1. MWC-Boise State 4-0 .......(865) +35/even
2. AAC-SMU 5-0 ..................(859) +269/up 2
3. AAC-Central Florida 4-1 ....(711) -87/dn 1
4. AAC-Memphis 4-0 ............(645) +15/dn 1
5. SBC-Appalachian State 4-0 (632) +78/even
6. AAC-Cincinnati 3-1 ...........(326) +106/up 3
7. MWC-Air Force 3-1 ............(321) +21/dn 1
8. MWC-Utah State 3-1 .........(254) +38/up 2
9. AAC-Tulane 3-1 ................(241) +125/up 6
10 MWC-Wyoming 4-1 ...........(206) +2/up 1
11 MWC-San Diego State 3-1 .(184) -42/dn 3
12 MWC-Hawaii 4-1 ..............(164) +72/up 5
13 AAC-Temple 3-1 ...............(136) -160/dn 6
14 MAC-Eastern Michigan 3-1 .(116) -52/dn 1
15 SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-2 ....(76) -16/up 2
16 SBC-Louisiana 4-1 ..............(66) +48/up 6
17 MWC-Nevada 3-2 ...............(58) -26/up 2
18 MWC-Fresno State 2-2 ........(46) -48/dn 2
19 AAC-Houston 2-3 ................(38) +16/up 2
20 CUSA-Marshall 2-2 ..............(24) even/even
21 SBC-Troy 2-2 ......................(14) nr/nr
22 MWC-San Jose State 2-2 ......(12) nr/nr
23 SBC-Arkansas State 3-2 ........(0) nr/nr
24 AAC-Navy 2-1 ......................(0) -176/dn 12
25 MAC-Toledo 3-1 ....................(0) -18/dn 3
ORFFC Points: NA
Dropped: UAB, Southern Miss, Western Michigan
Conference...total points...(conf avg pts: total pts/total teams) [last week conf avg pts]
1. AAC......2956.....(246.3) [237.5]
2. MWC.....2110.....(175.8) [170.5]
3. SBC........788.......(78.8) [65.4]
4. MAC........116........(9.7) [15.7]
5. CUSA........24........(1.7) [11.4]
G5 (60 teams) as a whole week over week comparison...
5898 Week 4 total points/60 = 98.3
5994 Week 5 total points/60 = 99.9
So, G5 collectively rose (strengthened) by 96 total points and the G5 average rose (strengthened) by 1.6 points.
How can Marshall have the same rating as before (#20), when they got rolled 52-14 at home by the team that was ranked #9?
(09-29-2019 06:55 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: [ -> ]How can Marshall have the same rating as before (#20), when they got rolled 52-14 at home by the team that was ranked #9?
1). Because there isn’t more than 19 G5 teams with more FF Composite points than Marshall.
2). Because there are 40 G5 teams with less FFC points than Marshall.
3). Methodology: FF Composite Points...
(Weight = X2) for inverse top 65 of: ESPN FPI + Massey Ratings + Sagarin + CBS 130
+
(Weight = X3) for inverse 50 of: Coaches Poll, including others receiving votes
+
(Weight = X4) for inverse 50 of: AP Poll, incl ORV
+
Bonus of 130 points for being undefeated
+
Bonus of (Weighted X2) inverse 100 of beating top100 P5 (per Massey Ratings) at home
+
Bonus of (Weighted X4) inverse 100 of beating top 100 P5 on the road
-
Minus Sagarin ranking of lost to FCS
____________________________________________________________
= total FF Composite Points
...so, 4)., since Marshall has been, and is only getting, top 65 points from the computers, the computers didn’t see Marshall’s getting rolled up as bad as the ups and downs of the 129 other FBS teams (250+ D1 teams per Sagarin). Purely by coincidence, they still have the same exact points as last week.
(09-29-2019 06:55 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: [ -> ]How can Marshall have the same rating as before (#20), when they got rolled 52-14 at home by the team that was ranked #9?
And besides....I have 666 posts on this site. So you better listen to me, mister!
