http://www.zagsblog.com/2018/10/13/st-jo...ip-waiver/
Seems like it deserves its own thread. By adding another junior all-conference-caliber guard St. John's is solidly in the territory where it
should be a tournament team this year. Little bit of crunch time for Mullin here - sure, they're short on big man depth, but they have the kind of perimeter talent where not at least making the tournament would be an unequivocal disappointment (cue Stever's strength of schedule spiel, which is admittedly valid).
You're right, there's no excuses if Mullin doesn't do something special with this group. If you want to look at talent plus experience, you can make the argument they should be as good as anyone in the league. Villanova has a lot of new pieces, and I don't see anyone else with the same level of talent as the Johnnies.
The schedule should have been better. They need to run the table OOC with the exception of Duke. Also I'm not that worried about needing another big man. All the guards rebound pretty well, and they force turnovers, they should be okay there. Anyway, the season will be here before you know it, and we'll see how things shake out.
It's going to be really interesting to see. Their OOC schedule is such that 20 wins might not if not probably won't be enough for a NCAA spot. They have an inexcusably weak OOC schedule. Really don't get what Mullin was thinking there. Although I think him and Ewing both are thinking that conference play only should be enough to get you in. It might have been like that in the early 80's- but it's just not the case at all whatsoever. Between conference challenges and exempt tournaments alone- not to mention other OOC games- you have to challenge yourself OOC. See Creighton and Marquette just a few years ago as prime examples. Marquette won 20 games and didn't even make the NIT, and Creighton won 18 and was a 4 seed in the NIT. You can't schedule like crap and make the tourney if you don't have a 21-22 win season at least..
(10-14-2018 01:17 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]It's going to be really interesting to see. Their OOC schedule is such that 20 wins might not if not probably won't be enough for a NCAA spot. They have an inexcusably weak OOC schedule. Really don't get what Mullin was thinking there. Although I think him and Ewing both are thinking that conference play only should be enough to get you in. It might have been like that in the early 80's- but it's just not the case at all whatsoever. Between conference challenges and exempt tournaments alone- not to mention other OOC games- you have to challenge yourself OOC. See Creighton and Marquette just a few years ago as prime examples. Marquette won 20 games and didn't even make the NIT, and Creighton won 18 and was a 4 seed in the NIT. You can't schedule like crap and make the tourney if you don't have a 21-22 win season at least..
Georgetown and St John's are in two entirely different places - last year's Georgetown team simply wasn't all that good, so no amount of OOC scheduling would have helped them. I actually agree that when you know you're not going to be very good regardless it's better to lighten up the schedule so that you're trying to recruit kids to a .500ish squad instead of posting a single-digit-win season. The tournament wasn't a consideration for them at all, it was just about rebuilding - they did a pretty decent job of it too, grabbing a pair of four-star recruits and poaching NC State's starting center via transfer.
St John's has what should be a legitimately good squad full of upperclassmen. They just should have scheduled better, because now they're relying on a very strong conference showing.
Regardless of their scheduling, St. Johns being competitive and near the top of the Big East is excellent for the growth of the conference. Great addition for Mullin and the program.
(10-14-2018 01:38 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: [ -> ]Regardless of their scheduling, St. Johns being competitive and near the top of the Big East is excellent for the growth of the conference. Great addition for Mullin and the program.
But what is important is St John's actually making the tourney. That's when casual fans actually notice college basketball. It's really insane how poor the schedule is. Where even if they do make it, for them to get a top 5-6 seed, they're going to have to win 24 or 25 games.
(10-14-2018 11:38 AM)Bogg Wrote: [ -> ] (10-14-2018 01:17 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]It's going to be really interesting to see. Their OOC schedule is such that 20 wins might not if not probably won't be enough for a NCAA spot. They have an inexcusably weak OOC schedule. Really don't get what Mullin was thinking there. Although I think him and Ewing both are thinking that conference play only should be enough to get you in. It might have been like that in the early 80's- but it's just not the case at all whatsoever. Between conference challenges and exempt tournaments alone- not to mention other OOC games- you have to challenge yourself OOC. See Creighton and Marquette just a few years ago as prime examples. Marquette won 20 games and didn't even make the NIT, and Creighton won 18 and was a 4 seed in the NIT. You can't schedule like crap and make the tourney if you don't have a 21-22 win season at least..
Georgetown and St John's are in two entirely different places - last year's Georgetown team simply wasn't all that good, so no amount of OOC scheduling would have helped them. I actually agree that when you know you're not going to be very good regardless it's better to lighten up the schedule so that you're trying to recruit kids to a .500ish squad instead of posting a single-digit-win season. The tournament wasn't a consideration for them at all, it was just about rebuilding - they did a pretty decent job of it too, grabbing a pair of four-star recruits and poaching NC State's starting center via transfer.
