01-27-2019, 03:41 PM
It’s worth noting that at the half way mark last year ETSU was 10-0 and playing the best basketball in the SoCon, while UNCG was 7-2 and had lost to a weak Chattanooga team. It didn’t end up that way, so don’t take the current standings as the final word.
The SoCon now rates 12th among all conferences in Kenpom’s rankings, just behind the A10 and Mountain West, but ahead of the Missouri Valley and the WAC.
9-0 Wofford, 17-4 overall, #39 Kenpom
17th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 114th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play Kenpom rates them 1st in Offensive Efficiency by a wide margin and 2nd in Defensive Efficiency in a virtual tie with 1st place UNCG. First in conference in 2 point % (58.4% to ETSU's 57.5%) and a close 2nd to Samford in 3 point % (.401 to .417 with 9.7 makes). Last few games they've struggled at home against Furman 59-54, should have lost at home in OT to Samford, and struggled a bit at Chattanooga.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 1st in SoCon at 16-2.
8-1 UNCG, 19-3 overall, #94
One of 2 SoCon teams (Chattanooga is the other) punching above their weight and defeating teams that rate higher by Kenpom’s stats (ETSU and Furman). Lost only to Wofford.
121st in D1 in adjusted Offense and 94th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play Kenpom rates them 1st in Defensive Efficiency and 5th in Offensive Efficiency. They lead the conference in Steals (9.4 to Furman’s 8.1 and ETSU’s 7.9) and with a terrific Turnover Margin of +6.33, 1st in all D1 (Wofford has +2.89 in conference and is 41st in D1). They are last in 3 points made at 7.6, but even Angelo Allegri can bury them if you leave him open. Rebounding margin has fallen off to -0.6 in conference. Last year they significantly stepped up their defense and overall play the last half of conference, and notched it up again in tournament play.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 2nd in SoCon at 14-4.
7-2 ETSU, 17-5 overall, #64
Has the dubious distinction of ranking a bit below what their Kenpom analysis (and their talent) would predict. They’ve lost to the 2 teams (Wofford and UNCG) that may have equal or slightly less talent, but a lot more experience playing together as a team.
106th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 56th(!) in adjusted Defense.
In conference play Kenpom rates them 2nd in Offensive Efficiency, but 3rd in Defensive Efficiency. 1st in conference play in 2 point% Defense, but 4th in 3 point% Defense – add them up and the Bucs are still 1st in overall FG% Defense at .437, barely ahead of Furman at .438. It would seem that conference opponents have been a bit more effective in attacking the Bucs, especially from 3, than OOC opponents. In conference the Bucs lead in rebounding margin, but only barely, with +9.1 over Wofford’s +8.7 and Western Carolina’s +4.4. That is more significant than their continuing D1 lead. ETSU also leads the SoCon in assists with 16.7 to Wofford’s 16.0, and in blocked shots (+9.1 to Wofford’s +8.7). Weakest stats in conference are Turnover Margin (6th at dead even 0.00) and, of course, Free Throw % (dead last at .636).
Next up is a real challenge: on the road at Samford, who just notched a road win over Furman and should have had one in their OT game at Wofford.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 3rd in SoCon at 13-5.
5-4 Furman, 16-5 overall, #92
Rates higher than UNCG by the stats measures: but isn’t playing like that on the floor in the SoCon. Less physical, younger (starting a Freshman and two Sophomores) and with a thinner bench than Wofford, UNCG and ETSU.
140th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 74th in adjusted Defense. In conference play 6th in the SoCon in Offensive Efficiency and 4th in Defensive Efficiency. First in SoCon 3 point % Defense with .319.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 4th in SoCon at 11-7.
5-4 Chattanooga, 10-12 overall, #244
Playing the farthest above their Kenpom rating. They’ve lost to the consensus top 4 teams, but have beaten everybody else.
Only 233rd in D1 in adjusted Offense and 256th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 7th in Offensive Efficiency and 5th in Defensive Efficiency.
Kenpom’s projected finish: in a 3 way tie for 5th at 8-10.
3-6 Samford, 13-9 overall, #141
Coming off a road win at Furman and what should have been a road win in OT at Wofford, an OT loss at ETSU and a home squeaker loss against UNCG. Only 5 solid players, but is there a more dangerous team in the SoCon?
87th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 197th in adjusted Defense. In conference play, 3rd in Offensive Efficiency and 7th in Defensive Efficiency. SoCon leader in 3 point% at .417 (Wofford is 2nd with .401) and Free Throw % at .757.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 3 way tie for 5th at 8-10.
3-6 Mercer, 8-13 overall, #162
They play everybody close, something that has become traditional for Bob Hoffman teams.
135th in adjusted Offense and 194th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 4th in Offensive Efficiency and 6th in Defensive Efficiency.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 3 way tie for 5th at 8-10.
2-7 The Citadel, 10-10 overall, #231
A disappointing conference start after an 8-3 OOC beginning against a fairly weak schedule. Don’t forget that this team had a much better second half of conference play last year, knocking off teams like ETSU that had been lulled to sleep by their poor early showing.
109th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 331st in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 9th in Offensive Efficiency (despite their high scoring) and 9th in Defensive Efficiency. Perhaps the conference foes have been more ready for their freakish offensive approach than the OOC opponents.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 8th at 5-13.
2-7 Western Carolina, 5-17 overall, #295
259th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 303rd in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 8th in Offensive Efficiency and 8th in Defensive Efficiency.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 9th at 4-14.
1-8 VMI, 7-14 overall, #313
Playing tougher than they have any right to. Likely to cash in on an upset or two.
254th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 325th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 10th in Offensive Efficiency and 10th in Defensive Efficiency.
