Here's what worries me about Bagley. D-PIPM is a new metric, used to try to project college defensive performance to the pros. Guy only had data going back 8 years, but Bagley, and Ayton, had the worst defensive PIPMs for Top 10 drafted bigs. His offensive PIPM is awesome, but Bags will probably be a negative defender in the NBA. Also, a lot of busts in the last 8 drafts:
Don't really think Micheal Porter Jr. is realistic at #4 for the Grizz, but the way Porter's group is controlling his medical info is a red flag. If he is 100%, like they keep saying, why not distribute his medicals to anyone who wants them? From the Mizzou beat writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/m...user-share
"
A quick note on Porter Jr. In the KMOX interview, Porter Sr. said his oldest son has not yet released his medical information to NBA teams but underwent a physical by the Chicago Bulls medical team last Thursday. He’ll host a pro day this Friday in Chicago that’s open to any team that’s interested in watching him work out. The following week the teams drafting in the top 10 will have another day to see him up close and inspect his surgically repaired back. The Porters will share the Bulls’ medical report with every other NBA team, Porter Sr. said. The Bulls have the seventh overall pick."
There is no doubt he is an option, and maybe #1 option unless Doncic slips
Grizz front office will get destroyed if they take Porter and he ends up being constantly injured.
Still like Trae Young but no way the Grizzlies draft him.
Don't care what that says about Bagley defensively. He is going to be a very very good nba player.
(06-06-2018 08:04 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ]Grizz front office will get destroyed if they take Porter and he ends up being constantly injured.
They are going to get destroyed no matter who they take if said player doesn't pan out
(06-07-2018 03:55 PM)tigers0830 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-06-2018 08:04 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ]Grizz front office will get destroyed if they take Porter and he ends up being constantly injured.
They are going to get destroyed no matter who they take if said player doesn't pan out
Would be incredible to get an all-star (though probably not realistic), but you absolutely cannot whiff at 4. No Thabeet’s or Greg Oden’s please.
(06-07-2018 04:07 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-07-2018 03:55 PM)tigers0830 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-06-2018 08:04 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ]Grizz front office will get destroyed if they take Porter and he ends up being constantly injured.
They are going to get destroyed no matter who they take if said player doesn't pan out
Would be incredible to get an all-star (though probably not realistic), but you absolutely cannot whiff at 4. No Thabeet’s or Greg Oden’s please.
I completely agree. That's why if Doncic or Bagley are available at 4 the Grizzlies will have a successful 1st rd. draft pick for the first time since Conley.
If neither are available it's a crapshoot. I like Porter at 4 if neither are available over some others simply because of his ability to score. Grizz badly need a third scoring option.
JJJ would more than likely be the choice, but his offensive game is going to take a few years to develop. Same goes for Bamba.
Ok Grizz fans, let's say Ayton goes #1. And the next 7 picks in alphabetical order are Bamba, Bagley, Wendell Carter, Doncic, Jaren Jackson, Porter and Trae Young.
If you were drafting for the Grizz, in what order would you put the 7 players on your draft big board?
I think I would go Doncic, Jackson, Carter, Bagley, Bamba, Young and Porter. Happy to give reasons why, but how would your big board go?
(06-07-2018 05:07 PM)Tigx Wrote: [ -> ]Ok Grizz fans, let's say Ayton goes #1. And the next 7 picks in alphabetical order are Bamba, Bagley, Wendell Carter, Doncic, Jaren Jackson, Porter and Trae Young.
If you were drafting for the Grizz, in what order would you put the 7 players on your draft big board?
I think I would go Doncic, Jackson, Carter, Bagley, Bamba, Young and Porter. Happy to give reasons why, but how would your big board go?
Great question - it's all fluid and happening now. Michael Porter Jr's Pro Day is tomorrow. It's vital that he knocks it out of the park for the Grizz, just because..
1) Who I Want
2) What I Think Will Happen
1) Who I Want -
a) Michael Porter Jr
b) Marvin Bagley
c) Luka Doncic
2) What I Think Will Happen -
a) Michael Porter Jr
We need a superstar, not a likely All Star (Bagley), or "many scouts say he will end up the best player in this draft" (Jaren Jackson), or "the best fit right now for the Grizzlies" (Doncic)........
Wallace has to swing for the upper deck. MPJ should be his choice.
(06-07-2018 05:07 PM)Tigx Wrote: [ -> ]Ok Grizz fans, let's say Ayton goes #1. And the next 7 picks in alphabetical order are Bamba, Bagley, Wendell Carter, Doncic, Jaren Jackson, Porter and Trae Young.
If you were drafting for the Grizz, in what order would you put the 7 players on your draft big board?
