CSNbbs

I'll move this when the official thread goes up:

11-0, 19-4 overall Wofford, #31 in Kenpom. Versus 9-2, 19-5 overall ETSU, #60 in Kenpom.

The most experienced TEAM in the SoCon with the best overall talent that Mike Young has ever had (especially the best rebounding he’s ever had – tied for 9th in D1 at +8.2 on the season to ETSU's 1st). With all the disciplined offense that you expect from a Mike Young team: 15th in D1 in Adjusted Offense in Kenpom’s ranking to 97th for ETSU. But overall Defense according to Kenpom is 93rd in D1 to 50th for ETSU.

Experience: led by Seniors Cam Jackson (14.5 ppg with 7.1 rebounds) and Fletcher Magee (20.9 ppg on .412 with 4.5 makes from 3) and Junior Nate Hoover (14.0 ppg on .450 from 3 with 2.5 makes). With Sophomores 6-9 225 Keve Aluma and 5-11 point guard Storm Murphy who have already had a year as starters. They’ve all played together for from 1 to 4 years. These 5 guys get 22 to 33 minutes and carry the load. With Junior Trevor Stumpe rejoining the lineup the last 2 games, he adds another experienced 20 minute a game guy with shooting, passing and rebounding. When he’s healthy he makes everybody on this team better.

There are 3 key role players getting 12-15 minutes: 6-9 225 Rs-So Charleston transfer Chevez Goodwin, who has already had a year working with them in practice while he sat out last season, 6-2 185 So Tray Hollowell and 6-0 180 Fr Ryan Larson. Stepping into a crew like this is a little like joining the New England Patriots. Everybody accepts and knows an unselfish disciplined system, and the new guys get brought right along.

A fourth guy joins the rotation if he’s healthy: 6-11 260 Senior Matt Pegram, a key part of their win over the Bucs, has missed the last 2 games to an ankle injury. He’ll get 15 minutes if he’s healthy. Last time against the Bucs he got 19 minutes, 10 points on 5-7 shooting and 6 rebounds.

Rebounding: best ever for a Mike Young team, by far. They are dead even with Bucs in rebounding in conference play at +8.0 per game. In the last 5 games they have been better as the Bucs have averaged +3.6. Last time out they kicked our butts inside, outrebounding us by 13, 36-23. They are led by 6-8 255 wrecking ball Cam Jackson (7.1 rpg in conference) , much improved 6-9 225 So. Keve Aluma (7.9 rpg), and 6-9 225 Goodwin (4.1). And this is the best ever Bucs team for rebounding margin. Mike Young has been handing out much deserved compliments to his new strength and conditioning coach. He says it was embarrassing that weren’t better in that area until this year. ETSU was frankly not entirely ready for them on December 1st, not quite a month into the season, with Lucas N’Guessan not yet eligible, and on their home court Spartanburg. It was the worst early SoCon matchup that an inexperienced team could have gotten. Jeromy got 7 rebounds, 5 to Bo, 1 to Mladen – no N’Guessan. If 6-11 260 Senior Matt Pegram (3.8 rpg in conference, but 6 against the Bucs) is out they could have a tougher time inside. We’ll see if he plays. And what effect Lucas N’Guessan has. I hope that Lucas brings the energy and aggressiveness that he showed against Chattanooga. He could be a real difference maker. And is Jeromy healthy after a couple of games below his usual astronomically high standards?

Wofford is 24th in D1 in ppg - ETSU is 37th. They are 13th in D1 in 3 pointers per game at 10.5 and 12th in D1 in 3pt% at .391 (but are even better in conference at .431). Fletcher Magee has come back from an uneven OOC start to hit 20.9 points on .412 from 3 with 4.5 makes in conference.

Wofford is 43rd in D1 in ppg allowed – ETSU is 64th . But as noted, the Bucs rate significantly higher in overall Defensive efficiency in Kenpom’s ranking (50th to 93rd ). ETSU is slightly higher in FG% defense (.438 to .447) and about even in 3pt% defense (.359 to .359 for Wofford, with 8.6 makes to 8.2 makes for Wofford).

Turnovers and points off turnovers have been big for the Bucs in recent games. Turnovers were one area where we led Wofford the first time out, forcing 15 from them and making only 9.

The Terriers have struggled at times in the winter conference slog and should have lost at home to Samford. But in their last 2 games against Mercer and Citadel they were crushing it.

A week ago Kenpom had the Bucs favored by 1. Right now they have Wofford favored by a single point (71-70) in what they see as a “51%-49%” call. This game isn’t the season – that will play out in March in Asheville. But it should be a good measure of how far we’ve come in the two long months since December 1st.

