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Since we have nothing else to talk about and he's making some fairly bold claims, I thought I would post about it:

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The story I’m working on involves the groundwork ESPN & the Big 12 have laid in preparation for the next TV deal that may come sooner rather than later and the possibility of the Big 12 having three broadcast partners & an exclusive weekly national broadcast on an OTA outlet.

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Replying to
@LifeofFitz
ESPN has a habit of locking down properties long term. ESPN has also figured out they can bundle anything with SECN & make money. The B12 reacquiring T3 rights is the most important event since the B12 signed a GoR.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
B12 has basically two separate OTA contracts with Fox & ESPN. Its possible for the B12 to extend its deal with ESPN & not Fox with ESPN having an option on the remaining rights should Fox not participate. CBS is interested in replacing Fox.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
ESPN would prefer the Big 12 to extend primary deal & GoR within the next two years. The first step was the consolidation of rights from third parties.

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The relationship with Fox is damaged perhaps beyond repair opening the door for CBS. CBS fears losing exclusive SEC game.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
A contact with direct knowledge of discussions between the B12 & the network said ESPN would do whatever is necessary to secure the Big 12 as an ESPN property longterm.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Both OU and UT have expressed their desire to remain in the Big 12 post 2025 to ESPN. I’m told an extension of the GoR before 2024 & as soon as 2020 is being discussed.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The Big 12 has been advised that a consolidation of T3 TV rights and a commitment by way of an extension of the GoR is necessary to secure a new TV deal or an extension from ESPN.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The Big 12 would most certainly add at least two additional members at the onset of a new contract.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Its very possible that the Big 12 has an exclusive weekly national TV broadcast in the 3:30 slot on CBS.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Obviously this makes the Big 12 more attractive to Pac 12 schools. Which is the intended byproduct of the actions.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
The Big 12 is interested in P12 members 1. UCLA 2. Cal 3. Arizona & 4. Arizona State. Interest does not mean contact or that it’s mutual interest.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
Now you have to wait for me to write the story. No debate on this stuff. Big assertions I feel confident enough to make public.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
One final point. The Big 12 is one big crazy island of talented misfit toys. UT & OU are bigger than any conference except the SEC. They both recognize how good they have it. If the money is ballpark - and it will be - they have no reason to leave and more reasons to stay.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
I’m waiting on stuff about WVU. Once I have that I will publish.

--------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
If ESPN pulls this off they will control the rights of 3 of the 5 power conferences.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
If that happens you can expect an informal scheduling alliance between the ACC, Big 12 & SEC with as many as 2 OoC games. Guess who wins if that happens.... ABC/ESPN.
(05-10-2019 07:52 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]Since we have nothing else to talk about and he's making some fairly bold claims, I thought I would post about it:

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The story I’m working on involves the groundwork ESPN & the Big 12 have laid in preparation for the next TV deal that may come sooner rather than later and the possibility of the Big 12 having three broadcast partners & an exclusive weekly national broadcast on an OTA outlet.

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Replying to
@LifeofFitz
ESPN has a habit of locking down properties long term. ESPN has also figured out they can bundle anything with SECN & make money. The B12 reacquiring T3 rights is the most important event since the B12 signed a GoR.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
B12 has basically two separate OTA contracts with Fox & ESPN. Its possible for the B12 to extend its deal with ESPN & not Fox with ESPN having an option on the remaining rights should Fox not participate. CBS is interested in replacing Fox.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
ESPN would prefer the Big 12 to extend primary deal & GoR within the next two years. The first step was the consolidation of rights from third parties.

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The relationship with Fox is damaged perhaps beyond repair opening the door for CBS. CBS fears losing exclusive SEC game.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
A contact with direct knowledge of discussions between the B12 & the network said ESPN would do whatever is necessary to secure the Big 12 as an ESPN property longterm.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Both OU and UT have expressed their desire to remain in the Big 12 post 2025 to ESPN. I’m told an extension of the GoR before 2024 & as soon as 2020 is being discussed.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The Big 12 has been advised that a consolidation of T3 TV rights and a commitment by way of an extension of the GoR is necessary to secure a new TV deal or an extension from ESPN.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The Big 12 would most certainly add at least two additional members at the onset of a new contract.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Its very possible that the Big 12 has an exclusive weekly national TV broadcast in the 3:30 slot on CBS.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Obviously this makes the Big 12 more attractive to Pac 12 schools. Which is the intended byproduct of the actions.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
The Big 12 is interested in P12 members 1. UCLA 2. Cal 3. Arizona & 4. Arizona State. Interest does not mean contact or that it’s mutual interest.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
Now you have to wait for me to write the story. No debate on this stuff. Big assertions I feel confident enough to make public.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
One final point. The Big 12 is one big crazy island of talented misfit toys. UT & OU are bigger than any conference except the SEC. They both recognize how good they have it. If the money is ballpark - and it will be - they have no reason to leave and more reasons to stay.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
I’m waiting on stuff about WVU. Once I have that I will publish.

--------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
If ESPN pulls this off they will control the rights of 3 of the 5 power conferences.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
If that happens you can expect an informal scheduling alliance between the ACC, Big 12 & SEC with as many as 2 OoC games. Guess who wins if that happens.... ABC/ESPN.

1. There is no reason for CBS to fear losing SEC exclusivity because they gave that up as a concession when we expanded. What CBS may be afraid of is losing the SEC altogether if they don't get right with the FOX payout to the Big 10 which would make our payout around 300 million per year based on ratings alone. We are talking the 63 million range per school for TV revenues.

If that's the case I'm sure ABC would be quite happy to claim the most consistently watched time slot for college football on Saturdays.

If ESPN picks up the Big 12 T3 which they mostly have as only OU's is up for grabs, and they have their current 50% holding on T1/T2 rights, and FOX isn't interested there's no way in hell that CBS is replacing the SEC with the other 50% of T1 and T2 rights because that's not enough to fill their 2:30 time slot and N.D. is tied up with NBC.

2. ESPN picked up the T3 rights of the 8 Big 12 schools not named OU/UT and 3 conference championships games for a total of 30 million. That's a little over 3 million for essentially all of the Big 12's T3 which they will be putting on ESPN+ and at least a 1/3rd of that total is for the three CCGs.

