CSNbbs

Thinking about this from a few angles:
- Is Elon overrated?
- Is JMU just really good?
- Is there really that much drop-off within the top 25?

1 - No, Elon is probably a solid 20-25 ranked team.
2 - Yes, JMU is going crush a few more teams' dreams this year.
3 - Yes, I participate in the AnyGivenSaturday poll and voting each Sunday from about 15 - 25 is an awful experience. Once you get outside the top 15 in FCS it's really a crapshoot.

Heck no Elon is not overrated, JMU is simply way underrated. We're the best team by a landslide. Ya got to believe until proven wrong, then make 'em prove it again.

No.
Yes.
There’s a massive drop off from #1 to #2 for seven of the last eight years. As you would imagine, most top 5 programs can easily handle any team that isn’t top 10 worthy. There’s just a huge difference from #2 to #24. You’ll also see that among the P5.

Agree with 007

Elon is not overrated, their other losses were to P5 Wake Forest, and a close loss to #17 NC A&T. FCS schools are generally not expected to compete with P5 teams.

Yes, JMU is looking like a title contender this year, WVU blew the doors off NC State, and we had a shot to beat them. Despite the early naysayers, this is a very good team that is getting better each week.

Yes, I’d say the gap between the top 5-10 and rest of FCS is large.

UC Davis looks overrated at #4, and Montana may be in the hunt for a seed over EWU this year. Montana’s big win yesterday makes NDSU’s game against UCD look not great. UCD hung with the bison till late in the game.

(09-29-2019 09:04 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]Agree with 007

Elon is not overrated, their other losses were to P5 Wake Forest, and a close loss to #17 NC A&T. FCS schools are generally not expected to compete with P5 teams.

Yes, JMU is looking like a title contender this year, WVU blew the doors off NC State, and we had a shot to beat them. Despite the early naysayers, this is a very good team that is getting better each week.

Yes, I’d say the gap between the top 5-10 and rest of FCS is large.

UC Davis looks overrated at #4, and Montana may be in the hunt for a seed over EWU this year. Montana’s big win yesterday makes NDSU’s game against UCD look not great. UCD hung with the bison till late in the game.

Correct on UCD @ NDSU. Was 20-16 until late 4th with back to back INTs & 27-16 final.

Yep on Montana. Montana was ***** slapping UCD @ UCD 38-7 in the 3rd & won 45-20. Bobby Hauck has them turned around in his 2nd season. Yep, UCD was probably over rated, and the biggest fraud EWU can kiss a seed goobye. 2-3, and one if those wins was vs a Div II (where they gave up 31 points). Their defense has been an abomination. Heck, they have to win out just to be a playoff lock. If they lose another 7-4 (DII game doesn’t count) in a 12 game season would leave them on the bubble. I see them losing a couple more, including @ Montana, and no playoffs. The Big Sky seeded team(s) will come down to the 2 Montanas (both 4-1 with P5 losses) & Weber. Both Weber’s losses are 6 point losses to G5 teams, and they just soundly beat a good UNI team. UCD probably the 4th Big Sky playoff team.

NDSU has a gauntlet the next 5 weeks:
10/5 @ ILSU (3-1)
10/12 UNI (2-2)
10/19 MO St (0-3)
10/26 @ SDSU (3-1)
11/2 @ YSU (4-0)
I think they lose 2...

(09-29-2019 09:48 AM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 09:04 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]Agree with 007

Elon is not overrated, their other losses were to P5 Wake Forest, and a close loss to #17 NC A&T. FCS schools are generally not expected to compete with P5 teams.

Yes, JMU is looking like a title contender this year, WVU blew the doors off NC State, and we had a shot to beat them. Despite the early naysayers, this is a very good team that is getting better each week.

Yes, I’d say the gap between the top 5-10 and rest of FCS is large.

UC Davis looks overrated at #4, and Montana may be in the hunt for a seed over EWU this year. Montana’s big win yesterday makes NDSU’s game against UCD look not great. UCD hung with the bison till late in the game.

Correct on UCD @ NDSU. Was 20-16 until late 4th with back to back INTs & 27-16 final.

