Talking about the inevitability of a hard Brexit...
Quote:It isn’t so much that a softer Brexit is no longer an option, but instead that it was never an option.
Quote:...as the Americans back away from providing global maritime security, countries are going to discover that guns are at least as important as butter.
Quote:The global Order is collapsing as the Americans back away. The EU now must confront all the issues that they faced back before the Brits started the Brexit process. Whether the issue is debt or banks or refugees or demographics or trade each and every one of them has the capacity to utterly wreck the Union... Everything is in motion and the United Kingdom, despite its hang-ups and challenges, is one of the few countries with a capacity for independent action.
Lots of interesting details. The UK has no leverage in these "negotiations" and should never have expected anything but where they are now headed. His conclusion: They need to get over this and start working on what's next.
You will live as a free nation, or you will live as a conquered cuck nation. Those are the only two choices.
The UK Parliament wants the EU to just let them out easy peasy. No incentive at all for EU to do so. Just break away and get it over with
(04-09-2019 05:35 PM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]The UK Parliament wants the EU to just let them out easy peasy. No incentive at all for EU to do so. Just break away and get it over with
And don't pay the 65 billion Euros or whatever outrageous exit fee the EU is asking for.
Just tell them, sue me in a British court!
Exactly. It will be rough immediately exiting since the EU is being difficult but long term it will be o so worth it
The EU's bargaining position has basically been "You give us everything we want, and then we'll talk about what you want."
That's not how you negotiate, and they know it. They were hoping to either 1) Wear down the UK so they'd just agree to stay or 2) Punish the UK as much as possible to deter other countries from trying to leave as well.
Quick update: the British government under Boris Johnson (“BoJo” according to some tabloids; “BoZo” or “Bozo” according to some other) is very clear that the UK will withdraw from the EU on 31st October (11pm London time), deal-or-no-deal. And since the EU evidently doesn’t wish to revisit the deal that got voted down in Parliament on three (3) separate occasions, it looks like no-deal for time-being.
Only possible hitch is that Johnson’s government basically has a majority of one (1) vote out of ~643 members of the House of Commons. So the idea that the Government could lose a Vote Of No Confidence and be replaced before 10/31 cannot be completely discounted.
(04-09-2019 09:38 PM)q5sys Wrote: [ -> ]The EU's bargaining position has basically been "You give us everything we want, and then we'll talk about what you want."
That's not how you negotiate, and they know it. They were hoping to either 1) Wear down the UK so they'd just agree to stay or 2) Punish the UK as much as possible to deter other countries from trying to leave as well.
What? We have Demoncraps ruling the EU? Those rats are everywhere. They play the same game here in the US.
(04-09-2019 12:31 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]Talking about the inevitability of a hard Brexit...
Quote:It isn’t so much that a softer Brexit is no longer an option, but instead that it was never an option.
Quote:...as the Americans back away from providing global maritime security, countries are going to discover that guns are at least as important as butter.
Quote:The global Order is collapsing as the Americans back away. The EU now must confront all the issues that they faced back before the Brits started the Brexit process. Whether the issue is debt or banks or refugees or demographics or trade each and every one of them has the capacity to utterly wreck the Union... Everything is in motion and the United Kingdom, despite its hang-ups and challenges, is one of the few countries with a capacity for independent action.
Lots of interesting details. The UK has no leverage in these "negotiations" and should never have expected anything but where they are now headed. His conclusion: They need to get over this and start working on what's next.
May gave away leverage. EU doesn't want a hard Brexit either but thinks Britain is more scared.
EU recognizes, but refuses to acknowledge it publicly, the EU needs the UK a hella lot more than UK needs EU.
How they ever allowed themselves to get sucked into this morass in the first place is the real mystery. The idea that the proud UK would be taking marching orders from some random bureaucracy in Brussels flies in the face of a thousand years or more.
Not sure why anyone would question or even debate whether the UK can survive and thrive on it's own, they've only been doing so for, well forever.
The EU does allow you to skip customs when moving from one place to another, so there is that, which is kinda nice... Time to get out, deal or no deal.
(04-09-2019 05:53 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (04-09-2019 05:35 PM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]The UK Parliament wants the EU to just let them out easy peasy. No incentive at all for EU to do so. Just break away and get it over with
And don't pay the 65 billion Euros or whatever outrageous exit fee the EU is asking for.
