(06-10-2019 01:22 PM)SoMs Eagle Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty soon Bezos will be sitting in his office surrounded by a million robots, no workers and a trillion dollars cash money. With no one to buy his junk.....
Definitely not "pretty soon", but yeah, at some point in the distant future someone is going to have to figure out ways for regular humans to make money (guessing drugs and hookers start getting more popular). Bezos will eventually die or flame out and Amazon will eventually tank like everyone else does.
I can't recall if I've mentioned this story or not, but Bezos likes to tell it at his speeches. He envisions a massive Amazon distribution center in the future to have two employees --- a security guard who is there to make sure people don't break into the center, and a watchdog to make sure the security guard doesn't fall asleep.
(06-09-2019 12:47 PM)king king Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 06:45 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 08:12 PM)WKUYG Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 07:34 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: [ -> ]for the cost of 1 truck plus fuel, Amazon can buy and deploy numerous drones. I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but I believe they're more accurate than the counterpoints.... especially in that a drone flies point to point with no stops or turns and far less insurance. Of course there are places where a truck makes more sense, but there are a whole lot of places where a drone makes a lot of sense.... Mostly rural/remote or very high density. Try driving a truck around San Francisco
How do you know insurance is far less? A drone can go from point to point but it also carries 1 package then must return for another one. In that same 30 minute round trip the truck has dropped off 5 or more packages. The truck is loaded with packages and its dropping packages off to and from the 15 mile mark.
While a drone is cheaper those pictured would be in the 5k range if not more. Especially with the programs needed to run them. I would bet you are not getting 100k miles on a drone. The person repairing the drone is making twice as much as the person putting brakes or changing flats on the truck.
There might be areas where a drone works better but not widely. Weather will be a huge disadvantage for a drone. Not only getting to and from, But keeping the package safe
Respectfully, you don't KNOW any of this, it's all conjecture. Amazon is deploying this technology and they aren't basing it off of conjecture. You don't think they factored in every possible variable before beta testing these devices and their usefulness and then re-tested them again before launching?
It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
I dont understand your last sentence. Following science is exactly how things get done in large corporations like Amazon. Their entire model is build around the sciences: Computer science. Supply chain science. Transportation science. Automation. The list goes on.
The CEO gets an idea in his head and tells people to do it and they usually end up doing it even if it doesn't make sense. Sometimes they will convince him otherwise. But most just march in lockstep and take it even beyond.
Often in big corporations you get people several levels down telling you the CEO wants this.
You have to figure out how much of it is the particular person wants it, the particular person is expanding on what the CEO actually wants (whether they realize it or not) or whether the CEO really wants it. If the CEO has good subordinates, they will try to convince him poor ideas really don't work. If he doesn't, they will follow through no matter what.
(06-10-2019 02:45 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]Often in big corporations you get people several levels down telling you the CEO wants this.
You have to figure out how much of it is the particular person wants it, the particular person is expanding on what the CEO actually wants (whether they realize it or not) or whether the CEO really wants it. If the CEO has good subordinates, they will try to convince him poor ideas really don't work. If he doesn't, they will follow through no matter what.
Kind of like what happened, in a different context, with hiding the USS John McCain the other day. Somebody several levels down said Trump wanted it, but cooler heads prevailed.
(06-10-2019 02:41 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:47 PM)king king Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 06:45 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 08:12 PM)WKUYG Wrote: [ -> ]How do you know insurance is far less? A drone can go from point to point but it also carries 1 package then must return for another one. In that same 30 minute round trip the truck has dropped off 5 or more packages. The truck is loaded with packages and its dropping packages off to and from the 15 mile mark.
While a drone is cheaper those pictured would be in the 5k range if not more. Especially with the programs needed to run them. I would bet you are not getting 100k miles on a drone. The person repairing the drone is making twice as much as the person putting brakes or changing flats on the truck.
There might be areas where a drone works better but not widely. Weather will be a huge disadvantage for a drone. Not only getting to and from, But keeping the package safe
Respectfully, you don't KNOW any of this, it's all conjecture. Amazon is deploying this technology and they aren't basing it off of conjecture. You don't think they factored in every possible variable before beta testing these devices and their usefulness and then re-tested them again before launching?
