CSNbbs

Interesting take...

(06-25-2019 07:00 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting take...

The fulcrum of the next wave of realignment has never been what the Big 12 or AAC will do but what the Big Ten, SEC and possibly the Pac 12 and ACC might do. Anything the Big 12 does will be in reaction to one or more of the more-stable conferences poaching its teams, and the AAC's moves will be in reaction to whatever moves the Big 12 makes.

The Big 12 and AAC have as much ability to stop realignment writ large as I do stopping a wave from crashing onto the shore by pointing to it and yelling "go back!"

Yes.

(06-25-2019 07:00 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting take...

Its funny--because Ive heard people read the tea leaves of the UConn move in the exact opposite manner---They theorize that UConn sees a big wave of realignment coming and did not think they would be picked becasue of thier poor football performance. They didnt want to be stuck in the AAC if Cinci, Temple, Memphis, Houston, get poached. So you can kinda use the Uconn move to suggest either point of view if you frame it right.

(06-25-2019 07:11 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: [ -> ]Yes.

If the CCG rules remove divisonless round robin rule, yes. Which I think will happen with the conferences required to at least 9 conference games.

(06-25-2019 07:00 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting take...

Yep. Thank the Big 12. There's no reason to try to go to 12 teams now. Scheduling for 11 will be a pain, but the Big Ten did it for years without any major issues.
We can argue about what teams would be good for the AAC (I still think USM belongs), but at the end of the day, if you're not losing money by losing a member, you're adding value. It's 100% about dollars and cents rather than what's good for a game or the fans. The AAC was a loosely-aligned smattering of P5 strivers from the get go anyway. The conference's history and existence is proof that college athletics is all about the money rather than the fans.
I think you'll still see plenty of realignment, but it'll be centered around basketball.

There is no reason to rush into anything.

Anybody that the Big 12 would consider adding will be there in 4 years
Anybody that the AAC would consider adding will be there in 4 years



Candidates could strengthen their cases, or weaken them.

Imagine if say, Buffalo manages to compete for the G5 spot in three of the next 4 years, getting it once, while at the same time making four straight NCAA tourneys, including a couple Sweet 16's. They would be looked on far different than now.

The opposite could happen. ODU could have 4 straight losing seasons in both basketball and football.

It's over until June 2025. The Oklahoma will ... do something we'll find what in 2024

Well, maybe not completely. Conference USA 's contract with CBS is only 5 years and runs out in June 2023, and it is underwhelming. It is a collection of unhappy campers and could well bust apart -- not much to lose, minimal TV revenue, single bid basketball conference. None of the schools hold delusion belief in a P5 future, so a new arrangement within G5 is something many are open to. Such a break up/split could have a significant ripple effect across G5. (IMO that break up is more "when" than "if")

(06-25-2019 07:30 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]It's over until June 2025. The Oklahoma will ... do something we'll find what in 2024

Well, maybe not completely. Conference USA 's contract with CBS is only 5 years and runs out in June 2023, and it is underwhelming. It is a collection of unhappy campers and could well bust apart -- not much to lose, minimal TV revenue, single bid basketball conference. None of the schools hold delusion belief in a P5 future, so a new arrangement within G5 is something many are open to. Such a break up/split could have a significant ripple effect across G5. (IMO that break up is more "when" than "if")

Essentially yes. Probably hear stuff earlier than 2024 but who knows.

(06-25-2019 07:00 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting take...

What is dead may never die.

(06-25-2019 07:00 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting take...

No, I think it's just that UConn doesn't even see themselves getting added to a gutted Big XII. They fell behind Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF just from their own conference let alone a few MWC schools like CSU, Boise and San Diego State. I still think 4 to 6 XII teams can be gone right before all the contracts run out. It's just that UConn doesn't want to risk being left behind yet again.

Nope realignment is never over. It will pop up again.

(06-25-2019 07:52 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-25-2019 07:00 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting take...

No, I think it's just that UConn doesn't even see themselves getting added to a gutted Big XII. They fell behind Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF just from their own conference let alone a few MWC schools like CSU, Boise and San Diego State. I still think 4 to 6 XII teams can be gone right before all the contracts run out. It's just that UConn doesn't want to risk being left behind yet again.