That's a lowball offer when the Big 12 had been wanting 20 million for their CCG's. It doesn't convince me that the B12 is getting top dollar for their rights, especially if in order to get the GOR signed UT and OU have to give up more lucrative T3 deals.

It does position ESPN to control possible movement and to dictate terms if they remain.

3. By calling a vote on a new GOR in 2020 they could open the door wide open for dissolution if everyone is not in agreement.

4. Lambert hasn't changed an Iota's worth. He's taking a lot of snippets from a wide array of different articles and turning it into a narrative for gullible Eer's.

S.O.S. out of the Dud!

5. If FOX isn't interested in the other half of the Big 12 rights how are they going to have any leverage? Wouldn't FOX if it keeps the Big 10 rights want to spruce up that content value by dragging a key Big 12 property North? If so wouldn't ESPN's added interest in T3 and the other half give them they upper hand? And calling for a GOR renewal gives any who want to move an ample get away excuse and if UT and OU are among them it gives them motive (not taking a loss on T3), and ESPN leverage. Since ESPN owns the AAC outright and they are on T3 with ESPN+ does that not line up nicely with the other 8 Big 12 schools? Would that not put ESPN in position to utilize Texas and OU where they are worth more and to rebuild a P conference with the best of the AAC?

6. And what if FOX gets out of college sports altogether? I could see CBS going after the Big 10 to replace an SEC that might be headed to ABC. But CBS won't front the revenue to draw in OU or Texas. They don't do that. ESPN holds about 45% of the Big 10 rights now. Wouldn't it be money better spent if FOX gets out to go after the Big 10 more fully? And if so wouldn't ESPN be better positioned to broker movement of certain schools out of the Big 12 rather than to invest even more in it?

7. This just lends more credence to the possibility of OU and Kansas to the Big 10, Texas and Tech to the SEC, T.C.U. and W.V.U. to the ACC, and everyone else to be joined by the best of the AAC.

That gives ESPN all of Texas through the SEC and DFW as a prop up to the value of the ACCN. It meets the desires of the current Texas legislature.

It props up the Big 10 with the best they could hope for really.

It takes pressure off of N.D. to join in full and it still gives ESPN the majority rights to 3 strong conferences only they would be the SEC, B1G, and ACC which would likely end realignment in the Eastern and Central time zones. If the PAC truly fades the AAC is ready for promotion.
The Dude whisperer is the late Mr. Ed.
(05-10-2019 08:41 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]The Dude whisperer is the late Mr. Ed.

With the wife he had (Carol: played by Connie Hines) I never understood why Wilbur spent so much time with that horse? I just figured the barn was a euphemism for being in the closet and the wife must have been happy with one of the neighbors!
I've never been a believer in the Dude's credibility although a few of these thoughts do strike me as reasonable under certain circumstances.

It does seem like Fox has pretty well bailed on the Big 12. Now, that could be as simple as they anticipate that the Big 12 has no future so why bother. It could also be a way to put pressure on a school like Oklahoma to move into their more favored property(the Big Ten) by creating a reality where the Big 12 is less palatable than it already was.

The central point that this whole Dude diatribe is predicated on is this...that Texas and Oklahoma want to stick around. That's wishful thinking on his part and it's clear he doesn't have the connections to actually know it could work out so perfectly in the Big 12's favor. Even if he knew the right people, no one is that good at predicting the future.

I don't think it's altogether unreasonable though that UT and OU end up staying. It will be very hard for either of these schools to get everything they want by moving. It could be a value question as to whether or not moving and possibly splitting up is more trouble than it's worth.

Would CBS be an option to pick up a significant portion of rights? That might make sense. I'm sure they could use the content, but they won't pay top dollar for it. Even if they lose the SEC T1 then a similar package from the Big 12 would not garner the same money the SEC would be getting. It's just not feasible.

But JR, your thought on the early convention of GOR discussions does make me think...

They say half truths are whole lies. Now what if it has gotten out there that the Big 12 will get together and open up the contract to discuss renewing the GOR? And what if it is exactly what you say it is...a strategy for some members to back out early? What option do the members who want to stick around have? Refuse to get together? Possibly establish grounds that the current GOR isn't being conducted in good faith? It's worth a shot.
(05-11-2019 02:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]I've never been a believer in the Dude's credibility although a few of these thoughts do strike me as reasonable under certain circumstances.

It does seem like Fox has pretty well bailed on the Big 12. Now, that could be as simple as they anticipate that the Big 12 has no future so why bother. It could also be a way to put pressure on a school like Oklahoma to move into their more favored property(the Big Ten) by creating a reality where the Big 12 is less palatable than it already was.

The central point that this whole Dude diatribe is predicated on is this...that Texas and Oklahoma want to stick around. That's wishful thinking on his part and it's clear he doesn't have the connections to actually know it could work out so perfectly in the Big 12's favor. Even if he knew the right people, no one is that good at predicting the future.

I don't think it's altogether unreasonable though that UT and OU end up staying. It will be very hard for either of these schools to get everything they want by moving. It could be a value question as to whether or not moving and possibly splitting up is more trouble than it's worth.

Would CBS be an option to pick up a significant portion of rights? That might make sense. I'm sure they could use the content, but they won't pay top dollar for it. Even if they lose the SEC T1 then a similar package from the Big 12 would not garner the same money the SEC would be getting. It's just not feasible.

But JR, your thought on the early convention of GOR discussions does make me think...

They say half truths are whole lies. Now what if it has gotten out there that the Big 12 will get together and open up the contract to discuss renewing the GOR? And what if it is exactly what you say it is...a strategy for some members to back out early? What option do the members who want to stick around have? Refuse to get together? Possibly establish grounds that the current GOR isn't being conducted in good faith? It's worth a shot.

Yes ATU, that one paragraph basically sums it up. I commend you for offering some topics that are not necessarily front burner matters, but are interesting.

For anyone following the B12, at least casually, one would speculate that OU and UT remaining in the B12 under a renewed GoR would be a considered option. As you know, it will be what money is put on the table.