I think I would go Doncic, Jackson, Carter, Bagley, Bamba, Young and Porter. Happy to give reasons why, but how would your big board go?
Doncic
Bagley (don't care about his defensive woes)
Jackson
Porter
Carter
Bamba
Young
Porter would drop way down if his back isn't right. It still worries me that his people aren't releasing the results from his physical, but his ceiling is so high if he's healthy.
So you’d draft a guy at 4 that had back surgery and won’t release his medical records?
Anyways, we usually look back at pre-draft analysis several years later and realize how wrong we were with our projections. It most certainly has happened in the past, but I’m not aware of any saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Geez, I mean the #1 pick last year somehow forgot how to shoot a basketball! Anybody have any clue what Dragan Bender is doing these days?
His comp was Porzingis or a healthy Noah. He certainly hasn’t lived up to those comparisons yet and his team is still terrible.
ESPN has apparently backed down and let the Draft Express guys post their research for free:
(06-08-2018 08:38 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ]So you’d draft a guy at 4 that had back surgery and won’t release his medical records?
Anyways, we usually look back at pre-draft analysis several years later and realize how wrong we were with our projections. It most certainly has happened in the past, but I’m not aware of any saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Geez, I mean the #1 pick last year somehow forgot how to shoot a basketball! Anybody have any clue what Dragan Bender is doing these days?
His comp was Porzingis or a healthy Noah. He certainly hasn’t lived up to those comparisons yet and his team is still terrible.
Why don't we actually wait and let Fultz play more than 14 games before calling him a bust as the #1 pick.
As for saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Embiid says hello
Also nobody, that I know of, is looking for this pick to be the savior of Grizzlies basketball. They are just wanting a guy the Grizz can build a future around
(06-07-2018 08:03 PM)k2tigers Wrote: [ -> ] (06-07-2018 05:07 PM)Tigx Wrote: [ -> ]Ok Grizz fans, let's say Ayton goes #1. And the next 7 picks in alphabetical order are Bamba, Bagley, Wendell Carter, Doncic, Jaren Jackson, Porter and Trae Young.
If you were drafting for the Grizz, in what order would you put the 7 players on your draft big board?
I think I would go Doncic, Jackson, Carter, Bagley, Bamba, Young and Porter. Happy to give reasons why, but how would your big board go?
Great question - it's all fluid and happening now. Michael Porter Jr's Pro Day is tomorrow. It's vital that he knocks it out of the park for the Grizz, just because..
1) Who I Want
2) What I Think Will Happen
1) Who I Want -
a) Michael Porter Jr
b) Marvin Bagley
c) Luka Doncic
2) What I Think Will Happen -
a) Michael Porter Jr
We need a superstar, not a likely All Star (Bagley), or "many scouts say he will end up the best player in this draft" (Jaren Jackson), or "the best fit right now for the Grizzlies" (Doncic)........
Wallace has to swing for the upper deck. MPJ should be his choice.
Well K2 if they draft MPJ, then I'll be hoping you are right.
Way I look at it, if a normal man, say a truck driver, at age 19 had to have herniated disc surgery, and doctors said he had a good chance at a normal life, he would be happy.
But MPJ gets the surgery, and his career is to play 70-90 NBA games a year for the next decade. Just seems very optimistic to think he will stay healthy.
Here's a article from instreetclothes.com from last November about Porter's surgery and prognosis:
http://instreetclothes.com/2017/11/21/un...k-surgery/
"However, a quick look through the InStreetClothes.com NBA Injury Database reveals that nearly three out of every four players to undergo disc-related surgery report additional back problems at some point during their career with several players requiring a subsequent procedure."
(06-08-2018 09:12 AM)tigers0830 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2018 08:38 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ]So you’d draft a guy at 4 that had back surgery and won’t release his medical records?
Anyways, we usually look back at pre-draft analysis several years later and realize how wrong we were with our projections. It most certainly has happened in the past, but I’m not aware of any saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Geez, I mean the #1 pick last year somehow forgot how to shoot a basketball! Anybody have any clue what Dragan Bender is doing these days?
His comp was Porzingis or a healthy Noah. He certainly hasn’t lived up to those comparisons yet and his team is still terrible.
Why don't we actually wait and let Fultz play more than 14 games before calling him a bust as the #1 pick.
As for saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Embiid says hello
Also nobody, that I know of, is looking for this pick to be the savior of Grizzlies basketball. They are just wanting a guy the Grizz can build a future around
Just trying to reset expectations. You think Philly isn’t sour at the thought that they could have had Tatum instead? There are so many examples of average top 5 players recently. Glad you could find 1 to fit your narrative. PHI has been tanking how long for this? How many guys have they whiffed on? Noel? Okafor? Now possibly Fultz? You realize Embid was drafted in 2014 and this was the first “full” year he has played?