Yep on Montana. Montana was ***** slapping UCD @ UCD 38-7 in the 3rd & won 45-20. Bobby Hauck has them turned around in his 2nd season. Yep, UCD was probably over rated, and the biggest fraud EWU can kiss a seed goobye. 2-3, and one if those wins was vs a Div II (where they gave up 31 points). Their defense has been an abomination. Heck, they have to win out just to be a playoff lock. If they lose another 7-4 (DII game doesn’t count) in a 12 game season would leave them on the bubble. I see them losing a couple more, including @ Montana, and no playoffs. The Big Sky seeded team(s) will come down to the 2 Montanas (both 4-1 with P5 losses) & Weber. Both Weber’s losses are 6 point losses to G5 teams, and they just soundly beat a good UNI team. UCD probably the 4th Big Sky playoff team.

NDSU has a gauntlet the next 5 weeks:
10/5 @ ILSU (3-1)
10/12 UNI (2-2)
10/19 MO St (0-3)
10/26 @ SDSU (3-1)
11/2 YSU (4-0)
I think they lose 2...

The female chickens went toe to toe with the smelly Bisons after they replaced Keyhole at QB, more evidence to support my statement since pre-season that this year's NDSU team is not the dominant powerhouse of years past. I think both 'nova and Towson are better than the smelly Bisons or at least on par with them. We are waaaaay better. The thing NDSU has going for them is, just like always, they are very disciplined and play almost mistake-free football. We can't make mistakes against them no matter how much better we are, like the 2017 Butterfingers Bowl in Frisco.

To me the MVC as a whole is a bit overrated.

Youngstown has a Sam Houston soft schedule this year OOC, beating up on teams like RMU. They haven’t faced anyone worth talking about, so that 4-0 record is a fraud.

Not completely sold on UNI either, though think they are one of two teams that could take down NDSU. The UNI v Youngstown game will be interesting to me, if UNI is legit I expect them to pound YSU.

SDSU is the team that I think is most likely to win vs the bison.

The thing is, even in a slightly down year, the Bison could lose one game, get a top 2 seed, and still ride the Dome noise factor back to Frisco. It will probably take the emergence of someone like Montana or Weber and a road playoff game to knock them out.

NDSU wasn’t going to lose 1 of their 1st 2 games (non scholly Butler, N Dakota), or their last 3 WIU, S Dakota, @ SIU). Any loss(es) will come from the middle 7 games. They got through the 1st 2 (UD easy, UCD not so easy). Like I said, it will be among 4 of those above 5, MO St being the only easy/cupcake game).

(09-29-2019 10:38 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]To me the MVC as a whole is a bit overrated.

Youngstown has a Sam Houston soft schedule this year OOC, beating up on teams like RMU. They haven’t faced anyone worth talking about, so that 4-0 record is a fraud.

Not completely sold on UNI either, though think they are one of two teams that could take down NDSU. The UNI v Youngstown game will be interesting to me, if UNI is legit I expect them to pound YSU.

SDSU is the team that I think is most likely to win vs the bison.

The thing is, even in a slightly down year, the Bison could lose one game, get a top 2 seed, and still ride the Dome noise factor back to Frisco. It will probably take the emergence of someone like Montana or Weber and a road playoff game to knock them out.

Make that 1 of 3. ILSU I think has a better chance @ home next week than UNI does on the road.

If SDSU knocks off NDSU in Brookings & NDSU, SDSU, & JMU didn’t lose anya other games, it could be (ignoring P5 losses)
1. JMU/SDSU 11-0/8-0 (not sure if SDSU would leapfrog JMU or not).
2. JMU/SDSU 11-0/8-0
3. NDSU 11-1/7-1.

Even if SDSU then dropped one would have the tied conference record and own the head to head over NDSU.

You could also possibly have an 11-0/8-0 Montana or Montana St in the mix. Bit of a long shot..

(09-29-2019 11:07 AM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 10:38 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]To me the MVC as a whole is a bit overrated.

Youngstown has a Sam Houston soft schedule this year OOC, beating up on teams like RMU. They haven’t faced anyone worth talking about, so that 4-0 record is a fraud.

Not completely sold on UNI either, though think they are one of two teams that could take down NDSU. The UNI v Youngstown game will be interesting to me, if UNI is legit I expect them to pound YSU.

SDSU is the team that I think is most likely to win vs the bison.

The thing is, even in a slightly down year, the Bison could lose one game, get a top 2 seed, and still ride the Dome noise factor back to Frisco. It will probably take the emergence of someone like Montana or Weber and a road playoff game to knock them out.

Make that 1 of 3. ILSU I think has a better chance @ home next week than UNI does on the road.

