you think reflects the potential and investment of ETSU? Is that a win frequency that will build the program the way we want?
We went to 3 tournaments in 12 years under Bartow plus an NIT (admittedly mostly in ASun). The latter years were tough to swallow because we weren't competitive and everyone saw we were declining. I think that sort of 25% championship rate is the floor of expectation.
That doesn't mean I think we should clean house if we don't go to the NCAA Tournament this year, but I do think this year's outcome determines whether we are to be a real force or just another "nice" program that stands more-or-less equal to tiny enrollment church-affiliated private colleges.
Is it OK with you just to be "in the mix" and win the conference once every few years? What do you think is the expectation level for ETSU?
Does it soften the disappointing record to note that it has been a different SoCon champ every year?
This is a very interesting question. We all know that if Bartow was kept we would be playing for 5th place in the SoCon every year. Maybe 4th. But I can see both sides of the discussion. I really thought that we would be competing for or winning championships every year. If someone had told me we would only have one championship in five years I would not have believed it. We will know a lot more when the tournament is Asheville is over with. I do believe the Bucs should be more dominant in the league but if you asked North Carolina they would say the SoCon is pretty tough. Same if you asked Georgetown. It is a strong mid-major league and I hope we win it this year!
The SoCon has been getting better ever since Forbes got here. This year looks to be no different. Of course he has made the SoCon tourney championship game 3 of his last 4 years. After he got here, most of us thought Forbes would be gone by now to bigger and better things. I have to agree with '81 that I envisioned more "championship" success. After this year we can revisit this question.
We chew this fat every few months - not that there's anything wrong with that.
I think we can generally agree that the SoCon has gotten stronger since Forbes arrived. Part of that is simply that ETSU has gotten stronger - but absolutely UNC-G and Wofford (and now WCU, with their hotshot transfer) have *really* stepped up, while Chatt-town has fallen apart - but seems to be doing a pretty good job of rebuilding.
I think we *have* at least challenged for a conference championship - either regular season or tournament - every year he's been here. And I think that's a pretty good resume.
With 10 schools in the SoCon, one would expect a championship once every ten years - all things being equal - which of course they're not. Yes, we've won only one tournament title in 4 years, but were runner-up two other times. So that's really a better picture than saying we've only won once - while that's certainly true. The Chattanooga loss was close; the UNC-G one was not. So another way to look at it is that we've been playing for the conference championship 3 out of the four tournaments since Forbes has been here. (As etsuBucsFan1988 notes.) Really hard to criticize that very much. It's not like we've been losing to chumps, or choking it away like happened multiple times under the previous regime. [But see discussion about whether or not UNC-G "owns" ETSU right now.]
I think there are two concerns that remains to be 'resolved', or not: 1) can he bring in enough freshmen to "build" a longer-lasting team. History teaches us that that is not his modus operandi - but he *is* bringing in some - and then some of those are leaving for whatever reasons. But at least he seems to be competing for, and sometimes getting, some good talent. But bartow did that, too - altho not to Forbes's level. And look -- he's mostly done a quite masterful job of bringing together a real "team"; these guys truly love each other. I know that's a cliche, but just watch how our guys react when a foul is called on one of them, or when one of them messes up. They look out for each other. That's worth a lot on the basketball court. And they're also really good kids. And they're graduating - at least mostly.
And 2) can he get us to that "next level" in which an at large bid is at least a moderate possibility almost every year. With Wofford's successful example last year, that should pay dividends come seeding time. We've GOT to win the games we're supposed to - and knock off a P5 team at least every other year, given adequate opportunities. I don't think the NDSU loss is really a "bad loss", but it's one that would have been nice to have in the back pocket. And a lot of concern #2 depends on the overall conference - and no doubt that is trending upwards. If we can have a couple of years where *any* SoCon team gets an at-large bid, I think we'll be in a very good place.
And what alternatives are out there? I think probably at least 90-95% of us would rather have Forbes than almost any other 'reasonable' possible alternative. I mean.....come on now........we've had a good team *every single season* he's been here - even the first one. We went 24-12 with a cobbled-together team. Yes, we had Merriweather, Bradford, and Lester Wilson, but not a whole lot else in the cupboard. That's just pretty darn good.
*Of course* anyone can nibble complain around the edges, but overall I think we're in good shape. I'd kinda like to know why some of the recruits leave so early, but we're likely not really gonna know. I just think that's what recruiting has evolved into. Sad, but I also want to grant those youngsters the freedom they (at least think) they need to find the best fit for them.
