CSNbbs

Just summarizing some interesting things, links at bottom.

1) Air Force is back in the top 25, it is #25 in both polls.

2) App State is ahead of Cincy in both polls ... 20 to 21 in both polls.

3) Memphis leads Boise in both polls ............ 16 to 17 Coaches, 16 to 19 AP.

4) Alabama fell to #9 in both polls.

5) Top 10 the same in both polls ... Utah at #5, Oklahoma at #6. Oregon is #13 in both polls.

LSU
OSU
CLM
UGA
UTA
OKL
FLR
BAY
ALA
WIS

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/po...ches-poll/

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeFootballPoll

Utah vs Oklahoma-
Utah up 18 in AP, 32 in coaches

(12-01-2019 02:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]Just summarizing some interesting things, links at bottom.

1) Air Force is back in the top 25, it is #25 in both polls.

2) App State is ahead of Cincy in both polls ... 20 to 21 in both polls.

3) Memphis leads Boise in both polls ............ 16 to 17 Coaches, 16 to 19 AP.

4) Alabama fell to #9 in both polls.

5) Top 10 the same in both polls ... Utah at #5, Oklahoma at #6. Oregon is #13 in both polls.

LSU
OSU
CLM
UGA
UTA
OKL
FLR
BAY
ALA
WIS

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/po...ches-poll/

https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeFootballPoll

Last week they were identical except for flipping 4 pairs of teams (ie one had Boise 19, Iowa 20, the other had Iowa 19, Boise 20).

AP poll:
#26 SMU
#29 La-Lafayette
#31 Hawaii
#32 UCF
#35 San Diego State
#38 Temple

Coaches seemed not to view G5 schools.

This is why I don't trust the AP (or any other human) poll...

Basically, I don't agree with Alabama (9) being ahead of Auburn (11) - even if the latter has one more loss than the former. Here's why I feel that way:
- against common opponents they have the same record (each lost to LSU).
- Auburn won the head-to-head matchup.
- Alabama won their two SEC East crossovers (Tennessee and South Carolina); Auburn lost theirs (Florida and Georgia). Big difference in SoS though!
- Alabama's best OOC win was Duke; Auburn beat Oregon. Big difference in SoS!


Now if you truly care about strength of schedule, this is the perfect test case. The team with 3 losses had a MUCH tougher schedule, has a better non-conference win, and has the head-to-head win. Auburn deserves to be ranked higher.


On the other hand, if you just want the polls to continue to rank teams based on "the eye test" (code for favoritism) then go ahead and put Bama ahead. In fact, why not just put the Tide into the playoffs as #4 (be sure to send them to Atlanta, too!)

AP Voters Break Down


The voter at CBSSports voted North Dakota State at 25. 6 G5s and 1 FCS teams in his top 25.

(12-01-2019 07:48 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]AP poll:
#26 SMU
#29 La-Lafayette
#31 Hawaii
#32 UCF
#35 San Diego State
#38 Temple

Coaches seemed not to view G5 schools.

Those same six teams received votes in the Coaches poll

SMU 26
Louisiana 29
Hawaii 31t
UCF 31t
San Diego St 34t
Temple 38

and had the same or better ratings... Another DavidSt fail.

(12-02-2019 11:12 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]This is why I don't trust the AP (or any other human) poll...

Basically, I don't agree with Alabama (9) being ahead of Auburn (11) - even if the latter has one more loss than the former. Here's why I feel that way:
- against common opponents they have the same record (each lost to LSU).
- Auburn won the head-to-head matchup.
- Alabama won their two SEC East crossovers (Tennessee and South Carolina); Auburn lost theirs (Florida and Georgia). Big difference in SoS though!
- Alabama's best OOC win was Duke; Auburn beat Oregon. Big difference in SoS!


Now if you truly care about strength of schedule, this is the perfect test case. The team with 3 losses had a MUCH tougher schedule, has a better non-conference win, and has the head-to-head win. Auburn deserves to be ranked higher.


On the other hand, if you just want the polls to continue to rank teams based on "the eye test" (code for favoritism) then go ahead and put Bama ahead. In fact, why not just put the Tide into the playoffs as #4 (be sure to send them to Atlanta, too!)

Looking at the Sagarin, of the 51 teams in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and Notre Dame, Alabama's SOS ranks 45th. Auburn's is second.

(12-02-2019 11:12 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]This is why I don't trust the AP (or any other human) poll...

