(12-22-2019 09:42 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I have no idea why this offseason turned so crazy.
My first reaction is "who cares - it's great" except my second reaction is "**** - the Dodgers completely whiffed". So my third reaction, as stated earlier, is that we had a unique set of circumstances: Big money/market teams, with lots of room under the cap, had identified needs where there were elite free agents, as well as several very good FAs. Those teams were willing to spend and drove the market up for everyone. Compare to last year, with all the complaints and assertions of collusion re Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Kimbrel. First, no big market teams except Philly NEEDED Harper (plenty enough would've liked to have him but that's why they all offered lower bids), and I think the shine was already coming off him - he's pretty much solidified himself as a very good not elite player. I'm not sure any big market teams wanted Machado; Dodgers definitely were out. And Keuchel and Kimbrel showed pretty well during 2019 why they weren't worth huge money last year.
tl; dr... markets change
(12-22-2019 11:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Ryu to the Blue Jays- 4/80
Sounds about right. I don't think the Dodgers were every really in on Ryu despite what people are saying. They know his history and I'm guessing they weren't willing to go more than 3 and there was no way Boras would take that. Heard Ryu wanted to come back but I just don't think there was going to be a way.
We'll see how this shakes out now. Does Friedman want to proceed with Buehler/Kershaw/Maeda/Urias/May/Stripling/Gonsolin? It's a lot of depth, and maybe even a lot of high ceiling, but it's also incredibly risky. You can't say they *won't* win with these guys but I'd be a lot happier if they could swing a deal for Clevinger. Or frankly even Price! (Let's face it, taking Betts in exchange for Price's salary and tossing in a couple of non-elite prospects is the kind of deal that seems tailor made for Friedman.) I think it'd be ok to have back-end starter Price if there's a chance we get 2018 playoffs Price as well.
(12-23-2019 02:25 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (12-22-2019 09:42 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I have no idea why this offseason turned so crazy.
My first reaction is "who cares - it's great" except my second reaction is "**** - the Dodgers completely whiffed". So my third reaction, as stated earlier, is that we had a unique set of circumstances: Big money/market teams, with lots of room under the cap, had identified needs where there were elite free agents, as well as several very good FAs. Those teams were willing to spend and drove the market up for everyone. Compare to last year, with all the complaints and assertions of collusion re Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Kimbrel. First, no big market teams except Philly NEEDED Harper (plenty enough would've like to have him but that's why they all offered lower bids), and I think the shine was already coming off him - he's pretty much solidified himself as a very good not elite player. I'm not sure any big market teams wanted Machado; Dodgers definitely were out. And Keuchel and Kimbrel showed pretty well during 2019 why they weren't worth huge money last year.
tl; dr... markets changeno collusion.
FIFY as you gave rational reasons why there was never any collusion the previous year--just teams making rational decisions for a change.
Can't believe waht the White Sox gave Keuchel. Sorry for them.
(12-23-2019 02:31 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (12-22-2019 11:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Ryu to the Blue Jays- 4/80
Sounds about right. I don't think the Dodgers were every really in on Ryu despite what people are saying. They know his history and I'm guessing they weren't willing to go more than 3 and there was no way Boras would take that. Heard Ryu wanted to come back but I just don't think there was going to be a way.
We'll see how this shakes out now. Does Friedman want to proceed with Buehler/Kershaw/Maeda/Urias/May/Stripling/Gonsolin? It's a lot of depth, and maybe even a lot of high ceiling, but it's also incredibly risky. You can't say they *won't* win with these guys but I'd be a lot happier if they could swing a deal for Clevinger. Or frankly even Price! (Let's face it, taking Betts in exchange for Price's salary and tossing in a couple of non-elite prospects is the kind of deal that seems tailor made for Friedman.) I think it'd be ok to have back-end starter Price if there's a chance we get 2018 playoffs Price as well.
Maybe it will be addition by subtraction for the Dodgers and they'll be better, maybe even get over the hump. Most other teams have more holes to fill/less depth and options still than the Dodgers have even now.
(12-22-2019 09:42 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-21-2019 08:12 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]Dallas Keuchel to the White Sox for three years deal at $55.5MM, with a vesting fourth year that could take it to 4/$74MM? yuck. Keuchel was average-to-below in the half of a regular season he pitched for the Braves last year after all the hype. And he was terrible in the playoffs. Maybe he bounces back, but that contract amount and length looks like a huge mistake that could saddle the White Sox with an albatross in their rebuild.