All stats are conference play only, unless otherwise noted:

Guards:
#03 6-4 195 Sr. Fletcher Magee; 33.4 min., 20.9 ppg, .412 from 3 (4.5 makes), but only .477 2 pt FG%, 2.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 t.o.’s
#10 6-4 180 Jr. Nate Hoover; 29.3 min., 14.0 ppg, .450 from 3 (2.5 makes), .481 from 2, 1.9 rebounds
#5 5-11 180 So. Storm Murphy; 25.9 min., 7.1 ppg, .586 from 3 (1.5 makes), .478 from 2, 1.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 t.o.’s
#21 6-2 185 So. Tray Hollowell; 12.7 min., 5.5 ppg, .536 from 3 (1.4 makes), .368 from 2, 1.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 t.o.’s
#11 6-1 175 Fr. Ryan Larson; 14.3 min., 3.0 ppg, .222 from 3 (0.2 makes), 1.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 t.o.’s
#31 6-1 185 Jr. Donovan Theme-Love; in 9 of 11 games, 7.7 min., 1.3 ppg, .333 from 3 (0.2 makes), 1.1 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.2 t.o.’s

Front Court:
#33 6-7 250 Rs-Sr Cam Jackson; 22.3 min., 14.5 ppg, .600 from 3 (0.3 makes), 7.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.5 t.o.’s, 1.3 blocks, 1.5 steals
#24 6-9 225 So. Keve Aluma; 27.7 min., 7.9 ppg, 0 from 3, 7.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.5 t.o’s, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks
#01 6-9 225 So-Tr Chevez Goodwin; 12.3 min., 3.7 ppg, 0 from 3, 4.1 rebounds, only 1 block on the year, 0.9 t.o.’s
#15 6-5 205 Jr. Trevor Stumpe; (2 games) 20.5, 4.0 ppg, .143 from 3 (0.5 makes) 2.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists
#50 6-11 260 Sr Matt Pegram; (missed last 2 games with injury) 15.0 min., 6.9 ppg, .182 from 3 (0.2 makes), 3.8 rebounds, 0.3 blocks

What are the chances we will see Hess and Benedict? Surely not...

Battle of the bigs: last time our bigs (Jeromy, Mladen, Harrison and Bernard) got outrebounded by their bigs (Aluma, Cam Jackson, Goodwin and Pegram) 25-10. Bucs got outscored by their bigs 30 to 7. Their bigs shot 12-19. Our bigs shot 2 – 17 and 3 -10 from the free throw line.

Only 2 teams have outrebounded the Bucs all season: Illinois on the road after the travel day from hell - by 2 rebounds, 37-39. And Wofford in Spartanburg by 13, 23-36!

Battle of the guards: Patrick Good (17 points on 5-7 and 4-6 from 3, 1 steal), Pun Tisdale (18 points on 6-7 and 2-3 from 3, 2 steals) and Bo Hodges (15 points on 6-12 and -2 from 3, 2 steals) had strong nights. Tray Boyd (5 points on 2-12 and 1-8 from 3) and Daivien Williamson 1 point in only 4 minutes of playing time had rough outings. Daivien at that point had really not found his game. It wasn't till the Illinois game that he became a regular part of things.
Total for Bucs guards: 55 points
For Wofford, Fletcher Magee had 24 points, Storm Murphy 6, Nathan Hoover 9, Ryan Larson 4 and Tray Hollowell 6
Total for Wofford guards: 49 points

Be more physical and the Bucs win. Simple as that.

(02-04-2019 08:31 PM)Buc2002 Wrote: [ -> ]Be more physical and the Bucs win. Simple as that.

Yes and no. Wofford can still finesse it and readily beat the Bucs at the perimeter and foul line. That’s more what I’m worried about.

(02-04-2019 10:54 PM)shampoo Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-04-2019 08:31 PM)Buc2002 Wrote: [ -> ]Be more physical and the Bucs win. Simple as that.

Yes and no. Wofford can still finesse it and readily beat the Bucs at the perimeter and foul line. That’s more what I’m worried about.

That's traditionally what you worry about with Wofford - the shooting and perimeter game. But that's not what happened the last time around. This is a different Wofford team from any that we've seen - currently 10th in D1 in rebounding margin is no fluke. They took it right to what has been our strength - the underneath game. And beat us badly at that game. Out muscled and out hustled us like no other team that we've played this year. Only 1 other team (Illinois from the ultra physical Big Ten) has outrebounded us, and they only did it by 2. Wofford outrebounded us by 13: 36-23.

The first thing that the Bucs have got to do is re establish that inside game. Offensively and defensively.