St John's has what should be a legitimately good squad full of upperclassmen. They just should have scheduled better, because now they're relying on a very strong conference showing.
these are the comments that Ewing had:
“The Big East schedule is going to be tough enough to handle,” Ewing said in a meeting last month with Washington Post reporters and editors. “It’s always been tough. It was tough when I was playing. So, you know, you don’t have to play the toughest nonconference schedule. It’s all about where you end up at the end. . . . Do the best job that we can in the Big East and let the chips fall where they may. And hopefully we’ll be able to be in the NCAAs and do our work there.”
NCAA Selection Committee is now rewarding wins of 10+ points, plus looking at efficiency numbers. Good guard play means ballhandling and turnover numbers will tend to be good. And the NCAA is also now including a special sauce. These new factors will help St John's if they blow out their weak opponents.
(10-14-2018 11:38 PM)billyjack Wrote: [ -> ]NCAA Selection Committee is now rewarding wins of 10+ points, plus looking at efficiency numbers. Good guard play means ballhandling and turnover numbers will tend to be good. And the NCAA is also now including a special sauce. These new factors will help St John's if they blow out their weak opponents.
I think for playing poor opponents- the 10+ point wins would mean more that they won't get docked than getting a bonus.
It would be kind of similar to Ken Pom. Last year for example, Providence beat Brown by 5 in Overtime. They entered the game at #39. Their next game they entered at #46. The 10+ point thing is for playing bad teams going to be more of a punishment. Looking at St John's last year they beat Sacred Heart by 35 points. Entered game at #49, and next game they entered at #47.
Also the quadrant system is still in place. The only game that will be a tier 1 game will be the Duke game. Only ones that have any shot of being tier 2(top 100 neutral) will be Cal, VCU/Temple, and Ga Tech.
Also would note that Strenth of Schedule AND OOC Strength of Schedule is still an official component of the selection process.
So, in a span of just a few short weeks, the argument went from "I doubt Heron will be declared eligible" to "Despite reports being declared eligible, it is fascinating Heron's eligibility is not confirmed" to "Well, their OOC schedule is awful, even with Heron, it will be difficult for them to make the tournament" to "They will need to win 24 or 25 games just to be a top 5/6 seed".
St. John's will be fine with their roster. I am already looking forward to the Big East Tournament in March, especially one with a top-level Big East squad for the Johnnies, which will only continue to elevate and grow the perception of the conference even more.
(10-14-2018 02:48 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-14-2018 11:38 AM)Bogg Wrote: [ -> ] (10-14-2018 01:17 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]It's going to be really interesting to see. Their OOC schedule is such that 20 wins might not if not probably won't be enough for a NCAA spot. They have an inexcusably weak OOC schedule. Really don't get what Mullin was thinking there. Although I think him and Ewing both are thinking that conference play only should be enough to get you in. It might have been like that in the early 80's- but it's just not the case at all whatsoever. Between conference challenges and exempt tournaments alone- not to mention other OOC games- you have to challenge yourself OOC. See Creighton and Marquette just a few years ago as prime examples. Marquette won 20 games and didn't even make the NIT, and Creighton won 18 and was a 4 seed in the NIT. You can't schedule like crap and make the tourney if you don't have a 21-22 win season at least..
Georgetown and St John's are in two entirely different places - last year's Georgetown team simply wasn't all that good, so no amount of OOC scheduling would have helped them. I actually agree that when you know you're not going to be very good regardless it's better to lighten up the schedule so that you're trying to recruit kids to a .500ish squad instead of posting a single-digit-win season. The tournament wasn't a consideration for them at all, it was just about rebuilding - they did a pretty decent job of it too, grabbing a pair of four-star recruits and poaching NC State's starting center via transfer.
St John's has what should be a legitimately good squad full of upperclassmen. They just should have scheduled better, because now they're relying on a very strong conference showing.
these are the comments that Ewing had:
“The Big East schedule is going to be tough enough to handle,” Ewing said in a meeting last month with Washington Post reporters and editors. “It’s always been tough. It was tough when I was playing. So, you know, you don’t have to play the toughest nonconference schedule. It’s all about where you end up at the end. . . . Do the best job that we can in the Big East and let the chips fall where they may. And hopefully we’ll be able to be in the NCAAs and do our work there.”