(06-08-2018 09:28 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2018 09:12 AM)tigers0830 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2018 08:38 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ]So you’d draft a guy at 4 that had back surgery and won’t release his medical records?
Anyways, we usually look back at pre-draft analysis several years later and realize how wrong we were with our projections. It most certainly has happened in the past, but I’m not aware of any saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Geez, I mean the #1 pick last year somehow forgot how to shoot a basketball! Anybody have any clue what Dragan Bender is doing these days?
His comp was Porzingis or a healthy Noah. He certainly hasn’t lived up to those comparisons yet and his team is still terrible.
Why don't we actually wait and let Fultz play more than 14 games before calling him a bust as the #1 pick.
As for saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Embiid says hello
Also nobody, that I know of, is looking for this pick to be the savior of Grizzlies basketball. They are just wanting a guy the Grizz can build a future around
Just trying to reset expectations. You think Philly isn’t sour at the thought that they could have had Tatum instead? There are so many examples of average top 5 players recently. Glad you could find 1 to fit your narrative. PHI has been tanking how long for this? How many guys have they whiffed on? Noel? Okafor? Now possibly Fultz? You realize Embid was drafted in 2014 and this was the first “full” year he has played?
So what it's the first full year Embiid has played. He led them to the playoffs. Just because he is just now playing doesn't make him a bust.
I'm not trying to fit any narrative. I'm just pointing out to you a guy that was drafted recently (within the last 5 years) in the top 5 that is a "savior".
It takes more than one guy everyone knows that. Heck it wasn't until LeBron's 3rd season that the Cavs mad the playoffs. You eventually have to get guys around that center piece that can contribute.
Heck you could even consider Porzingis a "savior", but until the knicks change owners they are going to be bad. You could also consider Ben Simmons
Grizz need someone they can build a future around. Preferably a guy who is a gifted scorer. If Porter is healthy he can be that guy and is worth that risk. If he's not then no Grizz don't take him, but if healthy he's better than JJJ, Bamba, and Carter.
Grizzlies desperately need a 3rd scoring option/play making ability to take the pressure/load off of Mike and Marc. There are 3 guys who are worth taking at #4 that fit that. Bagley, Doncic, and a healthy MPjr
(06-08-2018 09:28 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2018 09:12 AM)tigers0830 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2018 08:38 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote: [ -> ]So you’d draft a guy at 4 that had back surgery and won’t release his medical records?
Anyways, we usually look back at pre-draft analysis several years later and realize how wrong we were with our projections. It most certainly has happened in the past, but I’m not aware of any saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Geez, I mean the #1 pick last year somehow forgot how to shoot a basketball! Anybody have any clue what Dragan Bender is doing these days?
His comp was Porzingis or a healthy Noah. He certainly hasn’t lived up to those comparisons yet and his team is still terrible.
Why don't we actually wait and let Fultz play more than 14 games before calling him a bust as the #1 pick.
As for saviors drafted in the top 5 recently. Embiid says hello
Also nobody, that I know of, is looking for this pick to be the savior of Grizzlies basketball. They are just wanting a guy the Grizz can build a future around
Just trying to reset expectations. You think Philly isn’t sour at the thought that they could have had Tatum instead? There are so many examples of average top 5 players recently. Glad you could find 1 to fit your narrative. PHI has been tanking how long for this? How many guys have they whiffed on? Noel? Okafor? Now possibly Fultz? You realize Embid was drafted in 2014 and this was the first “full” year he has played?
True, cscottl, and Philly gave Boston next year's unprotected Sacramento 1st round pick to move up the 2 slots to take Fultz.
Fultz is very athletic, but don't like it when top PGs lose a lot in college. Washington won its last game Fultz's year on Jan. 18th, lost their last 12 games straight, went 2-16 in conference, and their coach got fired. And yet Fultz still went #1.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I’m not sure where this thing is going. Generally speaking, yes a team like Memphis (with almost no free agent pull) has to swing for the fences in the draft. However, the way our team is currently built makes me question that. I doubt Mike and Marc have any desire to tank again next year. Also, you have to put a decent product on the floor (this is a business).
So as long as everyone is healthy, I don’t see us being in this position (top 10 pick) next year unless we do some wheeling and dealing and go full rebuild mode. There are a lot of scrub teams that have been scrubs for a while that have been perpetually drafting lottery picks since who knows when? Suns, SAC, Lakers, etc.