Season Summary:
Q1 - 1-1 (5 games remaining)
Q2 - 1-1 (5 games remaining)
Q3 - 7-1 (3 games remaining)
Q4 - 6-0 (0 games remaining)
The Details :
Opponent, NET Ranking, Quadrant, Result
Ohio St, 35, Q2, L
NC Central, 325, Q4, W
Milw, 297, Q4, W
West Mich, 236, Q4, W
George Mason(N), 142, Q3, W
Mississippi(N), 28, Q1, W
Ark PB, 304, Q4, W
@UNLV, 148, Q3, W
NKU, 116, Q3, W
Xavier, 80, Q3, W
@missSt, 33, Q1, L
UCLA, 91, Q3, W
SC State, 337, Q4, W
Tulane, 302, Q4, W
@ECU, 221, Q3, L
@Tulsa, 111, Q2, W
Uconn, 88, Q3, W
USF, 97, Q3, W
Remaining games:
@Wichita 125 Q2
Tulsa 111 Q3
@Temp 45 Q1
SMU 108 Q3
@Mem 74 Q1
@Hou 8 Q1
Wichita 125 Q3
UCF 32 Q2
@Uconn 88 Q2
@SMU 108 Q2
Memp 74 Q2
@UCF 32 Q1
Hou 8 Q1
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.
It would be helpful if UCLA and Xavier could get into the top 75 (though I hope Xavier doesn't)...
I'm hoping ECU stays in the top 240 to avoid that being a Q4 loss. Makes it a tad less ugly. A tad.
(01-16-2019 02:44 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]It would be helpful if UCLA and Xavier could get into the top 75 (though I hope Xavier doesn't)...
UNLV as well can become a 2.
So using our current Net Ranking of 35 - we would project out to be around 25-6 before conference tourney play. The only way we'd possibly be one of the last 4 in (according to Palm) is if we lost in the opening round of the conf. tourney, then that would be 3 consecutive losses to end the season at 25-7.
(01-17-2019 11:37 AM)scvanguard1 Wrote: [ -> ]So using our current Net Ranking of 35 - we would project out to be around 25-6 before conference tourney play. The only way we'd possibly be one of the last 4 in (according to Palm) is if we lost in the opening round of the conf. tourney, then that would be 3 consecutive losses to end the season at 25-7.
kenpom has UC projected to lose 3 more times (though as the favorite in all but two games). That would be 12-6 in league, 23-8 overall.
(01-17-2019 11:41 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2019 11:37 AM)scvanguard1 Wrote: [ -> ]So using our current Net Ranking of 35 - we would project out to be around 25-6 before conference tourney play. The only way we'd possibly be one of the last 4 in (according to Palm) is if we lost in the opening round of the conf. tourney, then that would be 3 consecutive losses to end the season at 25-7.
kenpom has UC projected to lose 3 more times (though as the favorite in all but two games). That would be 12-6 in league, 23-8 overall.
But if we are 15-3 now and only get 3 more losses, how do we become 23-8?
*Edit - I think I see what you are saying. You're saying 3 more losses besides the 2 that we are not favorites in, thus making us 8-5 in our remaining games for a 23-8 mark.
Sounds like kenpom has us losing all of the remaining Q1 games...
In our last four games we have lost to ECU, ot with mediocre Tulsa and UConn and struggled mightily to beat USF, double digit losses are coming. 22-10 after conf.tourney.
24-7 was my preseason pick. I haven’t seen anything to change it. 22-9 and 26-5 are upper and lower ranges.
(01-17-2019 12:34 PM)scvanguard1 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2019 11:41 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2019 11:37 AM)scvanguard1 Wrote: [ -> ]So using our current Net Ranking of 35 - we would project out to be around 25-6 before conference tourney play. The only way we'd possibly be one of the last 4 in (according to Palm) is if we lost in the opening round of the conf. tourney, then that would be 3 consecutive losses to end the season at 25-7.
kenpom has UC projected to lose 3 more times (though as the favorite in all but two games). That would be 12-6 in league, 23-8 overall.
But if we are 15-3 now and only get 3 more losses, how do we become 23-8?
*Edit - I think I see what you are saying. You're saying 3 more losses besides the 2 that we are not favorites in, thus making us 8-5 in our remaining games for a 23-8 mark.
