I am not going to take a political side here. We certainly don't need 7,000 central Americans showing up at the same time at our doorstep and requesting asylum. 1: Because international law requires we have to process their request and grant them a hearing. 2: There's already a backlog of asylum cases, and people requesting asylum are admitted temporarily till their case is heard. And 3. It already takes a lengthy amount of time to cross the Mexican border because of the paperwork and searches. A group of 7,000 might take days to process, which would lead to unnecessary clashes with the National Guard and Border Patrol and unnecessary injuries to both sides.
What I am fascinated by though is situation and trip itself.
By car, it is roughly a 12 hour drive from San Pedro Sula to the closest Mexican Border checkpoint in Tapachula. Its 677KM, and requires crossing through Guatemala, for a fair portion of the trek. Google Maps estimates it would take 142 hours to walk that distance, but that's only if every single member of the Caravan is super human. Given stops and starts, (and border crossings) It will take close to 2 weeks to complete the journey. (Caravan just crossed into Mexico today) I don't have the numbers yet, but my wild guess is probably half of the 7K either stopped in Guatemala, turned back, or worse died during the trip.
Looking at a map, the closest border crossing to Tapachula is in Brownsville, TX. Pretending that no one will take the less legal route and cross somewhere in the desert, it makes the most sense to take that route. It's mostly along the Gulf Coast, and bypasses most large cities. The actual trip is 2,430 KM. It would take a cyborg 498 hours (Just less than 21 days) to complete the trip. Given normal people have to rest, we're probably looking at the group reaching the US in early December. Given Mexico is promising grant asylum to many in the group, it's fair to guess that a decent sized portion will never even attempt to reach the US. Undoubtedly, they have family somewhere in Mexico and places they can settle. I'd guess only a quarter of the group currently in Mexico currently plans to reach the US. About half of that quarter probably won't make it.
So in total
It is 3,107 KM from Brownsville to San Pedro Sula. The walking trip without stopping regularly is over 600 hours. Statistically of the 7K or so who left Honduras close to 85-90 percent will never reach the US. Probably 5-10 percent will actually die attempting the trip.
Which leads to a question. How Screwed up must Honduras be for people to actually think its safer to walk 3,000 freaking kilometers to the US than stay where they were previously?
(10-30-2018 12:30 AM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ]Which leads to a question. How Screwed up must Honduras be for people to actually think its safer to walk 3,000 freaking kilometers to the US than stay where they were previously?
and against an american leader with such a strong stance on the issue
Yup, good points by the OP. I've read it's mostly women and children in the caravan too. I feel sorry for them, not us.
And yet every single broadcast from embedded reporters shows that it's mostly young men. Try again. As of last night the caravan appears to have been reduced by about 40%, down to about 4,000 with 800 miles still remaining. I'm sure you saw them tearing down a fence at the Mexican border, throwing rocks and bottles at border guards and looking like ANTIFA South with their faces covered. These are the people the left wants to welcome into our home country. I'd bet not a one of them would invite any of these people into their own homes.
Much farther north on Monday, near the Hidalgo border crossing along Mexico’s border with Arizona, Mexico's Interior Department said in a statement that two Hondurans ages 17 and 22 were arrested when one of them tried to shoot at police in the town of Ignacio Zaragoza. It said the Glock failed to fire, and no agents were injured.
Supposedly the group's numbers have fallen off from around 7000 initially to 4000 now. Like the OP said, given the time/distance remaining, no doubt those numbers will drop drastically again by the time the group reaches the US border. https://www.today.com/video/migrant-cara...5?v=raila&
Trump knows that, so he has to work his followers up in to a false fear frenzy now to make sure they think there's an invasion prior to Nov. 6. Numbers game, indeed.
(10-30-2018 12:30 AM)chiefsfan Wrote: [ -> ]I am not going to take a political side here. We certainly don't need 7,000 central Americans showing up at the same time at our doorstep and requesting asylum. 1: Because international law requires we have to process their request and grant them a hearing. 2: There's already a backlog of asylum cases, and people requesting asylum are admitted temporarily till their case is heard. And 3. It already takes a lengthy amount of time to cross the Mexican border because of the paperwork and searches. A group of 7,000 might take days to process, which would lead to unnecessary clashes with the National Guard and Border Patrol and unnecessary injuries to both sides.
What I am fascinated by though is situation and trip itself.