If SDSU knocks off NDSU in Brookings & NDSU, SDSU, & JMU didn’t lose anya other games, it could be (ignoring P5 losses)
1. JMU/SDSU 11-0/8-0 (not sure if SDSU would leapfrog JMU or not).
2. JMU/SDSU 11-0/8-0
3. NDSU 11-1/7-1.

Even if SDSU then dropped one would have the tied conference record and own the head to head over NDSU.

You could also possibly have an 11-0/8-0 Montana or Montana St in the mix. Bit of a long shot..

I’m a hesitant “maybe” on ILSU having a chance. They lost to a 1-3 NIU squad, that seems like a middling FBS team at best. Vanderbilt’s only win is against NIU, and NIU does not have a single FBS win.

ILSU’s wins: Moorehead State, 0-5 Eastern Illinois, and 2-3 NAU. Not very impressive. ILSU may be good enough to win, but if so that says more about NDSU weakness than ILSU strength to me.

Is ILSU better than UCD? Maybe, but they don’t seem like a top 8 FCS team to me.

Two teams I’m keeping an eye on that I think have a chance to go undefeated in FCS and make an argument for top 4 seeds : Montana and Furman. The committee may throw out their FBS losses and potentially seed them higher than teams with a FCS loss, presuming they win out.

(09-29-2019 08:11 AM)GOMRDS Wrote: [ -> ]Thinking about this from a few angles:
- Is Elon overrated?
- Is JMU just really good?
- Is there really that much drop-off within the top 25?

Yes Elon was overrated. Completely outmanned in the trenches.
Yes JMU is really good. Returning 19 or 20 of 22 starters.
There is a big drop off in the rankings. A Very watered down FCS has many multiple loss teams still in the rankings. The alternative is rank FCS teams that don’t give scholarships or give fewer than 63 scholarships. Their strength of schedule is so weak that it is hard to justify ranking them.

Cignetti set the bar at championship or bust in his first press conference and we probably won’t see strong competition until the quarterfinals or semifinals.

(09-29-2019 01:15 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 08:11 AM)GOMRDS Wrote: [ -> ]Thinking about this from a few angles:
- Is Elon overrated?
- Is JMU just really good?
- Is there really that much drop-off within the top 25?

Yes Elon was overrated. Completely outmanned in the trenches.
Yes JMU is really good. Returning 19 or 20 of 22 starters.
There is a big drop off in the rankings. A Very watered down FCS has many multiple loss teams still in the rankings. The alternative is rank FCS teams that don’t give scholarships or give fewer than 63 scholarships. Their strength of schedule is so weak that it is hard to justify ranking them.

Cignetti set the bar at championship or bust in his first press conference and we probably won’t see strong competition until the quarterfinals or semifinals.

Don’t sleep on Nova, SBU or Towson. I’m especially thankful we’re playing Nova at our place this year, but JMU could drop any one of those games. As for next week’s game on the road, SBU will be ready for JMU and I expect a very, very tough game. Should JMU manhandle SBU I’ll relax, but there’s at least three stiff in-conference tests before the playoffs.

(09-29-2019 11:07 AM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 10:38 AM)JMURocks Wrote: [ -> ]To me the MVC as a whole is a bit overrated.

Youngstown has a Sam Houston soft schedule this year OOC, beating up on teams like RMU. They haven’t faced anyone worth talking about, so that 4-0 record is a fraud.

Not completely sold on UNI either, though think they are one of two teams that could take down NDSU. The UNI v Youngstown game will be interesting to me, if UNI is legit I expect them to pound YSU.

SDSU is the team that I think is most likely to win vs the bison.

The thing is, even in a slightly down year, the Bison could lose one game, get a top 2 seed, and still ride the Dome noise factor back to Frisco. It will probably take the emergence of someone like Montana or Weber and a road playoff game to knock them out.

Make that 1 of 3. ILSU I think has a better chance @ home next week than UNI does on the road.

If SDSU knocks off NDSU in Brookings & NDSU, SDSU, & JMU didn’t lose anya other games, it could be (ignoring P5 losses)
1. JMU/SDSU 11-0/8-0 (not sure if SDSU would leapfrog JMU or not).
2. JMU/SDSU 11-0/8-0
3. NDSU 11-1/7-1.

Even if SDSU then dropped one would have the tied conference record and own the head to head over NDSU.

You could also possibly have an 11-0/8-0 Montana or Montana St in the mix. Bit of a long shot..