I think the old adage "you want to put yourself in a position to win" applies here. While that's most often referring to a particular game, it can apply also to an overall season. And Forbes has clearly been successful in that. If he was even slightly *more* successful.........he wouldn't be here. And as bartow famously taught us once.............."winning is hard; the other team is trying to win, too!".
I think when we look at "big picture", we have to look at more than wins and losses. Tony Skole and Brittney Ezell type coaches will hang around longer than their wins/losses indicate that they should because of these other factors.
To me, the measure of a big picture includes at least the following: 1) success on the court, 2) academics of the athletes the coaches bring in, 3) integrity, 4) getting the fan base excited about your program. I don't think we ever really get to know the coach's integrity or the academics of the athletes, so that is something that we have to trust our AD to care about.
As far as success on the court, I am relatively happy. With Bartow, we were not a contender each year as we should have been. It is important to note that Forbes is earning roughly 3 times what Bartow did while he was here, so with that the expectations are much higher. I think our team has outperformed expectations some years and under performed others.
As far as getting our fan base excited about the program, I think that has largely been a success, with the exception of scheduling. Forbes certainly hasn't made any comments to the media that had a massive negative impact on fan support (Bartow did). The scheduling, whether Forbes could do better or not, has a risk of cutting some momentum from the program. There is no way that we have any argument about being an at large bid with the type of schedule we put together. Neither do any of the other teams that schedule as weak as we do.
At the end of the day, I think Forbes is one of the top 3 coaches in a good mid-major league. I don't think he is clearly the best in the conference. I think I am okay with that as long as the administration doesn't get carried away with his salary any further.
(12-16-2019 05:50 AM)etsubuc Wrote: [ -> ]As far as getting our fan base excited about the program, I think that has largely been a success, with the exception of scheduling. ........The scheduling, whether Forbes could do better or not, has a risk of cutting some momentum from the program. There is no way that we have any argument about being an at large bid with the type of schedule we put together. Neither do any of the other teams that schedule as weak as we do.
At the end of the day, I think Forbes is one of the top 3 coaches in a good mid-major league. I don't think he is clearly the best in the conference. I think I am okay with that as long as the administration doesn't get carried away with his salary any further.
Good points (including those I omitted for this reply), and the scheduling is part of what I meant in my concern #2. And I know Forbes believes he's always against the wall with scheduling (and I assume he is). We don't *really* know how big a factor Freedom Hall availability is. He certainly mentions it about 3 times every year leading up to finalization of the schedule. Last year's Wofford team is a good(?) comparison. They played UNC, Oklahoma, South Carolina, KU, and Miss. St., with the UNC game famously being in Spartanburg. (And then of course beating The Hall in the tournament.) They only won one of those, but all those P5 games certainly helped both their visibility and NET/RPI rankings. It'd be nice to know how they did all that, in a place that seats only about 3,400. Even tho yes, with the exception of UNC all games were road games.
On the other hand........Furman only played two P5 teams - beating 'nova in Philly and losing to LSU in Baton Rouge. (And not counting losing to the Shockers at home in the NIT.) I'm not gonna check them all, and we know Wofford's scheduling last year was an aberration. Or was it? This year they've played, or are going to play, Mizzou, USF, Butler, UNC, and Duke - even with a new coach. What's the difference? Is Wofford somehow buying *away* games??
[And it still really irks me we paid Appy $20K just to come here first. Was it a case of desperation to get a (more) decent home schedule? Or was it the ego/perception thing of hosting first?]
Zion Williamson is the main reason UNC played at Wofford. It was a recruiting ploy. The Tar Heels were in the recruiting final 5 for him. If Zion had picked UNC the game at Wofford would have been his homecoming game.
I also think Wofford's multiple trips to the NCAA tournament in the past 10 years may help them get road games against P5 teams.
(12-16-2019 10:27 PM)FUATT Wrote: [ -> ]Zion Williamson is the main reason UNC played at Wofford. It was a recruiting ploy. The Tar Heels were in the recruiting final 5 for him. If Zion had picked UNC the game at Wofford would have been his homecoming game.
I also think Wofford's multiple trips to the NCAA tournament in the past 10 years may help them get road games against P5 teams.
Thanks. I had forgotten the Williamson angle.
Bump - for discussion or reflection.....