This has been a crazy overspending offseason after a few more pragmatic ones the previous years.
Right now, much as I'd like him back, I'd say what Donaldson likely will get and contract length are just not worth the long-term downside, even if he has a good first year or two up front. I like him as a player, and his intangibles are very helpful to a team, but the prices are way too high this year, and it seems like teams would be better off looking for turnaround candidates that are much lower cost and lower risk.
Also, trading for Kris Bryant, much as I'd like to, seems like it would also come at too high a cost in money and prospects--unless part of the deal was for him to agree in advance to a longer term extension deal as part of the trade.
These are the kind of off-seasons that make me root for the Yankers to fall on their faces, especially to a smaller-market team.
Keuchel was slightly above average last year, pitching in only the 2nd half of the season(where the ERA's are higher).
I have no idea why this offseason turned so crazy.
He was terrible, especially after all the hype pre-signing. Braves would have done just as well (and saved big bucks) by going withy one of their youngsters again, or plugging Newcomb back in the rotation and plugging anyone in the bullpen. Keuchel was and is overrated. White Sox seem to have made a big blunder.
Brooks' post above on this page gives good reasons for the spending this year and last year's comparative lack.
Pretty funny - and too close to the truth...
(12-23-2019 05:11 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2019 02:31 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (12-22-2019 11:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Ryu to the Blue Jays- 4/80
Sounds about right. I don't think the Dodgers were every really in on Ryu despite what people are saying. They know his history and I'm guessing they weren't willing to go more than 3 and there was no way Boras would take that. Heard Ryu wanted to come back but I just don't think there was going to be a way.
We'll see how this shakes out now. Does Friedman want to proceed with Buehler/Kershaw/Maeda/Urias/May/Stripling/Gonsolin? It's a lot of depth, and maybe even a lot of high ceiling, but it's also incredibly risky. You can't say they *won't* win with these guys but I'd be a lot happier if they could swing a deal for Clevinger. Or frankly even Price! (Let's face it, taking Betts in exchange for Price's salary and tossing in a couple of non-elite prospects is the kind of deal that seems tailor made for Friedman.) I think it'd be ok to have back-end starter Price if there's a chance we get 2018 playoffs Price as well.
Maybe it will be addition by subtraction for the Dodgers and they'll be better, maybe even get over the hump. Most other teams have more holes to fill/less depth and options still than the Dodgers have even now.
I doubt it. I mean, I don't think losing Ryu means we're going to see someone shine that wouldn't have otherwise. If May/Gonsolin/Urias end up setting the MLB on fire it won't be because Ryu leaving created an opportunity. All those guys are going to get chances in 2020 regardless. If one or more of them step up it'll be be coincidence (and because they earn it, of course).
Who signs Donaldson at this point?
Supposedly, addi9ng a fourth year is the key, and that's not a good baseball decision (even three years is stretching it, it would seem, based on his injury history and advanced age. ) He could always turn out to be lucky/good enough to prove everyone wrong, but being stuck with an albatross at 3rd for the last two years of the deal puts teams in a
Ken Oberkfell position that no one wants to be in (reduced or next to no power at a key power position, causing a net drain on the team's lineup). Not sure the Braves are going to have much choice, and word is that they will have last right of refusal, but this deal makes me very nervous for all the wrong reasons.
![[Image: cd497fc4d2f249309692de2f90aca3f2_front.jpg]](https://kronozio.blob.core.windows.net/images/card/cd497fc4d2f249309692de2f90aca3f2_front.jpg)
Braves may kick the tires on Nolan Arenado of the Rockies, but that's also a problematic, and very expensive contract. Bryant's contract uncertainty makes and potential trade for him a bad risk as well.
Much as it pains me to say, Braves' most pragmatic move may be to go with Riley/Carmago and hope one/both of them can platoon into enough of a replacement for Donaldson not to be too much of a downgrade and let Donaldson torpedo someone else's payroll.
(12-11-2019 11:21 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-11-2019 10:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]Boras is gonna exceed $1B in deals this off season alone.
he's at
With Ryu at $80M and Keuchel at $55M, he's at $1.013B
(12-23-2019 05:22 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2019 05:11 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2019 02:31 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (12-22-2019 11:24 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Ryu to the Blue Jays- 4/80
Sounds about right. I don't think the Dodgers were every really in on Ryu despite what people are saying. They know his history and I'm guessing they weren't willing to go more than 3 and there was no way Boras would take that. Heard Ryu wanted to come back but I just don't think there was going to be a way.