If they receive a continuance deal whereby the monetary amounts, though perhaps not as formidable as to what the SEC and BIG could offer, it may be close enough to discourage the defections. We'll see within the next couple of years or so.

I think West Virginia would jump at an offer from the ACC, even if B12 revenue slightly exceeds that of the ACC. Iowa State would also move if the BIG, or even perhaps the SEC for that matter, extended an offer. Of course such offers would be very doubtful given the preferred interests of those two conferences.

The Kansas schools may hang with the rest of the B12 when the time comes if KU is not a first priority choice of the BIG and possibly the SEC.

All that said, it may just take one B12 school to commit to leaving to generate a ripple effect. Thus, predicting at this time with so many unclear variables to factor,
having confidence in what will ultimately happen is a bit shallow.

The powers that be are certainly talking at this point, but believing firm decisions have been reached is too much early anticipation. But it is fun to discuss.
(05-13-2019 01:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-11-2019 02:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]I've never been a believer in the Dude's credibility although a few of these thoughts do strike me as reasonable under certain circumstances.

It does seem like Fox has pretty well bailed on the Big 12. Now, that could be as simple as they anticipate that the Big 12 has no future so why bother. It could also be a way to put pressure on a school like Oklahoma to move into their more favored property(the Big Ten) by creating a reality where the Big 12 is less palatable than it already was.

The central point that this whole Dude diatribe is predicated on is this...that Texas and Oklahoma want to stick around. That's wishful thinking on his part and it's clear he doesn't have the connections to actually know it could work out so perfectly in the Big 12's favor. Even if he knew the right people, no one is that good at predicting the future.

I don't think it's altogether unreasonable though that UT and OU end up staying. It will be very hard for either of these schools to get everything they want by moving. It could be a value question as to whether or not moving and possibly splitting up is more trouble than it's worth.

Would CBS be an option to pick up a significant portion of rights? That might make sense. I'm sure they could use the content, but they won't pay top dollar for it. Even if they lose the SEC T1 then a similar package from the Big 12 would not garner the same money the SEC would be getting. It's just not feasible.

But JR, your thought on the early convention of GOR discussions does make me think...

They say half truths are whole lies. Now what if it has gotten out there that the Big 12 will get together and open up the contract to discuss renewing the GOR? And what if it is exactly what you say it is...a strategy for some members to back out early? What option do the members who want to stick around have? Refuse to get together? Possibly establish grounds that the current GOR isn't being conducted in good faith? It's worth a shot.

Yes ATU, that one paragraph basically sums it up. I commend you for offering some topics that are not necessarily front burner matters, but are interesting.

For anyone following the B12, at least casually, one would speculate that OU and UT remaining in the B12 under a renewed GoR would be a considered option. As you know, it will be what money is put on the table.

If they receive a continuance deal whereby the monetary amounts, though perhaps not as formidable as to what the SEC and BIG could offer, it may be close enough to discourage the defections. We'll see within the next couple of years or so.

I think West Virginia would jump at an offer from the ACC, even if B12 revenue slightly exceeds that of the ACC. Iowa State would also move if the BIG, or even perhaps the SEC for that matter, extended an offer. Of course such offers would be very doubtful given the preferred interests of those two conferences.

The Kansas schools may hang with the rest of the B12 when the time comes if KU is not a first priority choice of the BIG and possibly the SEC.

All that said, it may just take one B12 school to commit to leaving to generate a ripple effect. Thus, predicting at this time with so many unclear variables to factor,
having confidence in what will ultimately happen is a bit shallow.

The powers that be are certainly talking at this point, but believing firm decisions have been reached is too much early anticipation. But it is fun to discuss.

The two biggest variable that will be in play in 2022-4 will be:
1. The SEC's new T1 deal whether with CBS or not.
2. The Big 10's new contract whether with FOX or not.

If either or both of those events truly widen the gap between the SEC / B1G and the other 3 conferences I'd say all bets were off on stability.

The odds are the SEC will split up at least another 250 million and some have argued that it will be north of 300 million. That's a game changer.

Then the question is how badly will FOX want to hang onto the Big 10?

So while I'll not go so far as to say there will definitely be movement out of the Big 12, I nevertheless feel that the assumption that UT and/or OU will want to stay is in a lot more doubt than many may realize.
Interesting idea, when do fans of schools want to watch their college football games? Fox has a plan...
Quote:There are three networks that handle the bulk of college football broadcasting: ABC/ESPN, CBS and FOX. ABC/ESPN puts its best games in the Saturday Night Football window, while the SEC on CBS owns the 3:30 window. FOX is looking to win the early afternoon time slot, and they’re going to do it by giving advertisers as many Ohio State, Michigan, Texas and Oklahoma games as they can.

http://footballscoop.com/news/fox-making...l-viewers/
(05-13-2019 04:03 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 01:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-11-2019 02:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]I've never been a believer in the Dude's credibility although a few of these thoughts do strike me as reasonable under certain circumstances.

It does seem like Fox has pretty well bailed on the Big 12. Now, that could be as simple as they anticipate that the Big 12 has no future so why bother. It could also be a way to put pressure on a school like Oklahoma to move into their more favored property(the Big Ten) by creating a reality where the Big 12 is less palatable than it already was.

The central point that this whole Dude diatribe is predicated on is this...that Texas and Oklahoma want to stick around. That's wishful thinking on his part and it's clear he doesn't have the connections to actually know it could work out so perfectly in the Big 12's favor. Even if he knew the right people, no one is that good at predicting the future.

I don't think it's altogether unreasonable though that UT and OU end up staying. It will be very hard for either of these schools to get everything they want by moving. It could be a value question as to whether or not moving and possibly splitting up is more trouble than it's worth.

Would CBS be an option to pick up a significant portion of rights? That might make sense. I'm sure they could use the content, but they won't pay top dollar for it. Even if they lose the SEC T1 then a similar package from the Big 12 would not garner the same money the SEC would be getting. It's just not feasible.

But JR, your thought on the early convention of GOR discussions does make me think...

