CSNbbs

The knowledable weather dudes and babes, what are you guys thinking?

This is the 5am update. I'm not sure how often they update it on Sunday's, perhaps 11am will be next. Looks like a NC landfall as Cat 3 or 4.

Here are the models. Much more certainty now with the path than a few days ago.

The purple line is the american model, the orange line is the euro. The euro has been more accurate lately.

There is a high pressure ridge that is supposed to build over PA. According to one guy I follow, if Flo comes in as predicted, it will get trapped under that ridge and bounce around NC for days, causing "devastating and historic" flooding for NC, VA, WMD and WV.

The map he posted (I think it was elements of the Euro) showed Flo coming in SNC and making it to around Roanoke Rapids, then regressing to Winston-Salem for the weekend. If so, Charlotte game will prob be rescheduled.

He is a complete douche, but is generally on-target in a business where it is tough to be so.

(09-09-2018 09:02 AM)odu09 Wrote: [ -> ]Here are the models. Much more certainty now with the path than a few days ago.

The purple line is the american model, the orange line is the euro. The euro has been more accurate lately.

The black line out past Bermuda is ODU football.

The main NHC updates are 5 and 11 sm/pm every day. Those are the one to watch.

I have a 1:30 flight from Newark to Charlotte on Friday afternoon. We'll see if that happens.

(09-09-2018 09:46 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-09-2018 09:02 AM)odu09 Wrote: [ -> ]Here are the models. Much more certainty now with the path than a few days ago.

The purple line is the american model, the orange line is the euro. The euro has been more accurate lately.

The black line out past Bermuda is ODU football.

LOL. "Don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." Bob Dylan

Leaving down south now. Had to get some surf in before the damage. This might get bad

Posted from mobile device. Hopefully it's coherent.

I think now less ping ponging in NC, more in VA.
max winds 140mph before landfall

EDIT: Ah, can't do .png here?

16-20" rain in Central VA

(09-09-2018 09:45 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ]There is a high pressure ridge that is supposed to build over PA. According to one guy I follow, if Flo comes in as predicted, it will get trapped under that ridge and bounce around NC for days, causing "devastating and historic" flooding for NC, VA, WMD and WV.

The map he posted (I think it was elements of the Euro) showed Flo coming in SNC and making it to around Roanoke Rapids, then regressing to Winston-Salem for the weekend. If so, Charlotte game will prob be rescheduled.

He is a complete douche, but is generally on-target in a business where it is tough to be so.

DT? Agreed to all of the above (I follow him and Capital Weather Gang, an indispensable weather resource even if you don't live in the DC metro, though obviously even more useful if you do).

Everything seems more and more focused on the Carolinas as a landfall. But what's worrying is that the NHC is VERY bullish on rapid intensification, in a way they almost never are in their forecast discussions, where they're usually conservative about changes in intensity and direction. Even though it was a tropical storm last night (now up to a minimal hurricane), they've been consistent about it peaking at 145 mph, which a weather geek on Twitter researched and said was their most dramatic intensity forecast for a non-hurricane.

A lot of bad pieces are coming into place for a very bad event for someone. Billion-dollar-plus damages, deaths and the retirement of the name Flo is looking more and more likely to the point of being almost inevitable. Pat, get to praying!

(09-09-2018 11:00 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ]I think now less ping ponging in NC, more in VA.
max winds 140mph before landfall

EDIT: Ah, can't do .png here?

16-20" rain in Central VA

I read somewhere, can't remember where now, that this could shape up to be a Camille-level rainmaker in parts of Western Virginia. That was the stuff of legends.

(09-09-2018 11:12 AM)Cyniclone Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-09-2018 11:00 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ]I think now less ping ponging in NC, more in VA.
max winds 140mph before landfall

EDIT: Ah, can't do .png here?

16-20" rain in Central VA

I read somewhere, can't remember where now, that this could shape up to be a Camille-level rainmaker in parts of Western Virginia. That was the stuff of legends.

I think that was DT, too. 16" flooded my house in VB during Matthew. I can't imagine what it'll do in the Piedmont.

(09-09-2018 09:46 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-09-2018 09:02 AM)odu09 Wrote: [ -> ]Here are the models. Much more certainty now with the path than a few days ago.

The purple line is the american model, the orange line is the euro. The euro has been more accurate lately.