I think they were angling for the ACC or maybe B1G. Neither seem all that interested in adding anyone, let alone a program with bad football and struggling basketball. Both conferences would require a football presence that I don't think UConn's geographically capable of providing, or markets that are already covered by current membership. So if you can't make it as a football school and you have Rutgers, Cuse, and BC rendering your location useless from an eyeballs standpoint, why not de-emphasize football and try your luck with a bunch of basketball-first privates you have history with?
Even with WV, I doubt the Big 12 has any interest in becoming P5's island of misfit toys, as their non-expansion vote indicated. So many G5 schools and conferences are at a crossroads now.

1. Realignment has been the norm in college football throughout its history. Inactivity is the anomaly.

2. Schools opting out of the spending war will trigger adjustments.

3. More money (especially significantly more money) will trigger adjustments.

4. As factors that determine payouts change realignment will be triggered. Right now content is the only sure bet for larger payouts and for long term security for conferences, more so than the market model which is still viable for conference networks. As content additions are sought and streaming increases (which augments the need for content games) realignment will be triggered.

5. As extraneous factors such as the numbers of content games, and conference games, are slowly bargained away for incremental increases in revenue, leverage will become a greater need for conferences and the more schools you represent the greater leverage you will have. This may force a confederation of conferences, or simply trigger more realignment.

So no. Realignment is not over and never will be because all it is is a reaction to changing conditions in the marketplace.

(06-25-2019 07:27 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]There is no reason to rush into anything.

Anybody that the Big 12 would consider adding will be there in 4 years
Anybody that the AAC would consider adding will be there in 4 years

Candidates could strengthen their cases, or weaken them.

Agree on these points. Expansion will likely hit the "pause" button until 2025. If anything, the AAC has an open slot that will rise in value over time for those not named the P5. Let's see what cream rises consistently to the top. However, you wonder if there will be other programs that will make a strictly financial move to survive/focus primarily on either hoops or football like UConn did.

(06-25-2019 08:30 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-25-2019 07:27 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]There is no reason to rush into anything.

Anybody that the Big 12 would consider adding will be there in 4 years
Anybody that the AAC would consider adding will be there in 4 years

Candidates could strengthen their cases, or weaken them.

Agree on these points. Expansion will likely hit the "pause" button until 2025. If anything, the AAC has an open slot that will rise in value over time for those not named the P5. Let's see what cream rises consistently to the top. However, you wonder if there will be other programs that will make a strictly financial move to survive/focus primarily on either hoops or football like UConn did.

Open spots don't sit empty for long. The audition process has already happened while no one realized it was happening which is actually the best way to do it. That 12th spot will be filled as UConn leaves.

This UConn rejoining the BE could very well be the last realignment move of the decade.

UConn is now prepared at the drop of a hat to go FB-only to XII or ACC if it had to in the case of a P4 reshuffle.

(06-25-2019 07:52 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-25-2019 07:00 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting take...

No, I think it's just that UConn doesn't even see themselves getting added to a gutted Big XII. They fell behind Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF just from their own conference let alone a few MWC schools like CSU, Boise and San Diego State. I still think 4 to 6 XII teams can be gone right before all the contracts run out. It's just that UConn doesn't want to risk being left behind yet again.

I think reading the tea leaves in a UCONN specific way is correct. They’d need a ton to break right to get any P5 bid and the debt they’d take on is too big trying to keep up in FB and traveling.

I think it’s premature to argue anything beyond that.

(06-25-2019 08:36 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-25-2019 08:30 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-25-2019 07:27 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]There is no reason to rush into anything.

Anybody that the Big 12 would consider adding will be there in 4 years
Anybody that the AAC would consider adding will be there in 4 years

Candidates could strengthen their cases, or weaken them.

Agree on these points. Expansion will likely hit the "pause" button until 2025. If anything, the AAC has an open slot that will rise in value over time for those not named the P5. Let's see what cream rises consistently to the top. However, you wonder if there will be other programs that will make a strictly financial move to survive/focus primarily on either hoops or football like UConn did.

Open spots don't sit empty for long. The audition process has already happened while no one realized it was happening which is actually the best way to do it. That 12th spot will be filled as UConn leaves.

Define how long...there's no early indication that the AAC schools are going to support adding a program just to fill a spot when UConn exits.

At the P5 level, realignment is mostly dead for now. Another round will start depending on OU's decision at the end of the B12 GOR in 2025.

At the G5 level, the ball is in the AAC's court. If the AAC chooses to replace UConn, a round of musical chairs will ensue. If not, the rest of the G5 stays pat for a short while.

I'm not sure if the MAC or C-USA will want to make a play for UConn and UMass football. The two New England schools are more likely to stay independent for now.