They say half truths are whole lies. Now what if it has gotten out there that the Big 12 will get together and open up the contract to discuss renewing the GOR? And what if it is exactly what you say it is...a strategy for some members to back out early? What option do the members who want to stick around have? Refuse to get together? Possibly establish grounds that the current GOR isn't being conducted in good faith? It's worth a shot.

Yes ATU, that one paragraph basically sums it up. I commend you for offering some topics that are not necessarily front burner matters, but are interesting.

For anyone following the B12, at least casually, one would speculate that OU and UT remaining in the B12 under a renewed GoR would be a considered option. As you know, it will be what money is put on the table.

If they receive a continuance deal whereby the monetary amounts, though perhaps not as formidable as to what the SEC and BIG could offer, it may be close enough to discourage the defections. We'll see within the next couple of years or so.

I think West Virginia would jump at an offer from the ACC, even if B12 revenue slightly exceeds that of the ACC. Iowa State would also move if the BIG, or even perhaps the SEC for that matter, extended an offer. Of course such offers would be very doubtful given the preferred interests of those two conferences.

The Kansas schools may hang with the rest of the B12 when the time comes if KU is not a first priority choice of the BIG and possibly the SEC.

All that said, it may just take one B12 school to commit to leaving to generate a ripple effect. Thus, predicting at this time with so many unclear variables to factor,
having confidence in what will ultimately happen is a bit shallow.

The powers that be are certainly talking at this point, but believing firm decisions have been reached is too much early anticipation. But it is fun to discuss.

The two biggest variable that will be in play in 2022-4 will be:
1. The SEC's new T1 deal whether with CBS or not.
2. The Big 10's new contract whether with FOX or not.

If either or both of those events truly widen the gap between the SEC / B1G and the other 3 conferences I'd say all bets were off on stability.

The odds are the SEC will split up at least another 250 million and some have argued that it will be north of 300 million. That's a game changer.

Then the question is how badly will FOX want to hang onto the Big 10?

So while I'll not go so far as to say there will definitely be movement out of the Big 12, I nevertheless feel that the assumption that UT and/or OU will want to stay is in a lot more doubt than many may realize.

So we know we've got some interesting news coming out of the Spring meetings. I think they're supposed to discuss alcohol sales, but I doubt that is what will really give ADs pause.

If it turns out to be a 9th game then that to me indicates negotiations are going well with CBS.

If the CBS deal ends up being significantly better then that's going to make Texas and Oklahoma consider us all the more. Of course, we can't negotiate with UT and OU in hand so whatever is coming has got to be pretty good without them in the fold.

Personally, I think they are more likely to move if we're taking a block of their schools. That could alter the value equation for us though.

Speaking of value, there has been scuttlebutt that Disney will buy the digital rights to NFL Sunday Ticket so they can put it on ESPN+. That's potentially a game changer for that platform. I still think it would only be a matter of time before SEC games are on there, but I think ESPN would be more willing to put big games on there if the audience ends up being inflated by the presence of NFL games.

If ESPN+ is a key part of the value for any league going forward then taking a block of Big 12 schools could actually be very beneficial.
(05-14-2019 05:54 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 04:03 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 01:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-11-2019 02:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]I've never been a believer in the Dude's credibility although a few of these thoughts do strike me as reasonable under certain circumstances.

It does seem like Fox has pretty well bailed on the Big 12. Now, that could be as simple as they anticipate that the Big 12 has no future so why bother. It could also be a way to put pressure on a school like Oklahoma to move into their more favored property(the Big Ten) by creating a reality where the Big 12 is less palatable than it already was.

The central point that this whole Dude diatribe is predicated on is this...that Texas and Oklahoma want to stick around. That's wishful thinking on his part and it's clear he doesn't have the connections to actually know it could work out so perfectly in the Big 12's favor. Even if he knew the right people, no one is that good at predicting the future.

I don't think it's altogether unreasonable though that UT and OU end up staying. It will be very hard for either of these schools to get everything they want by moving. It could be a value question as to whether or not moving and possibly splitting up is more trouble than it's worth.

Would CBS be an option to pick up a significant portion of rights? That might make sense. I'm sure they could use the content, but they won't pay top dollar for it. Even if they lose the SEC T1 then a similar package from the Big 12 would not garner the same money the SEC would be getting. It's just not feasible.

But JR, your thought on the early convention of GOR discussions does make me think...

They say half truths are whole lies. Now what if it has gotten out there that the Big 12 will get together and open up the contract to discuss renewing the GOR? And what if it is exactly what you say it is...a strategy for some members to back out early? What option do the members who want to stick around have? Refuse to get together? Possibly establish grounds that the current GOR isn't being conducted in good faith? It's worth a shot.

Yes ATU, that one paragraph basically sums it up. I commend you for offering some topics that are not necessarily front burner matters, but are interesting.

For anyone following the B12, at least casually, one would speculate that OU and UT remaining in the B12 under a renewed GoR would be a considered option. As you know, it will be what money is put on the table.

If they receive a continuance deal whereby the monetary amounts, though perhaps not as formidable as to what the SEC and BIG could offer, it may be close enough to discourage the defections. We'll see within the next couple of years or so.

I think West Virginia would jump at an offer from the ACC, even if B12 revenue slightly exceeds that of the ACC. Iowa State would also move if the BIG, or even perhaps the SEC for that matter, extended an offer. Of course such offers would be very doubtful given the preferred interests of those two conferences.

The Kansas schools may hang with the rest of the B12 when the time comes if KU is not a first priority choice of the BIG and possibly the SEC.

All that said, it may just take one B12 school to commit to leaving to generate a ripple effect. Thus, predicting at this time with so many unclear variables to factor,
having confidence in what will ultimately happen is a bit shallow.

The powers that be are certainly talking at this point, but believing firm decisions have been reached is too much early anticipation. But it is fun to discuss.

The two biggest variable that will be in play in 2022-4 will be:
1. The SEC's new T1 deal whether with CBS or not.
2. The Big 10's new contract whether with FOX or not.

If either or both of those events truly widen the gap between the SEC / B1G and the other 3 conferences I'd say all bets were off on stability.

The odds are the SEC will split up at least another 250 million and some have argued that it will be north of 300 million. That's a game changer.

Then the question is how badly will FOX want to hang onto the Big 10?