BOTH Wofford's rebounding AND their 3 point game are near the very top of D1. ETSU guards showed that they could do pretty well against the Terrier guards. The bigs still have something to prove. Especially in light of recent play, I worry about that even more.

(02-04-2019 11:11 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-04-2019 10:54 PM)shampoo Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-04-2019 08:31 PM)Buc2002 Wrote: [ -> ]Be more physical and the Bucs win. Simple as that.

Yes and no. Wofford can still finesse it and readily beat the Bucs at the perimeter and foul line. That’s more what I’m worried about.

That's traditionally what you worry about with Wofford - the shooting and perimeter game. But that's not what happened the last time around. This is a different Wofford team from any that we've seen - currently 10th in D1 in rebounding margin is no fluke. They took it right to what has been our strength - the underneath game. And beat us badly at that game. Out muscled and out hustled us like no other team that we've played this year. Only 1 other team (Illinois from the ultra physical Big Ten) has outrebounded us, and they only did it by 2. Wofford outrebounded us by 13: 36-23.

The first thing that the Bucs have got to do is re establish that inside game. Offensively and defensively.

BOTH Wofford's rebounding AND their 3 point game are near the very top of D1. ETSU guards showed that they could do pretty well against the Terrier guards. The bigs still have something to prove. Especially in light of recent play, I worry about that even more.

Exactly … this is a different Wofford team than those of the past. In many ways, they have been the SoCon's version of Belmont prior to this year, running structured offensive sets that rely on outside scoring while being generally sound in all other areas. But their strength inside has been the difference for them this year. It's that added dimension that gave the Bucs trouble the first time around and was the key to the Terriers win.

I hear you both! It’s just my worry the Bucs will move from the frying pan (post/rebounding) into the fire (3 pt shooting, freethrows). I wager that winning the battle in the post is only enough to make the game competitive. Before I count on the Bucs to win it shooting, if it goes that route, I’d expect to get Terrierized from deep. I suspect whichever team has the hot hands will end up neutralizing the big game.

(02-05-2019 01:42 PM)shampoo Wrote: [ -> ]I’d expect to get Terrierized from deep.

(02-05-2019 01:42 PM)shampoo Wrote: [ -> ]I hear you both! It’s just my worry the Bucs will move from the frying pan (post/rebounding) into the fire (3 pt shooting, freethrows). I wager that winning the battle in the post is only enough to make the game competitive. Before I count on the Bucs to win it shooting, if it goes that route, I’d expect to get Terrierized from deep. I suspect whichever team has the hot hands will end up neutralizing the big game.

Yes, that's a real danger here that no prior Wofford team could pose: a powerful inside game as a counterweight to the usual excellent outside game. You can't concentrate too much on one and ignore the other - how many times did we get whipsawed by Belmont that way?

But the more I think about it, neither thing is my real worry.

We've got the horses that we should be able to match up inside - even though we didn't come close to doing that last time. Lucas N'Guessan should help some with that.

And we showed last time that we could indeed match up with the guards. Without getting any of the help that Daivien now regularly provides, and with Tray Boyd having a major off night.

My concern is the experience and confidence that Wofford has from a long time playing together. They know their roles down deep and know what they can do together. The only new guys are 13 minute role players Chevez Goodwin (and he played with them all last year on the practice squad) and freshman Ryan Larson. Whereas except for two Sophomores, Mladen Armus and Bo Hodges, the Bucs are ALL new to each other.

The Bucs are still learning this. We'll see Thursday how far we've come to date.

(02-05-2019 01:42 PM)shampoo Wrote: [ -> ]I hear you both! It’s just my worry the Bucs will move from the frying pan (post/rebounding) into the fire (3 pt shooting, freethrows). I wager that winning the battle in the post is only enough to make the game competitive. Before I count on the Bucs to win it shooting, if it goes that route, I’d expect to get Terrierized from deep. I suspect whichever team has the hot hands will end up neutralizing the big game.

This. ^^^^
And "Terrierized" is a great one. Wonder if anyone associated with their program has grabbed that. If not, claim that moniker and monetize it!

All that said...…………

All warfare is based on deception.

Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. (Not sure how that translates into 3-ball action.)

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.

If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him.

If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them.

Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

-- Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"

Making me wonder...……………...is this a case for something totally unprepared for? Start Bernard, Harrison, Tucker, Harick, Curtis? (Just brainstorming.) Go 1-3-1 zone trap from the jump? I don't know what - I'm just wondering if some surprises may pay dividends...…..

[And no, I know that's not Forbes's way of doing things.)