Kenpom’s projected finish: last at 3-15.
The SoCon now rates 12th among all conferences in Kenpom’s rankings, just behind the A10 and Mountain West, but ahead of the Missouri Valley and the WAC.
9-0 Wofford, 17-4 overall, #39 Kenpom
17th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 114th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play Kenpom rates them 1st in Offensive Efficiency by a wide margin and 2nd in Defensive Efficiency in a virtual tie with 1st place UNCG. First in conference in 2 point % (58.4% to ETSU's 57.5%) and a close 2nd to Samford in 3 point % (.401 to .417 with 9.7 makes). Last few games they've struggled at home against Furman 59-54, should have lost at home in OT to Samford, and struggled a bit at Chattanooga.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 1st in SoCon at 16-2.
8-1 UNCG, 19-3 overall, #94
One of 2 SoCon teams (Chattanooga is the other) punching above their weight and defeating teams that rate higher by Kenpom’s stats (ETSU and Furman). Lost only to Wofford.
121st in D1 in adjusted Offense and 94th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play Kenpom rates them 1st in Defensive Efficiency and 5th in Offensive Efficiency. They lead the conference in Steals (9.4 to Furman’s 8.1 and ETSU’s 7.9) and with a terrific Turnover Margin of +6.33, 1st in all D1 (Wofford has +2.89 in conference and is 41st in D1). They are last in 3 points made at 7.6, but even Angelo Allegri can bury them if you leave him open. Rebounding margin has fallen off to -0.6 in conference. Last year they significantly stepped up their defense and overall play the last half of conference, and notched it up again in tournament play.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 2nd in SoCon at 14-4.
7-2 ETSU, 17-5 overall, #64
Has the dubious distinction of ranking a bit below what their Kenpom analysis (and their talent) would predict. They’ve lost to the 2 teams (Wofford and UNCG) that may have equal or slightly less talent, but a lot more experience playing together as a team.
106th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 56th(!) in adjusted Defense.
In conference play Kenpom rates them 2nd in Offensive Efficiency, but 3rd in Defensive Efficiency. 1st in conference play in 2 point% Defense, but 4th in 3 point% Defense – add them up and the Bucs are still 1st in overall FG% Defense at .437, barely ahead of Furman at .438. It would seem that conference opponents have been a bit more effective in attacking the Bucs, especially from 3, than OOC opponents. In conference the Bucs lead in rebounding margin, but only barely, with +9.1 over Wofford’s +8.7 and Western Carolina’s +4.4. That is more significant than their continuing D1 lead. ETSU also leads the SoCon in assists with 16.7 to Wofford’s 16.0, and in blocked shots (+9.1 to Wofford’s +8.7). Weakest stats in conference are Turnover Margin (6th at dead even 0.00) and, of course, Free Throw % (dead last at .636).
Next up is a real challenge: on the road at Samford, who just notched a road win over Furman and should have had one in their OT game at Wofford.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 3rd in SoCon at 13-5.
5-4 Furman, 16-5 overall, #92
Rates higher than UNCG by the stats measures: but isn’t playing like that on the floor in the SoCon. Less physical, younger (starting a Freshman and two Sophomores) and with a thinner bench than Wofford, UNCG and ETSU.
140th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 74th in adjusted Defense. In conference play 6th in the SoCon in Offensive Efficiency and 4th in Defensive Efficiency. First in SoCon 3 point % Defense with .319.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 4th in SoCon at 11-7.
5-4 Chattanooga, 10-12 overall, #244
Playing the farthest above their Kenpom rating. They’ve lost to the consensus top 4 teams, but have beaten everybody else.
Only 233rd in D1 in adjusted Offense and 256th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 7th in Offensive Efficiency and 5th in Defensive Efficiency.
Kenpom’s projected finish: in a 3 way tie for 5th at 8-10.
3-6 Samford, 13-9 overall, #141
Coming off a road win at Furman and what should have been a road win in OT at Wofford, an OT loss at ETSU and a home squeaker loss against UNCG. Only 5 solid players, but is there a more dangerous team in the SoCon?
87th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 197th in adjusted Defense. In conference play, 3rd in Offensive Efficiency and 7th in Defensive Efficiency. SoCon leader in 3 point% at .417 (Wofford is 2nd with .401) and Free Throw % at .757.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 3 way tie for 5th at 8-10.
3-6 Mercer, 8-13 overall, #162
They play everybody close, something that has become traditional for Bob Hoffman teams.
135th in adjusted Offense and 194th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 4th in Offensive Efficiency and 6th in Defensive Efficiency.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 3 way tie for 5th at 8-10.
2-7 The Citadel, 10-10 overall, #231
A disappointing conference start after an 8-3 OOC beginning against a fairly weak schedule. Don’t forget that this team had a much better second half of conference play last year, knocking off teams like ETSU that had been lulled to sleep by their poor early showing.
109th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 331st in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 9th in Offensive Efficiency (despite their high scoring) and 9th in Defensive Efficiency. Perhaps the conference foes have been more ready for their freakish offensive approach than the OOC opponents.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 8th at 5-13.
2-7 Western Carolina, 5-17 overall, #295
259th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 303rd in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 8th in Offensive Efficiency and 8th in Defensive Efficiency.
Kenpom’s projected finish: 9th at 4-14.
1-8 VMI, 7-14 overall, #313
Playing tougher than they have any right to. Likely to cash in on an upset or two.
254th in D1 in adjusted Offense and 325th in adjusted Defense.
In conference play 10th in Offensive Efficiency and 10th in Defensive Efficiency.
Kenpom’s projected finish: last at 3-15.