So while I'll not go so far as to say there will definitely be movement out of the Big 12, I nevertheless feel that the assumption that UT and/or OU will want to stay is in a lot more doubt than many may realize.

So we know we've got some interesting news coming out of the Spring meetings. I think they're supposed to discuss alcohol sales, but I doubt that is what will really give ADs pause.

If it turns out to be a 9th game then that to me indicates negotiations are going well with CBS.

If the CBS deal ends up being significantly better then that's going to make Texas and Oklahoma consider us all the more. Of course, we can't negotiate with UT and OU in hand so whatever is coming has got to be pretty good without them in the fold.

Personally, I think they are more likely to move if we're taking a block of their schools. That could alter the value equation for us though.

Speaking of value, there has been scuttlebutt that Disney will buy the digital rights to NFL Sunday Ticket so they can put it on ESPN+. That's potentially a game changer for that platform. I still think it would only be a matter of time before SEC games are on there, but I think ESPN would be more willing to put big games on there if the audience ends up being inflated by the presence of NFL games.

If ESPN+ is a key part of the value for any league going forward then taking a block of Big 12 schools could actually be very beneficial.

Under present valuations the largest block we could take is 4. If it's 4 and since OSU is the 5th (sometimes 4th) best property in the Big 12, I would have to think that with politics involved that Texa-homa would still be in play. Even with ESPN+ teams will have to still add value to the T1 contract.

Right now if adding 6 could be profitable (and it isn't) I be okay with with 6. Pick up Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and either Iowa State or W.V.U.. That ends the Big 12, cements the SEC as the top revenue producer.

Unfortunately, I think 2 schools will be sought and that both the Big 10 and SEC will be seeking them. And I think most who follow realignment recognize this.

If the Big 10 and SEC both just land one of the two powers each, I believe that Texas is the one that winds up with us. We'll see. But, I would be happy with either.
(05-14-2019 05:54 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 04:03 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 01:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-11-2019 02:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]I've never been a believer in the Dude's credibility although a few of these thoughts do strike me as reasonable under certain circumstances.

It does seem like Fox has pretty well bailed on the Big 12. Now, that could be as simple as they anticipate that the Big 12 has no future so why bother. It could also be a way to put pressure on a school like Oklahoma to move into their more favored property(the Big Ten) by creating a reality where the Big 12 is less palatable than it already was.

The central point that this whole Dude diatribe is predicated on is this...that Texas and Oklahoma want to stick around. That's wishful thinking on his part and it's clear he doesn't have the connections to actually know it could work out so perfectly in the Big 12's favor. Even if he knew the right people, no one is that good at predicting the future.

I don't think it's altogether unreasonable though that UT and OU end up staying. It will be very hard for either of these schools to get everything they want by moving. It could be a value question as to whether or not moving and possibly splitting up is more trouble than it's worth.

Would CBS be an option to pick up a significant portion of rights? That might make sense. I'm sure they could use the content, but they won't pay top dollar for it. Even if they lose the SEC T1 then a similar package from the Big 12 would not garner the same money the SEC would be getting. It's just not feasible.

But JR, your thought on the early convention of GOR discussions does make me think...

They say half truths are whole lies. Now what if it has gotten out there that the Big 12 will get together and open up the contract to discuss renewing the GOR? And what if it is exactly what you say it is...a strategy for some members to back out early? What option do the members who want to stick around have? Refuse to get together? Possibly establish grounds that the current GOR isn't being conducted in good faith? It's worth a shot.

Yes ATU, that one paragraph basically sums it up. I commend you for offering some topics that are not necessarily front burner matters, but are interesting.

For anyone following the B12, at least casually, one would speculate that OU and UT remaining in the B12 under a renewed GoR would be a considered option. As you know, it will be what money is put on the table.

If they receive a continuance deal whereby the monetary amounts, though perhaps not as formidable as to what the SEC and BIG could offer, it may be close enough to discourage the defections. We'll see within the next couple of years or so.

I think West Virginia would jump at an offer from the ACC, even if B12 revenue slightly exceeds that of the ACC. Iowa State would also move if the BIG, or even perhaps the SEC for that matter, extended an offer. Of course such offers would be very doubtful given the preferred interests of those two conferences.

The Kansas schools may hang with the rest of the B12 when the time comes if KU is not a first priority choice of the BIG and possibly the SEC.

All that said, it may just take one B12 school to commit to leaving to generate a ripple effect. Thus, predicting at this time with so many unclear variables to factor,
having confidence in what will ultimately happen is a bit shallow.

The powers that be are certainly talking at this point, but believing firm decisions have been reached is too much early anticipation. But it is fun to discuss.

The two biggest variable that will be in play in 2022-4 will be:
1. The SEC's new T1 deal whether with CBS or not.
2. The Big 10's new contract whether with FOX or not.

If either or both of those events truly widen the gap between the SEC / B1G and the other 3 conferences I'd say all bets were off on stability.

The odds are the SEC will split up at least another 250 million and some have argued that it will be north of 300 million. That's a game changer.

Then the question is how badly will FOX want to hang onto the Big 10?

So while I'll not go so far as to say there will definitely be movement out of the Big 12, I nevertheless feel that the assumption that UT and/or OU will want to stay is in a lot more doubt than many may realize.

So we know we've got some interesting news coming out of the Spring meetings. I think they're supposed to discuss alcohol sales, but I doubt that is what will really give ADs pause.

If it turns out to be a 9th game then that to me indicates negotiations are going well with CBS.

If the CBS deal ends up being significantly better then that's going to make Texas and Oklahoma consider us all the more. Of course, we can't negotiate with UT and OU in hand so whatever is coming has got to be pretty good without them in the fold.

Personally, I think they are more likely to move if we're taking a block of their schools. That could alter the value equation for us though.

Speaking of value, there has been scuttlebutt that Disney will buy the digital rights to NFL Sunday Ticket so they can put it on ESPN+. That's potentially a game changer for that platform. I still think it would only be a matter of time before SEC games are on there, but I think ESPN would be more willing to put big games on there if the audience ends up being inflated by the presence of NFL games.