If the bracket worked out, that could bring the smelly Bisons to Bridgeforth. What a game that would be!

Yeah, they are the best 3 remaining on the schedule. I’m interested to see Villanova and little Danny Smith at QB. Can he handle the Dukes big boy defense? TBD. I’ve never seen him play.

Stony Brook has a passing QB problem and the Dukes will definitely make them pass.
Towson has a turrible defense. I don’t think they can score enough to hang.

Of course, these teams could win a lopsided turnover battle and complete negate the advantages JMU has in personnel. Could happen as we’ve seen before.

(09-29-2019 01:23 PM)Longhorn Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 01:15 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 08:11 AM)GOMRDS Wrote: [ -> ]Thinking about this from a few angles:
- Is Elon overrated?
- Is JMU just really good?
- Is there really that much drop-off within the top 25?

Yes Elon was overrated. Completely outmanned in the trenches.
Yes JMU is really good. Returning 19 or 20 of 22 starters.
There is a big drop off in the rankings. A Very watered down FCS has many multiple loss teams still in the rankings. The alternative is rank FCS teams that don’t give scholarships or give fewer than 63 scholarships. Their strength of schedule is so weak that it is hard to justify ranking them.

Cignetti set the bar at championship or bust in his first press conference and we probably won’t see strong competition until the quarterfinals or semifinals.

Don’t sleep on Nova, SBU or Towson. I’m especially thankful we’re playing Nova at our place this year, but JMU could drop any one of those games. As for next week’s game on the road, SBU will be ready for JMU and I expect a very, very tough game. Should JMU manhandle SBU I’ll relax, but there’s at least three stiff in-conference tests before the playoffs.

Weird things can happen, but if we play next Saturday the way we played this Saturday, we are going to smoke Stony the same way we smoked Elon. Stony struggled to beat winless Rhode Island. Their run D looks pretty good, but they haven't seen a run offense like they are going to see Saturday (so proud of our O-line). They could also only put up 26 points on a pretty terrible Wagner team.

Their QB, Tyquell Fields is not a great passer, but he can run. He tears off big ones. He has had at least one run of 44 yards or more in every game except one so far this season (44, 50, 67, 82). He may find out how difficult that is to do against us. Utah State, which, admittedly, is very good, destroyed Stony 62-7. We are at least that good. Barring mistakes and since the game is at their place, my prediction is another 45-10 outing.

(09-29-2019 03:52 PM)Purple Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 01:23 PM)Longhorn Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 01:15 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 08:11 AM)GOMRDS Wrote: [ -> ]Thinking about this from a few angles:
- Is Elon overrated?
- Is JMU just really good?
- Is there really that much drop-off within the top 25?

Yes Elon was overrated. Completely outmanned in the trenches.
Yes JMU is really good. Returning 19 or 20 of 22 starters.
There is a big drop off in the rankings. A Very watered down FCS has many multiple loss teams still in the rankings. The alternative is rank FCS teams that don’t give scholarships or give fewer than 63 scholarships. Their strength of schedule is so weak that it is hard to justify ranking them.

Cignetti set the bar at championship or bust in his first press conference and we probably won’t see strong competition until the quarterfinals or semifinals.

Don’t sleep on Nova, SBU or Towson. I’m especially thankful we’re playing Nova at our place this year, but JMU could drop any one of those games. As for next week’s game on the road, SBU will be ready for JMU and I expect a very, very tough game. Should JMU manhandle SBU I’ll relax, but there’s at least three stiff in-conference tests before the playoffs.

Weird things can happen, but if we play next Saturday the way we played this Saturday, we are going to smoke Stony the same way we smoked Elon. Stony struggled to beat winless Rhode Island. Their run D looks pretty good, but they haven't seen a run offense like they are going to see Saturday (so proud of our O-line). They could also only put up 26 points on a pretty terrible Wagner team.

Their QB, Tyquell Fields is not a great passer, but he can run. He tears off big ones. He has had at least one run of 44 yards or more in every game except one so far this season (44, 50, 67, 82). He may find out how difficult that is to do against us. Utah State, which, admittedly, is very good, destroyed Stony 62-7. We are at least that good. Barring mistakes and since the game is at their place, my prediction is another 45-10 outing.

