04-17-2018, 03:26 PM
Congrats Bannonites/Trumpers
https://www.axios.com/charlie-dent-retir...44d75.html
LOL - Now you guys get to try to hold this one in a special election. It was probably gone anyway in November, but.
Of the 40 resignations/retirements, lets review the important ones so far this cycle
Resignation/Retirement creates a lean Dem or likely Dem pickup opportunity
Dent - PA
McSally - AZ (running for Senate)
Schuster - PA
Royce - CA
Reichart - WA
Murphy - PA (seat already flipped to Connor Lamb)
Meehan - PA
Issa - CA
Freylighausen - NJ
Resignation/Retirement creates a true toss up seat
Trott - MI
LoBiondo - NJ (I'm being generous to the GOP here)
Resignation/Retirement creates a lean GOP from a much safer GOP seat
Smith - TX
Poe - TX
Pearce - NM (running for Governor - will lose - badly)
Tiberi - OH (special election danger too)
Ryan - WI
Ross - FL
Hansarling - TX
Franks - AZ - it feels nuts even putting this one here, as the district is very Republican, but the GOP is spending millions here
Farenthold - TX - Special election coming
Barton - TX
Senate
Sessions - AL - Seat already flipped. Thanks Bannonites
Hatch - UT - Seat is safe, but will be replaced with another nominally non-Trump supporter
Flake - His departure creates a tossup/lean Dem seat. Thanks Trump
Corker - This seat is at worst for the Dems, a tossup right now. And this just shouldn't be the case. Thanks Trump/Bannon for forcing him out.
----
A few thoughts so far. Six of the House seats likely to flip as of right now, are held by moderate Republicans not facing scandals that have been basically forced out or too appalled to run again. That's 25% of the seats need to take control. Thanks GOPers.
The GOPers retiring/resigning from marginal seats are generally not doing so to run for higher office (only 2 are - and one is unlikely to win, the other is slightly behind/tied).
In the Senate, Trump and Bannon have messed things up - badly. Had they rallied around Luther in Alabama, not forced out Corker, and not forced out Flake, the Dems would have ZERO chance of taking the Senate. As things stand right now, the best case scenario for the GOP is to 'hold' control being completely dependent upon Murkowski (who hates Trump) and Collins (who also hates Trump and will have to run for reelection in 2020 - watch out - she could walk the floor).
https://www.axios.com/charlie-dent-retir...44d75.html
LOL - Now you guys get to try to hold this one in a special election. It was probably gone anyway in November, but.
Of the 40 resignations/retirements, lets review the important ones so far this cycle
Resignation/Retirement creates a lean Dem or likely Dem pickup opportunity
Dent - PA
McSally - AZ (running for Senate)
Schuster - PA
Royce - CA
Reichart - WA
Murphy - PA (seat already flipped to Connor Lamb)
Meehan - PA
Issa - CA
Freylighausen - NJ
Resignation/Retirement creates a true toss up seat
Trott - MI
LoBiondo - NJ (I'm being generous to the GOP here)
Resignation/Retirement creates a lean GOP from a much safer GOP seat
Smith - TX
Poe - TX
Pearce - NM (running for Governor - will lose - badly)
Tiberi - OH (special election danger too)
Ryan - WI
Ross - FL
Hansarling - TX
Franks - AZ - it feels nuts even putting this one here, as the district is very Republican, but the GOP is spending millions here
Farenthold - TX - Special election coming
Barton - TX
Senate
Sessions - AL - Seat already flipped. Thanks Bannonites
Hatch - UT - Seat is safe, but will be replaced with another nominally non-Trump supporter
Flake - His departure creates a tossup/lean Dem seat. Thanks Trump
Corker - This seat is at worst for the Dems, a tossup right now. And this just shouldn't be the case. Thanks Trump/Bannon for forcing him out.
----
A few thoughts so far. Six of the House seats likely to flip as of right now, are held by moderate Republicans not facing scandals that have been basically forced out or too appalled to run again. That's 25% of the seats need to take control. Thanks GOPers.
The GOPers retiring/resigning from marginal seats are generally not doing so to run for higher office (only 2 are - and one is unlikely to win, the other is slightly behind/tied).
In the Senate, Trump and Bannon have messed things up - badly. Had they rallied around Luther in Alabama, not forced out Corker, and not forced out Flake, the Dems would have ZERO chance of taking the Senate. As things stand right now, the best case scenario for the GOP is to 'hold' control being completely dependent upon Murkowski (who hates Trump) and Collins (who also hates Trump and will have to run for reelection in 2020 - watch out - she could walk the floor).