05-27-2019, 01:15 AM
I think it's an interesting question.
Texas A&M was the first to bolt off to another league that wasn't Texas-centric. Whether anyone follows to the SEC is a question, but it would seem the future holds a time where the state's schools will be divided up. Logistically, that seems like the most likely outcome. Maybe more importantly, the networks won't want to go to a single league in order to have access to the huge and growing TX market.
Earlier today, ole Fluguar basically stated that Houston would get a Power 5 invite in the next round of realignment and the PAC was the likely suitor. He said a few other things(among them that the Big 12 got outfoxed by ESPN on negotiations for the recent CCG/ESPN+ deal), but I won't repeat the tweets here because people know where to find them if they want.
Anyway, let's presume for a moment that TCU ends up being a solid option for the SEC. I've always liked the idea and as long as Oklahoma is the other school then I think it makes a lot of sense.
Let me present that as a possibility because perhaps Texas has more leverage to drag their fellow state schools into the PAC. If they agreed to go to the PAC then they could basically take whoever they wanted. What if Texas Tech and Houston were accompanying them? I'll set aside the 4th member for a moment because there are several options, but a 16 team PAC with Texas is back in the game as far as strong revenue.
Could the networks benefit from this alignment?
I think ESPN's interest is piqued because there's a question of whether they would want the SEC to be unmatchable in revenue and content value. Would they aid the SEC at the expense of the Big Ten in helping OU into the SEC? I think that's reasonable and the SEC's interests are served by planting a flag in DFW. ESPN doesn't gain much by aiding the Big Ten with additions because a large portion of the key content will always go to FOX. Helping Texas into the SEC as well? On some level, it makes a lot of sense, but it would be out of character for ESPN to cede so much power to one of their properties. ESPN is a winner as long as they hold all the rights, but if the SEC decided to take their game elsewhere one day then ESPN has shot themselves in the foot. They'll have to pay more than they want in any open negotiation.
But is the PAC still a player?
Texas is still tied to ESPN through the LHN. This makes arranging their future a difficult thing because currently the SEC and ACC are the only leagues predominantly controlled by ESPN. I don't think the Big Ten is a legitimate option for a lot of reasons even if the money would be really good. The ACC does make some sense, but the travel would be difficult and they probably can't take any tagalongs because of the logistics. That and I think it's reasonable to conclude Notre Dame would not favor that move.
For ESPN, my feelings are that they would prefer to use Texas as a lure for the PAC. Recently, they made an offer to extend the PAC contract long term. While the deal they offered wasn't top notch, I do think it means ESPN is interested in controlling PAC content. It makes sense...they have an East Coast league, a Southern/Central Time Zone league, and it would be effective for marketing to have a West Coast league in the quiver. Whatever gives them flexibility for scheduling and excess content to put on ESPN+...I think that's what they are interested in for the foreseeable future.
Let's say a combo of Texas, Texas Tech, Houston, and Kansas was offered to the PAC along with more competitive payouts in exchange for control of the PAC Networks and a healthy share of the 1st and 2nd tier content. The PAC will still probably divide their rights...maybe they go with FOX or maybe they go with a new suitor from the tech sector. Either way, this would be a bang up deal for the PAC and would help ESPN control a greater portion of content from coast to coast.
It would effectively divide up all the core value of the Big 12 so the rest of the members could be had for a bargain price in a secondary league. The SEC would be happy. The Big Ten would no longer be in a position to steal content from ESPN-owned leagues(whether that's the PAC, the ACC, or the remnants of the Big 12) and might be thrown back into a position where they need more exposure on ESPN in the event their FOX partnership doesn't pan out as well as they hoped.
The state of TX would be divided up and so no league could monopolize that market.
There's still a lot of moving parts here, but the more I think it the more I think it makes sense.
Texas A&M was the first to bolt off to another league that wasn't Texas-centric. Whether anyone follows to the SEC is a question, but it would seem the future holds a time where the state's schools will be divided up. Logistically, that seems like the most likely outcome. Maybe more importantly, the networks won't want to go to a single league in order to have access to the huge and growing TX market.
Earlier today, ole Fluguar basically stated that Houston would get a Power 5 invite in the next round of realignment and the PAC was the likely suitor. He said a few other things(among them that the Big 12 got outfoxed by ESPN on negotiations for the recent CCG/ESPN+ deal), but I won't repeat the tweets here because people know where to find them if they want.
Anyway, let's presume for a moment that TCU ends up being a solid option for the SEC. I've always liked the idea and as long as Oklahoma is the other school then I think it makes a lot of sense.
Let me present that as a possibility because perhaps Texas has more leverage to drag their fellow state schools into the PAC. If they agreed to go to the PAC then they could basically take whoever they wanted. What if Texas Tech and Houston were accompanying them? I'll set aside the 4th member for a moment because there are several options, but a 16 team PAC with Texas is back in the game as far as strong revenue.
Could the networks benefit from this alignment?
I think ESPN's interest is piqued because there's a question of whether they would want the SEC to be unmatchable in revenue and content value. Would they aid the SEC at the expense of the Big Ten in helping OU into the SEC? I think that's reasonable and the SEC's interests are served by planting a flag in DFW. ESPN doesn't gain much by aiding the Big Ten with additions because a large portion of the key content will always go to FOX. Helping Texas into the SEC as well? On some level, it makes a lot of sense, but it would be out of character for ESPN to cede so much power to one of their properties. ESPN is a winner as long as they hold all the rights, but if the SEC decided to take their game elsewhere one day then ESPN has shot themselves in the foot. They'll have to pay more than they want in any open negotiation.
But is the PAC still a player?
Texas is still tied to ESPN through the LHN. This makes arranging their future a difficult thing because currently the SEC and ACC are the only leagues predominantly controlled by ESPN. I don't think the Big Ten is a legitimate option for a lot of reasons even if the money would be really good. The ACC does make some sense, but the travel would be difficult and they probably can't take any tagalongs because of the logistics. That and I think it's reasonable to conclude Notre Dame would not favor that move.
For ESPN, my feelings are that they would prefer to use Texas as a lure for the PAC. Recently, they made an offer to extend the PAC contract long term. While the deal they offered wasn't top notch, I do think it means ESPN is interested in controlling PAC content. It makes sense...they have an East Coast league, a Southern/Central Time Zone league, and it would be effective for marketing to have a West Coast league in the quiver. Whatever gives them flexibility for scheduling and excess content to put on ESPN+...I think that's what they are interested in for the foreseeable future.
Let's say a combo of Texas, Texas Tech, Houston, and Kansas was offered to the PAC along with more competitive payouts in exchange for control of the PAC Networks and a healthy share of the 1st and 2nd tier content. The PAC will still probably divide their rights...maybe they go with FOX or maybe they go with a new suitor from the tech sector. Either way, this would be a bang up deal for the PAC and would help ESPN control a greater portion of content from coast to coast.
It would effectively divide up all the core value of the Big 12 so the rest of the members could be had for a bargain price in a secondary league. The SEC would be happy. The Big Ten would no longer be in a position to steal content from ESPN-owned leagues(whether that's the PAC, the ACC, or the remnants of the Big 12) and might be thrown back into a position where they need more exposure on ESPN in the event their FOX partnership doesn't pan out as well as they hoped.
The state of TX would be divided up and so no league could monopolize that market.
There's still a lot of moving parts here, but the more I think it the more I think it makes sense.