Basically, I don't agree with Alabama (9) being ahead of Auburn (11) - even if the latter has one more loss than the former. Here's why I feel that way:
- against common opponents they have the same record (each lost to LSU).
- Auburn won the head-to-head matchup.
- Alabama won their two SEC East crossovers (Tennessee and South Carolina); Auburn lost theirs (Florida and Georgia). Big difference in SoS though!
- Alabama's best OOC win was Duke; Auburn beat Oregon. Big difference in SoS!


Now if you truly care about strength of schedule, this is the perfect test case. The team with 3 losses had a MUCH tougher schedule, has a better non-conference win, and has the head-to-head win. Auburn deserves to be ranked higher.


On the other hand, if you just want the polls to continue to rank teams based on "the eye test" (code for favoritism) then go ahead and put Bama ahead. In fact, why not just put the Tide into the playoffs as #4 (be sure to send them to Atlanta, too!)

Auburn won with 2 pick sixes at home by 3 after Alabama missed a 40 yd FG by an inch and played without their starting QB for the first full game against FBS. Home field advantage is often said to be worth 3 points.

There are probabilities in winning and losing. Massey composite has Alabama #11 and Auburn #13. Head to head in one game of 12 is not the only thing to rate.

Computers seem to like Alabama's margin of victory. Sagarin has them 4th behind Ohio St., Clemson and LSU. Shows Ohio St. as 3-0, Clemson as 1-0, LSU as 5-0 and Alabama as 1-2 vs. top 30. Has Michigan at 8, top 3 loss team (2-3 top 30), Auburn at 10 (3-3), Iowa next 3 loss team at 16 (2-3), Texas A&M as top 5 loss team at 17 (0-5), Washington next 5 loss team at 19 (1-2) and Texas next at 20 (2-4).

(12-02-2019 11:12 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]This is why I don't trust the AP (or any other human) poll...

Basically, I don't agree with Alabama (9) being ahead of Auburn (11) - even if the latter has one more loss than the former. Here's why I feel that way:
- against common opponents they have the same record (each lost to LSU).
- Auburn won the head-to-head matchup.

The computers have Alabama ahead of Auburn as well. Basically everyone does, though the CFP, the only thing that counts, weighs in tonight.

IMO, the H2H is actually the weakest argument. First, Vegas says that HFA is worth 3-7 points, so really, any H2H that finishes within that margin should be treated as almost a wash.

Auburn barely won, 48-45, and they needed really good fortune to do it. Two Pick-6s, including one that went 100 yards after hitting a Bama WRs arm? The refs giving Auburn time to kick an end of half FG they shouldn't have had time for? The Bama kicker doinks a game-tying kick?

Alabama had 7 more first downs and 515 yards to 354 for Auburn. It was a H2H win for Auburn in name only, so to speak.

(12-03-2019 10:04 AM)EvanJ Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-02-2019 11:12 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]This is why I don't trust the AP (or any other human) poll...

Basically, I don't agree with Alabama (9) being ahead of Auburn (11) - even if the latter has one more loss than the former. Here's why I feel that way:
- against common opponents they have the same record (each lost to LSU).
- Auburn won the head-to-head matchup.
- Alabama won their two SEC East crossovers (Tennessee and South Carolina); Auburn lost theirs (Florida and Georgia). Big difference in SoS though!
- Alabama's best OOC win was Duke; Auburn beat Oregon. Big difference in SoS!


Now if you truly care about strength of schedule, this is the perfect test case. The team with 3 losses had a MUCH tougher schedule, has a better non-conference win, and has the head-to-head win. Auburn deserves to be ranked higher.


On the other hand, if you just want the polls to continue to rank teams based on "the eye test" (code for favoritism) then go ahead and put Bama ahead. In fact, why not just put the Tide into the playoffs as #4 (be sure to send them to Atlanta, too!)

Looking at the Sagarin, of the 51 teams in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and Notre Dame, Alabama's SOS ranks 45th. Auburn's is second.

HUGE difference. It's like they didn't play in the same league.

(12-03-2019 02:31 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-03-2019 10:04 AM)EvanJ Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-02-2019 11:12 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]This is why I don't trust the AP (or any other human) poll...

Basically, I don't agree with Alabama (9) being ahead of Auburn (11) - even if the latter has one more loss than the former. Here's why I feel that way:
- against common opponents they have the same record (each lost to LSU).
- Auburn won the head-to-head matchup.
- Alabama won their two SEC East crossovers (Tennessee and South Carolina); Auburn lost theirs (Florida and Georgia). Big difference in SoS though!
- Alabama's best OOC win was Duke; Auburn beat Oregon. Big difference in SoS!


Now if you truly care about strength of schedule, this is the perfect test case. The team with 3 losses had a MUCH tougher schedule, has a better non-conference win, and has the head-to-head win. Auburn deserves to be ranked higher.