If ESPN+ is a key part of the value for any league going forward then taking a block of Big 12 schools could actually be very beneficial.

Diverting a tad here, what is the current sentiment in the non-UT components of the B12 about the Longhorn Network? If UT, ESPN, Bowlsby, etc. don't address this white elephant, there is even less expectation the ten schools will remain together. The current B12 schools had chose to bite their lips and endure it for conference stability in the interim.
(05-14-2019 10:38 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-14-2019 05:54 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 04:03 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 01:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-11-2019 02:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]I've never been a believer in the Dude's credibility although a few of these thoughts do strike me as reasonable under certain circumstances.

It does seem like Fox has pretty well bailed on the Big 12. Now, that could be as simple as they anticipate that the Big 12 has no future so why bother. It could also be a way to put pressure on a school like Oklahoma to move into their more favored property(the Big Ten) by creating a reality where the Big 12 is less palatable than it already was.

The central point that this whole Dude diatribe is predicated on is this...that Texas and Oklahoma want to stick around. That's wishful thinking on his part and it's clear he doesn't have the connections to actually know it could work out so perfectly in the Big 12's favor. Even if he knew the right people, no one is that good at predicting the future.

I don't think it's altogether unreasonable though that UT and OU end up staying. It will be very hard for either of these schools to get everything they want by moving. It could be a value question as to whether or not moving and possibly splitting up is more trouble than it's worth.

Would CBS be an option to pick up a significant portion of rights? That might make sense. I'm sure they could use the content, but they won't pay top dollar for it. Even if they lose the SEC T1 then a similar package from the Big 12 would not garner the same money the SEC would be getting. It's just not feasible.

But JR, your thought on the early convention of GOR discussions does make me think...

They say half truths are whole lies. Now what if it has gotten out there that the Big 12 will get together and open up the contract to discuss renewing the GOR? And what if it is exactly what you say it is...a strategy for some members to back out early? What option do the members who want to stick around have? Refuse to get together? Possibly establish grounds that the current GOR isn't being conducted in good faith? It's worth a shot.

Yes ATU, that one paragraph basically sums it up. I commend you for offering some topics that are not necessarily front burner matters, but are interesting.

For anyone following the B12, at least casually, one would speculate that OU and UT remaining in the B12 under a renewed GoR would be a considered option. As you know, it will be what money is put on the table.

If they receive a continuance deal whereby the monetary amounts, though perhaps not as formidable as to what the SEC and BIG could offer, it may be close enough to discourage the defections. We'll see within the next couple of years or so.

I think West Virginia would jump at an offer from the ACC, even if B12 revenue slightly exceeds that of the ACC. Iowa State would also move if the BIG, or even perhaps the SEC for that matter, extended an offer. Of course such offers would be very doubtful given the preferred interests of those two conferences.

The Kansas schools may hang with the rest of the B12 when the time comes if KU is not a first priority choice of the BIG and possibly the SEC.

All that said, it may just take one B12 school to commit to leaving to generate a ripple effect. Thus, predicting at this time with so many unclear variables to factor,
having confidence in what will ultimately happen is a bit shallow.

The powers that be are certainly talking at this point, but believing firm decisions have been reached is too much early anticipation. But it is fun to discuss.

The two biggest variable that will be in play in 2022-4 will be:
1. The SEC's new T1 deal whether with CBS or not.
2. The Big 10's new contract whether with FOX or not.

If either or both of those events truly widen the gap between the SEC / B1G and the other 3 conferences I'd say all bets were off on stability.

The odds are the SEC will split up at least another 250 million and some have argued that it will be north of 300 million. That's a game changer.

Then the question is how badly will FOX want to hang onto the Big 10?

So while I'll not go so far as to say there will definitely be movement out of the Big 12, I nevertheless feel that the assumption that UT and/or OU will want to stay is in a lot more doubt than many may realize.

So we know we've got some interesting news coming out of the Spring meetings. I think they're supposed to discuss alcohol sales, but I doubt that is what will really give ADs pause.

If it turns out to be a 9th game then that to me indicates negotiations are going well with CBS.

If the CBS deal ends up being significantly better then that's going to make Texas and Oklahoma consider us all the more. Of course, we can't negotiate with UT and OU in hand so whatever is coming has got to be pretty good without them in the fold.

Personally, I think they are more likely to move if we're taking a block of their schools. That could alter the value equation for us though.

Speaking of value, there has been scuttlebutt that Disney will buy the digital rights to NFL Sunday Ticket so they can put it on ESPN+. That's potentially a game changer for that platform. I still think it would only be a matter of time before SEC games are on there, but I think ESPN would be more willing to put big games on there if the audience ends up being inflated by the presence of NFL games.

If ESPN+ is a key part of the value for any league going forward then taking a block of Big 12 schools could actually be very beneficial.

Diverting a tad here, what is the current sentiment in the non-UT components of the B12 about the Longhorn Network? If UT, ESPN, Bowlsby, etc. don't address this white elephant, there is even less expectation the ten schools will remain together. The current B12 schools had chose to bite their lips and endure it for conference stability in the interim.

If I had to guess I'd say that the everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas won't address it out of fear. Oklahoma is the most likely to bolt and Kansas will go with anyone that needs a travel mate.

So 7 of them will hold their collective breath, stay mum, and hope things continue as is. Texas will weigh options but wait to see what OU does. If OU does nothing Texas will as well. If OU moves Texas has some thinking to do. Kansas will wait and pray OU does something. Anyway that's how I see it.
(05-14-2019 02:47 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-14-2019 10:38 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-14-2019 05:54 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 04:03 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-13-2019 01:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]Yes ATU, that one paragraph basically sums it up. I commend you for offering some topics that are not necessarily front burner matters, but are interesting.

For anyone following the B12, at least casually, one would speculate that OU and UT remaining in the B12 under a renewed GoR would be a considered option. As you know, it will be what money is put on the table.

If they receive a continuance deal whereby the monetary amounts, though perhaps not as formidable as to what the SEC and BIG could offer, it may be close enough to discourage the defections. We'll see within the next couple of years or so.