Lulz... appreciate the effort
Quote:1. MWC-Boise State 4-0 .......(865) +35/even
2. AAC-SMU 5-0 ..................(859) +269/up 2
3. AAC-Central Florida 4-1 ....(711) -87/dn 1
4. AAC-Memphis 4-0 ............(645) +15/dn 1
5. SBC-Appalachian State 4-0 (632) +78/even
6. AAC-Cincinnati 3-1 ...........(326) +106/up 3
7. MWC-Air Force 3-1 ............(321) +21/dn 1
8. MWC-Utah State 3-1 .........(254) +38/up 2
9. AAC-Tulane 3-1 ................(241) +125/up 6
10 MWC-Wyoming 4-1 ...........(206) +2/up 1
11 MWC-San Diego State 3-1 .(184) -42/dn 3
12 MWC-Hawaii 4-1 ..............(164) +72/up 5
13 AAC-Temple 3-1 ...............(136) -160/dn 6
14 MAC-Eastern Michigan 3-1 .(116) -52/dn 1
15 SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-2 ....(76) -16/up 2
16 SBC-Louisiana 4-1 ..............(66) +48/up 6
17 MWC-Nevada 3-2 ...............(58) -26/up 2
18 MWC-Fresno State 2-2 ........(46) -48/dn 2
19 AAC-Houston 2-3 ................(38) +16/up 2
20 CUSA-Marshall 2-2 ..............(24) even/even
21 SBC-Troy 2-2 ......................(14) nr/nr
22 MWC-San Jose State 2-2 ......(12) nr/nr
23 SBC-Arkansas State 3-2 ........(0) nr/nr
24 AAC-Navy 2-1 ......................(0) -176/dn 12
25 MAC-Toledo 3-1 ....................(0) -18/dn 3
I dunno about this, as far as Race to NY6. I can understand some deserved computational ranking right-now, worth considering, which is how I take it.
But to make the NY6, you'll need to win your conference. A CUSA Champ who is NOT nearly as good as an AAC 2nd-place team has a better shot at NY6 slot, is the angle I'm coming from.
So what are SMU's chances of actually Winning the AAC? Sans TCU, they got much of the easier part of their schedule out of the way. Tulsa, Temple, @Houston, @Memphis, @Navy -- plus two easy ones remaining. Do I really think they'll go 5-0 in that? Then also beat UCF to win the AAC on top of that? I wouldn't think so.
And Eastern Michigan 9 places over Toledo? Do I really give EMU that bigger of a probability to win the MAC than Toledo? And Houston at 2-3 -- who has to play Cinci, SMU, @UCF, Memphis, @Tulsa, and Navy. Do I really think they're going to go undefeated in all this? But let's say "almost". Do I really think a 4L team is going to NY6?
IMO, 3 losses at this point starting conference season would put someone out. 2L max, pretty much, right (although theoretically you could have 3L near end of season and be the best G5 Conf Champ; 2L to ranked P5 opponents, 1L in your conference to a great team).
(09-29-2019 03:18 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote: [ -> ]1. MWC-Boise State 4-0 .......(865) +35/even...(@UNLV)
2. AAC-SMU 5-0 ..................(859) +269/up 2...(vs Tulsa)
3. AAC-Central Florida 4-1 ....(711) -87/dn 1...L @ #6 Cincy
4. AAC-Memphis 4-0 ............(645) +15/dn 1...W @ ULM
5. SBC-Appalachian State 4-0 (632) +78/even...bye
6. AAC-Cincinnati 3-1 ...........(326) +106/up 3...W vs #3 UCF
7. MWC-Air Force 3-1 ............(321) +21/dn 1...L @ #24 Navy
8. MWC-Utah State 3-1 .........(254) +38/up 2...L @ LSU
9. AAC-Tulane 3-1 ................(241) +125/up 6...W @ Army
10 MWC-Wyoming 4-1 ...........(206) +2/up 1...bye
11 MWC-San Diego State 3-1 .(184) -42/dn 3...(@ CO St)
12 MWC-Hawaii 4-1 ..............(164) +72/up 5...bye
13 AAC-Temple 3-1 ...............(136) -160/dn 6...W @ ECU
14 MAC-Eastern Michigan 3-1 .(116) -52/dn 1...L @ CMU
15 SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-2 ....(76) -16/up 2...bye
16 SBC-Louisiana 4-1 ..............(66) +48/up 6...bye
17 MWC-Nevada 3-2 ...............(58) -26/up 2...bye
18 MWC-Fresno State 2-2 ........(46) -48/dn 2...bye
19 AAC-Houston 2-3 ................(38) +16/up 2...bye
20 CUSA-Marshall 2-2 ..............(24) even/even...L @ MTSU
21 SBC-Troy 2-2 ......................(14) nr/nr.......L @ Mizzou
22 MWC-San Jose State 2-2 ......(12) nr/nr......W vs UNM
23 SBC-Arkansas State 3-2 ........(0) nr/nr......L @ GA St
24 AAC-Navy 2-1 ......................(0) -176/dn 12...W vs #7 AirForce
25 MAC-Toledo 3-1 ....................(0) -18/dn 3...W vs WMU
ORFFC Points: NA
Dropped: UAB, Southern Miss, Western Michigan
***UPDATE (W/L results only)***
Toledo fans thinking 12-1 easily. Wouldn't put them past the radar.