I wouldn’t put any stock in SBU’s long trip out west to the Rockies & Utah State for forecasting the JMU/SBU score. Last year SBU went out to the Rockies for their opener and got destroyed 38-0 by an Air Force team that finished 5-7, and JMU only managed to beat SBU at home 13-10. That Utah State team was 11-2 last season, and lost @ Wake Forest by 3 (who destroyed Elon 49-7). Probably the top Mtn West team & one of the Top 3 or so G5 teams (Sagarin has them at 33). A stretch to say JMU is that good. Certainly not better.

UD also struggled to beat winless URI, but just went toe to toe with Pitt, who went toe to toe with Penn State...

SBU beat Wagner 26-10.
UConn beat Wagner 24-21.
Yeah, I know UConn blows for a G5, but SBU is probably better than them.
-SBU is probably a notch better than Elon.
-Also won’t have the advantage of Cignetti intimately knowing half the Elon staff AND their players.
-Also there is no payback for last season like there was with Elon.
-Also the 3rd straight road game. That has to negatively effect the team some.
-Course should get SBU’s ‘A’ game.

I’m thinking more along the lines of JMU by 2-3 TDs.

I think the Bison are going to luck out with the year they're starting with a new head coach and young team. There seems to be a lot of parity in the FCS this year, including the CAA and MVC. Maybe Montana or Nova end up being a surprise top 5 team but right now it looks like maybe SDST and JMU might be the only ones to impede another championship.

We have the talent, we just need to be on the plus side of turnovers and execute, execute, execute. I don't care how many games NDST loses this season, I have a feeling they're going to be in the finals again.

(09-29-2019 04:36 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn’t put any stock in SBU’s long trip out west to the Rockies & Utah State for forecasting the JMU/SBU score. Last year SBU went out to the Rockies for their opener and got destroyed 38-0 by an Air Force team that finished 5-7, and JMU only managed to beat SBU at home 13-10. That Utah State team was 11-2 last season, and lost @ Wake Forest by 3 (who destroyed Elon 49-7). Probably the top Mtn West team & one of the Top 3 or so G5 teams (Sagarin has them at 33). A stretch to say JMU is that good. Certainly not better.

I think he was comparing JMU to SBU in saying that JMU is at least as good to score a TD vs. Utah St and hold them to 60 some odd points.

Regarding SBU, it's the next test at the next level up from Elon. This year is shaping up nicely in terms of difficulty in the schedule. We nearly caught WVU off guard, then faced increasingly "tough" patsy OOC games in Sept leading up to the heart of the schedule in Oct for JMU to be a well-oiled machine, especially after three road games (of which two are average - above average CAA foes).

I am feeling good about this year. Fingers crossed for a healthy team the whole way.

Out West, I think Montana is the team to watch - they've been a FCS sleeping giant the past decade. Weber St. is a seasoned playoff team now too. SDSU I am less concerned can run the table, though that based on nothing but a gut feeling.

(09-30-2019 12:45 AM)Yesolitis Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-29-2019 04:36 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn’t put any stock in SBU’s long trip out west to the Rockies & Utah State for forecasting the JMU/SBU score. Last year SBU went out to the Rockies for their opener and got destroyed 38-0 by an Air Force team that finished 5-7, and JMU only managed to beat SBU at home 13-10. That Utah State team was 11-2 last season, and lost @ Wake Forest by 3 (who destroyed Elon 49-7). Probably the top Mtn West team & one of the Top 3 or so G5 teams (Sagarin has them at 33). A stretch to say JMU is that good. Certainly not better.

I think he was comparing JMU to SBU in saying that JMU is at least as good to score a TD vs. Utah St and hold them to 60 some odd points.

Regarding SBU, it's the next test at the next level up from Elon. This year is shaping up nicely in terms of difficulty in the schedule. We nearly caught WVU off guard, then faced increasingly "tough" patsy OOC games in Sept leading up to the heart of the schedule in Oct for JMU to be a well-oiled machine, especially after three road games (of which two are average - above average CAA foes).

I am feeling good about this year. Fingers crossed for a healthy team the whole way.

Out West, I think Montana is the team to watch - they've been a FCS sleeping giant the past decade. Weber St. is a seasoned playoff team now too. SDSU I am less concerned can run the table, though that based on nothing but a gut feeling.

Its a bit early yet, but if I was picking the best seed level teams who would be a tough out in the playoffs today, think it would include:

NDSU, JMU, SDSU, Villanova, Montana, Weber St, Kennesaw, UNI/Towson/Furman

Those look like the best 10 to me. Versus gives Montana a power ranking of #3 in FCS and it does seem Bobby has them back to top form.