It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
I dont understand your last sentence. Following science is exactly how things get done in large corporations like Amazon. Their entire model is build around the sciences: Computer science. Supply chain science. Transportation science. Automation. The list goes on.
The CEO gets an idea in his head and tells people to do it and they usually end up doing it even if it doesn't make sense. Sometimes they will convince him otherwise. But most just march in lockstep and take it even beyond.
Every large company has R&D money to piss away on their pet projects. His dream of distribution centers with no employees is more attainable than developing a drone delivery mechanism for individual packages that that is going to save money and time vs a driver and a truck. If you can build a drone that can carry a fully loaded container... ie pick it up from the port and fly it to a distribution center... then that would be more efficient than the barge/rail/truck system currently being deployed. Then again, I've been hearing about robots doing everything since the early 80s. Hell, Rocky Balboa had a robot housekeeper. The big challenge is making a product that will sell at a price point where you will earn a profit.
(06-10-2019 02:54 PM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 02:41 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:47 PM)king king Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 06:45 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ]Respectfully, you don't KNOW any of this, it's all conjecture. Amazon is deploying this technology and they aren't basing it off of conjecture. You don't think they factored in every possible variable before beta testing these devices and their usefulness and then re-tested them again before launching?
It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
I dont understand your last sentence. Following science is exactly how things get done in large corporations like Amazon. Their entire model is build around the sciences: Computer science. Supply chain science. Transportation science. Automation. The list goes on.
The CEO gets an idea in his head and tells people to do it and they usually end up doing it even if it doesn't make sense. Sometimes they will convince him otherwise. But most just march in lockstep and take it even beyond.
Every large company has R&D money to piss away on their pet projects. His dream of distribution centers with no employees is more attainable than developing a drone delivery mechanism for individual packages that that is going to save money and time vs a driver and a truck. If you can build a drone that can carry a fully loaded container... ie pick it up from the port and fly it to a distribution center... then that would be more efficient than the barge/rail/truck system currently being deployed. Then again, I've been hearing about robots doing everything since the early 80s. Hell, Rocky Balboa had a robot housekeeper. The big challenge is making a product that will sell at a price point where you will earn a profit.
And they actually could do personal jetpacks. But the price and insurance as well as the cost to get FAA approval....
(06-10-2019 03:57 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 02:54 PM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 02:41 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:47 PM)king king Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
I dont understand your last sentence. Following science is exactly how things get done in large corporations like Amazon. Their entire model is build around the sciences: Computer science. Supply chain science. Transportation science. Automation. The list goes on.
The CEO gets an idea in his head and tells people to do it and they usually end up doing it even if it doesn't make sense. Sometimes they will convince him otherwise. But most just march in lockstep and take it even beyond.
Every large company has R&D money to piss away on their pet projects. His dream of distribution centers with no employees is more attainable than developing a drone delivery mechanism for individual packages that that is going to save money and time vs a driver and a truck. If you can build a drone that can carry a fully loaded container... ie pick it up from the port and fly it to a distribution center... then that would be more efficient than the barge/rail/truck system currently being deployed. Then again, I've been hearing about robots doing everything since the early 80s. Hell, Rocky Balboa had a robot housekeeper. The big challenge is making a product that will sell at a price point where you will earn a profit.
And they actually could do personal jetpacks. But the price and insurance as well as the cost to get FAA approval....
I’ve never understood how those things don’t burn a hole in the backseat of your pants......
