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In announcing that Tony Shaver was not being retained (aka fired), William and Mary cited Tony's overall, and conference, won-lost records and percentages.

Let's start with the conference record/percentage.

In the modern era of the CAA (2013-2019)(post VCU), Tony's teams were 64-42 (.603) in conference play, finishing no lower than fourth: first, third (2), and fourth (3).

That is in stark contrast to the Press Release: 124-162 (.434).

One can say that using the overall number is fair. So be it. The modern era number indicates that W&M was trending "up"; one does not get rid of a guy who is trending "up".

Let's go to the overall record/percentage.

First, if you discount the first three years when Tony had someone else's players (7-21, 8-21, 8-20), the overall record for the last 13 years when Tony had his players was 203-206.

Second, during the last 13 years, the win totals were: 6, 10 (2), 13, 14, 15, 17(2), 19, 20(3), and 22.

Third, as I indicated in another thread, Tony's contract obligated him to schedule 2-3 road losses per year to generate revenue for the Department. Over the course of 16 years, those mandatory 2-3 road losses added up. If 2 mandatory road losses could have been two home cupcake wins, Tony's teams would have been 258-236 (.522). If 3 mandatory road losses could have been three home cupcake wins, Tony's teams would have been 274-220 (.555).

That is in stark contrast to the Press Release: 226-268 (.457).

Well, what if you combined the last 13 years when Tony had his players, with the 2-3 mandatory road losses being converted to 2-3 home cupcake wins during those 13 years, what would Tony's record have been? I'm glad you asked.

Two mandatory road losses by contract converted to two home cupcake wins over the past 13 years: 229-180 (.560).

Three mandatory road losses by contract converted to three home cupcake wins over the past 13 years: 242-167 (.592).

I am aware that Tony's teams did win some of those mandatory road losses per contract, but the point is made.

Something else needs to be considered: the home schedule during Tony's schedule, or the lack thereof. We didn't pay people to come to the Hall / Kaplan. Our home schedule, the backbone of any team's / coaches' won/lost record, was a different animal at W&M due to budget constraints, and it did Tony / the team no favors.

The Press Release stats, while accurate numbers, were unfairly used to insinuate that Tony's overall record was less than satisfactory, when the exact opposite was true. The use of these stats is especially egregious since the Department, by contract, imposed 2-3 road losses per year on Tony, and rendered no home scheduling help.

So, when someone tries to argue that Tony wasn't even a .500 coach at W&M, set them straight ... starting with the person(s) who crafted and approved the Press Release! Perhaps they didn't realize the above, but if they did ... shame!

Now I understand what Kellyanne Conway refers to as “alternative facts”. Whether you like it or not, Tony’s overall record at W&M is a losing one. I am sure the required road buy games in the contract were not titled “mandatory road losses”. Some coaches actually win those games once in a while. Did his contract also mandate playing one or two D-3 cupcakes every season...thereby inflating his win total by 20 games or so over sixteen years? Somehow I doubt it. We get it, you’re mad, life is not fair, etc. The decision has been made. The die is cast. No matter how much you ***** and moan about it, Tony is not coming back. If London and the next basketball coach fail, you will get to see Huge fired soon enough.

Odd how there's no mention of the D-3 games played every year.

(03-19-2019 07:28 PM)Tribester Wrote: [ -> ]Now I understand what Kellyanne Conway refers to as “alternative facts”. Whether you like it or not, Tony’s overall record at W&M is a losing one. I am sure the required road buy games in the contract were not titled “mandatory road losses”. Some coaches actually win those games once in a while. Did his contract also mandate playing one or two D-3 cupcakes every season...thereby inflating his win total by 20 games or so over sixteen years? Somehow I doubt it. We get it, you’re mad, life is not fair, etc. The decision has been made. The die is cast. No matter how much you ***** and moan about it, Tony is not coming back. If London and the next basketball coach fail, you will get to see Huge fired soon enough.

Coach London is not going to fail.

The next basketball coach will have my complete support in a very tough situation. My greatest fear is that the new hire will not be as good as the man he/she replaces. That would be a nightmare for everyone.

AD Huge has my complete support as she tries to sustain what Tony has built, build some more, and get the Tribe to the next level in terms of facilities, etc. ... maybe even conference affiliation. I do not want to see her fired. I want her to succeed wildly. I want her choice for new hoops coach to be a “home run”.

Continue to build the program. The Dance will take care of itself.

Re: Tony. He was treated shabbily. My postings are pushback. It’s not all right. It will never be all right. Hiring John Wooden is not going to make it right. They are separate and distinct.

So, if I’m not bringing up good points, just ignore me.

