11-18-2018, 11:59 AM
Next year I'll try to remember to do this sooner, but:
Anyone feel like arguing over what an 8-team playoff race would look like?
Imagine we had an 8-team playoff setup, with 5 P5 autobids plus one G5 autobid, with 2 "at-large" bids.
What does the "at-large" race look like? For the likely conference champs, what are their chances of getting an at-large if they stumble?
Current Champ-Designates: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Oklahoma, Washington State, plus UCF
Current At-Larges: Notre Dame, Georgia. Right now, if you seed the bracket, these are the two highest ranked non-champs.
Possible At-Larges: LSU. Ranked #7, with a win over #5 Georgia. The SEC Championship Game could easily knock Georgia below LSU.
Alabama. #1, and won the title last year as an "at-large." Easy to see Alabama losing to Auburn or Georgia and still being the highest-ranked non-champion, or second-highest along with Notre DAme.
Clemson. If Clemson stumbles, do they fall below Georgia/LSU? Maybe, maybe not. Possible at-large.
Notre Dame At 11-1 with a screwy loss to USC and a win over Big Ten champ Michigan, Notre Dame is probably in good shape, but not a shoo-in.
Michigan. Losing to Ohio State or Northwestern puts them in a very bad position.
Georgia The SEC title game will make or break them. If they lose by 30 to Alabama, I think they're out.
Oklahoma, Washington State, UCF No margin for error--if they aren't conference champs, they're out.
Anyone feel like arguing over what an 8-team playoff race would look like?
Imagine we had an 8-team playoff setup, with 5 P5 autobids plus one G5 autobid, with 2 "at-large" bids.
What does the "at-large" race look like? For the likely conference champs, what are their chances of getting an at-large if they stumble?
Current Champ-Designates: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Oklahoma, Washington State, plus UCF
Current At-Larges: Notre Dame, Georgia. Right now, if you seed the bracket, these are the two highest ranked non-champs.
Possible At-Larges: LSU. Ranked #7, with a win over #5 Georgia. The SEC Championship Game could easily knock Georgia below LSU.
Alabama. #1, and won the title last year as an "at-large." Easy to see Alabama losing to Auburn or Georgia and still being the highest-ranked non-champion, or second-highest along with Notre DAme.
Clemson. If Clemson stumbles, do they fall below Georgia/LSU? Maybe, maybe not. Possible at-large.
Notre Dame At 11-1 with a screwy loss to USC and a win over Big Ten champ Michigan, Notre Dame is probably in good shape, but not a shoo-in.
Michigan. Losing to Ohio State or Northwestern puts them in a very bad position.
Georgia The SEC title game will make or break them. If they lose by 30 to Alabama, I think they're out.
Oklahoma, Washington State, UCF No margin for error--if they aren't conference champs, they're out.