Because I love looking at this stuff, here are the scenarios for the 3 West contenders going into the 2nd to last week of the regular season, along with odds (using ESPN FPI) of each occurring. Enjoy.
ULM (controls destiny):
Wins West with:
1. Wins over Arkansas State and Louisiana
OR
2. Win over Arkansas State AND Louisiana loss to South Alabama
OR
3. Win over Louisiana AND Arkansas State loss to Texas State
Odds: 21.29%
Louisiana (controls destiny):
Wins West with:
1. Wins over South Alabama and ULM
OR
2. Win over ULM AND ULM loss to Arkansas State AND Arkansas State loss to Texas State
Note: Louisiana wins the only possible 3-way tie at 4-4 by virtue of wins over ULM and Arkansas State
Odds: 38.89%
Arkansas State:
Wins West with:
1. Wins over ULM and Texas State AND Louisiana loss to South Alabama or ULM
Odds: 39.82%
Note 1: No West team can host the SBC Championship. Game will be played in Troy or Boone.
Note 2: Interesting that the only team which does not control its destiny is actually favored to come out of the West according to FPI
Note 3: ULM can clinch the West this weekend with a win over Arkansas State and a Louisiana loss to South Alabama, but only has a 3.57% chance of this occurring
I think there is still a possibility where ULM can host but a very long shot.
Troy loses to App and Texas State
App loses to Georgia State
ULM wins out.
It will go to the computer and App should hold the better ranking, but still a shot.
(11-13-2018 11:41 AM)warhawk09 Wrote: [ -> ]I think there is still a possibility where ULM can host but a very long shot.
Troy loses to App and Texas State
App loses to Georgia State
ULM wins out.
It will go to the computer and App should hold the better ranking, but still a shot.
True. You would actually also need a Georgia Southern loss to Coastal or Georgia State for that scenario to send a 6-2 App to the title game (Troy wins a 3-way tie, but App would win a 2-way tie with Troy). Like you said though, I think App wins a computer ranking comparison over ULM even with the loss to Georgia State.
ULM is losing 2 in a row so it won’t matter.
The Cajuns and stAte are winning out.
(11-13-2018 01:32 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]ULM is losing 2 in a row so it won’t matter.
The Cajuns and stAte are winning out.
I don't know. Marcus Green scares the daylights out of me.
(11-13-2018 01:32 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]ULM is losing 2 in a row so it won’t matter.
The Cajuns and stAte are winning out.
It won't matter??? Come on, man. All my hard work and it won't matter?
#ScenariosMatter
Psst. See you in Boone.
(11-13-2018 02:12 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 01:32 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]ULM is losing 2 in a row so it won’t matter.
The Cajuns and stAte are winning out.
It won't matter??? Come on, man. All my hard work and it won't matter?
#ScenariosMatter
I want to win the West but my gut tells me A-State beats ULM and ULM beats the Cajuns sending A-State to the title game and all is well in the West.
Psst. See you in Boone.
(11-13-2018 01:55 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 01:32 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]ULM is losing 2 in a row so it won’t matter.
The Cajuns and stAte are winning out.
I don't know. Marcus Green scares the daylights out of me.
Evans playing out his mind right now too. Remember what I have said, we go as far as Evans takes us. He is going to want to show out in a head to head with Hansen. Gonna be some game.
(11-13-2018 07:34 PM)Arrowhead Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 01:55 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 01:32 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]ULM is losing 2 in a row so it won’t matter.
The Cajuns and stAte are winning out.
I don't know. Marcus Green scares the daylights out of me.
Evans playing out his mind right now too. Remember what I have said, we go as far as Evans takes us. He is going to want to show out in a head to head with Hansen. Gonna be some game.
Cajuns have won the last 8 in not so Funroe.
And we won the last game against you which is more relevant. Our D is light year’s better as well.
(11-13-2018 08:18 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 07:34 PM)Arrowhead Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 01:55 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 01:32 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]ULM is losing 2 in a row so it won’t matter.
The Cajuns and stAte are winning out.
I don't know. Marcus Green scares the daylights out of me.
Evans playing out his mind right now too. Remember what I have said, we go as far as Evans takes us. He is going to want to show out in a head to head with Hansen. Gonna be some game.
Cajuns have won the last 8 in not so Funroe.
What does a game 10 years ago have to do with this year?
(11-13-2018 09:45 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]We shall see won’t we?
No, we won't. If ULL were to win, it would have ZERO to do with what happened in the previous eight games at Malone.
(11-14-2018 12:17 AM)warhawk09 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 09:45 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]We shall see won’t we?
No, we won't. If ULL were to win, it would have ZERO to do with what happened in the previous eight games at Malone.
Tell that to stAte who has won once in Lafayette in the past 15 or 20 games there. They have obviously been better than the Cajuns several times during that timespan only to come to Lafayette and lose.
An 8 game losing streak on your home turf is something. Whether you want to admit it or not. Come next Saturday if the Cajuns play well and the Warhawks play well the Cajuns win.
I disagree. I think if we both play up to our capabilities ULM wins rather easily. ULM defense is playing really well and offense is clicking.
(11-13-2018 07:34 PM)Arrowhead Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 01:55 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 01:32 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]ULM is losing 2 in a row so it won’t matter.
The Cajuns and stAte are winning out.
I don't know. Marcus Green scares the daylights out of me.
Evans playing out his mind right now too. Remember what I have said, we go as far as Evans takes us. He is going to want to show out in a head to head with Hansen. Gonna be some game.
The quarterback that makes the fewest mistakes will win the game.
(11-14-2018 08:51 AM)Arrowhead Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree. I think if we both play up to our capabilities ULM wins rather easily. ULM defense is playing really well and offense is clicking.
You beat Georgia Southern and South Alabama. Southern was coming off of an emotional high against App and ULM's offense seems to be kryptonite for the App State style of defense.
History isn't on your side this week and Arkansas State appears to be ramping things up after being left for dead.
(11-14-2018 06:14 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ] (11-14-2018 12:17 AM)warhawk09 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2018 09:45 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote: [ -> ]We shall see won’t we?
No, we won't. If ULL were to win, it would have ZERO to do with what happened in the previous eight games at Malone.
Tell that to stAte who has won once in Lafayette in the past 15 or 20 games there. They have obviously been better than the Cajuns several times during that timespan only to come to Lafayette and lose.
An 8 game losing streak on your home turf is something. Whether you want to admit it or not. Come next Saturday if the Cajuns play well and the Warhawks play well the Cajuns win.
I agree with you here. All three of our programs have been playing each other forever, and there's a weird streak with each series. It's just sort of the way this 3 way rivalry works. AState has beaten ULM 8 straight times, which is almost certainly going to factor somewhere in the game Saturday. Ditto for next week when the Louisiana schools play. If anything, it gives one side confidence that they can get a win, while another feels like they are fighting history a bit.
You can't convince me that it won't creep into the minds of ULM's players Saturday if AState was to open a decent sized lead.
Very rationale argument and the trends are very interesting. I don’t know which of the 3 of us are better, but I sure as heck am looking forward to finding out! It is nice feeling like we made a good hire in Viator and feeling like this ship just might have turned around. Cheers to the next few weeks Cajuns and Woofs.