I think West Virginia would jump at an offer from the ACC, even if B12 revenue slightly exceeds that of the ACC. Iowa State would also move if the BIG, or even perhaps the SEC for that matter, extended an offer. Of course such offers would be very doubtful given the preferred interests of those two conferences.

The Kansas schools may hang with the rest of the B12 when the time comes if KU is not a first priority choice of the BIG and possibly the SEC.

All that said, it may just take one B12 school to commit to leaving to generate a ripple effect. Thus, predicting at this time with so many unclear variables to factor,
having confidence in what will ultimately happen is a bit shallow.

The powers that be are certainly talking at this point, but believing firm decisions have been reached is too much early anticipation. But it is fun to discuss.

The two biggest variable that will be in play in 2022-4 will be:
1. The SEC's new T1 deal whether with CBS or not.
2. The Big 10's new contract whether with FOX or not.

If either or both of those events truly widen the gap between the SEC / B1G and the other 3 conferences I'd say all bets were off on stability.

The odds are the SEC will split up at least another 250 million and some have argued that it will be north of 300 million. That's a game changer.

Then the question is how badly will FOX want to hang onto the Big 10?

So while I'll not go so far as to say there will definitely be movement out of the Big 12, I nevertheless feel that the assumption that UT and/or OU will want to stay is in a lot more doubt than many may realize.

So we know we've got some interesting news coming out of the Spring meetings. I think they're supposed to discuss alcohol sales, but I doubt that is what will really give ADs pause.

If it turns out to be a 9th game then that to me indicates negotiations are going well with CBS.

If the CBS deal ends up being significantly better then that's going to make Texas and Oklahoma consider us all the more. Of course, we can't negotiate with UT and OU in hand so whatever is coming has got to be pretty good without them in the fold.

Personally, I think they are more likely to move if we're taking a block of their schools. That could alter the value equation for us though.

Speaking of value, there has been scuttlebutt that Disney will buy the digital rights to NFL Sunday Ticket so they can put it on ESPN+. That's potentially a game changer for that platform. I still think it would only be a matter of time before SEC games are on there, but I think ESPN would be more willing to put big games on there if the audience ends up being inflated by the presence of NFL games.

If ESPN+ is a key part of the value for any league going forward then taking a block of Big 12 schools could actually be very beneficial.

Diverting a tad here, what is the current sentiment in the non-UT components of the B12 about the Longhorn Network? If UT, ESPN, Bowlsby, etc. don't address this white elephant, there is even less expectation the ten schools will remain together. The current B12 schools had chose to bite their lips and endure it for conference stability in the interim.

If I had to guess I'd say that the everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas won't address it out of fear. Oklahoma is the most likely to bolt and Kansas will go with anyone that needs a travel mate.

So 7 of them will hold their collective breath, stay mum, and hope things continue as is. Texas will weigh options but wait to see what OU does. If OU does nothing Texas will as well. If OU moves Texas has some thinking to do. Kansas will wait and pray OU does something. Anyway that's how I see it.

It's been discussed before, but the notion of putting pressure on Texas by moving on Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is still a serious possibility, I suppose.
(05-14-2019 05:54 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]So we know we've got some interesting news coming out of the Spring meetings. I think they're supposed to discuss alcohol sales, but I doubt that is what will really give ADs pause.

If it turns out to be a 9th game then that to me indicates negotiations are going well with CBS.

If the CBS deal ends up being significantly better then that's going to make Texas and Oklahoma consider us all the more. Of course, we can't negotiate with UT and OU in hand so whatever is coming has got to be pretty good without them in the fold.

Yeah I expect some big news out of Destin, although I have been wrong before
(05-10-2019 08:51 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-10-2019 08:41 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: [ -> ]The Dude whisperer is the late Mr. Ed.

With the wife he had (Carol: played by Connie Hines) I never understood why Wilbur spent so much time with that horse? I just figured the barn was a euphemism for being in the closet and the wife must have been happy with one of the neighbors!
Wow... never thought about that, although I was like six years old. 04-jawdrop
(05-10-2019 08:24 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-10-2019 07:52 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]Since we have nothing else to talk about and he's making some fairly bold claims, I thought I would post about it:

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The story I’m working on involves the groundwork ESPN & the Big 12 have laid in preparation for the next TV deal that may come sooner rather than later and the possibility of the Big 12 having three broadcast partners & an exclusive weekly national broadcast on an OTA outlet.

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Replying to
@LifeofFitz
ESPN has a habit of locking down properties long term. ESPN has also figured out they can bundle anything with SECN & make money. The B12 reacquiring T3 rights is the most important event since the B12 signed a GoR.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
B12 has basically two separate OTA contracts with Fox & ESPN. Its possible for the B12 to extend its deal with ESPN & not Fox with ESPN having an option on the remaining rights should Fox not participate. CBS is interested in replacing Fox.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
ESPN would prefer the Big 12 to extend primary deal & GoR within the next two years. The first step was the consolidation of rights from third parties.

-----------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The relationship with Fox is damaged perhaps beyond repair opening the door for CBS. CBS fears losing exclusive SEC game.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
A contact with direct knowledge of discussions between the B12 & the network said ESPN would do whatever is necessary to secure the Big 12 as an ESPN property longterm.

------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Both OU and UT have expressed their desire to remain in the Big 12 post 2025 to ESPN. I’m told an extension of the GoR before 2024 & as soon as 2020 is being discussed.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The Big 12 has been advised that a consolidation of T3 TV rights and a commitment by way of an extension of the GoR is necessary to secure a new TV deal or an extension from ESPN.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The Big 12 would most certainly add at least two additional members at the onset of a new contract.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Its very possible that the Big 12 has an exclusive weekly national TV broadcast in the 3:30 slot on CBS.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Obviously this makes the Big 12 more attractive to Pac 12 schools. Which is the intended byproduct of the actions.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
The Big 12 is interested in P12 members 1. UCLA 2. Cal 3. Arizona & 4. Arizona State. Interest does not mean contact or that it’s mutual interest.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
Now you have to wait for me to write the story. No debate on this stuff. Big assertions I feel confident enough to make public.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
One final point. The Big 12 is one big crazy island of talented misfit toys. UT & OU are bigger than any conference except the SEC. They both recognize how good they have it. If the money is ballpark - and it will be - they have no reason to leave and more reasons to stay.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
I’m waiting on stuff about WVU. Once I have that I will publish.