I agree with the Doctor, I would love to see Forbes throw something unexpected at Wofford. Something that they can't combat. Something that makes them change tactics in the middle of the first half, and then change again. We have the talent to accomplish this. But it might be a disaster only if not monitored closely. Crazy thinking for Forbes but I hope we have the right game plan for this game....Go Bucs !!!

You can't start changing everything you have worked on the entire season. It would put the players in unfamiliar situations and would most likely be a disaster.

Coaches can always, and do, make changes on the way they guard a player or make minor changes in their defensive and offensive schemes to try and take advantage of the opponents weakness, but to make wholesale changes, no way.

Gimmicky schemes may work for a couple of possessions but opposing coaches will quickly expose them.

The Bucs and Wofford have good players and excellent coaching staffs. Whoever executes the best wins the game.

(02-05-2019 06:50 PM)Buc76 Wrote: [ -> ]You can't start changing everything you have worked on the entire season. It would put the players in unfamiliar situations and would most likely be a disaster.

Coaches can always, and do, make changes on the way they guard a player or make minor changes in their defensive and offensive schemes to try and take advantage of the opponents weakness, but to make wholesale changes, no way.

Gimmicky schemes may work for a couple of possessions but opposing coaches will quickly expose them.

The Bucs and Wofford have good players and excellent coaching staffs. Whoever executes the best wins the game.

Well said.

(02-05-2019 06:50 PM)Buc76 Wrote: [ -> ]You can't start changing everything you have worked on the entire season. It would put the players in unfamiliar situations and would most likely be a disaster.

Coaches can always, and do, make changes on the way they guard a player or make minor changes in their defensive and offensive schemes to try and take advantage of the opponents weakness, but to make wholesale changes, no way.

Gimmicky schemes may work for a couple of possessions but opposing coaches will quickly expose them.

The Bucs and Wofford have good players and excellent coaching staffs. Whoever executes the best wins the game.

Yes, of course. I wasn't suggesting we throw all the 'normal' game-plan stuff out the window. Only throwing a few wrinkles to possibly set them on their heels for a possession or two - every once in a while. And at the same time, I don't think Forbes would come close to thinking along the extreme (like starting a wholly unexpected line-up) lines. It's more thinking outside the box a little to try and close the gap. What gap? Unlike swvabucsfan...………...I think they're (as well as UNC-G) better than us right now. Which doesn't necessarily mean they'll win. I think it'll come down to what shampoo said: ".....whichever team has the hot hands.....".

I don't think Forbes or his staff took their 2 isolation plays for Boyd from my suggestion last week - but they did it - and they worked. Do I think they actually read that and implemented it from this board? Of course not. But it did seem slightly eerie watching it two (consecutive?) trips down the floor. But yes, "gimmicky plays" DO work for a play or two - or sometimes a few more than that spaced out over the game. Stuff like going zone, or box-and-one, 1-3-1 trap, playing Bernard, etc. Those things work precisely because they take the other team by surprise. And yes, good coaches, like we have here, can quickly react to those things and adapt to the negative aspects those things 'give' - like the baseline in a 1-3-1, for example.

Like we do on here, I was just having some fun - altho I don't think Sun Tzu's concepts are completely useless on a basketball court.

Sun Tzu and basketball

Basketball and the Art of War

No, I haven't read those books, and am not pushing them for some reason. I *do* know that many great basketball minds have thought about the game from Sun Tzu's angles

Again I agree with the Doctor, to beat a good Wofford team we should not be transparent. They should not be ready for our game plan, we should change a few plays to hit their weaknesses. That's all I'm saying.....We need to play to our strengths, a simple plan but in a hectic basketball game it's hard to control. But it's time we beat a team ranked higher than us. Go Bucs !!!

(02-04-2019 11:01 AM)BucDoctor Wrote: [ -> ]What are the chances we will see Hess and Benedict? Surely not...

It's a big important game for us and the conference, so only about 1,000%.

(02-07-2019 09:31 AM)Buc Island Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-04-2019 11:01 AM)BucDoctor Wrote: [ -> ]What are the chances we will see Hess and Benedict? Surely not...

It's a big important game for us and the conference, so only about 1,000%.

But don't we want to go for the full troika, and have Teddy, too?

If you listened to the call-in show on Monday, Forbes said we had a different game plan than last time. Of course, he wasn't specific about it, but hinted at being able to defend ball screens much better than we did. Pegram is a big missing piece for Wofford, especially if we can get Jackson into foul trouble. I'm also wondering if we may press a little, and put Armus & Luke in there at the same time.

I know this will be the best crowd of the year and that most of our seats are sold out, but I continue to be confused as to why this isn't already a sell out. Hopefully everyone will be loud the entire game!