02-16-2021, 01:21 PM
(02-16-2021 12:59 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: [ -> ](02-16-2021 12:29 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote: [ -> ](02-16-2021 12:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting reading the back-and-forth here.
Bottom line to me - why are we in this fix?
Lad seems to blaming gas more than wind.
Tanq the opposite.
As the proud possessor of land with an enbridge pipoeline crossing it (and another with another comany no yet mentioned here), and as a former owner of three gas wells on same property, I will just point out some anecdotal evidence. The operators stopped operating when the price of gas fell to a point of not bring in enough $$ to cover expenses. After a certain period of time not operating, under the lease I had the right to ask that the wells be removed. I wanted to enhance the real estate value of the land. They pulled the wells. If the wells were still in the ground, they could be producing today - but they are not.
Never seen a pipeline freeze up, but since there are sections above ground, I guess it happens.
What I am seeing as an electricity consumer is that the rolling blackouts are getting worse. Last one was 10 hours off after 4 hours on. Whether the fault is in the wind or the gas, we were not prepared for this unique event. meanwhile the recording keeps telling me outages of up to an hour have been authorized.
To the bolded - bingo! I'd argue we're in this fix because the power grid was not sufficiently winterized for this event. The likelihood of this deep of a freeze was so small, that it likely wasn't cost effective to make the proper preparations required to maintain sufficient power generation.
This is a failure of the entire energy system that ERCOT is managing, and wind is NOT the lynch pin here (that's been my main point of contention). Like I said, if wind was going at 100% of capacity, there would still be a demand shortage.
Gas prices are up as supplies dropped (well heads and infrastructure have frozen) and I've read that gas prices have skyrocketed because of the lack of supply.
Quote:After physical delivery gas prices hit $600 per million British thermal units in Oklahoma this past weekend, the commodity is now trading at $500 per mmBtu at two Midcontinent hubs, Bloomberg reports, with prices at a third hub at $300 per mmBtu.
Normally, gas trades at about $3 per mmBtu, but the wave of Arctic cold weather sweeping across the middle of the United States has boosted demand for energy massively and has already led to blackouts in some parts of the country, notably in Texas.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/G...kouts.html
A rare bingo from Lad! I am honored. I started to call this a 500 year event, but I did not want to start a segue into global warming.
Yep, the old supply-demand factor. prices went down due to fracking and the opening of other fields. I wonder if the antifracking people and the antipipeline people will pay any attention to this demonstration of secondary and tertiary factors on the lives of real people
My guess is that it doesn't. Like I said earlier in the back and forth with Tanq, I think the biggest way this event connects to the viability of wind, is that it clearly shows the need for an alternative for baseflow and surge capacity to thermal generation if people really want to get rid of O&G. But if we have a narrative trying to argue that wind was really to blame, this very real criticism of wind energy will be ignored.
And since there aren't great alternatives to support wind in the way it needs to, since nuclear has such an unfortunate stigma around it, the best option right now is likely natural gas.
I wonder in what ways ERCOT will respond to this issue. I can't imagine it will be business as usual on the opposite end of this. But then again, Texas has dragged its feet on making adjustments to its SOPs after natural disasters since Ike hit...