--------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
If ESPN pulls this off they will control the rights of 3 of the 5 power conferences.

-------------------------

Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
If that happens you can expect an informal scheduling alliance between the ACC, Big 12 & SEC with as many as 2 OoC games. Guess who wins if that happens.... ABC/ESPN.

1. There is no reason for CBS to fear losing SEC exclusivity because they gave that up as a concession when we expanded. What CBS may be afraid of is losing the SEC altogether if they don't get right with the FOX payout to the Big 10 which would make our payout around 300 million per year based on ratings alone. We are talking the 63 million range per school for TV revenues.

If that's the case I'm sure ABC would be quite happy to claim the most consistently watched time slot for college football on Saturdays.

If ESPN picks up the Big 12 T3 which they mostly have as only OU's is up for grabs, and they have their current 50% holding on T1/T2 rights, and FOX isn't interested there's no way in hell that CBS is replacing the SEC with the other 50% of T1 and T2 rights because that's not enough to fill their 2:30 time slot and N.D. is tied up with NBC.

2. ESPN picked up the T3 rights of the 8 Big 12 schools not named OU/UT and 3 conference championships games for a total of 30 million. That's a little over 3 million for essentially all of the Big 12's T3 which they will be putting on ESPN+ and at least a 1/3rd of that total is for the three CCGs.

That's a lowball offer when the Big 12 had been wanting 20 million for their CCG's. It doesn't convince me that the B12 is getting top dollar for their rights, especially if in order to get the GOR signed UT and OU have to give up more lucrative T3 deals.

It does position ESPN to control possible movement and to dictate terms if they remain.

3. By calling a vote on a new GOR in 2020 they could open the door wide open for dissolution if everyone is not in agreement.

4. Lambert hasn't changed an Iota's worth. He's taking a lot of snippets from a wide array of different articles and turning it into a narrative for gullible Eer's.

S.O.S. out of the Dud!

5. If FOX isn't interested in the other half of the Big 12 rights how are they going to have any leverage? Wouldn't FOX if it keeps the Big 10 rights want to spruce up that content value by dragging a key Big 12 property North? If so wouldn't ESPN's added interest in T3 and the other half give them they upper hand? And calling for a GOR renewal gives any who want to move an ample get away excuse and if UT and OU are among them it gives them motive (not taking a loss on T3), and ESPN leverage. Since ESPN owns the AAC outright and they are on T3 with ESPN+ does that not line up nicely with the other 8 Big 12 schools? Would that not put ESPN in position to utilize Texas and OU where they are worth more and to rebuild a P conference with the best of the AAC?

6. And what if FOX gets out of college sports altogether? I could see CBS going after the Big 10 to replace an SEC that might be headed to ABC. But CBS won't front the revenue to draw in OU or Texas. They don't do that. ESPN holds about 45% of the Big 10 rights now. Wouldn't it be money better spent if FOX gets out to go after the Big 10 more fully? And if so wouldn't ESPN be better positioned to broker movement of certain schools out of the Big 12 rather than to invest even more in it?

7. This just lends more credence to the possibility of OU and Kansas to the Big 10, Texas and Tech to the SEC, T.C.U. and W.V.U. to the ACC, and everyone else to be joined by the best of the AAC.

That gives ESPN all of Texas through the SEC and DFW as a prop up to the value of the ACCN. It meets the desires of the current Texas legislature.

It props up the Big 10 with the best they could hope for really.

It takes pressure off of N.D. to join in full and it still gives ESPN the majority rights to 3 strong conferences only they would be the SEC, B1G, and ACC which would likely end realignment in the Eastern and Central time zones. If the PAC truly fades the AAC is ready for promotion.

Thanks to Jeff Bezos and his recent acquisition of the PAC 12 Networks, we may finally have a fly in the ointment. If Bezos can convince UT & OU that they’d be making more $$$’s on Amazon Prime than on ESPN, ESPN/ABC/Disney will once again have a fight on their hands, and this time, the competition is not FOX, but rather Amazon.
[quote='JRsec' pid='16095568' dateline='1557781405']
[quote='OdinFrigg' pid='16095211' dateline='1557772270']
[quote='AllTideUp' pid='16091795' dateline='1557561350']

The two biggest variable that will be in play in 2022-4 will be:
1. The SEC's new T1 deal whether with CBS or not.
2. The Big 10's new contract whether with FOX or not.

If either or both of those events truly widen the gap between the SEC / B1G and the other 3 conferences I'd say all bets were off on stability.

The odds are the SEC will split up at least another 250 million and some have argued that it will be north of 300 million. That's a game changer.

Then the question is how badly will FOX want to hang onto the Big 10?

I wonder if the Big Ten and Fox go their separate ways, will Fox sell their 51% stake in the Big Ten network? If "rumblings" start to appear before the next contract, I think that's a pretty good indication things aren't going well. Then maybe ABC/Disney might be a player for it. If THAT happened...they'd own college football.
(05-16-2019 03:17 AM)DawgNBama Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks to Jeff Bezos and his recent acquisition of the PAC 12 Networks, we may finally have a fly in the ointment. If Bezos can convince UT & OU that they’d be making more $$$’s on Amazon Prime than on ESPN, ESPN/ABC/Disney will once again have a fight on their hands, and this time, the competition is not FOX, but rather Amazon.

That was a fake story.

My offering to the "let's come up with scenarios and see if we can screw with people" game.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-876097.html
(05-16-2019 01:52 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-16-2019 03:17 AM)DawgNBama Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks to Jeff Bezos and his recent acquisition of the PAC 12 Networks, we may finally have a fly in the ointment. If Bezos can convince UT & OU that they’d be making more $$$’s on Amazon Prime than on ESPN, ESPN/ABC/Disney will once again have a fight on their hands, and this time, the competition is not FOX, but rather Amazon.

That was a fake story.

My offering to the "let's come up with scenarios and see if we can screw with people" game.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-876097.html

{——looks at AllTideUp, and gives him the serious sourpuss look: 01-lauramac2
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