(06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 06:45 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 08:12 PM)WKUYG Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 07:34 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-07-2019 11:34 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]A drone carries 1 package at a time. A 5,000 pound truck can cover an entire town or small city. I wouldn't be so sure that the drone use less fuel and I doubt that very often the avoidance of traffic lights is quicker or more efficient than making hundreds of trips. It certainly doesn't meet economies of scale. You can't get more logistically efficient than a truck considering it's capacity and ability to get anywhere. This has to be nothing more than a marketing ploy.
for the cost of 1 truck plus fuel, Amazon can buy and deploy numerous drones. I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but I believe they're more accurate than the counterpoints.... especially in that a drone flies point to point with no stops or turns and far less insurance. Of course there are places where a truck makes more sense, but there are a whole lot of places where a drone makes a lot of sense.... Mostly rural/remote or very high density. Try driving a truck around San Francisco
How do you know insurance is far less? A drone can go from point to point but it also carries 1 package then must return for another one. In that same 30 minute round trip the truck has dropped off 5 or more packages. The truck is loaded with packages and its dropping packages off to and from the 15 mile mark.
While a drone is cheaper those pictured would be in the 5k range if not more. Especially with the programs needed to run them. I would bet you are not getting 100k miles on a drone. The person repairing the drone is making twice as much as the person putting brakes or changing flats on the truck.
There might be areas where a drone works better but not widely. Weather will be a huge disadvantage for a drone. Not only getting to and from, But keeping the package safe
Respectfully, you don't KNOW any of this, it's all conjecture. Amazon is deploying this technology and they aren't basing it off of conjecture. You don't think they factored in every possible variable before beta testing these devices and their usefulness and then re-tested them again before launching?
It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
This has nothing to do with faith of any kind, unbridled or otherwise. It has to do with resistance to change and innovation as exhibited here. I've seen, as has anyone of a similar age, changes that no one thought possible when I was born. We've seen changes over the last 20 years we barely dreamed of in 1999. I'm not arguing for or against Amazon using drones. I'm not a drone expert nor am I a logistics expert. What I am is the product of a corporation who spends billions in R&D for new cutting edge technologies and some of their products are mind blowing when viewed from 20 years ago.
Amazon has killed it in almost everything they've ever tried to the point they are now a global behemoth. If they think drone technology is suitable for delivering packages and they are spending millions starting it up, who am I to say they are wrong? I'm sure they have engineers on their payroll who know far more about this stuff than anyone here so I'll take them at their word that they can make it work, at least until they show us they can't.
(06-10-2019 06:32 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 06:45 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 08:12 PM)WKUYG Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 07:34 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: [ -> ]for the cost of 1 truck plus fuel, Amazon can buy and deploy numerous drones. I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but I believe they're more accurate than the counterpoints.... especially in that a drone flies point to point with no stops or turns and far less insurance. Of course there are places where a truck makes more sense, but there are a whole lot of places where a drone makes a lot of sense.... Mostly rural/remote or very high density. Try driving a truck around San Francisco
How do you know insurance is far less? A drone can go from point to point but it also carries 1 package then must return for another one. In that same 30 minute round trip the truck has dropped off 5 or more packages. The truck is loaded with packages and its dropping packages off to and from the 15 mile mark.
While a drone is cheaper those pictured would be in the 5k range if not more. Especially with the programs needed to run them. I would bet you are not getting 100k miles on a drone. The person repairing the drone is making twice as much as the person putting brakes or changing flats on the truck.
There might be areas where a drone works better but not widely. Weather will be a huge disadvantage for a drone. Not only getting to and from, But keeping the package safe
Respectfully, you don't KNOW any of this, it's all conjecture. Amazon is deploying this technology and they aren't basing it off of conjecture. You don't think they factored in every possible variable before beta testing these devices and their usefulness and then re-tested them again before launching?
It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
This has nothing to do with faith of any kind, unbridled or otherwise. It has to do with resistance to change and innovation as exhibited here. I've seen, as has anyone of a similar age, changes that no one thought possible when I was born. We've seen changes over the last 20 years we barely dreamed of in 1999. I'm not arguing for or against Amazon using drones. I'm not a drone expert nor am I a logistics expert. What I am is the product of a corporation who spends billions in R&D for new cutting edge technologies and some of their products are mind blowing when viewed from 20 years ago.
Amazon has killed it in almost everything they've ever tried to the point they are now a global behemoth. If they think drone technology is suitable for delivering packages and they are spending millions starting it up, who am I to say they are wrong? I'm sure they have engineers on their payroll who know far more about this stuff than anyone here so I'll take them at their word that they can make it work, at least until they show us they can't.
