CSNbbs

Coming out today. Here's the easy to understand formula:

so to me it looks like
50% Team Value Index
25% Net Efficiency
25% Winning Pct, Adj Win Pct, Scoring margin.

capping scoring margin at 10 is dumb. Big difference between scoring at the buzzer to win by 10 vs dominating the game and winning by 35.

(11-26-2018 11:48 AM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote: [ -> ]capping scoring margin at 10 is dumb. Big difference between scoring at the buzzer to win by 10 vs dominating the game and winning by 35.

Good way to bake in an advantage into the formula for the P5. Anyone who thinks that thrust wasn’t considered in this new metric is kidding themselves.

and they are out
Houston 18
Cincy 46
UCF 49
UConn 57
Temple 79
USF 123
Wichita 132
SMU 168
Tulsa 179
Memphis 189
Tulane 200
ECU 242

(11-26-2018 12:06 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and they are out
Houston 18
Cincy 46
UCF 49
UConn 57
Temple 79
USF 123
Wichita 132
SMU 168
Tulsa 179
Memphis 189
Tulane 200
ECU 242

wichita and memphis fans aren't going to like this

(11-26-2018 12:12 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-26-2018 12:06 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and they are out
Houston 18
Cincy 46
UCF 49
UConn 57
Temple 79
USF 123
Wichita 132
SMU 168
Tulsa 179
Memphis 189
Tulane 200
ECU 242

wichita and memphis fans aren't going to like this

It’s November

Is this a new system? Because that’s what was missing another way to boil stats. Any such system setup needs to be asked: what’s the point? For example in football Sagarin is a predictive rating system; Colley is a performance rating system. For basketball RPI is performance, KenPom is predictive. The problem with predictive is it’s still fortune telling because no one can see the future. The problem with performance based systems is when the season is still young the sample size and opponent quality is still unknown.

Looks like we need to put the NET rankings back into the oven to finish cooking for a few more weeks.

Loyola-Marymount - 10
Belmont - 12
Radford - 22
San Francisco - 25
Georgia Southern - 26
Buffalo - 30

I'll take it!

Thing is you look at it- we're already about 1/5 of the way thru the season... Already gotten 1160 games of the season done- and we go up to right around 5700 for the season.

Things will normalize over the next few weeks.

Not nearly enough DATA to judge this thing yet. There is at least some predictive element to it. There is a large performance component. It seems much more difficult to game than the RPI. RPI was only 1/4 performance based (and a poor measure of performance at that as it was just w/l record waited for home/road/neutral) and was 3/4 schedule based (using the same poor measure for schedule). At least there is something to this.

I'd rather they group by kenpom then discuss resumes based on actually performance against the schedule. Or used a statistically supported performance measure such as Strength of Record, but this can't be worse than RPI.

(11-26-2018 12:12 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-26-2018 12:06 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and they are out
Houston 18
Cincy 46
UCF 49
UConn 57
Temple 79
USF 123
Wichita 132
SMU 168
Tulsa 179
Memphis 189
Tulane 200
ECU 242

wichita and memphis fans aren't going to like this

Doesn't bother me at all considering the recruiting class we have coming in in 2019. Penny just had a few weeks to put together the 2018 class. We presently have two starting guards who are both freshman and both under 6 ft.

So will there be a live updated to the minute version (like KenPom/realtimeRPI) or is the NCAA just releasing the rankings on a weekly basis?

(11-26-2018 12:57 PM)HuskyU Wrote: [ -> ]So will there be a live updated to the minute version (like KenPom/realtimeRPI) or is the NCAA just releasing the rankings on a weekly basis?

I think i heard it'll be updated daily from here on.

1 thing saw said is that the rating looks to overvalue road games. So this week- Temple has a huge shot with games at Missouri and St Joe's.

(11-26-2018 12:12 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-26-2018 12:06 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and they are out
Houston 18
Cincy 46
UCF 49
UConn 57
Temple 79
USF 123
Wichita 132
SMU 168
Tulsa 179
Memphis 189
Tulane 200
ECU 242

wichita and memphis fans aren't going to like this

Enjoy it while you can.

(11-26-2018 12:35 PM)SHOCK_value Wrote: [ -> ]Looks like we need to put the NET rankings back into the oven to finish cooking for a few more weeks.

Loyola-Marymount - 10
Belmont - 12
Radford - 22
San Francisco - 25
Georgia Southern - 26
Buffalo - 30

If you look at ESPN Strength of Record / RPI which heavily weight strength of schedule and do not weight margin of victory:

Loyola - 11 / 4
Belmont - 26 / 22
Radford - 54 / 10
San Fran - 37 / 96
Ga Southern - 31 / 2
Buffalo - 6 / 46

The new NET best resembles a cross between a predictive formula and the old RPI or SOR.

And as you say, it's too early for RPI to matter. Let's see where things stand in January.

(11-26-2018 01:03 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-26-2018 12:12 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-26-2018 12:06 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and they are out
Houston 18
Cincy 46
UCF 49
UConn 57
Temple 79
USF 123
Wichita 132
SMU 168
Tulsa 179
Memphis 189
Tulane 200
ECU 242

wichita and memphis fans aren't going to like this

Enjoy it while you can.

after this year we'll be battling with usf and ezu for league worst, so we are enjoying it while we can

(11-26-2018 12:12 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-26-2018 12:06 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and they are out
Houston 18
Cincy 46
UCF 49
UConn 57
Temple 79
USF 123
Wichita 132
SMU 168
Tulsa 179
Memphis 189
Tulane 200
ECU 242

wichita and memphis fans aren't going to like this

We are 3-3 with one good win and 1 bad loss .. Seems about right ...