Duke played Stetson and Hartford.

VCU played UVA-Wise.

UVA played Coppin State.

And little ol W&M can't play William Peace without you guys making a big deal about it?



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Looking at overall record is just a terrible stat to go off of. He inherited a garbage team when he started and needed time to put his system and players into place. Not sure what his record is since 2007, but I imagine it is much better than his overall win percentage. He has also recruited well the past 10 years and brought in arguably some of the best players W&M has ever had.

Not saying Shaver should/should not have been fired (although I think it was foolish not waiting until after next season), but you (Huge) better have a better rationale than that and better make sure you have a slam dunk hire that will be an upgrade, or things could get ugly fast.

(03-19-2019 07:55 PM)Tribal Wrote: [ -> ]Duke played Stetson and Hartford.

VCU played UVA-Wise.

UVA played Coppin State.

And little ol W&M can't play William Peace without you guys making a big deal about it?

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The argument isn't that we can't play them, it's that you can't claim hardship on one side and ignore the other. His record is what it is. Don't lose to Towson or Drexel on senior night and you get more wins too.

At this point, why not just throw out every game against a team that was favored to beat us? Is it Shaver's fault that WM decided to join the CAA in 1979, after which point VCU decided to join in 1995, and thus forcing him to play not one but TWO games against a final four team in the 2010-2011 season? Clearly a nefarious plot that the athletic department decided to include those games in his overall record.

Take out all the games in which he was forced to play a better team, and we see Shaver's true value winning 87% of his games!

Look, the last 5 years the Tribe finished below expectations. I am sure that we were the conference favorites every year. I just have forgotten. I do remember this year, we were projected 3rd and finished 4th. That must be it.

Starting in 2013 after all the big teams left the conference, W&M had its best stretch in recent memory. Yet it's not hard to look and see how things might have been different:

2014: 10-6, finished 3rd. 4th place team was 8-8, so the conference was pretty shallow. Had some losses to crappy teams in conference but not enough to get a higher seed. RPI was 120, so flipping their bad losses to Charleston and Hofstra probably doesn't get them into the NIT.

2015: Won the conference in a 4 way tie. Lost to 11-19 Drexel in the last regular season game when they could win the conference outright. The top four teams were 12-6, and 6 teams were at least .500. Swept by 10-20 Delaware, also lost to a bad Elon team. Made the NIT with an RPI of 99 due to the auto bid. Take care of business and the RPI is higher, which might have gotten a better matchup.

2016: Went 11-7, ended up in a 3 way tie but got the 5th seed on tiebreakers. Lost at home to 6-25 Drexel; flip that game and they're the 3 seed, play Northeastern in the first round (who they swept) and then UNCW in the semis (who they split with). Instead they ended up with Hofstra in the semis who already beat them twice. Also lost to 10-20 Howard in the regular season. Ended with an RPI of 71, so they weren't too far off from an NIT bid if they'd have taken care of business.

2017: Returned Dixon and Prewitt as seniors, went 10-8 in conference and 17-14 overall with two D-3 games. Lost to 14-16 CMU and 12-17 Hampton OOC. Ended up 4th in conference, one game behind Towson. Lost to 9-23 Drexel and 10-23 JMU teams; flip either of those, they're the 3 seed. Instead they were the 4 seed, lined up against #1 seed UNCW who were white-hot that night. UNCW shot much worse in the title game the next day. Maybe that was all due to Charleston's defense and not fatigue. We'll never know.

2018: 11-7 in conference, 4th place. Every team below them was under .500. Murdered by 11-16 High Point, again played 2 D-3 games. Pulled out a bunch of crazy wins to start conference play that was unsustainable. Lost to 13-20 Drexel (noticing a trend here) that ended up costing them the 3rd seed. That probably was for the best since they were swept by the #2 seed that year.

2019: 10-8, 4th place. Once again everyone below was under .500. Non-conference was ugly. Was two games behind 3rd place Charleston, and lost at home to Elon (11-21) and @UNCW (10-23), but I think they still end up 4th on tiebreakers.

The 12-6 record that won the conference in 2015 would have gotten them 3rd place every other year over that time period. I guess it's a question of how impressive that barely over .500 record is when the conference was decapitated by defections. Over this time period he had a CAA player of the year and a first team all-CAA player every year exceot 2017-18. Maybe I'll do a topic one night of a deep dive into W&M's defense and how it cost Shaver his job.

You have been spot on re: your comments about lack of defense over the years.

From the cheap seats, my thought has always been that recruiting was always a problem, that style of play came into play re: recruiting, that a certain type of player flourished here, etc., and that the poison chosen was on the defensive side of the ball, not an inability to coach it.