The problem is they've been saying this for years and every so often float another story saying it is happening within months. A good 10 years it has been going on and they still aren't delivering squat via drone, but they continue to invest in new trucks. At what point will you admit they showed us they can't do it? Another year? 5 years? 10 years? Maybe we will finally see that ice melt and sea level taking over the East coast first. I think Bezos is adopting the cold war strategy and using misdirection to bankrupt the competition. I get that you have stars in your eyes, but show me the money.
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
(06-10-2019 06:57 PM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 06:32 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 06:45 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 08:12 PM)WKUYG Wrote: [ -> ]How do you know insurance is far less? A drone can go from point to point but it also carries 1 package then must return for another one. In that same 30 minute round trip the truck has dropped off 5 or more packages. The truck is loaded with packages and its dropping packages off to and from the 15 mile mark.
While a drone is cheaper those pictured would be in the 5k range if not more. Especially with the programs needed to run them. I would bet you are not getting 100k miles on a drone. The person repairing the drone is making twice as much as the person putting brakes or changing flats on the truck.
There might be areas where a drone works better but not widely. Weather will be a huge disadvantage for a drone. Not only getting to and from, But keeping the package safe
Respectfully, you don't KNOW any of this, it's all conjecture. Amazon is deploying this technology and they aren't basing it off of conjecture. You don't think they factored in every possible variable before beta testing these devices and their usefulness and then re-tested them again before launching?
It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
This has nothing to do with faith of any kind, unbridled or otherwise. It has to do with resistance to change and innovation as exhibited here. I've seen, as has anyone of a similar age, changes that no one thought possible when I was born. We've seen changes over the last 20 years we barely dreamed of in 1999. I'm not arguing for or against Amazon using drones. I'm not a drone expert nor am I a logistics expert. What I am is the product of a corporation who spends billions in R&D for new cutting edge technologies and some of their products are mind blowing when viewed from 20 years ago.
Amazon has killed it in almost everything they've ever tried to the point they are now a global behemoth. If they think drone technology is suitable for delivering packages and they are spending millions starting it up, who am I to say they are wrong? I'm sure they have engineers on their payroll who know far more about this stuff than anyone here so I'll take them at their word that they can make it work, at least until they show us they can't.
The problem is they've been saying this for years and every so often float another story saying it is happening within months. A good 10 years it has been going on and they still aren't delivering squat via drone, but they continue to invest in new trucks. At what point will you admit they showed us they can't do it? Another year? 5 years? 10 years? Maybe we will finally see that ice melt and sea level taking over the East coast first. I think Bezos is adopting the cold war strategy and using misdirection to bankrupt the competition. I get that you have stars in your eyes, but show me the money.
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Lol, I'm not some awestruck young idealist you know. I'm not starstruck about anything, especially anything Bezos. I can see the handwriting on the wall and one day this - and other what we now consider radical technologies - will be as commonplace as an iPhone 6.
I doubt, as has already been mentioned by sharper minds than mine, that anyone is planning on getting rid of truck routes any time soon but there will be a market that will make this technology cost effective somewhere. Whether that's in rural areas for the one single package that would cost a truck more to deliver or some other application, it's coming. If not Amazon then Walmart or some other big company, like UPS maybe. Oh wait...
(06-10-2019 06:57 PM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 06:32 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 06:45 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2019 08:12 PM)WKUYG Wrote: [ -> ]How do you know insurance is far less? A drone can go from point to point but it also carries 1 package then must return for another one. In that same 30 minute round trip the truck has dropped off 5 or more packages. The truck is loaded with packages and its dropping packages off to and from the 15 mile mark.
While a drone is cheaper those pictured would be in the 5k range if not more. Especially with the programs needed to run them. I would bet you are not getting 100k miles on a drone. The person repairing the drone is making twice as much as the person putting brakes or changing flats on the truck.