Just tell them, sue me in a British court!
Big Exit fee. David St do you have any thoughts on this? Maybe the UK to the SEC?
When the UK thinks the powers that be in Brussels are too Liberal and trying to impose their will/laws then we can just imagine how bad those laws are considering how Liberal the UK is to begin with. Wow, it's mind boggling.
(08-07-2019 04:06 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote: [ -> ] (04-09-2019 05:53 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (04-09-2019 05:35 PM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]The UK Parliament wants the EU to just let them out easy peasy. No incentive at all for EU to do so. Just break away and get it over with
And don't pay the 65 billion Euros or whatever outrageous exit fee the EU is asking for.
Just tell them, sue me in a British court!
Big Exit fee. David St do you have any thoughts on this? Maybe the UK to the SEC?
(04-09-2019 09:38 PM)q5sys Wrote: [ -> ]The EU's bargaining position has basically been "You give us everything we want, and then we'll talk about what you want."
That's not how you negotiate, and they know it. They were hoping to either 1) Wear down the UK so they'd just agree to stay or 2) Punish the UK as much as possible to deter other countries from trying to leave as well.
Any “soft” deal that grants the UK some of the EU’s benefits without all the EU’s costs and responsibilities is one the Union ruled out from the very beginning. Moreover, the UK’s firmest allies within the Union — most notably the Netherlands — have repeatedly and explicitly ruled such deals out for the simple reason that if the UK can get such a deal, so will everyone else, which would render the idea of the EU rather pointless. And since it only takes one country to veto any deal, the idea that the UK has any leverage in these talks is silly.
The UK has ZERO LEVERAGE
It’s in the EU’s best interest to make the UK an example.
(08-08-2019 07:40 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ]It’s in the EU’s best interest to make the UK an example.
Whose best interest? The EU as a whole, or the Brussels bureaucrats? It's clearly in the latter's best interest to make Brexit as painful as possible. I'm not at all certain about the former.
(08-08-2019 07:39 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ] (04-09-2019 09:38 PM)q5sys Wrote: [ -> ]The EU's bargaining position has basically been "You give us everything we want, and then we'll talk about what you want."
That's not how you negotiate, and they know it. They were hoping to either 1) Wear down the UK so they'd just agree to stay or 2) Punish the UK as much as possible to deter other countries from trying to leave as well.
Any “soft” deal that grants the UK some of the EU’s benefits without all the EU’s costs and responsibilities is one the Union ruled out from the very beginning. Moreover, the UK’s firmest allies within the Union — most notably the Netherlands — have repeatedly and explicitly ruled such deals out for the simple reason that if the UK can get such a deal, so will everyone else, which would render the idea of the EU rather pointless. And since it only takes one country to veto any deal, the idea that the UK has any leverage in these talks is silly.
The UK has ZERO LEVERAGE
Sure they do.
Like so many former libs and fakeunion members they can simply-
Duh, duh, dunnnn
Walk away.
AMF Brussels!
With the Scottish independence movement reinvigorated and the prospect of a hard border being put up between N. Ireland and Ireland, Boris Johnson could be the last PM of the United Kingdom.
Assuming he survives a vote of no confidence, that is...
(08-08-2019 08:40 AM)JMUDunk Wrote: [ -> ] (08-08-2019 07:39 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: [ -> ] (04-09-2019 09:38 PM)q5sys Wrote: [ -> ]The EU's bargaining position has basically been "You give us everything we want, and then we'll talk about what you want."
That's not how you negotiate, and they know it. They were hoping to either 1) Wear down the UK so they'd just agree to stay or 2) Punish the UK as much as possible to deter other countries from trying to leave as well.
Any “soft” deal that grants the UK some of the EU’s benefits without all the EU’s costs and responsibilities is one the Union ruled out from the very beginning. Moreover, the UK’s firmest allies within the Union — most notably the Netherlands — have repeatedly and explicitly ruled such deals out for the simple reason that if the UK can get such a deal, so will everyone else, which would render the idea of the EU rather pointless. And since it only takes one country to veto any deal, the idea that the UK has any leverage in these talks is silly.
The UK has ZERO LEVERAGE
Sure they do.
Like so many former libs and fakeunion members they can simply-
Duh, duh, dunnnn
Walk away.
AMF Brussels!
Using your analogy. Those that walk away receive no benefit. The walk away union member still get the benefit of the negotiated contract.