I'll let this one simmer a few hours before I post the real answer.
Offer your rationale for your figure, even if it's just "that's what quick pick gave me at the gas station this morning."
100,000. A few Poles, German, Brits and the American troops stationed in Germany.
It would be up to the Air Force to stop them from sweeping into Germany in a week or two.
Its why the thought of Ukraine in NATO is crazy. Its surrounded on 3 sides by Russia.
(03-11-2019 09:43 AM)usmbacker Wrote: [ -> ]Thought this would fit in this thread.
U.S. "Gets Its Ass Handed To It" In World War III Simulation: RAND
This is a misleading article.
Of course we would get our asses handed to us in a ground war in Asia. I would like to see a simulation of the Russians or China trying to invade the mainland USA. The US Navy and Air Force would have one big heyday.
(03-11-2019 09:21 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ]I'll let this one simmer a few hours before I post the real answer.
Offer your rationale for your figure, even if it's just "that's what quick pick gave me at the gas station this morning."
Not enough.
The best that could happen was a delay.
The one thing that Russia and China have over the USA and NATO is ground troops and conventional warfare equipment. It is not even close.
(03-11-2019 09:56 AM)UofMTigerTim Wrote: [ -> ] (03-11-2019 09:21 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ]I'll let this one simmer a few hours before I post the real answer.
Offer your rationale for your figure, even if it's just "that's what quick pick gave me at the gas station this morning."
Not enough.
The best that could happen was a delay.
The one thing that Russia and China have over the USA and NATO is ground troops and conventional warfare equipment. It is not even close.
What good are their ground troops when we can kill them all with Tomahawk cruise missiles from 3,000 miles away?
Russia won't attack Poland, they have far too much to lose by doing so. There's no way that Putin would dare risking territory that would likely be blasted to smithereens were he to attack from it. Plus, Poland is not the weak sauce country they were in the 30's and 40's, we've made sure of that.
Combat ready troops? I'd estimate less than 25k and they will be mostly the US forces in the UK, Italy, and Germany.
(03-11-2019 10:31 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-11-2019 09:56 AM)UofMTigerTim Wrote: [ -> ] (03-11-2019 09:21 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ]I'll let this one simmer a few hours before I post the real answer.
Offer your rationale for your figure, even if it's just "that's what quick pick gave me at the gas station this morning."
Not enough.
The best that could happen was a delay.
The one thing that Russia and China have over the USA and NATO is ground troops and conventional warfare equipment. It is not even close.
What good are their ground troops when we can kill them all with Tomahawk cruise missiles from 3,000 miles away?
Because it would take more Tomahawks missiles than we could afford. Eventually you would have to put boots on the ground. MacArthur wanted to nuke China during the Koren War for a reason.
Only two numerical guesses so far.
(03-11-2019 10:31 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-11-2019 09:56 AM)UofMTigerTim Wrote: [ -> ] (03-11-2019 09:21 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ]I'll let this one simmer a few hours before I post the real answer.
Offer your rationale for your figure, even if it's just "that's what quick pick gave me at the gas station this morning."
Not enough.
The best that could happen was a delay.
The one thing that Russia and China have over the USA and NATO is ground troops and conventional warfare equipment. It is not even close.
What good are their ground troops when we can kill them all with Tomahawk cruise missiles from 3,000 miles away?
You can't. Tomahawks don't work that way.
(03-11-2019 11:25 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ]Only two numerical guesses so far.
3,467
(03-11-2019 11:31 AM)UofMTigerTim Wrote: [ -> ] (03-11-2019 11:25 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ]Only two numerical guesses so far.
3,467
3,466....I'd use a sick day...
I'm still trying to figure out the value of NATO in today's schema...
NATO total in Europe including Turkey:
200K
Sorry I forgot to add one detachment.
revised number: 4,453 (-1 cause Stink called in sick.)
In the first days of the war it would be Poland's ground forces supported by NATO air power. Within a week or two roughly 10-15k could respond from NATO on the ground. Within 30 days they could have 50k on the ground supporting Polish forces.
Between days 30 and 60 it's over one way or another. Russia does not have the industrial complex to fight a long war of territorial gains. It wouldn't be the Red Army of WW2 where conscripts were fighting(either by choice or the threat of execution) to defend the Motherland. I'd wager it makes it that long before a truce is declared to keep gas flowing into Europe in exchange that NATO doesn't drive to Moscow and risk a nuclear war.
(03-11-2019 11:25 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ]Only two numerical guesses so far.
Glancing at the size of Germany, France & England's active military + what the US has deployed in Europe.................one would think that something north of 100K could be deployed relatively quickly.
(03-11-2019 11:43 AM)Crebman Wrote: [ -> ] (03-11-2019 11:25 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: [ -> ]Only two numerical guesses so far.
Glancing at the size of Germany, France & England's active military + what the US has deployed in Europe.................one would think that something north of 100K could be deployed relatively quickly.
It would depend greatly on how much the Russian airforce attacks the rail lines in the opening of the war. It's very slow moving tanks by truck or tread. If they decimate the rail lines leading to the fronts it would be very hard to move armored forces into place. That was my reasoning behind the low estimate.