The black line out past Bermuda is ODU football.

More than likely the Charlotte game will be postponed. Euro shows Hurricane Florence making landfall in Wilmington and headed to Winston-Salem Fri/Sat, trying to get around the ridge, dropping 10-20" of rain along the way.

Living in Charlotte now, this could get very nasty around here quick.

What could make this a biblical level disaster is that western VA and NC have already had 80 inches of rain this year which qualifies them as a tropical rain forest.

Regular thunderstorms cause strong flooding due to ground saturation levels.

Add 20+” of rain a 2-3 day span?

It could get Harvey in Texas level bad.

People should be evacuating inland if they live anywhere near a river.

Update from Jon Cash (formerly of WAVY):

Quote:Hurricane Florence update. I have only bad news and no good news at all. The hurricane is currently strengthening and will continue to strengthen for the upcoming days. Every one of our hurricane models that are respectable among us meteorologists is showing this as a category four hurricane or even a five as it approaches the coast. I have never seen all of these hurricane models agree on such a huge increase in hurricane speed and size in all my years as a meteorologist. In short, every variable that we would look for to predict if a hurricane will blow up into a monster is being met with this particular storm. There is now a 95% chance this storm will directly strike somewhere along the Carolina coast between Charleston South Carolina and Nags Head North Carolina. The current prediction is that it will come ashore with winds between 135mph and 150 mph with higher gusts. We can only hope that it will be weaker than that but that’s the current forecast and scientific thinking. Hurricane Hugo striking Charleston South Carolina in 1989 would be a similar type. I surveyed the damage and saw destruction like you could not believe. I do not know what part of the coast will experience this type of destruction but when the eye of the storm comes ashore, I’m sure it will be horrific. If the storm is this powerful when it comes ashore, it will have the ability to completely blow down houses that are not made of strong brick or concrete. I want to emphasize that this would occur if the storm is that strong and only in the small area where the eye comes ashore. The storm surge with such a storm could reach 10 to 15 feet above normal water levels and could easily go inland several miles depending on what part of the coast it strikes. The secondary danger that could be even worse is what I alluded to several days ago. Once the storm comes ashore it will stall for at least three or four days and this could bring such flooding to boggle the imagination and could rival the flooding of Houston last year in areas north and north west of where the center gets stuck inland. The exact location of that flooding cannot be determined until we know where the storm stalls. All areas from northern South Carolina North Carolina and Virginia (including inland spots)need to be very vigilant and watch the forecast daily. I have been a meteorologist in Virginia for almost 30 years and this very well may be the most serious threat I have seen to life and property since starting my career in 1987. Not all areas in these three states will experience what I am speaking about. We don’t know which areas yet will get slammed until we know where it I will come ashore and where it stalls out. I will update again tomorrow and I cannot take questions sorry. Do remember there is still a 5% chance that it may stall just out to sea and sit and eventually move away and there is still a chance, though not very great, that the storm is only a category two or three which would still be horrible but not catastrophic.

5am update. Still looking like southern NC landfall. Should still be prepared either way. And I highly recommend you all start looking at the source of info (nhc.noaa.gov) for everything rather than the fear-mongering people just telling you what they see on nhc.



American model (purple) still likes us. Euro model (orange) set on NC/SC border.



Majority of models are predicting Cat 4 landfall with a few at Cat 3. Note that the American model, the one projecting at us, is a Cat 3.

Was chatting with someone from Accuweather on Facebook. References to Jaquine and Harvey in Houston and it's less about wind and this things shaping up for feet of water. Like my dad said, Camille.

Both the Euro and NHC took a jog to the northeast today. If it continues, HR could be in trouble, but that's a big if.

Also, classes are cancelled starting at 1215 tmw, and a vol evac order has been issued by ODU. ODU to remain closed until Sunday. All per ODU SEES on Twitter.

(09-10-2018 04:14 PM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ]Both the Euro and NHC took a jog to the northeast today. If it continues, HR could be in trouble, but that's a big if.

Also, classes are cancelled starting at 1215 tmw, and a vol evac order has been issued by ODU. ODU to remain closed until Sunday. All per ODU SEES on Twitter.

If people evacuate, they need to do so FAR inland.

Don’t go to Richmond or jmu or anywhere in western VA. As the flooding there could be even worse!

Go up to New Jersey or NY.