On the other hand, if you just want the polls to continue to rank teams based on "the eye test" (code for favoritism) then go ahead and put Bama ahead. In fact, why not just put the Tide into the playoffs as #4 (be sure to send them to Atlanta, too!)

Looking at the Sagarin, of the 51 teams in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and Notre Dame, Alabama's SOS ranks 45th. Auburn's is second.

HUGE difference. It's like they didn't play in the same league.

One of the things that is wrong with 14 team leagues.

But there is more to it than schedule strength. Fact is Alabama lost 1 less game.

They had 5 common opponents. Both beat Arkansas by 41. Auburn beat MSU by 33, Alabama by 31. Auburn lost to LSU by 3, Alabama by 5. Those 3 were basically equal. Auburn beat A&M by 8, Alabama by 19. Auburn beat Ole Miss by 6, Alabama by 28. Then Auburn won H-H by 3 at home.

You can make an argument for ranking Auburn higher, but its hardly clearcut. That Alabama lost by only 3 on the road w/o Tua in a crazy game, makes H-H not especially compelling. Its one more factor.

(12-03-2019 03:46 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]You can make an argument for ranking Auburn higher, but its hardly clearcut. That Alabama lost by only 3 on the road w/o Tua in a crazy game, makes H-H not especially compelling. Its one more factor.

Tua is out for the year. Alabama is not the same team without him.

Auburn had to play Florida and Georgia. Alabama got Tennessee and South Carolina.

Reverse those, and Alabama has 3 or 4 losses, Auburn 2

(12-03-2019 04:14 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-03-2019 03:46 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]You can make an argument for ranking Auburn higher, but its hardly clearcut. That Alabama lost by only 3 on the road w/o Tua in a crazy game, makes H-H not especially compelling. Its one more factor.

Tua is out for the year. Alabama is not the same team without him.

Auburn had to play Florida and Georgia. Alabama got Tennessee and South Carolina.

Reverse those, and Alabama has 3 or 4 losses, Auburn 2

Actually Auburn would be sitting out the Championship game with only 1 loss if you reversed those two. We beat the 2 Mississippi's, A&M, Alabama and Arkansas. We lost to L.S.U. who would still have gone to the CCG.

Now if you just accepted the schools we play annually and had subbed South Carolina or Tennessee for Florida we would have 2 losses. But subbing UT and USCe for Florida and Georgia it would only have been 1.

(12-03-2019 04:14 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-03-2019 03:46 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]You can make an argument for ranking Auburn higher, but its hardly clearcut. That Alabama lost by only 3 on the road w/o Tua in a crazy game, makes H-H not especially compelling. Its one more factor.

Tua is out for the year. Alabama is not the same team without him.

Auburn had to play Florida and Georgia. Alabama got Tennessee and South Carolina.

Reverse those, and Alabama has 3 or 4 losses, Auburn 2

Eh ... I tend not to believe this. I get the logic, but let's face it: LSU is probably the best team in the country and has a hellacious offense. Auburn has arguably the most talented defense in the country.

And yet it took *everything* AU and LSU had to beat a wounded Alabama team.

Alabama is still a very, very tough out. Hard for me to see them losing 3 or 4 games no matter what schedule they play.

(12-03-2019 04:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-03-2019 04:14 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-03-2019 03:46 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]You can make an argument for ranking Auburn higher, but its hardly clearcut. That Alabama lost by only 3 on the road w/o Tua in a crazy game, makes H-H not especially compelling. Its one more factor.

Tua is out for the year. Alabama is not the same team without him.

Auburn had to play Florida and Georgia. Alabama got Tennessee and South Carolina.

Reverse those, and Alabama has 3 or 4 losses, Auburn 2

Eh ... I tend not to believe this. I get the logic, but let's face it: LSU is probably the best team in the country and has a hellacious offense. Auburn has arguably the most talented defense in the country.

And yet it took *everything* AU and LSU had to beat a wounded Alabama team.

Alabama is still a very, very tough out. Hard for me to see them losing 3 or 4 games no matter what schedule they play.

And South Carolina had a good enough day one Saturday to give Georgia their only loss so far.

Well the selection committee dropped Alabama to 12th and Auburn at 11 in the new poll. The top four remain as is with Utah 5th and Oklahoma 6th and I believe Baylor moved up to 8th. I do remember that Florida was 9th and Penn State was 10th. Didn't pay much attention to the rest but it seems that Notre Dame was 13th. Wisconsin must have been 7th.

So that should give this argument more grist to grind.