By car, it is roughly a 12 hour drive from San Pedro Sula to the closest Mexican Border checkpoint in Tapachula. Its 677KM, and requires crossing through Guatemala, for a fair portion of the trek. Google Maps estimates it would take 142 hours to walk that distance, but that's only if every single member of the Caravan is super human. Given stops and starts, (and border crossings) It will take close to 2 weeks to complete the journey. (Caravan just crossed into Mexico today) I don't have the numbers yet, but my wild guess is probably half of the 7K either stopped in Guatemala, turned back, or worse died during the trip.
Looking at a map, the closest border crossing to Tapachula is in Brownsville, TX. Pretending that no one will take the less legal route and cross somewhere in the desert, it makes the most sense to take that route. It's mostly along the Gulf Coast, and bypasses most large cities. The actual trip is 2,430 KM. It would take a cyborg 498 hours (Just less than 21 days) to complete the trip. Given normal people have to rest, we're probably looking at the group reaching the US in early December. Given Mexico is promising grant asylum to many in the group, it's fair to guess that a decent sized portion will never even attempt to reach the US. Undoubtedly, they have family somewhere in Mexico and places they can settle. I'd guess only a quarter of the group currently in Mexico currently plans to reach the US. About half of that quarter probably won't make it.
So in total
It is 3,107 KM from Brownsville to San Pedro Sula. The walking trip without stopping regularly is over 600 hours. Statistically of the 7K or so who left Honduras close to 85-90 percent will never reach the US. Probably 5-10 percent will actually die attempting the trip.
Which leads to a question. How Screwed up must Honduras be for people to actually think its safer to walk 3,000 freaking kilometers to the US than stay where they were previously?
They never walk the entire distance. Most hook up with smugglers who help them with transportation. They get to somewhere near Mexico city they hop on a train that heads north. Lots of them fall off of the train and get a leg chopped off.
With this large caravan a bunch of truckers have picked them up at various places.
(10-30-2018 11:30 AM)tigergreen Wrote: [ -> ]Supposedly the group's numbers have fallen off from around 7000 initially to 4000 now. Like the OP said, given the time/distance remaining, no doubt those numbers will drop drastically again by the time the group reaches the US border. https://www.today.com/video/migrant-cara...5?v=raila&
Trump knows that, so he has to work his followers up in to a false frenzy now to make sure they think there's an invasion prior to Nov. 6. Numbers game, indeed.
(10-30-2018 11:30 AM)tigergreen Wrote: [ -> ]Supposedly the group's numbers have fallen off from around 7000 initially to 4000 now. Like the OP said, given the time/distance remaining, no doubt those numbers will drop drastically again by the time the group reaches the US border. https://www.today.com/video/migrant-cara...5?v=raila&
Trump knows that, so he has to work his followers up in to a false frenzy now to make sure they think there's an invasion prior to Nov. 6. Numbers game, indeed.
What the US needs is a representative to give these illegals the real scoop. Those people think that they'll just be let in but don't know that the US is ready to inter them into tent cities and rightly so. What right do they have in just coming in at their will? None. The US must tell them the truth about the tent city and if you and I know it it'll be just like being incarcerated until their case comes up and God only knows how long it'll be before they are let in or not.
I understand that Mexico offered asylum and the big majority refused it so that is not the issue that they profess is bringing them into the US. If any of them tells the US officials that they are here because of it then "vamonos," back to their home country because they were offered asylum and they refused it and that is the only proof we need to send them back.
(10-30-2018 12:16 PM)olliebaba Wrote: [ -> ]What the US needs is a representative to give these illegals the real scoop. Those people think that they'll just be let in but don't know that the US is ready to inter them into tent cities and rightly so. What right do they have in just coming in at their will? None. The US must tell them the truth about the tent city and if you and I know it it'll be just like being incarcerated until their case comes up and God only knows how long it'll be before they are let in or not.
I understand that Mexico offered asylum and the big majority refused it so that is not the issue that they profess is bringing them into the US. If any of them tells the US officials that they are here because of it then "vamonos," back to their home country because they were offered asylum and they refused it and that is the only proof we need to send them back.
That should be a staple item to no catch and release, big large tent cities fema like camps. No more catch and release. USA can quickly add tens of thousands of beds vs. traditional bricks and mortar.
![[Image: mexico-caravan-1-gty-jt-181021_hpMain_4x3_992.jpg]](https://s.abcnews.com/images/International/mexico-caravan-1-gty-jt-181021_hpMain_4x3_992.jpg)