Sounds like kenpom has us losing all of the remaining Q1 games...
Yea sorry I just reread and the way I said it is confusing. I meant 3 more times than the 2 where we are projected underdogs. 9 games we are between 35% and 70% to win... Combine those with 4 other games where we are between 80-86% and he projects 5 more losses total. I'll take the under on that, but get the numbers.
(01-16-2019 04:53 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-16-2019 02:44 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]It would be helpful if UCLA and Xavier could get into the top 75 (though I hope Xavier doesn't)...
UNLV as well can become a 2.
No help there last night
UNLV (9-7, 3-1 MW) 88
Air Force(7-10, 2-3 MW) 106
UNLV drops to #160
Who would have thought a pair of teams from Mississippi might turn out to be our best out of conference opponents?
I think we believed NKU might be a tournament team early this year but it seems they've fallen back too. Of course UCLA may win the rapidly declining Pac 12!
(01-17-2019 01:44 PM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ]Who would have thought a pair of teams from Mississippi might turn out to be our best out of conference opponents?
I think we believed NKU might be a tournament team early this year but it seems they've fallen back too. Of course UCLA may win the rapidly declining Pac 12!
NKU hasn't fallen back - they're 14-4, 4-1. They just haven't beaten the few quality opponents (us, UCF) they've played. They're still favored to come out of a poor Horizon Conference.
(01-17-2019 01:49 PM)geef Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2019 01:44 PM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ]Who would have thought a pair of teams from Mississippi might turn out to be our best out of conference opponents?
I think we believed NKU might be a tournament team early this year but it seems they've fallen back too. Of course UCLA may win the rapidly declining Pac 12!
NKU hasn't fallen back - they're 14-4, 4-1. They just haven't beaten the few quality opponents (us, UCF) they've played. They're still favored to come out of a poor Horizon Conference.
Yea, that comment confused me as well. NKU is good and is the favorite to win the Horizon again.
(01-17-2019 01:49 PM)geef Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2019 01:44 PM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ]Who would have thought a pair of teams from Mississippi might turn out to be our best out of conference opponents?
I think we believed NKU might be a tournament team early this year but it seems they've fallen back too. Of course UCLA may win the rapidly declining Pac 12!
NKU hasn't fallen back - they're 14-4, 4-1. They just haven't beaten the few quality opponents (us, UCF) they've played. They're still favored to come out of a poor Horizon Conference.
Not that it helps a lot but NC Cental and Pine Bluff will be at or near the top thier leagues. Either one could grab an automatic bid. George Mason looks like an upper level team in the A10, right behind the top grouping.
Eh I say we just win them all and grab another 2 seed!
We have a much tougher end of the season stretch than I originally expected. Great to see!
(01-17-2019 01:53 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2019 01:49 PM)geef Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2019 01:44 PM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ]Who would have thought a pair of teams from Mississippi might turn out to be our best out of conference opponents?
I think we believed NKU might be a tournament team early this year but it seems they've fallen back too. Of course UCLA may win the rapidly declining Pac 12!
NKU hasn't fallen back - they're 14-4, 4-1. They just haven't beaten the few quality opponents (us, UCF) they've played. They're still favored to come out of a poor Horizon Conference.
Yea, that comment confused me as well. NKU is good and is the favorite to win the Horizon again.
No disrepect meant to NKU; they just have to thread a very narrow needle to get that one bid and be an NCAA Tournament team with the nature of conference tournaments. That adds a large element of unpredictability as to whether they'll remain a UC win over a potential NCAA participant. Here's hoping they win out...I view our cross-river rival more charitably than the one crosstown.
I think the last two conference games and our performance in the conf. tourney is going to be a HUGE determining factor on where we wind up.
(01-17-2019 02:18 PM)scvanguard1 Wrote: [ -> ]I think the last two conference games and our performance in the conf. tourney is going to be a HUGE determining factor on where we wind up.
I see us getting a home game.
(01-17-2019 01:44 PM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ]Who would have thought a pair of teams from Mississippi might turn out to be our best out of conference opponents?
I think we believed NKU might be a tournament team early this year but it seems they've fallen back too. Of course UCLA may win the rapidly declining Pac 12!
Mississippi State does not surprise me, but Ole Miss surely does.
I said before the season, that Miss State would be tougher than any of the OSU, X, and UCLA games everyone was looking forward to.