There might be areas where a drone works better but not widely. Weather will be a huge disadvantage for a drone. Not only getting to and from, But keeping the package safe
Respectfully, you don't KNOW any of this, it's all conjecture. Amazon is deploying this technology and they aren't basing it off of conjecture. You don't think they factored in every possible variable before beta testing these devices and their usefulness and then re-tested them again before launching?
It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
This has nothing to do with faith of any kind, unbridled or otherwise. It has to do with resistance to change and innovation as exhibited here. I've seen, as has anyone of a similar age, changes that no one thought possible when I was born. We've seen changes over the last 20 years we barely dreamed of in 1999. I'm not arguing for or against Amazon using drones. I'm not a drone expert nor am I a logistics expert. What I am is the product of a corporation who spends billions in R&D for new cutting edge technologies and some of their products are mind blowing when viewed from 20 years ago.
Amazon has killed it in almost everything they've ever tried to the point they are now a global behemoth. If they think drone technology is suitable for delivering packages and they are spending millions starting it up, who am I to say they are wrong? I'm sure they have engineers on their payroll who know far more about this stuff than anyone here so I'll take them at their word that they can make it work, at least until they show us they can't.
The problem is they've been saying this for years and every so often float another story saying it is happening within months. A good 10 years it has been going on and they still aren't delivering squat via drone, but they continue to invest in new trucks. At what point will you admit they showed us they can't do it? Another year? 5 years? 10 years? Maybe we will finally see that ice melt and sea level taking over the East coast first. I think Bezos is adopting the cold war strategy and using misdirection to bankrupt the competition. I get that you have stars in your eyes, but show me the money.
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
It does take a long time to develop technology. Be it drone, Arpanet, or mechanized war suits for soldiers (currently in development). Look at the pace of change as the barometer. Arpanet took from 1967 to be explained as a concept until the early 90's for it to come to fruition as the Internet. But come it did. The first mobile phone was demonstrated in 1973 and it took it until roughly 2012 to become the smartphone of today. The exponential nature of technology ensures that what is in its infancy today will be commonplace here in the next handful of years, and will then most likely be already obsolete.
Of one thing I'm sure, and that's that Bezos is the richest man in the world (by more than 50% over the next richest person...Bezos is 152B and Gates is 101B) off of a company that didn't exist in its present form until just over 20 years ago. He has a proven track record of being at the forefront of trends in his business and in others (AWS anyone?). Again, it's not starry eyed to look to that as proof that he's more trustworthy in both making money and in innovating than ANY person on this board.
Will drone delivery ever fully supplant the truck for every consumer? Most likely no. But in a congested city populated by folks that live in high rises condos, it can for sure deliver to the roof there to be received by the consumer. It also applies to numerous suburban neighborhoods, especially the newer ones as it's not the thing to keep older trees anymore. This will stick and if nothing else it'll increase their market share over their competitors.
And, if the solar powered drone story wasn't believable enough for you, here is another potential option. With Amazon's patent for a "beehive" design building coming a few years ago, there's no telling how they might be planning to couple it with inductive coupling to not really even need batteries.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...092110.htm
From 2016
The technology uses inductive coupling, a concept initially demonstrated by inventor Nikola Tesla over 100 years ago. Two copper coils are tuned into one another, using electronics, which enables the wireless exchange of power at a certain frequency. Scientists have been experimenting with this technology for decades, but have not yet been able to wirelessly power flying technology.
Now, scientists from Imperial College London have removed the battery from an off-the-shelf mini-drone and demonstrated that they can wirelessly transfer power to it via inductive coupling. They believe their demonstration is the first to show how this wireless charging method can be efficiently done with a flying object like a drone, potentially paving the way for wider use of the technology.
To demonstrate their approach the researchers bought an off-the-shelf quadcopter drone, around 12 centimetres in diameter, and altered its electronics and removed its battery. They made a copper foil ring, which is a receiving antennae that encircles the drone's casing. On the ground, a transmitter device made out of a circuit board is connected to electronics and a power source, creating a magnetic field.