We'll see how this shakes out now. Does Friedman want to proceed with Buehler/Kershaw/Maeda/Urias/May/Stripling/Gonsolin? It's a lot of depth, and maybe even a lot of high ceiling, but it's also incredibly risky. You can't say they *won't* win with these guys but I'd be a lot happier if they could swing a deal for Clevinger. Or frankly even Price! (Let's face it, taking Betts in exchange for Price's salary and tossing in a couple of non-elite prospects is the kind of deal that seems tailor made for Friedman.) I think it'd be ok to have back-end starter Price if there's a chance we get 2018 playoffs Price as well.
Maybe it will be addition by subtraction for the Dodgers and they'll be better, maybe even get over the hump. Most other teams have more holes to fill/less depth and options still than the Dodgers have even now.
I doubt it. I mean, I don't think losing Ryu means we're going to see someone shine that wouldn't have otherwise. If May/Gonsolin/Urias end up setting the MLB on fire it won't be because Ryu leaving created an opportunity. All those guys are going to get chances in 2020 regardless. If one or more of them step up it'll be be coincidence (and because they earn it, of course).
Yeah, but your rotation is still pretty darn good even without him. At least, it gives the Braves fits. And your organization still has lots more depth and your losses are more balanced than many other teams'. I know it's hard to see when your team is so good, but you've still got quite an elite team there, and dangerous to face all around as well. You'd have to suffer several more losses and some big injuries before you'd be in any danger to lose your place. Maybe will be a little more competition in NL West next year, but Dodgers are by far still the favorites, and rightly so.
(12-23-2019 05:28 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]Braves may kick the tires on Nolan Arenado of the Rockies, but that's also a problematic, and very expensive contract. Bryant's contract uncertainty makes and potential trade for him a bad risk as well.
Depends on the ask, right? By every account I've seen, Bryant's gonna lose his hearing and will not be a free agent. Either one of these guys would be a great get. There have been rumors the Dodgers are interested in either, but i think there is zero chance Rockies deal Arenado within the division and it sounds like the Dodgers are just much more focused on Lindor or Betts.
(12-23-2019 05:34 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2019 05:28 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]Braves may kick the tires on Nolan Arenado of the Rockies, but that's also a problematic, and very expensive contract. Bryant's contract uncertainty makes and potential trade for him a bad risk as well.
Depends on the ask, right? By every account I've seen, Bryant's gonna lose his hearing and will not be a free agent. Either one of these guys would be a great get. There have been rumors the Dodgers are interested in either, but i think there is zero chance Rockies deal Arenado within the division and it sounds like the Dodgers are just much more focused on Lindor or Betts.
Trust me on one thing: judges sometimes do the unexpected, so until it's over, no matter what people think/feel/say it doesn't mean squat.
I'd like Bryant at the right price, and by that I'm more concerned with the player(s) traded than the money. I would sure as hell never give Fried/Anderson or Soroka for them. Might have been willing to give them Teheran if we had held him for trade purposes. Not even with two years left--Bryant needs to sign an immediate extension to make a good trade work out.
wow saw on MLBTR that the last Boras guy to sign with the Blue Jays was Bill Caudill back in 1985. Signed a 2/2.37M deal.
Twins get Homer Bailey and Rich Hill..... 10M guaranteed and Hill has 9.5M in incentives.
Just not sure Donaldson's worth 4 years. Not just his age, but his injury history. I think whoever signs him is going to greatly regret the last two years of his contract...and if he gets hurt bad and is out for long stretches, they'll regret the whole thing. I like the guy, but this potential deal screams "buyer beware." Even three years looked like a stretch.
I understand guy wants to be paid--he'[s not really had a big long-term deal before, and this is his last chance. Too many iffy things on it. Maybe better off letting him be someone else's problem. But we'll see. Braves want him bad, so does Nationals. One team will win, others will lose. But not sure if that will be the signing team or the one(s) who avoid it.
Well...Braves can forget about Donaldson, LOL! The Braves signed veteran infielder Pete Kozma. The longtime Cardinal has just a .215/.278/.291 career line (54 wRC+) in parts of seven MLB seasons. Makes Austin Riley look better already!
so Nats have signed a ton here.... Starlin Castro, Eric Thames, Will Harris(who gave up the homer to Howie in the 7th inning), and Daniel Hudson. Nats pen is going to be so much better than it was last year... Might actually be a good one... Lineup not as good w/o Rendon- but it's a lot deeper.
NL East is gonna be a ***** this year.