What else is a first-year coach supposed to say in a media session? He can't very well kick off his entire tenure by publicly stating that he doesn't think his players are all that great and doesn't want them to embarrass themselves. Don't put too much weight on coachspeak, the majority to media sessions are just the guy trying to get out of there without generatong any headlines.
(10-15-2018 08:40 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: [ -> ]So, in a span of just a few short weeks, the argument went from "I doubt Heron will be declared eligible" to "Despite reports being declared eligible, it is fascinating Heron's eligibility is not confirmed" to "Well, their OOC schedule is awful, even with Heron, it will be difficult for them to make the tournament" to "They will need to win 24 or 25 games just to be a top 5/6 seed".
St. John's will be fine with their roster. I am already looking forward to the Big East Tournament in March, especially one with a top-level Big East squad for the Johnnies, which will only continue to elevate and grow the perception of the conference even more.
The thing is- no matter how they do, it's going to haunt them come tourney time. If they have 18-19 wins- it's going to cost them any shot at the tourney. If they have 20-21 wins- it's going to be putting the firm on the bubble. If they have 22-23 wins- they'll get in but their seed will suffer.....
(10-15-2018 08:50 AM)Bogg Wrote: [ -> ] (10-14-2018 02:48 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-14-2018 11:38 AM)Bogg Wrote: [ -> ] (10-14-2018 01:17 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]It's going to be really interesting to see. Their OOC schedule is such that 20 wins might not if not probably won't be enough for a NCAA spot. They have an inexcusably weak OOC schedule. Really don't get what Mullin was thinking there. Although I think him and Ewing both are thinking that conference play only should be enough to get you in. It might have been like that in the early 80's- but it's just not the case at all whatsoever. Between conference challenges and exempt tournaments alone- not to mention other OOC games- you have to challenge yourself OOC. See Creighton and Marquette just a few years ago as prime examples. Marquette won 20 games and didn't even make the NIT, and Creighton won 18 and was a 4 seed in the NIT. You can't schedule like crap and make the tourney if you don't have a 21-22 win season at least..
Georgetown and St John's are in two entirely different places - last year's Georgetown team simply wasn't all that good, so no amount of OOC scheduling would have helped them. I actually agree that when you know you're not going to be very good regardless it's better to lighten up the schedule so that you're trying to recruit kids to a .500ish squad instead of posting a single-digit-win season. The tournament wasn't a consideration for them at all, it was just about rebuilding - they did a pretty decent job of it too, grabbing a pair of four-star recruits and poaching NC State's starting center via transfer.
St John's has what should be a legitimately good squad full of upperclassmen. They just should have scheduled better, because now they're relying on a very strong conference showing.
these are the comments that Ewing had:
“The Big East schedule is going to be tough enough to handle,” Ewing said in a meeting last month with Washington Post reporters and editors. “It’s always been tough. It was tough when I was playing. So, you know, you don’t have to play the toughest nonconference schedule. It’s all about where you end up at the end. . . . Do the best job that we can in the Big East and let the chips fall where they may. And hopefully we’ll be able to be in the NCAAs and do our work there.”
What else is a first-year coach supposed to say in a media session? He can't very well kick off his entire tenure by publicly stating that he doesn't think his players are all that great and doesn't want them to embarrass themselves. Don't put too much weight on coachspeak, the majority to media sessions are just the guy trying to get out of there without generatong any headlines.
Well the schedule this year when he isn't a first year coach isn't exactly great either. Until we see him with a real OOC schedule- it's tough to not look at that quote and think that's what he actually believes.
(10-15-2018 11:56 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Well the schedule this year when he isn't a first year coach isn't exactly great either. Until we see him with a real OOC schedule- it's tough to not look at that quote and think that's what he actually believes.
If they're still scheduling like that when they're expected to have an NCAA-caliber team then it'll be a good indication they don't take OOC scheduling seriously. They're still rebuilding right now and no amount of scheduling is going to make them a tourney team, so I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from their schedule beyond not wanting to finish too far below .500 in any season.
(10-15-2018 12:34 PM)Bogg Wrote: [ -> ] (10-15-2018 11:56 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Well the schedule this year when he isn't a first year coach isn't exactly great either. Until we see him with a real OOC schedule- it's tough to not look at that quote and think that's what he actually believes.
If they're still scheduling like that when they're expected to have an NCAA-caliber team then it'll be a good indication they don't take OOC scheduling seriously. They're still rebuilding right now and no amount of scheduling is going to make them a tourney team, so I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from their schedule beyond not wanting to finish too far below .500 in any season.
well his coach in college John Thompson didn't exactly have tough schedules much. A lot of St Leo's and Hawaii Hilo's in there.