The drone's electronics are tuned or calibrated at the frequency of the magnetic field. When it flies into the magnetic field an alternating current (AC) voltage is induced in the receiving antenna and the drone's electronics convert it efficiently into a direct current (DC) voltage to power it.
(06-10-2019 08:49 PM)king king Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 06:57 PM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 06:32 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 06:45 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ]Respectfully, you don't KNOW any of this, it's all conjecture. Amazon is deploying this technology and they aren't basing it off of conjecture. You don't think they factored in every possible variable before beta testing these devices and their usefulness and then re-tested them again before launching?
It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
This has nothing to do with faith of any kind, unbridled or otherwise. It has to do with resistance to change and innovation as exhibited here. I've seen, as has anyone of a similar age, changes that no one thought possible when I was born. We've seen changes over the last 20 years we barely dreamed of in 1999. I'm not arguing for or against Amazon using drones. I'm not a drone expert nor am I a logistics expert. What I am is the product of a corporation who spends billions in R&D for new cutting edge technologies and some of their products are mind blowing when viewed from 20 years ago.
Amazon has killed it in almost everything they've ever tried to the point they are now a global behemoth. If they think drone technology is suitable for delivering packages and they are spending millions starting it up, who am I to say they are wrong? I'm sure they have engineers on their payroll who know far more about this stuff than anyone here so I'll take them at their word that they can make it work, at least until they show us they can't.
The problem is they've been saying this for years and every so often float another story saying it is happening within months. A good 10 years it has been going on and they still aren't delivering squat via drone, but they continue to invest in new trucks. At what point will you admit they showed us they can't do it? Another year? 5 years? 10 years? Maybe we will finally see that ice melt and sea level taking over the East coast first. I think Bezos is adopting the cold war strategy and using misdirection to bankrupt the competition. I get that you have stars in your eyes, but show me the money.
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
It does take a long time to develop technology. Be it drone, Arpanet, or mechanized war suits for soldiers (currently in development). Look at the pace of change as the barometer. Arpanet took from 1967 to be explained as a concept until the early 90's for it to come to fruition as the Internet. But come it did. The first mobile phone was demonstrated in 1973 and it took it until roughly 2012 to become the smartphone of today. The exponential nature of technology ensures that what is in its infancy today will be commonplace here in the next handful of years, and will then most likely be already obsolete.
Of one thing I'm sure, and that's that Bezos is the richest man in the world (by more than 50% over the next richest person...Bezos is 152B and Gates is 101B) off of a company that didn't exist in its present form until just over 20 years ago. He has a proven track record of being at the forefront of trends in his business and in others (AWS anyone?). Again, it's not starry eyed to look to that as proof that he's more trustworthy in both making money and in innovating than ANY person on this board.
Will drone delivery ever fully supplant the truck for every consumer? Most likely no. But in a congested city populated by folks that live in high rises condos, it can for sure deliver to the roof there to be received by the consumer. It also applies to numerous suburban neighborhoods, especially the newer ones as it's not the thing to keep older trees anymore. This will stick and if nothing else it'll increase their market share over their competitors.
The technology is old and I finally found a use for single package drone delivery that makes economic sense. Maybe one day Bezos will.
https://wtkr.com/2019/06/10/man-arrested...h-a-drone/
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(06-11-2019 06:39 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 08:49 PM)king king Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 06:57 PM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (06-10-2019 06:32 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote: [ -> ] (06-09-2019 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]It amazes me people keep having unbridled faith in experts.
Amazon may have it all figured out. But questioning whether a mammoth bureaucracy will get things right is pretty reasonable, even if their experts are right. Following science is not how decisions are made in large corporations.
This has nothing to do with faith of any kind, unbridled or otherwise. It has to do with resistance to change and innovation as exhibited here. I've seen, as has anyone of a similar age, changes that no one thought possible when I was born. We've seen changes over the last 20 years we barely dreamed of in 1999. I'm not arguing for or against Amazon using drones. I'm not a drone expert nor am I a logistics expert. What I am is the product of a corporation who spends billions in R&D for new cutting edge technologies and some of their products are mind blowing when viewed from 20 years ago.
Amazon has killed it in almost everything they've ever tried to the point they are now a global behemoth. If they think drone technology is suitable for delivering packages and they are spending millions starting it up, who am I to say they are wrong? I'm sure they have engineers on their payroll who know far more about this stuff than anyone here so I'll take them at their word that they can make it work, at least until they show us they can't.
The problem is they've been saying this for years and every so often float another story saying it is happening within months. A good 10 years it has been going on and they still aren't delivering squat via drone, but they continue to invest in new trucks. At what point will you admit they showed us they can't do it? Another year? 5 years? 10 years? Maybe we will finally see that ice melt and sea level taking over the East coast first. I think Bezos is adopting the cold war strategy and using misdirection to bankrupt the competition. I get that you have stars in your eyes, but show me the money.
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It does take a long time to develop technology. Be it drone, Arpanet, or mechanized war suits for soldiers (currently in development). Look at the pace of change as the barometer. Arpanet took from 1967 to be explained as a concept until the early 90's for it to come to fruition as the Internet. But come it did. The first mobile phone was demonstrated in 1973 and it took it until roughly 2012 to become the smartphone of today. The exponential nature of technology ensures that what is in its infancy today will be commonplace here in the next handful of years, and will then most likely be already obsolete.
Of one thing I'm sure, and that's that Bezos is the richest man in the world (by more than 50% over the next richest person...Bezos is 152B and Gates is 101B) off of a company that didn't exist in its present form until just over 20 years ago. He has a proven track record of being at the forefront of trends in his business and in others (AWS anyone?). Again, it's not starry eyed to look to that as proof that he's more trustworthy in both making money and in innovating than ANY person on this board.
Will drone delivery ever fully supplant the truck for every consumer? Most likely no. But in a congested city populated by folks that live in high rises condos, it can for sure deliver to the roof there to be received by the consumer. It also applies to numerous suburban neighborhoods, especially the newer ones as it's not the thing to keep older trees anymore. This will stick and if nothing else it'll increase their market share over their competitors.
The technology is old and I finally found a use for single package drone delivery that makes economic sense. Maybe one day Bezos will.
https://wtkr.com/2019/06/10/man-arrested...h-a-drone/
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HA! I love stupid people tricks.
I’m not entirely sold on this being practical for mass consumer delivery, 10 packages to the same cul-de-sac would take hours instead of minutes.
What I could see is replacing the B 2 B courier business in crowded cities. Bike couriers are alllllll over in olaces like DC, NYC, Francisco etc. also small car couriers for longer distances. Even with the advent of faxes, emails, virtual this and that there is still a lot of contractual stuff that requires a persons physical signature, delivery of just in time stuff etc.
Got a couple friends that have done very well in this niche business, first as workers, then as owners. Still going strong.
I could def see a market for this, there.
(06-11-2019 09:17 AM)JMUDunk Wrote: [ -> ]I’m not entirely sold on this being practical for mass consumer delivery, 10 packages to the same cul-de-sac would take hours instead of minutes.
What I could see is replacing the B 2 B courier business in crowded cities. Bike couriers are alllllll over in olaces like DC, NYC, Francisco etc. also small car couriers for longer distances. Even with the advent of faxes, emails, virtual this and that there is still a lot of contractual stuff that requires a persons physical signature, delivery of just in time stuff etc.
Got a couple friends that have done very well in this niche business, first as workers, then as owners. Still going strong.
I could def see a market for this, there.
I'm betting there are niche opportunities within Amazons own infrastructure as well. I doubt their intent is to completely replace their fleet of delivery vehicles with drones but there may be - likely are, else why invest in this at all - applications where this technology serves a need.
If this technology is foolishness then there are more than a few fools investing in it.
I don't think we are thinking big picture here.
Assume you have a self-driving truck full of packages. How does the truck unload the delivery?
Drone.
(06-11-2019 11:18 AM)Claw Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think we are thinking big picture here.
Assume you have a self-driving truck full of packages. How does the truck unload the delivery?
Drone.
See? There may indeed exist other applications for this.